The Nasdaq-100 remains the heaviest among the key indices, losing 2% since the start of the day on Wednesday and 3.6% for the week, pulling back below 20,000.
The S&P500 was updating intraday all-time highs through Tuesday, but today’s 1% index pullback erased its minimal gains.
We initially welcomed the Russell 2000’s break of the long-term resistance line and its acceleration after a prolonged lull as a signal of a long-awaited rally extension.
However, a persistent decline in the Nasdaq-100—the poster child of market growth—could drag the entire market down with it. In 2021, there were five weeks between the peak of the Nasdaq and the Dow Jones, but this is an exception, and often indices synchronise faster.
The S&P500 was updating intraday all-time highs through Tuesday, but today’s 1% index pullback erased its minimal gains.
We initially welcomed the Russell 2000’s break of the long-term resistance line and its acceleration after a prolonged lull as a signal of a long-awaited rally extension.
However, a persistent decline in the Nasdaq-100—the poster child of market growth—could drag the entire market down with it. In 2021, there were five weeks between the peak of the Nasdaq and the Dow Jones, but this is an exception, and often indices synchronise faster.
The #crypto market has pulled back 0.7% to $2.37 trillion from local extremes in the last 24 hours while remaining around highs. This looks like localised profit-taking after the rally, but not exhaustion.
For #Bitcoin, it is technically significant that the current consolidation around $64K is taking place above the 50-day moving average, making it support. The closest technical resistance looks to be the $67-68K area, where the upper boundary of the descending channel from March passes.
However, in our view, FOMO may come to the markets only after overcoming the $70K level, the last round mark before the historical highs. It looks to be a matter of weeks, but don't expect a smooth ascent - a definite selling overhang still exists.
#Ethereum remains chained to its 50-day moving average, running just below $3500. News of a spot ETF is not pushing the price up yet. It seems that only actual buying, or rather even its accumulative effect, can do that, which will reduce the circulating supply of coins.
For #Bitcoin, it is technically significant that the current consolidation around $64K is taking place above the 50-day moving average, making it support. The closest technical resistance looks to be the $67-68K area, where the upper boundary of the descending channel from March passes.
However, in our view, FOMO may come to the markets only after overcoming the $70K level, the last round mark before the historical highs. It looks to be a matter of weeks, but don't expect a smooth ascent - a definite selling overhang still exists.
#Ethereum remains chained to its 50-day moving average, running just below $3500. News of a spot ETF is not pushing the price up yet. It seems that only actual buying, or rather even its accumulative effect, can do that, which will reduce the circulating supply of coins.
#WaveAnalysis
#EURCAD broke key resistance level 1.4920;
Likely to rise to resistance level 1.5040.
EURCAD currency pair recently broke above the key resistance level 1.4920, which stopped the previous correction (2) at the start of June.
The breakout of the resistance level 1.4920 greatly accelerated the active impulse wave c of the ABC correction 2 from the end of last month.
Given the rising euro bullish sentiment, EURCAD currency pair can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 1.5040 (former multi-month high from November).
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#EURCAD broke key resistance level 1.4920;
Likely to rise to resistance level 1.5040.
EURCAD currency pair recently broke above the key resistance level 1.4920, which stopped the previous correction (2) at the start of June.
The breakout of the resistance level 1.4920 greatly accelerated the active impulse wave c of the ABC correction 2 from the end of last month.
Given the rising euro bullish sentiment, EURCAD currency pair can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 1.5040 (former multi-month high from November).
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#WaveAnalysis
#GBPJPY reversed from the resistance area;
Likely to fall to support level 201.65.
GBPJPY currency pair continues to fall after the price reversed down from the resistance area located between the upper trendline of the weekly up channel from last year and the upper weekly Bollinger Band.
The downward reversal from this resistance area created the weekly Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Doji.
Given the overbought weekly Stochastic, strongly bearish sterling sentiment, and the equally strong yen optimism seen recently, GBPJPY currency pair can be expected to fall further to the next support level 201.65.
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#GBPJPY reversed from the resistance area;
Likely to fall to support level 201.65.
GBPJPY currency pair continues to fall after the price reversed down from the resistance area located between the upper trendline of the weekly up channel from last year and the upper weekly Bollinger Band.
The downward reversal from this resistance area created the weekly Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Doji.
Given the overbought weekly Stochastic, strongly bearish sterling sentiment, and the equally strong yen optimism seen recently, GBPJPY currency pair can be expected to fall further to the next support level 201.65.
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The UK jobs market is cooling. The number of applications for unemployment benefits in June increased by 32.3K after a jump of 51.9K a month earlier. Prior, this indicator had been drifting for almost two years, adding an average of 2.5K per month.
