The #crypto market added 1.3% in 24 hours to $2.58 trillion. This is roughly the area where trading has been centred for the last week, despite attempts by speculators to rock the market. Volatility in the market has decreased, with prices of the major coins varying between -1.3% (Toncoin) and 3.3% (Solana), while Shiba Inu shot straight up 15% to its highest since early April.
#Bitcoin continues to hover near the upper edge of the descending range, building up strength before the next move. All we have to do is reiterate that an exit above $70K will break this bearish pattern. Until then, the classic development is a pullback to the lower boundary, but we see this as an alternative option, suggesting a further breakout after consolidation.
According to CoinShares, net inflows into crypto funds totalled $1.05bn last week, up from $932m a week earlier. Bitcoin investments were up $1.01bn, Ethereum was up $36m, and Solana was up $8m.
#Bitcoin continues to hover near the upper edge of the descending range, building up strength before the next move. All we have to do is reiterate that an exit above $70K will break this bearish pattern. Until then, the classic development is a pullback to the lower boundary, but we see this as an alternative option, suggesting a further breakout after consolidation.
According to CoinShares, net inflows into crypto funds totalled $1.05bn last week, up from $932m a week earlier. Bitcoin investments were up $1.01bn, Ethereum was up $36m, and Solana was up $8m.
Consumer inflation in Australia rose in April, contrary to the expected decline. Year-on-year price gains totalled 3.6% vs. 3.5% previously, and average forecasts of a decline to 3.4%.
The inflation rate reached a plateau late last year, falling to 3.4%, but has been ticking upward for the past two months.
Prices have added ten months out of the past 12. Their rise over the past four consecutive months removes the question of an imminent rate cut.
The inflation rate reached a plateau late last year, falling to 3.4%, but has been ticking upward for the past two months.
Prices have added ten months out of the past 12. Their rise over the past four consecutive months removes the question of an imminent rate cut.
Judging by the reaction of the currency market, traders are not laying down for a policy tightening. AUDUSD is facing stronger selling on attempts to rise above 0.6650.
This is an interesting development, given the rise in industrial metals prices and some recovery in trade with China in recent months.
The Australian currency's ability to break the multi-month resistance at 0.6650 would open the way to 0.6800, the pivot area of the past 12 months. The current currency market slack, alongside potentially bullish data, is also helping to create domestic pressure.
On the bears' side, however, is the weakness in retail sales, which saw a 0.1% m/m and 1.3% y/y rise in April.
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This is an interesting development, given the rise in industrial metals prices and some recovery in trade with China in recent months.
The Australian currency's ability to break the multi-month resistance at 0.6650 would open the way to 0.6800, the pivot area of the past 12 months. The current currency market slack, alongside potentially bullish data, is also helping to create domestic pressure.
On the bears' side, however, is the weakness in retail sales, which saw a 0.1% m/m and 1.3% y/y rise in April.
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German inflation confirmed an acceleration. Harmonised CPI rose to 2.8% vs 2.4% a month earlier and 2.3% in March. This is positive news for the Euro, which is lagging behind the Pound and relatively weak against the Dollar, based on expectations of a looser ECB monetary policy against rivals.
A fresh batch of data from Germany casts little doubt on the ECB members' widely announced policy easing on 6 June. Nevertheless, the acceleration in price growth, if sustained going forward, reduces the chances of the back-to-back cuts.
A sustained acceleration in inflation could revive interest in the euro, which earlier on Wednesday fell to its lowest in nearly two years. EURUSD has been hovering around 1.0850 for the past two weeks and could accelerate gains after a pause.
Potential weakness for the euro could come from the economic front, where an economic slowdown and sluggish lending, adding 0.2% to last year, the lowest since 2015, are increasingly evident.
A fresh batch of data from Germany casts little doubt on the ECB members' widely announced policy easing on 6 June. Nevertheless, the acceleration in price growth, if sustained going forward, reduces the chances of the back-to-back cuts.
