The Week On-Chain 49, 2025
#Bitcoin is stuck in a fragile range as losses climb, LTH selling grows, and demand stays weak. ETFs, liquidity, and futures remain muted while options price short-term volatility ahead of FOMC.

Executive Summary
- Bitcoin remains in a structurally fragile range, pressured by rising unrealized losses, elevated realized loss realization, and significant profit-taking by long-term holders. Despite this, patient demand has kept price anchored above the True Market Mean.
- The market’s inability to reclaim key thresholds, particularly the 0.75 quantile and the STH Cost Basis, reflects persistent sell pressure from both recent top buyers and seasoned holders. A near-term retest of these levels is possible if seller exhaustion emerges.
- Off-chain indicators remain weak. ETF flows are negative, spot liquidity is thin, and futures positioning shows little speculative conviction, leaving price more sensitive to macro catalysts.
- Options markets reveal defensive positioning, with traders bidding short-dated IV, accumulating both wings, and showing consistent demand for downside protection. The surface signals short-term caution but more balanced sentiment across longer maturities.
- With the FOMC meeting as the final major catalyst of the year, implied volatility is expected to decay into late December. Market direction hinges on whether liquidity improves and sellers relent, or whether the current time-driven bearish pressure persists.

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Liquidity can be assessed through several measures, including the Realized Profit-to-Loss Ratio (30D-SMA).
For Solana, this ratio has traded below 1 since mid-November, meaning realized losses now exceed realized profits. This signals that liquidity has contracted back to levels typically seen in deep bear markets.

📉 glassno.de/3MoCPAt

Unrealized losses across the crypto ecosystem have recently climbed to ~$350B, including ~$85B in BTC alone.
With multiple on-chain indicators signalling shrinking liquidity across the board, the market is likely entering a high-volatility regime in the weeks ahead.

📊http://glassno.de/4oRkiua

$ETH Spot ETFs are showing the first signs of life after weeks of steady outflows.
Modest inflows are starting to return, hinting at easing redemption pressure. A sustained move back into positive territory would signal improving demand into year-end.

📊https://glassno.de/48HBugV

#BTC DATs continue selective but steady BTC accumulation. Flows remain modest compared to late-2024 peaks, yet buying has broadened across miners, tech, and financial firms. Despite volatility, balance-sheet adoption remains a quiet structural tailwind.
📈https://glassno.de/48KEyre

🔄 Update:

With the spot price trading around $86.4K, the key on-chain price models have now shifted slightly:

🔴 STH Cost Basis: $101.8K
🟡 Active Investors Mean: $87.9k
--- Spot Price: $86.4K ---
🟢True Market Mean: $81.3K
🔵 Realized Price: $56.3K

📊 http://glassno.de/3XDy2xe

The Week On-Chain 50, 2025
Bitcoin remains trapped in a fragile range as heavy overhead supply, rising loss realization, and fading demand cap recovery attempts. Price rejection near $93k and support near $81k define the battlefield, while spot, futures, and options positioning all point to a range-bound, time-driven market.

Executive Summary
- Bitcoin remains confined within a structurally fragile range, with recent rejection near $93k and a gradual drift lower toward $85.6k highlighting persistent overhead supply. Dense distribution between $93k–$120k continues to cap recovery attempts, while failure to reclaim the 0.75 quantile (~$95k) and the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $101.5k keeps upside momentum constrained.

- Despite sustained sell pressure, patient buyer demand has so far defended the True Market Mean near $81.3k, preventing a deeper breakdown. This balance reflects a market under time-driven stress, where rising unrealized and realized losses increase psychological pressure on investors.

- Spot demand remains selective and short-lived, with limited follow-through across major venues and no coordinated expansion in accumulation during recent pullbacks. Corporate treasury flows remain episodic, contributing to volatility but not providing consistent structural support.

- Futures markets continue to de-risk, with open interest trending lower and funding rates near neutral, signalling a lack of speculative conviction rather than forced deleveraging. Leverage is no longer driving downside, but neither is it supporting upside.

- Options markets reinforce a range-bound regime. Front-end volatility has compressed post-FOMC, downside risk remains priced but stable, and flows favour premium harvesting over directional bets, with large December expiries pinning price action into year-end.


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The 7D-SMA funding rate across major perpetual markets has improved modestly.
Mean funding recovered from ~0% to ~0.005%, before easing to ~0.003% over the past 24 hours.
Historically, sustained market advances tend to coincide with funding rates holding consistently above ~0.01%, suggesting current conditions remain supportive but not yet decisive.

📉 http://glassno.de/3L50Ig9