Aside from the pandemic in 2022, the only other time in US history that savings were this low was between 2005 and 2008, leading to the Global Financial Crisis.
After that, people's desire to save by rebuilding a financial safety cushion severely delayed the economic recovery.
At that time, the situation was largely rescued by the huge government spending that has since become the norm. Today, rising debt and chronic deficits severely limit the scope for government stimulus as the economy contracts, and this could be a multi-year problem.
After that, people's desire to save by rebuilding a financial safety cushion severely delayed the economic recovery.
At that time, the situation was largely rescued by the huge government spending that has since become the norm. Today, rising debt and chronic deficits severely limit the scope for government stimulus as the economy contracts, and this could be a multi-year problem.
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The recent data, which were close to traders' and analysts' average forecasts, did not lead to a significant reassessment of the markets.
At the same time, they kept the Dollar Index above its 200-day moving average, which the DXY has been trying to break daily since the 19th. At the same time, equity indices are seeing increased buying, with the Dow Jones and Russell 2000 posting gains of almost 1.3%. The latter is only 1.35% below its 2.5-year high of 17 July. The Dow Jones is trading above 40,000 but still close to this psychologically significant round level. The S&P500 is hovering around its 50-day average.
Next week promises to be a bellwether for market sentiment. It will be dominated by meetings from the Fed, Bank of Japan, and Bank of England, as well as the monthly NFP employment report.
This concentration of news, coupled with the proximity of key levels, has a good chance of setting the trend for the coming weeks.
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
At the same time, they kept the Dollar Index above its 200-day moving average, which the DXY has been trying to break daily since the 19th. At the same time, equity indices are seeing increased buying, with the Dow Jones and Russell 2000 posting gains of almost 1.3%. The latter is only 1.35% below its 2.5-year high of 17 July. The Dow Jones is trading above 40,000 but still close to this psychologically significant round level. The S&P500 is hovering around its 50-day average.
Next week promises to be a bellwether for market sentiment. It will be dominated by meetings from the Fed, Bank of Japan, and Bank of England, as well as the monthly NFP employment report.
This concentration of news, coupled with the proximity of key levels, has a good chance of setting the trend for the coming weeks.
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
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The #crypto market cap has returned to $2.49 trillion, adding 3.3% in the last 24 hours. At this stage, the top coins are the lifting force for the market, with BTCUSD up 3.1%, Ethereum up 4.4%, and Solana up 5.5%.
#Bitcoin's price has reached $69.5K, its highest since mid-June. The Bitcoin 2024 conference tipped the scales in favour of the bulls. The technical picture speaks in favour of further upside, as the latest spurt came after a local shakeout that removed overbought conditions and broke the resistance of the descending channel.
#Ethereum is gaining momentum after pushing back from its 200-day MA for the second time this month. On Monday, the coin is testing the 50-day MA, rising to $3380, the taking of which opens a fast route to $3500 and then $4000.
#Solana is making steady progress upwards, reaching $192, its highest since early April. This shows a stronger recovery compared to Bitcoin and the broader market, where capitalisation is lower than the peak in early June.
#Bitcoin's price has reached $69.5K, its highest since mid-June. The Bitcoin 2024 conference tipped the scales in favour of the bulls. The technical picture speaks in favour of further upside, as the latest spurt came after a local shakeout that removed overbought conditions and broke the resistance of the descending channel.
#Ethereum is gaining momentum after pushing back from its 200-day MA for the second time this month. On Monday, the coin is testing the 50-day MA, rising to $3380, the taking of which opens a fast route to $3500 and then $4000.
#Solana is making steady progress upwards, reaching $192, its highest since early April. This shows a stronger recovery compared to Bitcoin and the broader market, where capitalisation is lower than the peak in early June.
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#Review #WTI
Oil Is a Step Away from Falling Off a Cliff
Oil is currently adding 0.6% to $76.45 per barrel WTI, but that's only half of the spurt at the start of trading after the weekend. An important technical signal is forming in oil, as it closed last week below its 200-week average (now at $77.19) for the first time since January 2020 and was unable to quickly get back above it.
Cautious traders will probably prefer to wait for a failure below $75, which would cement a technical break of support through the area of the past 16 months lows.
Oil Is a Step Away from Falling Off a Cliff
Oil is currently adding 0.6% to $76.45 per barrel WTI, but that's only half of the spurt at the start of trading after the weekend. An important technical signal is forming in oil, as it closed last week below its 200-week average (now at $77.19) for the first time since January 2020 and was unable to quickly get back above it.
Cautious traders will probably prefer to wait for a failure below $75, which would cement a technical break of support through the area of the past 16 months lows.
On the daily timeframes, the bears' local victory has already manifested itself in the active oil sell-off at the touch of the 200-day average last week. On the other hand, oil has so far managed to avoid a violent emotional sell-off on breaking this level, in contrast to how it was at the end of May, as well as in February and November.
Oil has so far failed to ride the favourable news background with the tightening geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. In the second half of last week, reports of a 3.7 million drop in commercial inventories to 436.5 million (-4.5% y/y) also failed to attract buyers.