A sustained acceleration in inflation could revive interest in the euro, which earlier on Wednesday fell to its lowest in nearly two years. EURUSD has been hovering around 1.0850 for the past two weeks and could accelerate gains after a pause.
Potential weakness for the euro could come from the economic front, where an economic slowdown and sluggish lending, adding 0.2% to last year, the lowest since 2015, are increasingly evident.
#WaveAnalysis #MCD
McDonald’s under strong bearish pressure
Likely to fall to support level 250.00
McDonald’s Corp under the strong bearish pressure after the price broke the key support level 261.40, which stopped the previous minor impulse wave i at the end of April.
The breakout of the support level 261.40 accelerated the active impulse wave c of the minor ABC correction 2 from January.
McDonald’s can be expected to fall further to the next support level 250.00, target price for the competition of the active impulse wave c.
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McDonald’s under strong bearish pressure
Likely to fall to support level 250.00
McDonald’s Corp under the strong bearish pressure after the price broke the key support level 261.40, which stopped the previous minor impulse wave i at the end of April.
The breakout of the support level 261.40 accelerated the active impulse wave c of the minor ABC correction 2 from January.
McDonald’s can be expected to fall further to the next support level 250.00, target price for the competition of the active impulse wave c.
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#WaveAnalysis
#USDJPY reversed from key support level 156.50
Likely to rise to resistance level 160.00
USDJPY currency pair recently reversed up from the key support level 156.50, former resistance which stopped the previous minor impulse wave i at the start of May.
The upward reversal from the support level 156.50 continued the active minor impulse wave iii.
Given the clear daily uptrend and the strong yen sales, USDJPY currency pair can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 160.00 (top of wave 1 and the target for the completion of the active impulse wave iii).
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#USDJPY reversed from key support level 156.50
Likely to rise to resistance level 160.00
USDJPY currency pair recently reversed up from the key support level 156.50, former resistance which stopped the previous minor impulse wave i at the start of May.
The upward reversal from the support level 156.50 continued the active minor impulse wave iii.
Given the clear daily uptrend and the strong yen sales, USDJPY currency pair can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 160.00 (top of wave 1 and the target for the completion of the active impulse wave iii).
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#WaveAnalysis
#GBPUSD reversed from resistance level 1.2800
Likely to fall to support level 1.2675
GBPUSD currency pair recently reversed down from the key resistance level 1.2800, which has been repeatedly reversing the price from December.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 1.2800 is likely to form the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Evening Star Doji.
Given the strength of the resistance level 1.2800, GBPUSD currency pair can be expected to fall further to the next support level 1.2675 (low of the previous correction ii).
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#GBPUSD reversed from resistance level 1.2800
Likely to fall to support level 1.2675
GBPUSD currency pair recently reversed down from the key resistance level 1.2800, which has been repeatedly reversing the price from December.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 1.2800 is likely to form the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Evening Star Doji.
Given the strength of the resistance level 1.2800, GBPUSD currency pair can be expected to fall further to the next support level 1.2675 (low of the previous correction ii).
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The #crypto market has lost almost 2% of its cap in the last 24 hours to $2.51 trillion. Bitcoin is holding up better than the market, pulling back only 0.7% to $67.6K. Many top coins have deeper drawdowns. Ethereum loses almost 3%, BNB loses 1.6%, and Solana loses 2.6%. Meme coins are under fiercer pressure. With no meaningful drivers of its own, the crypto market has come under indirect pressure due to the stock market.
So far, there are more indications that #Bitcoin is moving within a pullback scenario from the upper end of the range. In the most bearish scenario, the price could roll back to $60K. A more optimistic scenario suggests a decline to the $65K area, where the 50-day moving average lies.
Glassnode recorded signs of a recovery in buyer interest in Bitcoin. Long-term BTC holders (those holding the asset for more than 155 days) have resumed accumulation for the first time since December 2023 after months of selling.
