#Review
#Gold: third time lucky for the bears?
Gold has been under moderate pressure since last Friday, when the price reversed sharply from above $2360. This is an important signal from the bears that they retain control of the market, forming a trend of lower local highs.
On Wednesday morning, the price temporarily dipped below $2310, returning to the support area of the last two months near $2300. This brought the price close to an important level for the market, promising an imminent battle between bulls and bears.
We see gold's momentum from the October 2023 lows to the March 2024 highs. This was a principal reversal from the 200-week moving average.
Since then, the market balance has shifted to sell on the upside, indicating the prevalence of profit-taking. But so far, we are seeing a shallow correction, typical of strong bull markets, as the drawdown is being brought back on the decline to 76.4% of total momentum instead of the classic 61.8% (at $2200).
#Gold: third time lucky for the bears?
Gold has been under moderate pressure since last Friday, when the price reversed sharply from above $2360. This is an important signal from the bears that they retain control of the market, forming a trend of lower local highs.
On Wednesday morning, the price temporarily dipped below $2310, returning to the support area of the last two months near $2300. This brought the price close to an important level for the market, promising an imminent battle between bulls and bears.
We see gold's momentum from the October 2023 lows to the March 2024 highs. This was a principal reversal from the 200-week moving average.
Since then, the market balance has shifted to sell on the upside, indicating the prevalence of profit-taking. But so far, we are seeing a shallow correction, typical of strong bull markets, as the drawdown is being brought back on the decline to 76.4% of total momentum instead of the classic 61.8% (at $2200).
👍1
However, the downside momentum in gold is hard to ignore. There were strong selloffs on 22 April, 22-23 May, and 7 June. On 21 June, the decline was not so impressive but very instructive, as it prevented the price from returning above the 50-day moving average and absorbed the previous day's bullish candle.
Clearly, the bears in this market are strongly forming a reversal pattern to the downside. A rising dollar, helped by a further hawkish shift by FOMC members, is additionally playing on the sellers' side.
If the third attempt to go below $2300 is successful for the bears, the gold price could move into the $2200 area rather quickly, as the area between these levels does not contain any previous significant stops. The next destination could be the $2070 area, which has been working as resistance for a long time.
If we are talking about important milestones on the way up, they are $2340 (50-day average), $2360 (previous peak), and $2450 (global high).
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
Clearly, the bears in this market are strongly forming a reversal pattern to the downside. A rising dollar, helped by a further hawkish shift by FOMC members, is additionally playing on the sellers' side.
If the third attempt to go below $2300 is successful for the bears, the gold price could move into the $2200 area rather quickly, as the area between these levels does not contain any previous significant stops. The next destination could be the $2070 area, which has been working as resistance for a long time.
If we are talking about important milestones on the way up, they are $2340 (50-day average), $2360 (previous peak), and $2450 (global high).
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
👍2
#WaveAnalysis
#USDCHF rising inside impulse wave i
Likely to reach resistance level 0.9000
USDCHF continues to rise inside the minor impulse wave i, which started earlier, when the pair reversed up from the key support level 0.8835, standing near the lower daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction level of the previous upward impulse from December.
The upward reversal from the support level 0.8835 created the perfectly formed Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Morning Star.
Given the continuation of the Swiss franc sales and USD bullish sentiment seen today, USDCHF can be expected to rise toward the next round resistance level 0.9000 (former strong support from April and May).
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
#USDCHF rising inside impulse wave i
Likely to reach resistance level 0.9000
USDCHF continues to rise inside the minor impulse wave i, which started earlier, when the pair reversed up from the key support level 0.8835, standing near the lower daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction level of the previous upward impulse from December.
The upward reversal from the support level 0.8835 created the perfectly formed Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Morning Star.
Given the continuation of the Swiss franc sales and USD bullish sentiment seen today, USDCHF can be expected to rise toward the next round resistance level 0.9000 (former strong support from April and May).
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
👍3
#WaveAnalysis #AAPL
Apple rising inside impulse wave 3
Likely to rise to resistance level 218.60
Apple recently reversed up from the 38.2% Fibonacci correction level of the previous sharp upward impulse from May.
The upward reversal from this support level stopped the previous short-term ABC correction 2 from the start of June.
Given the clear daily uptrend and the improvement in risk sentiment seen across the USA markets today, Apple can be expected to rise further in the active impulse wave 3 to the next resistance level 218.60 (which stopped the earlier waves v and b).
