The other bad news was the slowdown in industrial production growth to 5.6% from 6.7% a month earlier, worse than the expected 6.2%. The slowing trend in China's industrial growth has been in place since the peak in February. China's industrial production can be seen as a leading indicator of the global economy, and the fresh data raises the risk of a recession in developed economies before the end of the year. Fixed asset investment is also losing momentum, falling to 4.0% against a peak of 4.5% in March and an expected 4.2%.
Retail sales, on the other hand, strengthened growth and beat expectations. The year-to-date gain to May was 3.7% vs. 2.3% previously and 3.0% expected. It cannot be ruled out that this is only a temporary surge, and its positive effect is unlikely to be global.
Retail sales, on the other hand, strengthened growth and beat expectations. The year-to-date gain to May was 3.7% vs. 2.3% previously and 3.0% expected. It cannot be ruled out that this is only a temporary surge, and its positive effect is unlikely to be global.
❤1👍1
These data and statistical reports last week failed to lift renminbi volatility. The USDCNH pair seems to have found its ceiling just below 7.27, having been turning downwards from there since the end of March. That said, the downside momentum is getting smaller and smaller, preparing us for a new floor.
Next, which seems to be more important for the Chinese authorities, is 7.35. From here, USDCNH was actively sold from August to November last year, and there was a powerful reversal in November 2022. The yuan will be able to sag to this level if there is still a pullback from risks and towards the dollar in global markets. But it will probably take an economic crisis to overcome it.
Technically, it is now more comfortable to be bullish in USDCNH as the previous 2019-2020 global "ceiling" below 7.20 this year works as a "floor".
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
Next, which seems to be more important for the Chinese authorities, is 7.35. From here, USDCNH was actively sold from August to November last year, and there was a powerful reversal in November 2022. The yuan will be able to sag to this level if there is still a pullback from risks and towards the dollar in global markets. But it will probably take an economic crisis to overcome it.
Technically, it is now more comfortable to be bullish in USDCNH as the previous 2019-2020 global "ceiling" below 7.20 this year works as a "floor".
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
👍1
#WaveAnalysis #AAPL
– Apple reversed from resistance zone
– Likely to fall to support level 205.00
Apple recently reversed down from the resistance zone located between the resistance level 215.00 and the resistance trendline of the wide weekly up channel from last year.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 215.00 created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Long-legged Doji.
Given the strength of the resistance level 215.00, Apple can be expected to fall further to the next support level 205.00, target for the completion of the active wave iv.
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
– Apple reversed from resistance zone
– Likely to fall to support level 205.00
Apple recently reversed down from the resistance zone located between the resistance level 215.00 and the resistance trendline of the wide weekly up channel from last year.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 215.00 created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Long-legged Doji.
Given the strength of the resistance level 215.00, Apple can be expected to fall further to the next support level 205.00, target for the completion of the active wave iv.
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
👍1
CAC40 could lose another 9%, breaking the upward trend
French stocks were under intense pressure last week due to political fears. Although paused on Monday, that sell-off has probably already undermined index gains.
France’s CAC40 (#France40) lost 6.2% last week, the sharpest decline in two years, and the sell-off only gained momentum on Friday. The new Monday started with a rise after reassuring words from Marine Le Pen about respect for European institutions. Recovering from last week’s sell-off, the CAC40 is adding 0.6 per cent to Friday’s closing level - half of what it was shortly after the start of trading. However, technical analysis is setting up further declines.
On daily timeframes, the CAC40 accelerated its decline late last month with a dip under its 50-day moving average. Late last week, it broke and consolidated below the 200-day moving average in a sharp move. Thus, the medium—and long-term uptrend broke down over three weeks. The RSI fell below 25 on Friday, the oversold area.
French stocks were under intense pressure last week due to political fears. Although paused on Monday, that sell-off has probably already undermined index gains.
France’s CAC40 (#France40) lost 6.2% last week, the sharpest decline in two years, and the sell-off only gained momentum on Friday. The new Monday started with a rise after reassuring words from Marine Le Pen about respect for European institutions. Recovering from last week’s sell-off, the CAC40 is adding 0.6 per cent to Friday’s closing level - half of what it was shortly after the start of trading. However, technical analysis is setting up further declines.
On daily timeframes, the CAC40 accelerated its decline late last month with a dip under its 50-day moving average. Late last week, it broke and consolidated below the 200-day moving average in a sharp move. Thus, the medium—and long-term uptrend broke down over three weeks. The RSI fell below 25 on Friday, the oversold area.
👍1
However, the last time the index was this low was in February-March 2020, and after the RSI first touched this level, the CAC40 fell 35% before reversing. Clearly, the current degree of oversold French equities is not a buy signal. It is prudent to wait for a recovery to the area above 30 on the RSI.
