The #BTC capitulation metric has printed its second-largest spike in two years, highlighting a sharp escalation in forced selling.
These stress events typically coincide with accelerated de-risking and elevated volatility as market participants reset positioning.
https://glassno.de/3LSM2kJ

On Feb 04, Bitcoin’s Entity-Adjusted Realized Loss (7D-SMA) hit $889M per day, the highest daily loss realization since November 2022.

📉http://glassno.de/3Mq0ock

#Bitcoin's Yardstick has fallen to its lowest level on record, pushing valuation into an unprecedented zone. Conditions like this have rarely persisted, often marking periods where downside exhaustion meets long-term opportunity.
📉https://glassno.de/45NLi75

XRP lost its aggregate holder cost basis, triggering panic selling.
• SOPR (7D EMA) fell from 1.16 (Jul ’25) to 0.96 (now)
• Holders are realizing significant losses
• On-chain profitability flipped negative
This setup closely resembles the Sep 2021–May 2022 phase, where SOPR plunged to a <1 range for prolonged consolidation before stabilization.

📉 http://glassno.de/3O4vYwO

At $69k, the unrealized loss in the market equals ~17% of the market cap. Current market pain echoes a similar structure seen in early May 2022.

📉 http://glassno.de/4aqd4Ik

Assuming the early October ATH marked the end of the recent bull market, this cycle saw very modest drawdowns, similar to the 2015–2017 market.

📈 http://glassno.de/3ZuY5Yr

The Week On-Chain 6, 2026
Bitcoin remains defensive in the $60k–$72k zone while overhead supply caps rallies. Treasury outflows, reactive spot volume, and cooling futures signal shallow demand.

Executive Summary
- Bitcoin remains confined between the True Market Mean (~$79.2k) and the Realized Price (~$55k), reflecting a defensive regime following the structural breakdown, with sell-side pressure continuing to be absorbed in the $60k–$72k demand corridor.

- Large supply clusters at $82k–$97k and $100k–$117k sit in unrealized loss, creating overhead resistance potential during relief rallies.

- Short-Term Holder profitability remains negative, underscoring fragile conviction among recent buyers and limiting upside follow-through.

- Digital Asset Treasury flows have flipped into synchronized net outflows, signalling broad institutional de-risking and shallow spot absorption.

- Spot volume spiked during the selloff but failed to sustain, indicating reactive participation rather than constructive accumulation.

- Perpetual futures positioning has cooled, with directional premiums compressing as leveraged traders step back and speculative momentum fades.

- Implied volatility and skew reflect persistent downside hedging demand, consistent with a defensive market posture.

- Dealer gamma and options positioning are reinforcing reactive price behaviour, keeping moves short-lived amid fragile liquidity conditions.


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