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So far, there are more indications that #Bitcoin is moving within a pullback scenario from the upper end of the range. In the most bearish scenario, the price could roll back to $60K. A more optimistic scenario suggests a decline to the $65K area, where the 50-day moving average lies.
Glassnode recorded signs of a recovery in buyer interest in Bitcoin. Long-term BTC holders (those holding the asset for more than 155 days) have resumed accumulation for the first time since December 2023 after months of selling.
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Oil's upward trend that started in December stopped in April with an impressive 12% correction. But it failed to develop, and throughout May, we saw fluctuations around the $78 average level with increasing amplitude.
Technically, the failure to develop a rise above the 200-day average is a sign that the bears are in control. The same is evidenced by the 50-day average above price and reversing downward during May.
The news media has been thickening the colours by pointing out the fall in discipline within OPEC+, which is producing well above quota, so the market is not creating an oil shortage and lower inventories as the cartel's forecasts promise.
In 2014, Saudi Arabia, the leader of the cartel that provides the largest voluntary production cuts, had already surprised the world by suddenly expressing support for lifting the restrictions, which set off oil price wars.
Technically, the failure to develop a rise above the 200-day average is a sign that the bears are in control. The same is evidenced by the 50-day average above price and reversing downward during May.
The news media has been thickening the colours by pointing out the fall in discipline within OPEC+, which is producing well above quota, so the market is not creating an oil shortage and lower inventories as the cartel's forecasts promise.
In 2014, Saudi Arabia, the leader of the cartel that provides the largest voluntary production cuts, had already surprised the world by suddenly expressing support for lifting the restrictions, which set off oil price wars.
But that strategy failed, eventually bringing the cartel to OPEC+, which includes members who agree on their production quotas but are officially in it, led by Russia.
So far, there is little sign that Saudi Arabia or Russia will return to the practice of oil wars. Nevertheless, for a rather fragile market, even a signal that no further cuts are expected and that the agreed quotas will be gradually raised could be a sufficient reason to sell off.
Special attention, in our view, should be paid to the support in the form of the 200-week moving average, which invariably triggered the cartel's response. It is now nearly $75. A decisive decline below it will indicate a change in the market regime.
The bullish scenario assumes that the price's proximity to the sensitive zone for the meeting will force OPEC+ to choose a tougher tone in its comments and promises, bringing oil back to growth. In this case, an important marker would be the ability to rise above $80.
So far, there is little sign that Saudi Arabia or Russia will return to the practice of oil wars. Nevertheless, for a rather fragile market, even a signal that no further cuts are expected and that the agreed quotas will be gradually raised could be a sufficient reason to sell off.
Special attention, in our view, should be paid to the support in the form of the 200-week moving average, which invariably triggered the cartel's response. It is now nearly $75. A decisive decline below it will indicate a change in the market regime.
The bullish scenario assumes that the price's proximity to the sensitive zone for the meeting will force OPEC+ to choose a tougher tone in its comments and promises, bringing oil back to growth. In this case, an important marker would be the ability to rise above $80.
#WaveAnalysis
#CHFJPY broke key resistance level 172.50
Likely to rise to resistance level 174.00
CHFJPY currency pair recently broke above the key resistance level 172.50, which has been repeatedly reversing the price from the end of April.
The breakout of the resistance level 172.50 should accelerate the active minor impulse wave 3 of the higher order impulse wave (3) from the start of May.
Given the clear daily uptrend and the continuation of the yen sales, CHFJPY currency pair can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 174.00.
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#CHFJPY broke key resistance level 172.50
Likely to rise to resistance level 174.00
CHFJPY currency pair recently broke above the key resistance level 172.50, which has been repeatedly reversing the price from the end of April.
The breakout of the resistance level 172.50 should accelerate the active minor impulse wave 3 of the higher order impulse wave (3) from the start of May.
Given the clear daily uptrend and the continuation of the yen sales, CHFJPY currency pair can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 174.00.