It is also worth being prepared that the French equity index is heading towards the lows of October and March last year at 6800 from the current 7527.
An alternative optimistic scenario suggests that the French equity market will get support on the dip to the 7320-7520 area if last year’s April-September resistance area becomes support.
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
It is also worth being prepared that the French equity index is heading towards the lows of October and March last year at 6800 from the current 7527.
An alternative optimistic scenario suggests that the French equity market will get support on the dip to the 7320-7520 area if last year’s April-September resistance area becomes support.
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
👍3
#WaveAnalysis #COST
– Costco broke resistance level 855.00
– Likely to rise to resistance level 880.00
Costco recently broke the resistance level 855.00, which stopped the previous impulse wave 1at the start of June, as can be seen from the daily Costco chart below.
The breakout of the resistance level 855.00 coincided with the breakout of the resistance trendline of the daily up channel from April – which accelerated the active impulse wave 3.
Given the clear daily uptrend, Costco can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 880.00, target for the completion of the active correction (B).
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
– Costco broke resistance level 855.00
– Likely to rise to resistance level 880.00
Costco recently broke the resistance level 855.00, which stopped the previous impulse wave 1at the start of June, as can be seen from the daily Costco chart below.
The breakout of the resistance level 855.00 coincided with the breakout of the resistance trendline of the daily up channel from April – which accelerated the active impulse wave 3.
Given the clear daily uptrend, Costco can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 880.00, target for the completion of the active correction (B).
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
❤3👍1
#WaveAnalysis #F
– Ford reversed from key support level 11.50
– Likely to rise to resistance level 12.40
Ford recently reversed up from the key support level 11.50 (which has been steadily reversing the price from the start of February) coinciding with the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from the support level 11.50 created the daily Hammer – which stopped the previous ABC correction (2).
Given the strength of the support level 11.50, Ford can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 12.40, top of the previous impulse wave (1).
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
– Ford reversed from key support level 11.50
– Likely to rise to resistance level 12.40
Ford recently reversed up from the key support level 11.50 (which has been steadily reversing the price from the start of February) coinciding with the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from the support level 11.50 created the daily Hammer – which stopped the previous ABC correction (2).
Given the strength of the support level 11.50, Ford can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 12.40, top of the previous impulse wave (1).
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
👍1
In 24 hours, the #crypto cap fell 2.2% to $2.36 trillion. Bitcoin’s relatively moderate 1% decline contrasts with a much deeper dive in altcoins. Ethereum fell 3.3%, Solana plunged 7.8%, and Dogecoin dropped 9.2%.
The main momentum came in early Asian trading, showing that the bears have the upper hand in crypto. This is somewhat surprising given the impressive rally in the US Indices.
#Bitcoin was down to $64.5K this morning, its lowest since 15 May. It has been declining for the past 12 days. It's also attempting to gain ground below the 50-day MA and the 76.4% retracement from the January-March rise.
#Solana has lost over 20% in 12 days of active declines, and the selling is picking up. At one point intraday on Tuesday, losses exceeded 11% but are down to 4.5% at the time of writing. The sell-off hunters came in buying on a touch of the 200-day MA. The latest slip may turn the market to the upside for the coming days, as it did in April at roughly these same levels.
The main momentum came in early Asian trading, showing that the bears have the upper hand in crypto. This is somewhat surprising given the impressive rally in the US Indices.
#Bitcoin was down to $64.5K this morning, its lowest since 15 May. It has been declining for the past 12 days. It's also attempting to gain ground below the 50-day MA and the 76.4% retracement from the January-March rise.
#Solana has lost over 20% in 12 days of active declines, and the selling is picking up. At one point intraday on Tuesday, losses exceeded 11% but are down to 4.5% at the time of writing. The sell-off hunters came in buying on a touch of the 200-day MA. The latest slip may turn the market to the upside for the coming days, as it did in April at roughly these same levels.
👍1
RBA readiness to hike is positive for AUD
The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its key rate at a 12-year high of 4.35%. The market widely expected the decision, so it did not cause a spike in volatility. However, we note that the RBA warned that it was ready to raise the rate.
In its commentary on the rate decision, the Australian central bank emphasised that inflation is roughly at the same level as in December, at 3.6% y/y overall and 4.1% y/y with the exclusion of volatile components.
Despite the normalising trend, the economy remains in excess demand; employment is above sustainable full employment; wage growth is above productivity gains.
A "wait-and-see" approach is reasonable in this situation. However, the RBA still notes a shift in risks towards pro-inflationary risks and indicates a willingness to change the rate in either direction — an important shift from the dovish rhetoric of the second half of last year.