The rise in claimant count claims may strengthen the hand of inflation doves on the Bank of England's MPC. In this regard, weaker-than-expected data caused pressure on GBPUSD, forcing it to retreat to 1.2980 from the peak 1.3040 a day earlier.
In parallel, data recorded a slowdown in earnings, decelerating to 5.7% 3m/y. In earnings excluding bonuses, this is a pullback to levels we last saw in September 2022, but it is still significantly above the norm.
On balance, the published data noted that the economy is moving in the direction needed for the Bank of England to ease policy but is unlikely to force this as early as August. With the data in hand, it seems that the Central Bank may wait until mid-September or even early November.
The rise in claimant count claims may strengthen the hand of inflation doves on the Bank of England's MPC. In this regard, weaker-than-expected data caused pressure on GBPUSD, forcing it to retreat to 1.2980 from the peak 1.3040 a day earlier.
In parallel, data recorded a slowdown in earnings, decelerating to 5.7% 3m/y. In earnings excluding bonuses, this is a pullback to levels we last saw in September 2022, but it is still significantly above the norm.
On balance, the published data noted that the economy is moving in the direction needed for the Bank of England to ease policy but is unlikely to force this as early as August. With the data in hand, it seems that the Central Bank may wait until mid-September or even early November.
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#WaveAnalysis
#EURJPY reversed from support area;
Likely to rise to resistance level 172.95.
EURJPY currency pair today reversed up from the support area located between the pivotal support level 170.95 (which stopped the pair in April and May), lower daily Bollinger Band, 50% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from June and the support trendline of the daily up channel from February.
The upward reversal from this support area stopped the previous short-term correction from the start of July.
Given the clear daily uptrend and the oversold daily Stochastic, EURJPY currency pair can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 172.95.
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#EURJPY reversed from support area;
Likely to rise to resistance level 172.95.
EURJPY currency pair today reversed up from the support area located between the pivotal support level 170.95 (which stopped the pair in April and May), lower daily Bollinger Band, 50% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from June and the support trendline of the daily up channel from February.
The upward reversal from this support area stopped the previous short-term correction from the start of July.
Given the clear daily uptrend and the oversold daily Stochastic, EURJPY currency pair can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 172.95.
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#WaveAnalysis
#USDCHF reversed from support area;
Likely to rise to resistance level 0.9000.
USDCHF currency pair today reversed up from the support area located between the key support level 0.8835 (which created the Morning Star in June), 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from December and the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from this support area stopped the previous waves c and B.
Given the strength of the support level 0.8835, USDCHF currency pair can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 0.9000 (top of the previous correction ii).
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#USDCHF reversed from support area;
Likely to rise to resistance level 0.9000.
USDCHF currency pair today reversed up from the support area located between the key support level 0.8835 (which created the Morning Star in June), 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from December and the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from this support area stopped the previous waves c and B.
Given the strength of the support level 0.8835, USDCHF currency pair can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 0.9000 (top of the previous correction ii).
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The #crypto market cap fell 1% in 24 hours to $2.36 trillion. The pullback in traditional finances explains why Bitcoin is dragging the overall crypto down. Bitcoin is losing 1.3%, Ethereum 0.5%, and the top altcoins are changing between -4.7% (XRP) and 2.8% (Solana).
#Bitcoin continues to tread around $64K, clinging to the area above its 50-day MA. Consolidation after the rally in Bitcoin continues, with it technically far from overbought and sentiment far from euphoric, leaving room for gains.
Despite the unsightly external background, #Solana set a new local peak at $164, the highest in six weeks. The coin withstood repeated attempts to sell the price below the 200-day MA since the end of June. This support coincided with a 61.8% retracement of the rally from September to the March peak. The expansion pattern will activate if the price rises above $200, making the $320 area a potential target. It will take impressive FOMO and a successful Solana project effort to get the price there in the coming year.
#Bitcoin continues to tread around $64K, clinging to the area above its 50-day MA. Consolidation after the rally in Bitcoin continues, with it technically far from overbought and sentiment far from euphoric, leaving room for gains.
Despite the unsightly external background, #Solana set a new local peak at $164, the highest in six weeks. The coin withstood repeated attempts to sell the price below the 200-day MA since the end of June. This support coincided with a 61.8% retracement of the rally from September to the March peak. The expansion pattern will activate if the price rises above $200, making the $320 area a potential target. It will take impressive FOMO and a successful Solana project effort to get the price there in the coming year.
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#Gold made an 3% surge during the week, breaking May's all-time highs. However, it then retreated to the downside, selling off throughout the second half of the week. What should you watch out for to see if this is a reversal?
Pullbacks after making new highs have been a typical pattern for gold in recent months, with similar retreats in May, April, March, and December. The highs were followed by a pullback, which subsided within about two weeks, leading to a stabilisation of the price and a return to the upside.