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The cryptocurrency market increased modestly by 0.35% in 24 hours to $2.53 trillion. Bitcoin rose by 0.7% in that time, Ethereum changed a little, and many altcoins came under slight pressure.
#Bitcoin continues to hang out under the resistance of the descending corridor, where a temporary balance seems to have been found, having been here for 11 days.
Altcoins have a little more gloom. #XRP, Cardano, and Litecoin are moving downwards, sticking to their 50-day moving averages for more than a week now. The market is clearly taking its time getting rid of former stars. It's a logical process, but as applied to cryptocurrencies, it also says that we're not yet in FOMO mode when all the names are added up.
#Bitcoin continues to hang out under the resistance of the descending corridor, where a temporary balance seems to have been found, having been here for 11 days.
Altcoins have a little more gloom. #XRP, Cardano, and Litecoin are moving downwards, sticking to their 50-day moving averages for more than a week now. The market is clearly taking its time getting rid of former stars. It's a logical process, but as applied to cryptocurrencies, it also says that we're not yet in FOMO mode when all the names are added up.
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The US S&P500 and Nasdaq100 have declined for the past three days, with futures pointing to a negative opening on Friday. Dow Jones has almost erased the gains of the first half of May, losing for the past ten days. However, European indices are adding, clinging to significant support levels.
Germany's #DAX40 pulled back to its 50-day moving average earlier in the week, where buying activity intensified. Touching this line could be the fifth time since the beginning of the year which attracted bargain hunters. At this point, we can state at least a pause in the sell-off. The index near 18500 has now pulled back to the area of the previous peak at the end of March.
Under this scenario, the DAX40 will then aim to renew historical highs and overcome 19000.
The alternative scenario will be triggered in case of a sharp failure of the index under 18350, where the 50-day average now runs, which will be the first signal of the start of the correction. A move below 18250 would be the confirmation.
Germany's #DAX40 pulled back to its 50-day moving average earlier in the week, where buying activity intensified. Touching this line could be the fifth time since the beginning of the year which attracted bargain hunters. At this point, we can state at least a pause in the sell-off. The index near 18500 has now pulled back to the area of the previous peak at the end of March.
Under this scenario, the DAX40 will then aim to renew historical highs and overcome 19000.
The alternative scenario will be triggered in case of a sharp failure of the index under 18350, where the 50-day average now runs, which will be the first signal of the start of the correction. A move below 18250 would be the confirmation.
The British #FTSE100 is showing even more revival, having added almost 1.5% to the lows at the start of the day on Thursday. Here, buyers got into the game on the approach to 8150, an area of short-term support at the end of April.
Profit-taking in UK equities seems to have ended a little earlier than we expected, as we anticipated a fall to 8125, where the 50-day MA and the 50% retracement area from the rise from the April lows intersect.
If the corrective activity is indeed over, the FTSE100 could return to renewed highs above 8500 in the next few weeks.
However, it cannot be ruled out that the negativity from the US indices will drag Europe down with it and make it unable to resist this negativity. In this case, the first alarm bell would fall below 8125, and more reliable would be the FTSE100 dipping below 8100.
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Profit-taking in UK equities seems to have ended a little earlier than we expected, as we anticipated a fall to 8125, where the 50-day MA and the 50% retracement area from the rise from the April lows intersect.
If the corrective activity is indeed over, the FTSE100 could return to renewed highs above 8500 in the next few weeks.
However, it cannot be ruled out that the negativity from the US indices will drag Europe down with it and make it unable to resist this negativity. In this case, the first alarm bell would fall below 8125, and more reliable would be the FTSE100 dipping below 8100.
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#WaveAnalysis
#Ebay reversed from support level 51.00
Likely to rise to resistance level 54.60
Ebay recently reversed up from the key support level 51.00, which has been reversing the price from the middle of May.
The support level 51.00 was strengthened by the 20-day moving average and by the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse 1 from the start of May.