The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its key rate at a 12-year high of 4.35%. The market widely expected the decision, so it did not cause a spike in volatility. However, we note that the RBA warned that it was ready to raise the rate.
In its commentary on the rate decision, the Australian central bank emphasised that inflation is roughly at the same level as in December, at 3.6% y/y overall and 4.1% y/y with the exclusion of volatile components.
Despite the normalising trend, the economy remains in excess demand; employment is above sustainable full employment; wage growth is above productivity gains.
A "wait-and-see" approach is reasonable in this situation. However, the RBA still notes a shift in risks towards pro-inflationary risks and indicates a willingness to change the rate in either direction — an important shift from the dovish rhetoric of the second half of last year.
👍1
While we haven't seen a meaningful reaction from AUDUSD, it is performing better than its major peers. It is losing 0.5% this month against the dollar index, which is strengthening over 1%.
The Aussie has not dipped below 0.66 for long since early May, making the 50-day moving average an active support line, and is steady above the 200-day average. Both curves are pointing upwards, emphasising the positive trend.
AUDUSD has been recording higher yearly lows for the past two years, marking increased buying interest on downturns.
The strength of the US Dollar this month is making it harder for the AUD to rise, hindered both by strengthening the denominator and by impacting the price of commodities and metals that Australia exports.
The Aussie has not dipped below 0.66 for long since early May, making the 50-day moving average an active support line, and is steady above the 200-day average. Both curves are pointing upwards, emphasising the positive trend.
AUDUSD has been recording higher yearly lows for the past two years, marking increased buying interest on downturns.
The strength of the US Dollar this month is making it harder for the AUD to rise, hindered both by strengthening the denominator and by impacting the price of commodities and metals that Australia exports.
👍1
Potential buyers are probably better off waiting for AUDUSD to break above 0.67, where we saw a reversal last month. It would also break the sequence of lower local highs seen over the past three years and at an even higher level since 2011.
A reversal in the tone of monetary policy has the potential to feed AUDUSD buying, adding to the local positive picture. The ability to break the long-term downtrend could attract even more buyers, launching a rally.
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
A reversal in the tone of monetary policy has the potential to feed AUDUSD buying, adding to the local positive picture. The ability to break the long-term downtrend could attract even more buyers, launching a rally.
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
👍1
Jump in US manufacturing and consumer caution
US retail sales rose 0.1% in value for May, worse than the 0.3% rise expected after a 0.2% decline a month earlier. Total sales were 2.5% higher than a year earlier, lagging the 3.3% inflation over the same period.
In other words, there was a decline in consumption in real terms. At first glance, this is surprising given that wages are adding at a 4.0% y/y rate, and employment is growing steadily. However, adding to the equation the soaring cost of servicing credit card debt and a very low savings rate by historical standards, things start to look up.
We don't see a decline in consumption as we do in times of crisis, but a clear slowdown that may precede it.
US retail sales rose 0.1% in value for May, worse than the 0.3% rise expected after a 0.2% decline a month earlier. Total sales were 2.5% higher than a year earlier, lagging the 3.3% inflation over the same period.
In other words, there was a decline in consumption in real terms. At first glance, this is surprising given that wages are adding at a 4.0% y/y rate, and employment is growing steadily. However, adding to the equation the soaring cost of servicing credit card debt and a very low savings rate by historical standards, things start to look up.
We don't see a decline in consumption as we do in times of crisis, but a clear slowdown that may precede it.
❤2👍1
At the same time, gloomy thoughts about the US economy are tempered by an impressive 0.9% jump in industrial production for May. This is more than twice as strong as expected. The industrial production index rose to its highest level since October 2022 and is only 0.8% below its historical peak reached in September 2018.
In summary, today's package of statistics points to a consumer shift towards a savings model but also refutes the most pessimistic expectations of a recession with a strong gain in manufacturing. This combination of data favours extending current rate levels, providing no food for either hawks or doves.
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
In summary, today's package of statistics points to a consumer shift towards a savings model but also refutes the most pessimistic expectations of a recession with a strong gain in manufacturing. This combination of data favours extending current rate levels, providing no food for either hawks or doves.
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
❤4👍1😁1
#WaveAnalysis
#AUDUSD reversed from key support level 0.6580
Likely to rise to resistance level 0.6700
AUDUSD currency pair recently reversed up from the key support level 0.6580 (which has been reversing the price from the start of May) coinciding with the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The support level 0.6580 was further strengthened by the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous upward impulse from April.
Given the strength of the support level 0.6580 and the strong USD sales, AUDUSD currency pair can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 0.6700, which stopped the previous waves 2, iv and ii.