However, bull markets do not last forever, and traders should look for signs that this bullish trend is reversing. We pay attention to the following warning signals.
A synchronised pull-out of risk assets: Along with gold, stock indices were also under pressure this week. After a long divergence, all four key indices (Nasdaq-100, S&P 500, Dow Jones 30, Russell 2000) were down on Thursday. The last all-time high for gold and the S&P500 came on 17 June, also indicating a synchronised reversal.
Pullbacks after making new highs have been a typical pattern for gold in recent months, with similar retreats in May, April, March, and December. The highs were followed by a pullback, which subsided within about two weeks, leading to a stabilisation of the price and a return to the upside.
However, bull markets do not last forever, and traders should look for signs that this bullish trend is reversing. We pay attention to the following warning signals.
A synchronised pull-out of risk assets: Along with gold, stock indices were also under pressure this week. After a long divergence, all four key indices (Nasdaq-100, S&P 500, Dow Jones 30, Russell 2000) were down on Thursday. The last all-time high for gold and the S&P500 came on 17 June, also indicating a synchronised reversal.
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A falling relative strength: The upward impulses taking the gold price to new highs coincide with increasingly lower RSI peaks. In March, at the $2179 price closing high, the RSI peaked at 84. In April, with the price closing high at $2392, the RSI was climbing to 73. In the outgoing week, the record close was at $2468, with RSI at 70. We deliberately skipped the May peak with a closing high of $2425 and RSI at 67, as that upside momentum was relatively small - about 6%.
Next week could determine the momentum for months to come. Drops of more than 3% next week could repeat the pattern of 2020 and 2022 with protracted corrections of more than six months. Most worrisome would be a repeat of the 2011 pattern, when the high of $1921 was followed by a 20% sell-off over four weeks. This peak was not rewritten until nine years later, and from the global peak to the global bottom, the value of a troy ounce almost halved, declining for more than four years.
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Next week could determine the momentum for months to come. Drops of more than 3% next week could repeat the pattern of 2020 and 2022 with protracted corrections of more than six months. Most worrisome would be a repeat of the 2011 pattern, when the high of $1921 was followed by a 20% sell-off over four weeks. This peak was not rewritten until nine years later, and from the global peak to the global bottom, the value of a troy ounce almost halved, declining for more than four years.
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#WaveAnalysis
#Gold reversed from resistance area;
Likely to fall to support level 2350.
Gold recently reversed down from the resistance area located between the pivotal resistance level 2440 (which stopped the previous waves 3 and 5, as can be seen below) and the upper weekly Bollinger Band.
The downward reversal from this resistance area is likely to form the weekly Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Shooting Star Doji – strong sell signal for gold.
Given the clear triple bearish divergence on the weekly Stochastic indicator, Gold can be expected to fall further to the next support level 2350.
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#Gold reversed from resistance area;
Likely to fall to support level 2350.
Gold recently reversed down from the resistance area located between the pivotal resistance level 2440 (which stopped the previous waves 3 and 5, as can be seen below) and the upper weekly Bollinger Band.
The downward reversal from this resistance area is likely to form the weekly Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Shooting Star Doji – strong sell signal for gold.
Given the clear triple bearish divergence on the weekly Stochastic indicator, Gold can be expected to fall further to the next support level 2350.
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The #crypto market is near 6-week highs, with the cap near $2.44 trillion (+0.5% in 24h). The market prefers to stand still, waiting for new signals, which may be statements from politicians or important economic data scheduled for the second half of the week.
#Bitcoin is trading near $67.2K, losing 0.7% since the beginning of the day. Growth has lost traction near the upper boundary of the descending channel. Here, the first cryptocurrency may linger for a few days, staying within the pattern of the last five months. Prior to that, on Friday, the 50-day MA served as an important support and launching pad for the latest growth momentum.
Bitcoin will need to overcome $71K to confirm the break of the downward consolidation, which we believe will be in the next few days. Also, there may be a new attempt to drag down the price back below the 50-day MA (now near $63.7K) during this retreat.
#Bitcoin is trading near $67.2K, losing 0.7% since the beginning of the day. Growth has lost traction near the upper boundary of the descending channel. Here, the first cryptocurrency may linger for a few days, staying within the pattern of the last five months. Prior to that, on Friday, the 50-day MA served as an important support and launching pad for the latest growth momentum.
Bitcoin will need to overcome $71K to confirm the break of the downward consolidation, which we believe will be in the next few days. Also, there may be a new attempt to drag down the price back below the 50-day MA (now near $63.7K) during this retreat.
#Review #WTI #Brent
Crude Oil went back to crucial support. What’s next?
