🔄 Update:
With the spot price trading around $86.4K, the key on-chain price models have now shifted slightly:
🔴 STH Cost Basis: $101.8K
🟡 Active Investors Mean: $87.9k
--- Spot Price: $86.4K ---
🟢True Market Mean: $81.3K
🔵 Realized Price: $56.3K
📊 http://glassno.de/3XDy2xe
With the spot price trading around $86.4K, the key on-chain price models have now shifted slightly:
🔴 STH Cost Basis: $101.8K
🟡 Active Investors Mean: $87.9k
--- Spot Price: $86.4K ---
🟢True Market Mean: $81.3K
🔵 Realized Price: $56.3K
📊 http://glassno.de/3XDy2xe
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The Week On-Chain 50, 2025
Bitcoin remains trapped in a fragile range as heavy overhead supply, rising loss realization, and fading demand cap recovery attempts. Price rejection near $93k and support near $81k define the battlefield, while spot, futures, and options positioning all point to a range-bound, time-driven market.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoin remains confined within a structurally fragile range, with recent rejection near $93k and a gradual drift lower toward $85.6k highlighting persistent overhead supply. Dense distribution between $93k–$120k continues to cap recovery attempts, while failure to reclaim the 0.75 quantile (~$95k) and the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $101.5k keeps upside momentum constrained.
- Despite sustained sell pressure, patient buyer demand has so far defended the True Market Mean near $81.3k, preventing a deeper breakdown. This balance reflects a market under time-driven stress, where rising unrealized and realized losses increase psychological pressure on investors.
- Spot demand remains selective and short-lived, with limited follow-through across major venues and no coordinated expansion in accumulation during recent pullbacks. Corporate treasury flows remain episodic, contributing to volatility but not providing consistent structural support.
- Futures markets continue to de-risk, with open interest trending lower and funding rates near neutral, signalling a lack of speculative conviction rather than forced deleveraging. Leverage is no longer driving downside, but neither is it supporting upside.
- Options markets reinforce a range-bound regime. Front-end volatility has compressed post-FOMC, downside risk remains priced but stable, and flows favour premium harvesting over directional bets, with large December expiries pinning price action into year-end.
Read more in The Week On-Chain
Bitcoin remains trapped in a fragile range as heavy overhead supply, rising loss realization, and fading demand cap recovery attempts. Price rejection near $93k and support near $81k define the battlefield, while spot, futures, and options positioning all point to a range-bound, time-driven market.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoin remains confined within a structurally fragile range, with recent rejection near $93k and a gradual drift lower toward $85.6k highlighting persistent overhead supply. Dense distribution between $93k–$120k continues to cap recovery attempts, while failure to reclaim the 0.75 quantile (~$95k) and the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $101.5k keeps upside momentum constrained.
- Despite sustained sell pressure, patient buyer demand has so far defended the True Market Mean near $81.3k, preventing a deeper breakdown. This balance reflects a market under time-driven stress, where rising unrealized and realized losses increase psychological pressure on investors.
- Spot demand remains selective and short-lived, with limited follow-through across major venues and no coordinated expansion in accumulation during recent pullbacks. Corporate treasury flows remain episodic, contributing to volatility but not providing consistent structural support.
- Futures markets continue to de-risk, with open interest trending lower and funding rates near neutral, signalling a lack of speculative conviction rather than forced deleveraging. Leverage is no longer driving downside, but neither is it supporting upside.
- Options markets reinforce a range-bound regime. Front-end volatility has compressed post-FOMC, downside risk remains priced but stable, and flows favour premium harvesting over directional bets, with large December expiries pinning price action into year-end.
Read more in The Week On-Chain
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#BTC is stabilising within the $80K–$95K range as momentum recovers and sell pressure fades. Spot liquidity is thin, open interest is rebuilding cautiously, and options markets point to near-term volatility.
Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇 https://glassno.de/4jq5QIr
Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇 https://glassno.de/4jq5QIr
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The 7D-SMA funding rate across major perpetual markets has improved modestly.
Mean funding recovered from ~0% to ~0.005%, before easing to ~0.003% over the past 24 hours.
Historically, sustained market advances tend to coincide with funding rates holding consistently above ~0.01%, suggesting current conditions remain supportive but not yet decisive.
📉 http://glassno.de/3L50Ig9
Mean funding recovered from ~0% to ~0.005%, before easing to ~0.003% over the past 24 hours.