Oil has so far failed to ride the favourable news background with the tightening geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. In the second half of last week, reports of a 3.7 million drop in commercial inventories to 436.5 million (-4.5% y/y) also failed to attract buyers.
Among the moderately negative factors for oil were a rise in the number of oil drilling rigs by 3pc to 482 and a continuation of record US production at 13.3m bpd.
However, the most important selling factor is the signs of a cooling economy that the market fears. So far, this has manifested itself in a slowdown in consumer spending, reduced price pressures, and weak home sales.
This week, the market will face how the Fed assesses the trajectory of the economy on Wednesday and housing market data later in the week. This is a strong enough set to trigger a sell-off in oil or, conversely, to convincingly support buying.
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
However, the most important selling factor is the signs of a cooling economy that the market fears. So far, this has manifested itself in a slowdown in consumer spending, reduced price pressures, and weak home sales.
This week, the market will face how the Fed assesses the trajectory of the economy on Wednesday and housing market data later in the week. This is a strong enough set to trigger a sell-off in oil or, conversely, to convincingly support buying.
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
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Central Bank meetings this week are a reason for volatility
The week ahead will be packed with significant economic events, so the market behaviour could turn into quite a bumpy ride this week.
On Wednesday morning, the Bank of Japan will announce its rate decision and the parameters of its balance sheet asset purchase programme. On average, the purchases are expected to be halved, but the key rate is not expected to change. At the same time, the central bank may go for a second rate hike to 0.25% after the March hike from -0.1% to +0.1%.
Sharper cuts in balance sheet buying are not ruled out. This is a potentially positive turn of events for the yen. In previous months, the Bank of Japan has been criticised for its loose policy weakening the yen, leading to currency intervention. Tightening monetary policy is a less costly way to support the currency without selling off international reserves.
The week ahead will be packed with significant economic events, so the market behaviour could turn into quite a bumpy ride this week.
On Wednesday morning, the Bank of Japan will announce its rate decision and the parameters of its balance sheet asset purchase programme. On average, the purchases are expected to be halved, but the key rate is not expected to change. At the same time, the central bank may go for a second rate hike to 0.25% after the March hike from -0.1% to +0.1%.
Sharper cuts in balance sheet buying are not ruled out. This is a potentially positive turn of events for the yen. In previous months, the Bank of Japan has been criticised for its loose policy weakening the yen, leading to currency intervention. Tightening monetary policy is a less costly way to support the currency without selling off international reserves.
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No actual policy changes are expected from Wednesday night's Fed rate decision. Still, observers will dive into studying the accompanying commentary changes to gauge the chances of a rate cut in September and the number of those cuts before the end of the year. Rate futures give a 10% chance that the rate will be 50 basis points lower in September than it is now, which is excessive. Slightly less excessive is the market's estimate of a 63.5% chance of 3 or more rate cuts before the end of the year. Approaching that probability to 100% or moving to expectations of two cuts promises to be a major field for Fed "expectations management". A shift to soft sentiment is a market risk: bearish for the dollar and bullish for equities. A surprise tighter rate approach has the potential to set off a spiral of dollar gains and a sell-off in risk assets.
On Thursday, all eyes are on the Bank of England rate decision. The chances of a cut are barely over 50%. If it stays this way until Thursday, any outcome will cause a surge of volatility in the markets of England and pairs with the pound. GBPUSD has added over 3% since the start of the month to 17 July but has squandered half of that gain since then. This could well be a tactical retreat before a fresh attempt to break 1.30, which failed in mid-July. Bank of England's softness has the potential to erase last month's gains in GBPUSD rather quickly, pushing the pair back to 1.26.
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📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
#WaveAnalysis
#AUDCHF reversed from key support level 0.5735;
Likely to rise to resistance level 0.5850.
AUDCHF currency pair recently reversed up with the daily Japanese candlestick Piercing Line from the key support level 0.5735 (the previous monthly low from April, as can be seen below).
The support level 0.5735 was strengthened by the nearby lower daily Bollinger Band.
Given the strength of the support level 0.5735 and the still oversold reading on the daily Stochastic indicator, AUDCHF currency pair can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 0.5850.
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
#AUDCHF reversed from key support level 0.5735;
Likely to rise to resistance level 0.5850.
AUDCHF currency pair recently reversed up with the daily Japanese candlestick Piercing Line from the key support level 0.5735 (the previous monthly low from April, as can be seen below).
The support level 0.5735 was strengthened by the nearby lower daily Bollinger Band.
Given the strength of the support level 0.5735 and the still oversold reading on the daily Stochastic indicator, AUDCHF currency pair can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 0.5850.
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
#WaveAnalysis
#USDJPY reversed from support level 151.95;
Likely to rise to resistance level 155.00.
USDJPY currency pair recently reversed up from the powerful support level 151.95 (former major resistance from 2022 and also the yearly high from last year), standing close to the 50% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from 2023.
The upward reversal from the support level 151.95 stopped the previous minor correction 4.
Given the clear daily uptrend, USDJPY currency pair can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 155.00.