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
Apple rising inside impulse wave 3
Likely to rise to resistance level 218.60
Apple recently reversed up from the 38.2% Fibonacci correction level of the previous sharp upward impulse from May.
The upward reversal from this support level stopped the previous short-term ABC correction 2 from the start of June.
Given the clear daily uptrend and the improvement in risk sentiment seen across the USA markets today, Apple can be expected to rise further in the active impulse wave 3 to the next resistance level 218.60 (which stopped the earlier waves v and b).
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
👍2
#Crypto market has been under moderate but persistent pressure throughout Wednesday, losing 1.26% over the past 24h to $2.24 trillion. Prices of top coins are down, except for Toncoin (+1.6% in 24h and 19% for 30 days), and Tron (+0.4% in 24h and +10% for 30 days).
#Bitcoin is trading near $60.7K, having clawed back nearly half of the rebound from Monday's lows. After the market met the long-overdue demand for spot ETFs, selling by miners and long-term holders began to have a noticeable impact on quotes. Neutral to neat pressure sentiment on global markets is also negative for BTC.
#XRP went back to $0.4640, the area of this month's lows and a support level for the last year. Sellers have been pushing quotes for the past 5 weeks. Earlier this year, the price broke key long-term support levels in the form of a trendline through the 2022 and 2023 lows and the 200 and 50-week averages. Without overall positivity in the crypto market, it could be a matter of days before the sell-off accelerates sharply.
#Bitcoin is trading near $60.7K, having clawed back nearly half of the rebound from Monday's lows. After the market met the long-overdue demand for spot ETFs, selling by miners and long-term holders began to have a noticeable impact on quotes. Neutral to neat pressure sentiment on global markets is also negative for BTC.
#XRP went back to $0.4640, the area of this month's lows and a support level for the last year. Sellers have been pushing quotes for the past 5 weeks. Earlier this year, the price broke key long-term support levels in the form of a trendline through the 2022 and 2023 lows and the 200 and 50-week averages. Without overall positivity in the crypto market, it could be a matter of days before the sell-off accelerates sharply.
👍1
#Review #USDJPY
Yen: a managing decline
The Japanese yen has fallen to its lowest since 1986 against the dollar and a historic low against the euro. Its YTD loss is 12.5%, the third-worst performance after the Nigerian naira and the Egyptian pound among the 36 most liquid global currencies.
This performance of the currency has the monetary and financial authorities in the Land of the Rising Sun publicly displeased. However, their anger is not as strong as it was in October 2022 and November 2023, when powerful currency interventions reversed the trend from decline to growth for months. It was not even as strong as in late April when the USDJPY pair was pushed back more than 4% in five trading days.
The persistent pressure on the yen is the result of fundamental forces. Japan's monetary policy remains ultrasoft, with the key rate at 0.1% versus the Fed's 5.25-5.50%, justifying a long-term carry trade.
Yen: a managing decline
The Japanese yen has fallen to its lowest since 1986 against the dollar and a historic low against the euro. Its YTD loss is 12.5%, the third-worst performance after the Nigerian naira and the Egyptian pound among the 36 most liquid global currencies.
This performance of the currency has the monetary and financial authorities in the Land of the Rising Sun publicly displeased. However, their anger is not as strong as it was in October 2022 and November 2023, when powerful currency interventions reversed the trend from decline to growth for months. It was not even as strong as in late April when the USDJPY pair was pushed back more than 4% in five trading days.
The persistent pressure on the yen is the result of fundamental forces. Japan's monetary policy remains ultrasoft, with the key rate at 0.1% versus the Fed's 5.25-5.50%, justifying a long-term carry trade.
👍1
The negativity on this topic is complemented by the disappointment of the portion of medium-term speculators who expected a more aggressive rate hike and winding down of the QE programme instead of one hike and discussion of reduced purchases.
Meanwhile, inflation is again showing signs of acceleration, although it is already near the target of 2% y/y, eating away at the value of yen savings.
We believe that the Japanese authorities' hands are virtually tied, and they will continue to say more than they do for several reasons. The low key rate is holding down the cost of servicing the largest government debt relative to GDP. The abundant QE programme makes the Bank of Japan the largest buyer of bonds and also indirectly funds the government.
A sharp change in these parameters would be a blow to public finances. Accelerating economic growth and rising tax revenues should offset this negative.
Meanwhile, inflation is again showing signs of acceleration, although it is already near the target of 2% y/y, eating away at the value of yen savings.