Historically, sustained market advances tend to coincide with funding rates holding consistently above ~0.01%, suggesting current conditions remain supportive but not yet decisive.
📉 http://glassno.de/3L50Ig9
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The Week On-Chain 1, 2026
Bitcoin enters 2026 with a cleaner market structure after a major year-end reset. Profit-taking has eased, and risk appetite is cautiously rebuilding, but reclaiming key cost-basis levels remains critical for confirming sustained upside.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoin enters 2026 following a decisive drawdown and consolidation phase, with on-chain metrics indicating reduced profit-taking pressure and early signs of structural stabilization around the lower end of the current range.
- A large volume of overhead supply remains clustered across the upper range, continuing to cap breakout attempts and reinforcing the importance of key recovery thresholds being reclaimed before trend expansion can resume.
- Corporate treasury demand continues to provide stabilizing support beneath price but remains episodic rather than persistently structural.
- US spot ETF flows have begun to re-emerge following late-2025 outflows. At the same time, futures open interest has stabilized and is turning higher, reflecting early signs of renewed institutional participation and rebuilding derivatives engagement.
-The largest options open interest reset on record has cleared more than 45% of outstanding positioning, removing structural hedging constraints and providing a cleaner read on fresh risk expression.
- Implied volatility has likely bottomed, with early-year taker demand gently lifting the volatility surface while remaining near the lower bound of its recent range.
- Skew continues to normalize as put premia compress and call participation rises, while new-year options flows tilt increasingly toward calls, signalling a rotation away from defensive hedging toward upside participation.
- Dealer gamma has flipped short between $95K–$104K, mechanically reinforcing upside price movement during strength, while call premium behaviour around the $95K strike suggests patience among upside participants with limited profit-taking.
- Collectively, the market is transitioning from defensive deleveraging into selective re-risking, beginning in 2026 with a cleaner structure and renewed optionality for expansion.
Read more in The Week On-Chain
Bitcoin enters 2026 with a cleaner market structure after a major year-end reset. Profit-taking has eased, and risk appetite is cautiously rebuilding, but reclaiming key cost-basis levels remains critical for confirming sustained upside.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoin enters 2026 following a decisive drawdown and consolidation phase, with on-chain metrics indicating reduced profit-taking pressure and early signs of structural stabilization around the lower end of the current range.
- A large volume of overhead supply remains clustered across the upper range, continuing to cap breakout attempts and reinforcing the importance of key recovery thresholds being reclaimed before trend expansion can resume.
- Corporate treasury demand continues to provide stabilizing support beneath price but remains episodic rather than persistently structural.
- US spot ETF flows have begun to re-emerge following late-2025 outflows. At the same time, futures open interest has stabilized and is turning higher, reflecting early signs of renewed institutional participation and rebuilding derivatives engagement.
-The largest options open interest reset on record has cleared more than 45% of outstanding positioning, removing structural hedging constraints and providing a cleaner read on fresh risk expression.
- Implied volatility has likely bottomed, with early-year taker demand gently lifting the volatility surface while remaining near the lower bound of its recent range.
- Skew continues to normalize as put premia compress and call participation rises, while new-year options flows tilt increasingly toward calls, signalling a rotation away from defensive hedging toward upside participation.
- Dealer gamma has flipped short between $95K–$104K, mechanically reinforcing upside price movement during strength, while call premium behaviour around the $95K strike suggests patience among upside participants with limited profit-taking.
- Collectively, the market is transitioning from defensive deleveraging into selective re-risking, beginning in 2026 with a cleaner structure and renewed optionality for expansion.
Read more in The Week On-Chain
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🔄 Update:
With the spot price trading around $89.9K, the key on-chain price models have now shifted slightly:
🔴 STH Cost Basis: $98.9K
--- Spot Price: $89.9K ---
🟡 Active Investors Mean: $87.7k
🟢True Market Mean: $81.0K
🔵 Realized Price: $56.2K
📊 http://glassno.de/3XDy2xe
With the spot price trading around $89.9K, the key on-chain price models have now shifted slightly:
🔴 STH Cost Basis: $98.9K
--- Spot Price: $89.9K ---
🟡 Active Investors Mean: $87.7k
🟢True Market Mean: $81.0K
🔵 Realized Price: $56.2K
📊 http://glassno.de/3XDy2xe
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