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
#USDJPY reversed from support level 151.95;
Likely to rise to resistance level 155.00.
USDJPY currency pair recently reversed up from the powerful support level 151.95 (former major resistance from 2022 and also the yearly high from last year), standing close to the 50% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from 2023.
The upward reversal from the support level 151.95 stopped the previous minor correction 4.
Given the clear daily uptrend, USDJPY currency pair can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 155.00.
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
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The #crypto market pulled back 3% to a cap of $2.4 trillion, erasing gains for a while due to the Bitcoin 2024 conference.
#Bitcoin spent a few seconds above $70K on Monday before undergoing a powerful sell-off that took its price below $66K at the peak of the decline in Asian trading on Tuesday. The market was pressured by reports that the US government had put 30K Bitcoins ($2.1bn) into circulation.
One can only wonder whether this is part of a trend following the Mt Gox and German government sales, a game of anticipation before Trump came to power and banned these sales, or whether it's all about the "high price." Only further transactions will help us to find an answer. There are believed to be over 203k bitcoins on the balance sheet, a concentrated sale of which could sell off the market.
Technically, yesterday's breakout of resistance by Bitcoin may still be false, and the latest rise slightly changes the angle of the downtrend but does not break it.
#Bitcoin spent a few seconds above $70K on Monday before undergoing a powerful sell-off that took its price below $66K at the peak of the decline in Asian trading on Tuesday. The market was pressured by reports that the US government had put 30K Bitcoins ($2.1bn) into circulation.
One can only wonder whether this is part of a trend following the Mt Gox and German government sales, a game of anticipation before Trump came to power and banned these sales, or whether it's all about the "high price." Only further transactions will help us to find an answer. There are believed to be over 203k bitcoins on the balance sheet, a concentrated sale of which could sell off the market.
Technically, yesterday's breakout of resistance by Bitcoin may still be false, and the latest rise slightly changes the angle of the downtrend but does not break it.
📊 Eurozone GDP grew by 0.3% q/q and 0.6% q/q, showing some acceleration and exceeding average forecasts.
💲July inflation estimates were also released today across the euro region.
💶 Contradictory European data poisoned EURUSD to test the round level of 1.08.
Read more
💲July inflation estimates were also released today across the euro region.
💶 Contradictory European data poisoned EURUSD to test the round level of 1.08.
Read more
FxPro News
Forex - Inflation and GDP dynamics leave space for the ECB | Market Overview
Eurozone GDP grew by 0.3% q/q and 0.6% q/q, showing some acceleration and exceeding average forecasts. This is still a very low pace, but the economy...
#WaveAnalysis #SP500
▪️S&P 500 index reversed from support zone
▪️Likely to rise to resistance level 5585.00
Read more
▪️S&P 500 index reversed from support zone
▪️Likely to rise to resistance level 5585.00
Read more
FxPro News
Forex - S&P 500 index Wave Analysis 31 July 2024 | Technical analysis
- S&P 500 index reversed from support zone - Likely to rise to resistance level 5585.00 S&P 500 index recently reversed up from the...
#Crypto
▫️The crypto market cap went back to $2.30tr, forming another lower local peak.
▫️#Bitcoin near $63.7K on Thursday, once again near the 50-day MA
▫️Mt.Gox-related wallets still hold 80,128 BTC worth $5.32bn.
Read more
▫️The crypto market cap went back to $2.30tr, forming another lower local peak.
▫️#Bitcoin near $63.7K on Thursday, once again near the 50-day MA
▫️Mt.Gox-related wallets still hold 80,128 BTC worth $5.32bn.
Read more
FxPro News
Forex - The crypto market pulled back further into the range | Crypto Review
Market picture Cryptocurrencies continued to sag, failing to support gains in the stock market, returning the crypto market cap to $2.30trn levels...
#WaveAnalysis
▪️ #EURAUD reversed from long-term resistance level 1.6670
▪️Likely to fall to support level 1.6400
Read more
▪️ #EURAUD reversed from long-term resistance level 1.6670
▪️Likely to fall to support level 1.6400
Read more
FxPro News
Forex - EURAUD Wave Analysis 1 August 2024 | Technical analysis
- EURAUD reversed from long-term resistance level 1.6670 - Likely to fall to support level 1.6400 EURAUD currency pair recently reversed do...
#Crypto
▫️The crypto market lost 0.75% in 24 hours to $2.29 trillion
▫️#Bitcoin managed to push back from the 50-day MA
▫️#Solana ecosystem surpassed #Ethereum for the first time in terms of trading volume on DEX
Read more
▫️The crypto market lost 0.75% in 24 hours to $2.29 trillion
▫️#Bitcoin managed to push back from the 50-day MA
▫️#Solana ecosystem surpassed #Ethereum for the first time in terms of trading volume on DEX
Read more
FxPro News
Forex - Bitcoin fends off bear attack, clinging to levels | Crypto Review
Market picture The crypto market lost 0.75% in 24 hours to $2.29 trillion. A day earlier, we noted a decline in cryptocurrencies in contrast to th...
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