Consolidation Range

Bitcoin is currently trading at $111.1k, stuck between the 0.85 and 0.94 quantile cost basis band ($104.1k–$114.1k). This range historically marks post-euphoria consolidation. A break below signals further exhaustion, while a reclaim above $114k could mark renewed demand strength.

Chart here: glassno.de/3I3snwq

Rangebound

Any supply below $111.1k continues to be absorbed by latent demand as we consolidate. A break above $114.1k could see us test the cluster at $118k.

Chart link: https://glassno.de/3HUCL9M

Bitcoin entities holding 100–1k BTC (“sharks”) have sharply ramped up accumulation. Over the past 7 days, their holdings grew by ~65k BTC. The pace of accumulation has grown as well, with a 30D net increase of 93k BTC. This group now holds a record 3.65M BTC.

The Week On-Chain 36, 2025
Bitcoin is range-bound at $110k–$116k as profit-taking and slower ETF inflows curb momentum. Derivatives dominate, with $114k key for upside and $108k the risk level below.

Executive Summary
- Bitcoin holds in the $110k–$116k “air gap” after retreating from August highs. The $107k bounce drew dip-buyers, but short-term holder selling capped gains.
- Profit-taking by 3–6 month holders and losses from recent buyers weigh on momentum. Regaining $114k is key to restoring confidence and inflows.
- On-chain liquidity is steady but easing, while ETF flows have slowed to ~±500 BTC/day, tempering the TradFi demand that drove March and December rallies.
- With spot demand softer, derivatives lead. Futures remain balanced, and rising options open interest signals a more risk-managed structure.
- The market is at a crossroads: above $114k could unlock upside, while below $108k risks testing support near $93k.

Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.

Bitcoin’s cost basis distribution highlights dense support around $110k–$114k, where a large share of supply was acquired. The next major supply zone sits near $117k, which may provide resistance if price tests this level.

Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain

Since our Aug 25 post, distribution has softened but not reversed. Most $BTC cohorts remain below the 0.5 threshold, indicating sell-side pressure persists. No group is showing strong accumulation (>0.8). The market remains in a broadly neutral-to-distribution regime.

US Spot #Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of ~5.9k BTC on Sept 10th, the largest daily inflow since mid-July.

This pushed weekly net flows positive, reflecting renewed ETF demand as BTC consolidates above the $114k level.

Chart Link: glassno.de/3IhGs9B

Throughout this bull market, BTC short-term holder realized price has effectively served as a support baseline.
As long as the price respects this level, the trend remains constructive. Losing this support has coincided with phases of contraction or pullbacks.

Chart Link: https://glassno.de/41UGivu

The SOPR ratio of <3-month holders—tracking the profit margin of active spenders—bounced off neutral (SOPR = 1) as BTC found support at $107k.

Short-term investors' on-chain behaviour confirms the market is anticipating a positive outcome from this week’s FOMC meeting.

This bounce suggests renewed confidence among recent buyers, with many returning to profitability just days ahead of the Fed decision. Historically, such patterns often precede sharp reactions to macro catalysts.

glassno.de/4po5uo2

This renewed confidence largely stems from price reclaiming the cost basis of all sub-3-month holders, which ranges between $111.8k and $114.2k.

For this momentum to hold, BTC must remain above this range post-FOMC. Failure to do so could signal a classic “sell the news” market structure.


glassno.de/4mud4Lu

#Bitcoin is ~6.8% below its ATH, heading into the most anticipated FOMC meeting of the cycle.
Options traders are rapidly buying options to hedge or position for a volatility spike, reflecting the market’s uncertainty and expectation of a major move.

https://glassno.de/46G8Vz9