XRP lost its aggregate holder cost basis, triggering panic selling.
• SOPR (7D EMA) fell from 1.16 (Jul ’25) to 0.96 (now)
• Holders are realizing significant losses
• On-chain profitability flipped negative
This setup closely resembles the Sep 2021–May 2022 phase, where SOPR plunged to a <1 range for prolonged consolidation before stabilization.

📉 http://glassno.de/3O4vYwO

At $69k, the unrealized loss in the market equals ~17% of the market cap. Current market pain echoes a similar structure seen in early May 2022.

📉 http://glassno.de/4aqd4Ik

Assuming the early October ATH marked the end of the recent bull market, this cycle saw very modest drawdowns, similar to the 2015–2017 market.

📈 http://glassno.de/3ZuY5Yr

The Week On-Chain 6, 2026
Bitcoin remains defensive in the $60k–$72k zone while overhead supply caps rallies. Treasury outflows, reactive spot volume, and cooling futures signal shallow demand.

Executive Summary
- Bitcoin remains confined between the True Market Mean (~$79.2k) and the Realized Price (~$55k), reflecting a defensive regime following the structural breakdown, with sell-side pressure continuing to be absorbed in the $60k–$72k demand corridor.

- Large supply clusters at $82k–$97k and $100k–$117k sit in unrealized loss, creating overhead resistance potential during relief rallies.

- Short-Term Holder profitability remains negative, underscoring fragile conviction among recent buyers and limiting upside follow-through.

- Digital Asset Treasury flows have flipped into synchronized net outflows, signalling broad institutional de-risking and shallow spot absorption.

- Spot volume spiked during the selloff but failed to sustain, indicating reactive participation rather than constructive accumulation.

- Perpetual futures positioning has cooled, with directional premiums compressing as leveraged traders step back and speculative momentum fades.

- Implied volatility and skew reflect persistent downside hedging demand, consistent with a defensive market posture.

- Dealer gamma and options positioning are reinforcing reactive price behaviour, keeping moves short-lived amid fragile liquidity conditions.


Read more in The Week On-Chain

The LTH Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) Heatmap maps supply density across price levels.
The recent support above $65k is anchored in the 2024 H1 accumulation range. This demand zone has absorbed recent sell pressure.
A decisive break would likely open the path toward Realized Price (~$54k).

📈http://glassno.de/4aRWHW9

The recent drop to $60k imposed drastic psychological pressure on “diamond hands,” comparable to the May 2022 LUNA crash.
In both cases, the 7D EMA of Long-Term Holder SOPR fell below 1 after trading for 1-2 years above it.
Simply put, long-term holders realized significant losses—a rare shift in conviction typically seen in deeper stages of bear markets.

📈 http://glassno.de/4qDwGys

During the first sharp leg down in NOV 2025, the market absorbed heavy sell pressure aggressively, similar to the post-LUNA & FTX crash responses.
The recent drop to $60k did see some accumulation, but it was notably weaker than the NOV 2025 bounce or the reflexive demand seen after the LUNA collapse.

📉http://glassno.de/3OgO6Uo