We believe that the Japanese authorities' hands are virtually tied, and they will continue to say more than they do for several reasons. The low key rate is holding down the cost of servicing the largest government debt relative to GDP. The abundant QE programme makes the Bank of Japan the largest buyer of bonds and also indirectly funds the government.
A sharp change in these parameters would be a blow to public finances. Accelerating economic growth and rising tax revenues should offset this negative.
👍1
However, macro indicators are weakly improving: the balance of payments is back in surplus, but the industrial production index is roughly where it was in the late 1980s, failing to feed into the 55% rise in USDJPY since early 2021.
Currency intervention in support of the yen is burning up FX Reserves, undermining the economy sustainability.
Without economic recovery, Japan is not interested in a yen reversal but only in easing volatility so as not to create currency shocks for businesses. At the end of May, the yen's nominal effective exchange rate was 9.8% lower, which is within the norm, although not a reason for calm.
In our view, the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan will continue to do the bare minimum necessary to contain the yen's decline unless it suddenly experiences an economic boom that will force the economy to keep from overheating. In this regard, it should not be surprising that USDJPY will continue to move upwards, hitting 38-year highs, erasing the merits of the Plaza Accord.
Currency intervention in support of the yen is burning up FX Reserves, undermining the economy sustainability.
Without economic recovery, Japan is not interested in a yen reversal but only in easing volatility so as not to create currency shocks for businesses. At the end of May, the yen's nominal effective exchange rate was 9.8% lower, which is within the norm, although not a reason for calm.
In our view, the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan will continue to do the bare minimum necessary to contain the yen's decline unless it suddenly experiences an economic boom that will force the economy to keep from overheating. In this regard, it should not be surprising that USDJPY will continue to move upwards, hitting 38-year highs, erasing the merits of the Plaza Accord.
👍1
#WaveAnalysis
#Gold reversed from support level 2300.00
Likely to rise to resistance level 2365.00
Gold recently reversed up from the pivotal support level 2300.00, which has been steadily reversing the price from the end of April, as can be seen below.
The support level 2300.00 was strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band and by the 38.2% Fibonacci correction level of the previous sharp upward impulse from March.
Given the clear daily uptrend and the strength of the support level 2300.00, Gold can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 2365.00 (which has been reversing the price from the start of June).
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
#Gold reversed from support level 2300.00
Likely to rise to resistance level 2365.00
Gold recently reversed up from the pivotal support level 2300.00, which has been steadily reversing the price from the end of April, as can be seen below.
The support level 2300.00 was strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band and by the 38.2% Fibonacci correction level of the previous sharp upward impulse from March.
Given the clear daily uptrend and the strength of the support level 2300.00, Gold can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 2365.00 (which has been reversing the price from the start of June).
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
👍2
#WaveAnalysis #NatGas
Natural gas reversed from resistance zone
Likely to fall to support level 2.6000
Natural gas recently reversed down from the resistance zone located between the resistance levels 3.200 and 3.0000, which have been reversing the price from the start this year, as can be seen below.
The aforementioned resistance zone was further strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band.
Natural gas can be expected to fall further to the next pivotal support 2.6000, target price for the completion of the active impulse wave C of the higher order ABC correction (2) from the start of June.
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
Natural gas reversed from resistance zone
Likely to fall to support level 2.6000
Natural gas recently reversed down from the resistance zone located between the resistance levels 3.200 and 3.0000, which have been reversing the price from the start this year, as can be seen below.
The aforementioned resistance zone was further strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band.
Natural gas can be expected to fall further to the next pivotal support 2.6000, target price for the completion of the active impulse wave C of the higher order ABC correction (2) from the start of June.
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
❤2👏2
#WaveAnalysis #ADBE
Adobe rising in inside accelerated impulse wave C
Likely to reach resistance level 580.00
Adobe recently broke through the resistance zone located between the resistance level 530.00 and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp downward impulse wave (1) from the end of January.
The breakout of this resistance zone accelerated the active sharp impulse wave C of the intermediate ABC correction (2) from the end of May.
Adobe can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 580.00, which stopped the earlier waves a and 2, target price for the completion of the active ABC correction (2).
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
Adobe rising in inside accelerated impulse wave C
Likely to reach resistance level 580.00
Adobe recently broke through the resistance zone located between the resistance level 530.00 and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp downward impulse wave (1) from the end of January.
The breakout of this resistance zone accelerated the active sharp impulse wave C of the intermediate ABC correction (2) from the end of May.
