Market Analyses - @gaah_im on X
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▶️ Markets Analyses
▶️ on-chain Data #BTC #Crypto
▶️ Trading, AI, Macro Insights

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New record high LTH Supply Change 30d

#Bitcoin
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MVRV-NUPL Composite Score #Bitcoin returns to Undervalued 🟢 region reaching 17.3 points

Historically, below this region signals best times to accumulate #BTC

However, during previous bear markets the indicator reached deeper values that could mean there is room for more lower prices $BTC
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IBCI Daily remains at 4.76 points — in Accumulation Zone 🟢

#Bitcoin price ~$60k 🔻

📊 Live chart
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#Bitcoin approaches MVRV Buy Zone 🟢

The projected price for Bitcoin MVRV Buy Zone is in the range of ~$53,800

Historically, #BTC bottoms have formed in lower range of the MVRV Buy Zone

As price approaches this range it signals that the market is undervalued increasing the probability of discovering bottom of bear market

📊 Live chart
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ETFs Spot #Bitcoin are trading at a historic discount

Over the past week, the discount reached -6% signaling strong selling pressure
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#Bitcoin Supply in Loss reaches 52% 🩸

Highest level since 2022 approaching the historical range for capitulation and bottom formation
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NRPL Momentum #Bitcoin in strong loss realization 🔴 approaching historic levels of ~$700m RL/day

Over past 5 days, loss realization totaled approximately $3.175 billion as #BTC fell below $60k
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IBCI Daily remains at 4.76 points 🟢

#Bitcoin price ~$60k

📊 Live chart
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On-Chain 5-Factor Cycle Score has not yet reached the Undervalued🟢 region that historically marked major #Bitcoin cycle bottoms

This indicator is composed of 5 on-chain metrics: MVRV Ratio, NUPL, SOPR Ratio, Puell Multiple, and LTH Supply %
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Market Analyses - @gaah_im on X
#Bitcoin has completely filled support channel ($66k–$61k) Historically, impulsive movements expand and contract over 2 to 3 full subcycles. #BTC has just contracted by 2 subcycles. Regardless of whether support is broken, we trade support at the buy side…
#Bitcoin has fully filled support channel ($66k–$61k) — we’ve established a long 🟢 position in this range

As long as #BTC price remains above ~$58.8k the current subcycle ⬜️ is valid.

If price breaks below this region, new buy orders will enter the support channel ($56k-$51k), which totals 3 rotated subcycles, increasing probability of a rotation in ~90%.

The old support channel ($71k-$76k), now acting as resistance, is the primary range for closing positions established at lower of the subcycle (where we are) and opening short 🔴 hedges.

Above ~$68k we are scaling orders up to the higher region of resistance channel.
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Market Analyses - @gaah_im on X
Williams %R Momentum Oscillator #Bitcoin reached -98.88 🔻 Market is extremely oversold 🟢 The indicator has hit its lowest point since February 5
Williams %R Momentum Oscillator #Bitcoin breaks above -80 again exiting the Oversold🟢 zone

To confirm a reversal, the indicator is likely to break through the -50 intermediate range
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#Bitcoin Selling pressure 🔴 hits a 3-month high
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IBCI Weekly returns to 4.76 points in Accumulation Region 🟢

#Bitcoin price ~$63k

📊 Live chart
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Strategy acquired +1,550 #BTC after three weeks without new purchases and sold -32 BTC on June 1

Strategy cost basis is around $75,681 and despite sale, the amount of #Bitcoin in holdings increased to 845,260 $BTC
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#Bitcoin Supply in Loss MA7d hits a new high of 50% in 2026 🔥

Historically, when the indicator reaches levels above 50%, it signals periods of #BTC capitulation and formation of cycle bottom.

The last time indicator reached this range was in November 2022, when $BTC was trading below $20k
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Data from @swissblock__ shows #Bitcoin Price Momentum sitting at an extreme negative floor 🔴

As seen in previous subcycles, this crossover above the -0.5 inflection point is what confirms that sell-side exhaustion is fading and a sustainable base is actually being built.

The price has retraced two full subcycles, filling 100% of the support channels.

#BTC $68,600 is the key level to watch in the current price subcycle, while the indicator is expected to approach -0.5

🔗 Source
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IBCI Daily remains at 4.76 points 🟢

📊 Live chart
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Duration for which #BTC price deviates below the 200-day moving average is, on average, about 12 months based on historical #Bitcoin cycles.

In the current cycle, about 8 months have passed, which may mean that we are very close to the bottom of cycle.
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According to latest Binance Research report, 60% of #Bitcoin total circulating supply hasn't moved in over a year.

Throughout 2025, we witnessed a historic spot distribution where old holders realized billions in profits — but that aggressive exit pressure has dried up.

The supply in active circulation has drastically thinned out, meaning the market's illiquid base is set.

🔗 Source
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