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
#AUDUSD reversed from key support level 0.6580
Likely to rise to resistance level 0.6700
AUDUSD currency pair recently reversed up from the key support level 0.6580 (which has been reversing the price from the start of May) coinciding with the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The support level 0.6580 was further strengthened by the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous upward impulse from April.
Given the strength of the support level 0.6580 and the strong USD sales, AUDUSD currency pair can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 0.6700, which stopped the previous waves 2, iv and ii.
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
❤2👍1
#WaveAnalysis
#CADCHF broke key support level 0.6465
Likely to fall to support level 0.6400
CADCHF currency pair under the bearish pressure after breaking the key support level 0.6465 (which started the impulse wave C in February).
The breakout of the support level 0.6465 accelerated the active impulse waves 3 and iii, which belong to the higher impulse wave (C) from August.
CADCHF currency pair can be expected to fall further to the next support level 0.6400, low of wave iv, and the target for the completion of the active impulse wave 3.
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
#CADCHF broke key support level 0.6465
Likely to fall to support level 0.6400
CADCHF currency pair under the bearish pressure after breaking the key support level 0.6465 (which started the impulse wave C in February).
The breakout of the support level 0.6465 accelerated the active impulse waves 3 and iii, which belong to the higher impulse wave (C) from August.
CADCHF currency pair can be expected to fall further to the next support level 0.6400, low of wave iv, and the target for the completion of the active impulse wave 3.
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
❤1👍1
⚠️ SNB Rate Decision @7:30 GMT
No changes from 1.5% expected
📈📉Be ready for CHF volatility!
No changes from 1.5% expected
📈📉Be ready for CHF volatility!
#WaveAnalysis #UK100
– FTSE 100 index reversed from support level 8140.00
– Likely to rise to resistance level 8300.00
FTSE 100 index recently reversed up from the key support level 8140.00 (which has been reversing the price from the end of April), intersecting with the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from the support level 8140.00 completed the previous intermediate ABC correction (4).
Given the strength of the support level 8140.00, FTSE 100 index can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 8300.00, which stopped the price at the start of June.
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
– FTSE 100 index reversed from support level 8140.00
– Likely to rise to resistance level 8300.00
FTSE 100 index recently reversed up from the key support level 8140.00 (which has been reversing the price from the end of April), intersecting with the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from the support level 8140.00 completed the previous intermediate ABC correction (4).
Given the strength of the support level 8140.00, FTSE 100 index can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 8300.00, which stopped the price at the start of June.
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
👍1
#WaveAnalysis
– #USDCAD reversed from pivotal resistance level 1.3760
– Likely to fall to support level 1.3675
USDCAD currency pair under the bearish pressure after the price reversed down 3 times in a row from the pivotal resistance level 1.3760 (which has been reversing the price from the end of April).
Each of the last 3 downward reversals form the resistance level 1.3760 created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal patterns Hammer.
Given the strength of the resistance level 1.3760, USDCAD currency pair can be expected to fall further to the next support level 1.3675.
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
– #USDCAD reversed from pivotal resistance level 1.3760
– Likely to fall to support level 1.3675
USDCAD currency pair under the bearish pressure after the price reversed down 3 times in a row from the pivotal resistance level 1.3760 (which has been reversing the price from the end of April).
Each of the last 3 downward reversals form the resistance level 1.3760 created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal patterns Hammer.
Given the strength of the resistance level 1.3760, USDCAD currency pair can be expected to fall further to the next support level 1.3675.
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
👍1
The #crypto market added 1% in 24 hours to $2.4 trillion, supported by positive momentum in Bitcoin (+0.9%) and interest in Ethereum (+2%). Top altcoins are mostly adding except for falling Solana (-1.6%), but it too has been rising over the last hours. Toncoin is adding 4.9% over a day and 14% in 30 days, second only to Ethereum (+16%) in the top 20.
Technically, #Ethereum has already received its second support this month on the brief dip to the 50-day moving average. This looks like the market's commitment to the bullish trend that started last month. The news trigger for the rise was speculation about the likely start of trading in spot ETFs on the coin from July 2nd.
#Solana is probing support at the 200-day moving average. It managed to push back from this level to nearly $130. The focus now is on whether this rise will continue. This is the fourth time since March that the bulls have defended this area. But the very fact of constant returns to it speaks about the bears' persistence.
Technically, #Ethereum has already received its second support this month on the brief dip to the 50-day moving average. This looks like the market's commitment to the bullish trend that started last month. The news trigger for the rise was speculation about the likely start of trading in spot ETFs on the coin from July 2nd.
#Solana is probing support at the 200-day moving average. It managed to push back from this level to nearly $130. The focus now is on whether this rise will continue. This is the fourth time since March that the bulls have defended this area. But the very fact of constant returns to it speaks about the bears' persistence.
👍1