Adobe can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 580.00, which stopped the earlier waves a and 2, target price for the completion of the active ABC correction (2).
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
👍1
#WaveAnalysis #MMM
3M reversed from strong resistance level 103.55
Likely to fall to support level 100.00
3M today reversed down once again from the resistance zone set between the strong resistance level 103.55 (which has been reversing the price from March) and the upper daily Bollinger Band.
The downward reversal from this resistance zone is likely to form the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Shooting Star – if 3M closes this week near the current levels.
Given the strength of the nearby resistance level 580.00, 3M can be expected to fall further toward the next round support level 100.00, which has been reversing the price from the start of June.
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
3M reversed from strong resistance level 103.55
Likely to fall to support level 100.00
3M today reversed down once again from the resistance zone set between the strong resistance level 103.55 (which has been reversing the price from March) and the upper daily Bollinger Band.
The downward reversal from this resistance zone is likely to form the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Shooting Star – if 3M closes this week near the current levels.
Given the strength of the nearby resistance level 580.00, 3M can be expected to fall further toward the next round support level 100.00, which has been reversing the price from the start of June.
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
👍1
#Crypto market has been enjoying an influx of buyers since Saturday, with a visible acceleration on Monday. Over the past 24 hours, cap has risen 3.6% to $2.33 trillion. Last week’s drop in the crypto sentiment index to 30 (fear zone) reversed the price twice, as the market is dominated by a ‘buy the dip’ pattern.
#Bitcoin is trading near $63.3K, adding 5% since Saturday morning and reaffirming the importance of support at 61.8% of the Jan-March rally. From another perspective, Bitcoin is adding and bouncing off the lower boundary of the downward channel. Likely, the price is now moving towards the upper boundary at $67K. However, cautious buyers may prefer to wait for confirmation with the price rising above $72-73K - the pivot area of the last four months - which would be confirmation of the start of a new impulsive wave of growth.
Bitcoin ended June down 8.5% to $61.9K. July is considered successful for BTC, as it adds 8 times (22.3% on average) out of the last 13 and drops 5 times (-7.8% on average).
#Bitcoin is trading near $63.3K, adding 5% since Saturday morning and reaffirming the importance of support at 61.8% of the Jan-March rally. From another perspective, Bitcoin is adding and bouncing off the lower boundary of the downward channel. Likely, the price is now moving towards the upper boundary at $67K. However, cautious buyers may prefer to wait for confirmation with the price rising above $72-73K - the pivot area of the last four months - which would be confirmation of the start of a new impulsive wave of growth.
Bitcoin ended June down 8.5% to $61.9K. July is considered successful for BTC, as it adds 8 times (22.3% on average) out of the last 13 and drops 5 times (-7.8% on average).
👍2
#WaveAnalysis
#AUDUSD reversed from strong resistance zone
Likely to fall to support level 0.6620
AUDUSD currency pair recently reversed down from the strong resistance zone located between the key resistance level 0.6685 (which has been steadily reversing the price from the start of May) and the upper daily Bollinger Band.
This resistance zone was further strengthened by the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the previous downward impulse from December.
AUDUSD currency pair can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 0.6620 (former minor support from the end of June).
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
#AUDUSD reversed from strong resistance zone
Likely to fall to support level 0.6620
AUDUSD currency pair recently reversed down from the strong resistance zone located between the key resistance level 0.6685 (which has been steadily reversing the price from the start of May) and the upper daily Bollinger Band.
This resistance zone was further strengthened by the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the previous downward impulse from December.
AUDUSD currency pair can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 0.6620 (former minor support from the end of June).
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
👍1
#WaveAnalysis
#EURCAD reversed from support zone
Likely to rise to resistance level 1.4780
EURCAD recently reversed up with the daily Hammer from the support zone located between the key support level 1.4580 (which has been reversing the price from the start of April) and the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from this support zone started the active minor ABC correction 2.
Given the strength of the support level 1.4580, EURCAD currency pair can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 1.4780 (former pivotal support from May).
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
#EURCAD reversed from support zone
Likely to rise to resistance level 1.4780
EURCAD recently reversed up with the daily Hammer from the support zone located between the key support level 1.4580 (which has been reversing the price from the start of April) and the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from this support zone started the active minor ABC correction 2.
Given the strength of the support level 1.4580, EURCAD currency pair can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 1.4780 (former pivotal support from May).
