The Week On-Chain 46, 2025
BTC has broken below key cost-basis levels amid weak spot demand and steady ETF outflows. Derivatives remain muted, with declining OI, cycle-low funding, and options activity skewed toward downside protection.

Executive Summary
- Bitcoin has broken below the STH cost basis and the −1 STD band, placing recent buyers under stress; the $95K–$97K region now acts as key resistance, and a reclaim would mark an early step toward restoring market structure.
- Spot demand remains weak, with US spot ETF flows deeply negative and no incremental bid emerging from TradFi allocators.
- Speculative leverage continues to unwind, reflected in declining futures open interest and funding rates falling to cycle lows across the top 500 assets.
- Options markets have sharply repriced risk, with implied volatility rising across maturities and skew remaining deeply negative as traders pay significant premiums for downside protection.
- Put-dominant flow and demand at key strikes (e.g., 90K) reinforce a defensive positioning regime, with traders hedging more actively rather than adding upside exposure.
- DVOL has returned to monthly highs, tying together the broad repricing of risk across volatility, skew, and flow metrics and signalling expectations for elevated near-term volatility.



Read more in The Week On-Chain

The shift from a confirmed bull to a true bear market often comes after multiple major on-chain price models fail:

🔴STH Cost Basis: $109.8K
🟡Active Investors Mean: $88.6K
🟢True Market Mean: $82K
🔵Realized Price: $56.1K

We are now testing Active Investors Mean. A breakdown below both Active Investors and the True Market Mean would mark the first major confirmation of a deeper bear trend since May 2022.

📊 http://glassno.de/3XDy2xe

The $2.0 level remains a major psychological zone for Ripple holders.
Since early 2025, each time XRP has retested $2, investors have realized $0.5B–$1.2B per week in losses.

This underscores how heavily this level influences spending behavior.

📉http://glassno.de/4obHgvn

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Ends on #CyberMonday

$BTC sits beneath every short-term holder's realized price but remains well above deeper realized levels, leaving the market in no-man’s-land.
Regaining these bands would mark the first meaningful sign of structural recovery.
📉https://glassno.de/4rlNr2Y

Breaking above the top-buyers’ supply clusters is a key prerequisite for regaining momentum toward a new ATH.
The major immediate clusters sit at $93k–$96K & $100k–$108K, where typically some degree of resistance from recent buyers is expected.

📊 glassno.de/4p2DTbn

XRP’s futures OI has fallen from 1.7B XRP in early October to 0.7B XRP (~59% flush-out).
Paired with the funding rate dropping from ~0.01% to 0.001% (7D-SMA), 10/10 marked a structural pause in XRP speculators’ appetite to bet aggressively on upside.

📉 http://glassno.de/4pwZ0Cw

🔄 Update:

With spot price now at $90.9K, several key levels have shifted:

🔴 STH Cost Basis: $104.2K
--- Spot Price: $90.9K ---
🟡 Active Investors Mean: $88.1k
🟢True Market Mean: $81.7K
🔵 Realized Price: $56.4K

📊http://glassno.de/3XDy2xe

A new cost-basis cluster formed after Bitcoin’s drop into the low-$80K region, showing fresh accumulation at these levels. This zone is now one of the densest on the heatmap and could act as a strong support area, likely to be defended by recent buyers.
📉https://glassno.de/48mkMlC

The Glassnode x Fasanara Q4 2025 Digital Assets Report is live!
🔗 Download your copy at https://glassno.de/4pIbsQ1.

Drawing on Glassnode’s data and analytics and Fasanara’s trading perspective, we outline how market structure has shifted across spot, ETFs, futures, stablecoins, and tokenized assets.

From Bitcoin’s spot-driven expansion to the rise of tokenization and decentralized perps, the market is reshaping around new structural anchors. For professionals navigating a fast-changing market, the report offers a consolidated view of the digital asset ecosystem.

📄 Read more on Glassnode Insights → https://glassno.de/3MzXJwk