The 3D-SMA of Net Realized Profit & Loss is now at –$317M/day, a regime last observed in December 2022.
Loss realization has regained control, liquidity is fading, and patience is being tested.

📉http://glassno.de/4tjaTyH

Hyperliquid positioning tells a clear story:
Traders are net short ~240 BTC. Entry heatmaps show shorts added from higher levels, plus fresh shorts opening around $75k and current prices. Meanwhile, long interest remains notably thin.

📉http://glassno.de/4avfCWF

The Week On-Chain 5, 2026
The #BTC bear market rages on as profitability resets, realised losses rise, spot demand stays weak, and leverage unwinds. Options keep pricing elevated downside risk.

Executive Summary
- BTC has confirmed a decisive breakdown, with price slipping below key structural support levels and keeping market participants firmly on the defensive.

- On-chain profitability has sharply deteriorated, with MVRV Z-Score compressing to its lowest level since Oct 2022, signalling a major reset in unrealised gains.

- Realised losses are accelerating, with sustained sell pressure suggesting many holders are being forced to exit at a loss as downside momentum persists.

- Spot volume remains structurally weak, reinforcing a demand vacuum where sell-side flows are not being met with meaningful absorption.

- Futures markets have entered a forced deleveraging phase, with the largest long liquidation spikes of the drawdown amplifying volatility and downside continuation.

- Demand from major allocators has softened materially, as ETF and treasury-linked netflows fade and fail to provide the consistent bid seen during prior expansion phases.

Options markets continue to price elevated downside risk, with volatility staying bid and skew steepening as traders pay up for protection.

- With leverage being flushed but spot demand still absent, the market remains vulnerable, and any relief rallies are likely to be corrective rather than trend-reversing.


Read more in The Week On-Chain

The #BTC capitulation metric has printed its second-largest spike in two years, highlighting a sharp escalation in forced selling.
These stress events typically coincide with accelerated de-risking and elevated volatility as market participants reset positioning.
https://glassno.de/3LSM2kJ

On Feb 04, Bitcoin’s Entity-Adjusted Realized Loss (7D-SMA) hit $889M per day, the highest daily loss realization since November 2022.

📉http://glassno.de/3Mq0ock

#Bitcoin's Yardstick has fallen to its lowest level on record, pushing valuation into an unprecedented zone. Conditions like this have rarely persisted, often marking periods where downside exhaustion meets long-term opportunity.
📉https://glassno.de/45NLi75

XRP lost its aggregate holder cost basis, triggering panic selling.
• SOPR (7D EMA) fell from 1.16 (Jul ’25) to 0.96 (now)
• Holders are realizing significant losses
• On-chain profitability flipped negative
This setup closely resembles the Sep 2021–May 2022 phase, where SOPR plunged to a <1 range for prolonged consolidation before stabilization.

📉 http://glassno.de/3O4vYwO

At $69k, the unrealized loss in the market equals ~17% of the market cap. Current market pain echoes a similar structure seen in early May 2022.

📉 http://glassno.de/4aqd4Ik

Assuming the early October ATH marked the end of the recent bull market, this cycle saw very modest drawdowns, similar to the 2015–2017 market.

📈 http://glassno.de/3ZuY5Yr

The Week On-Chain 6, 2026
Bitcoin remains defensive in the $60k–$72k zone while overhead supply caps rallies. Treasury outflows, reactive spot volume, and cooling futures signal shallow demand.

Executive Summary
- Bitcoin remains confined between the True Market Mean (~$79.2k) and the Realized Price (~$55k), reflecting a defensive regime following the structural breakdown, with sell-side pressure continuing to be absorbed in the $60k–$72k demand corridor.

- Large supply clusters at $82k–$97k and $100k–$117k sit in unrealized loss, creating overhead resistance potential during relief rallies.

- Short-Term Holder profitability remains negative, underscoring fragile conviction among recent buyers and limiting upside follow-through.

- Digital Asset Treasury flows have flipped into synchronized net outflows, signalling broad institutional de-risking and shallow spot absorption.

- Spot volume spiked during the selloff but failed to sustain, indicating reactive participation rather than constructive accumulation.

- Perpetual futures positioning has cooled, with directional premiums compressing as leveraged traders step back and speculative momentum fades.

- Implied volatility and skew reflect persistent downside hedging demand, consistent with a defensive market posture.

- Dealer gamma and options positioning are reinforcing reactive price behaviour, keeping moves short-lived amid fragile liquidity conditions.


Read more in The Week On-Chain