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
👍2
#Crypto retreated by 0.6% in 24 hours to a total cap of $2.31 trillion. Temporary institutional favourites are suffering losses due to the pull from risk and a stronger dollar. However, the dynamics of coins are not homogeneous. The decline of more than 1% in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and BNB contrasts with the 2.5%+ growth of Toncoin, Cardano, and Tron.
#Bitcoin has pulled back to $62.6K after two failed attempts to break above $63.0K on Monday. Continued market wariness could bring the price back to retest the $60K area in the near term.
At the end of last month, volatility in #XRP was falling after the price returned to the most important support of the last 12 months. Since Saturday, there has been a dominance of buyers, keeping the balance of power on the bullish side until Tuesday morning. In our view, confirmation of the bullish trend recovery is required, which could be a retracement of the $0.50 price where the important round level and the 50-day MA are combined.
#Bitcoin has pulled back to $62.6K after two failed attempts to break above $63.0K on Monday. Continued market wariness could bring the price back to retest the $60K area in the near term.
At the end of last month, volatility in #XRP was falling after the price returned to the most important support of the last 12 months. Since Saturday, there has been a dominance of buyers, keeping the balance of power on the bullish side until Tuesday morning. In our view, confirmation of the bullish trend recovery is required, which could be a retracement of the $0.50 price where the important round level and the 50-day MA are combined.
👍1
#Review
Dollar Rises on Other Currencies’ Problems
The US dollar has been settling near two-month highs since late last week, but this is a pick of the best among the worst. Expectations for the Fed’s key year-end rate have changed little over the past roughly three weeks. Still, the dollar’s main competitors have faced their difficulties one after another, coming under selling pressure.
Political uncertainty remains over France and the UK due to expectations of opposition parties coming to power. Some investors fear accelerating de-globalisation, which is seen as negative by global investors. The results of the first round in France spurred the euro only briefly, and by midday on Tuesday, #EURUSD again approached 1.0710, where it spent the second half of June. It is worth noting that this euro sell-off is also supported by declines in bonds and the equity market.
Dollar Rises on Other Currencies’ Problems
The US dollar has been settling near two-month highs since late last week, but this is a pick of the best among the worst. Expectations for the Fed’s key year-end rate have changed little over the past roughly three weeks. Still, the dollar’s main competitors have faced their difficulties one after another, coming under selling pressure.
Political uncertainty remains over France and the UK due to expectations of opposition parties coming to power. Some investors fear accelerating de-globalisation, which is seen as negative by global investors. The results of the first round in France spurred the euro only briefly, and by midday on Tuesday, #EURUSD again approached 1.0710, where it spent the second half of June. It is worth noting that this euro sell-off is also supported by declines in bonds and the equity market.
👍1
The slightly less one-note but highly dramatic story in the yen continues. The #USDJPY has been hitting highs since 1986, rising to 161.6. The pair has been selling off since the beginning of the week, touching 161.7, but minor pullbacks do not allow for shock-and-awe interventions that could reverse the momentum. Japan’s stock market is taking advantage of the yen’s weakness, trying to return to levels above 40000 on the Nikkei225, despite the decline in key global benchmarks.
The Swiss franc is giving up ground almost daily following the Swiss Central Bank’s second consecutive policy easing on 20 June, taking #USDCHF back above 0.90, a one-month high.
The Swiss franc is giving up ground almost daily following the Swiss Central Bank’s second consecutive policy easing on 20 June, taking #USDCHF back above 0.90, a one-month high.
👍1
Technically, the #DXY Dollar Index continues to hover near the lower boundary of the rising channel. The dollar needs to rise another 0.5% to confirm this upward trend, breaking the area of previous peaks. If the bulls are successful at this stage, the dollar will be able to grow to the upper boundary of the corridor (now at 109), which has the potential to strengthen by about 3% to the current levels.
A more hawkish tone of the central bank officials compared to Europe and more robust economic growth figures will help the USD on this growth path, promising less active easing of monetary policy conditions in the foreseeable future.
A continued bullish bias for the dollar threatens to push EURUSD back below 1.05 before the end of summer, where the pair briefly dipped in early October 2023.
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
A more hawkish tone of the central bank officials compared to Europe and more robust economic growth figures will help the USD on this growth path, promising less active easing of monetary policy conditions in the foreseeable future.
A continued bullish bias for the dollar threatens to push EURUSD back below 1.05 before the end of summer, where the pair briefly dipped in early October 2023.
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
👍1