The Week On-Chain 3, 2026
#Bitcoin is consolidating in a low-volume regime, with easing spot pressure, light leverage, and volatility priced as short-lived rather than structural.
Executive Summary
- On-chain structure remains fragile, with price hovering around key cost-basis levels and limited confirmation of durable long-term holder conviction.
- Supply overhang persists, as recent buyers continue to face overhead resistance, constraining upside follow-through and keeping rallies vulnerable to distribution.
- Spot flows have turned more constructive, with sell-side pressure easing across major venues, though accumulation remains selective rather than aggressive.
- Corporate treasury activity is sporadic, characterised by isolated, event-driven inflows rather than coordinated accumulation, leaving corporates a marginal demand source.
- Derivatives participation remains thin, with futures volume compressed and leverage deployment subdued, reinforcing a low-engagement market regime.
- Options markets are pricing risk only at the front end, with short-dated implied volatility reacting while medium- and long-dated tenors remain anchored.
- Hedging demand briefly intensified, as reflected by a spike in the put/call volume ratio, but has since normalised, signalling tactical rather than structural risk aversion.
- Dealer gamma positioning has skewed lower, reducing mechanical support for price stability and reinforcing sensitivity to liquidity shocks.
Read more in The Week On-Chain
#Bitcoin is consolidating in a low-volume regime, with easing spot pressure, light leverage, and volatility priced as short-lived rather than structural.
Executive Summary
- On-chain structure remains fragile, with price hovering around key cost-basis levels and limited confirmation of durable long-term holder conviction.
- Supply overhang persists, as recent buyers continue to face overhead resistance, constraining upside follow-through and keeping rallies vulnerable to distribution.
- Spot flows have turned more constructive, with sell-side pressure easing across major venues, though accumulation remains selective rather than aggressive.
- Corporate treasury activity is sporadic, characterised by isolated, event-driven inflows rather than coordinated accumulation, leaving corporates a marginal demand source.
- Derivatives participation remains thin, with futures volume compressed and leverage deployment subdued, reinforcing a low-engagement market regime.
- Options markets are pricing risk only at the front end, with short-dated implied volatility reacting while medium- and long-dated tenors remain anchored.
- Hedging demand briefly intensified, as reflected by a spike in the put/call volume ratio, but has since normalised, signalling tactical rather than structural risk aversion.
- Dealer gamma positioning has skewed lower, reducing mechanical support for price stability and reinforcing sensitivity to liquidity shocks.
Read more in The Week On-Chain
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The recent attempt to move above STH-cost basis ($98.4K) was capped by sell-side pressure from 3–6 month holders, whose average cost basis sits near $112.6K.
This cohort ramped up spending into the move, realizing elevated losses and weighing on upside momentum.
📰http://glassno.de/3ZosaJ7
This cohort ramped up spending into the move, realizing elevated losses and weighing on upside momentum.
📰http://glassno.de/3ZosaJ7
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#BTC has pulled back toward $85K over the past week, with momentum softening. Spot volume remains stable but subdued, reinforcing a consolidation phase rather than a decisive trend move.
Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇
https://glassno.de/49RtNnr
Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇
https://glassno.de/49RtNnr
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The 30D-SMA of netflows for both Bitcoin and Ethereum Spot ETFs remains negative. There is no sign of renewed demand.
📉 http://glassno.de/4qipTdW
📉 http://glassno.de/4qipTdW
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Any meaningful transition back toward a strong market rally should be reflected in liquidity-sensitive indicators such as the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio (90D-SMA).
A sustained rise above ~5 has historically signalled a renewal of liquidity inflows into the market.
📉http://glassno.de/4rjg683
A sustained rise above ~5 has historically signalled a renewal of liquidity inflows into the market.
📉http://glassno.de/4rjg683
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The Week On-Chain 4, 2026
BTC is consolidating with muted volumes, as spot bid rebuilds slowly while options markets lean increasingly defensive.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoin remains pinned near key on-chain cost basis levels, where support is being tested, and conviction is required to prevent further structural weakness.
- Short-Term Holder conditions remain fragile, with any failure to reclaim key breakeven bands keeping recent buyers vulnerable to renewed sell pressure.
- Broader holder behaviour still leans defensive, suggesting this is a consolidation regime driven more by absorption than expansion.
- Liquidity remains the deciding variable, as price stability has persisted despite reduced participation, but breakout continuation still needs demand follow-through.
- Spot ETF flows are stabilising, with the 30D average drifting back toward neutral after sustained outflows, reducing mechanical sell pressure.
- Spot CVD bias is improving across venues, led by Binance, indicating marginal buy pressure is returning, though Coinbase remains comparatively steady.
- Perpetual futures leverage remains muted, with funding largely neutral and speculative positioning still cautious and easily shaken out.
- Options markets are rotating toward downside protection, with bearish skew, elevated short-dated implied volatility, and dealer gamma slipping below zero, increasing downside sensitivity.
Read more in The Week On-Chain
BTC is consolidating with muted volumes, as spot bid rebuilds slowly while options markets lean increasingly defensive.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoin remains pinned near key on-chain cost basis levels, where support is being tested, and conviction is required to prevent further structural weakness.
- Short-Term Holder conditions remain fragile, with any failure to reclaim key breakeven bands keeping recent buyers vulnerable to renewed sell pressure.
- Broader holder behaviour still leans defensive, suggesting this is a consolidation regime driven more by absorption than expansion.
- Liquidity remains the deciding variable, as price stability has persisted despite reduced participation, but breakout continuation still needs demand follow-through.
- Spot ETF flows are stabilising, with the 30D average drifting back toward neutral after sustained outflows, reducing mechanical sell pressure.
- Spot CVD bias is improving across venues, led by Binance, indicating marginal buy pressure is returning, though Coinbase remains comparatively steady.
- Perpetual futures leverage remains muted, with funding largely neutral and speculative positioning still cautious and easily shaken out.
- Options markets are rotating toward downside protection, with bearish skew, elevated short-dated implied volatility, and dealer gamma slipping below zero, increasing downside sensitivity.
Read more in The Week On-Chain
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