Given the clear daily uptrend, Ebay can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 54.60 (which stopped the previous minor impulse wave 1).
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#Ebay reversed from support level 51.00
Likely to rise to resistance level 54.60
Ebay recently reversed up from the key support level 51.00, which has been reversing the price from the middle of May.
The support level 51.00 was strengthened by the 20-day moving average and by the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse 1 from the start of May.
Given the clear daily uptrend, Ebay can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 54.60 (which stopped the previous minor impulse wave 1).
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A fresh batch of important monthly data on income, outlays, and personal consumption expenditure prices in the US has been published. Personal outlays grew by 0.2% in April after a 0.7% jump a month earlier. Incomes rose 0.3% following a 0.5% increase in the previous month.
The savings-to-income ratio remained at 3.6% for the second month in a row. But this indicator has maintained its downward trend since last August. Persistently lower levels of this indicator were seen in 2005-2007 when the housing market was pulling finances out of US households. Now, the pressure is being provided by a rebound in the tax burden after pandemic-related easing.
By April last year, personal taxes had risen 10%. As a result, a 4.5% rise in personal spending over the period led to only a 3.7% rise in disposable income. Spending, on the other hand, rose by 5.5%.
The savings-to-income ratio remained at 3.6% for the second month in a row. But this indicator has maintained its downward trend since last August. Persistently lower levels of this indicator were seen in 2005-2007 when the housing market was pulling finances out of US households. Now, the pressure is being provided by a rebound in the tax burden after pandemic-related easing.
By April last year, personal taxes had risen 10%. As a result, a 4.5% rise in personal spending over the period led to only a 3.7% rise in disposable income. Spending, on the other hand, rose by 5.5%.
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The Core PCE Price Index matched analysts' expectations, adding 0.2% m/m and 2.8% y/y. The annual rate has remained unchanged for three consecutive months, exceeding the Fed's target. However, the lack of acceleration is good news as there were risks to this given other inflation indicators.
We believe that the main threat to markets in the coming months is a slowdown in spending by US households. These households may shift to a more cautious spending pattern amid low savings rates, repeating the 2005-2007 history.
We believe that the main threat to markets in the coming months is a slowdown in spending by US households. These households may shift to a more cautious spending pattern amid low savings rates, repeating the 2005-2007 history.
#WaveAnalysis #JNJ
Johnson & Johnson reversed from support level 144.00
Likely to rise to resistance level 150.00
Johnson & Johnson recently reversed up with the daily Doji from the pivotal support level 144.00, which has been reversing the price from the middle of April.
The support level 144.00 was strengthened by the intersecting lower daily Bollinger Band.
Given the strength of the support level 144.00 and the oversold daily Stochastic, Johnson & Johnson can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 150.00 (target for the completion of the active minor wave b).
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Johnson & Johnson reversed from support level 144.00
Likely to rise to resistance level 150.00
Johnson & Johnson recently reversed up with the daily Doji from the pivotal support level 144.00, which has been reversing the price from the middle of April.
The support level 144.00 was strengthened by the intersecting lower daily Bollinger Band.
Given the strength of the support level 144.00 and the oversold daily Stochastic, Johnson & Johnson can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 150.00 (target for the completion of the active minor wave b).
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#WaveAnalysis #KO
Coca-Cola reversed from support level 61.00
Likely to rise to resistance level 63.00
Coca-Cola recently reversed up from the key support level 61.00, former resistance from February, March and April.
The support level 61.00 was strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band and by the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse (1) from April.
Given the clear daily uptrend, Coca-Cola can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 63.00 (which stopped the previous minor wave B).
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Coca-Cola reversed from support level 61.00
Likely to rise to resistance level 63.00
Coca-Cola recently reversed up from the key support level 61.00, former resistance from February, March and April.
The support level 61.00 was strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band and by the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse (1) from April.
Given the clear daily uptrend, Coca-Cola can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 63.00 (which stopped the previous minor wave B).
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