Oil started July by attempting to break the downside resistance that has been forming on weekly timeframes since March 2022. Reversals from lower and lower levels are supported by a slowing global economy and stagnant demand. The only thing holding the price back from a real collapse is the fact that the oil supply has also been shrinking or stagnating in recent months.
Notably, oil reversed downwards last week despite the rather bullish news on inventories. Commercial oil inventories fell by 4.9 million barrels and 20.5 million in three consecutive weeks of declines. Total commercial inventories are estimated at 440 million barrels, down 3.8% from a year ago. The strategic reserve was replenished by 0.65mn for the week to 373.7 million (+7.7% y/y).
Crude Oil went back to crucial support. What’s next?
Oil started July by attempting to break the downside resistance that has been forming on weekly timeframes since March 2022. Reversals from lower and lower levels are supported by a slowing global economy and stagnant demand. The only thing holding the price back from a real collapse is the fact that the oil supply has also been shrinking or stagnating in recent months.
Notably, oil reversed downwards last week despite the rather bullish news on inventories. Commercial oil inventories fell by 4.9 million barrels and 20.5 million in three consecutive weeks of declines. Total commercial inventories are estimated at 440 million barrels, down 3.8% from a year ago. The strategic reserve was replenished by 0.65mn for the week to 373.7 million (+7.7% y/y).
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The US has been producing at a rate of 13.3mbpd for the past two weeks, the all-time ceiling, but with little increase since last October. The Baker Hughes report on Friday saw the oil rig count fall by another 1 unit to 477, updating the lowest since December 2021, although the price is roughly where it was in early 2024 and 2023.
From a macroeconomic perspective, the trend in oil will be determined by the supply/demand balance. In recent weeks, there have been increasing signs that demand is losing traction, although these signs are too few to set up oil to depreciate. Tech analysis may come to oil's rescue.
From a macroeconomic perspective, the trend in oil will be determined by the supply/demand balance. In recent weeks, there have been increasing signs that demand is losing traction, although these signs are too few to set up oil to depreciate. Tech analysis may come to oil's rescue.
Oil at $77.7 is testing crucial support in the form of the 200-week moving average (now at $76.7) for the second time in eight weeks. Since the beginning of 2023, touches of this line have coincided with significant interventions by OPEC+ when the cartel reduced quotas or postponed their increase.
In this regard, we should not conclude the bearish trend in oil until the price falls below $75 per barrel of WTI or $79 per barrel of Brent. Breaking this support, if it happens, could start a sell-off in oil proportionate to what we saw in 2008, 2014 or 2020. Adding to the nervousness, July was a turning point for oil in 2008 and 2014. But until that event, the base case scenario still looks like a rebound bet.
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In this regard, we should not conclude the bearish trend in oil until the price falls below $75 per barrel of WTI or $79 per barrel of Brent. Breaking this support, if it happens, could start a sell-off in oil proportionate to what we saw in 2008, 2014 or 2020. Adding to the nervousness, July was a turning point for oil in 2008 and 2014. But until that event, the base case scenario still looks like a rebound bet.
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#WaveAnalysis #SPX
S&P 500 continues daily uptrend;
Likely to rise to resistance level 5675.
S&P 500 Index recently reversed from the support area between the key support level 5500 (former resistance from June) and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous upward impulse from May.
The upward reversal from this support area will likely form the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bullish Engulfing if the price closes today near the current levels – a strong buy signal for this index.
Given the clear daily uptrend, S&P 500 Index can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 5675 (top of the previous wave i).
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S&P 500 continues daily uptrend;
Likely to rise to resistance level 5675.
S&P 500 Index recently reversed from the support area between the key support level 5500 (former resistance from June) and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous upward impulse from May.
The upward reversal from this support area will likely form the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bullish Engulfing if the price closes today near the current levels – a strong buy signal for this index.
Given the clear daily uptrend, S&P 500 Index can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 5675 (top of the previous wave i).
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#WaveAnalysis
General Electric reversed from support area;
Likely to rise to resistance level 165.00
General Electric earlier reversed up from the support area located between the key support level 156.55 (which reversed the price multiple times from June), lower daily Bollinger Band and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the previous upward impulse from April.
The upward reversal from this support area created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Doji, highlighting the strength of this support area.
Given the prevailing uptrend, General Electric can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 165.00 (which stopped the earlier waves B, a and c).
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General Electric reversed from support area;
Likely to rise to resistance level 165.00
General Electric earlier reversed up from the support area located between the key support level 156.55 (which reversed the price multiple times from June), lower daily Bollinger Band and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the previous upward impulse from April.
The upward reversal from this support area created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Doji, highlighting the strength of this support area.
Given the prevailing uptrend, General Electric can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 165.00 (which stopped the earlier waves B, a and c).
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