#WaveAnalysis
#Brent Crude oil reversed from strong support level 81.00
Likely to rise to resistance level 84.3
Brent Crude oil recently reversed up from the support area located between the strong support level 81.00, which has been reversing the price from February, and the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The support level 81.00 was strengthened by the nearby lower daily Bollinger Band and by the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse 1 from December.
Given the bullish divergence on the daily Stochastic, Brent Crude oil can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 84.30.
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#Brent Crude oil reversed from strong support level 81.00
Likely to rise to resistance level 84.3
Brent Crude oil recently reversed up from the support area located between the strong support level 81.00, which has been reversing the price from February, and the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The support level 81.00 was strengthened by the nearby lower daily Bollinger Band and by the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse 1 from December.
Given the bullish divergence on the daily Stochastic, Brent Crude oil can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 84.30.
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#Crypto market capitalisation rose 6.2% in seven days to $2.57 trillion, approaching the area of this year's highs above $2.7 trillion. Bitcoin's price, like the overall market cap chart, tests the upper boundary of the downward range that has been in force since March.
The break of this downtrend is the ability to consolidate above the last local high. For the crypto market, this is the $2.63 trillion area, and for #Bitcoin, it is $71.6K. An alternative negative scenario suggests a return to the lower end of the range, just above $2.12 trillion and around $60K for Bitcoin.
#Ethereum has not abandoned its attempt to overcome $4000, hovering above $3900 early in the day on Monday. The ability to overcome this psychologically important round level could quickly take the price to the highs of November 2021, in the $4600-4800 area.
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The break of this downtrend is the ability to consolidate above the last local high. For the crypto market, this is the $2.63 trillion area, and for #Bitcoin, it is $71.6K. An alternative negative scenario suggests a return to the lower end of the range, just above $2.12 trillion and around $60K for Bitcoin.
#Ethereum has not abandoned its attempt to overcome $4000, hovering above $3900 early in the day on Monday. The ability to overcome this psychologically important round level could quickly take the price to the highs of November 2021, in the $4600-4800 area.
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Precious metals are gaining on Monday in the second day of growth after last week's heavy sell-off. Platinum is recovering the most, jumping 2.9%. Palladium is gaining about 2%, also noting the recovery of buyers' appetite after the recent drawdown.
Exactly one week ago, Platinum reached a local peak at $1095, a two-year high. The subsequent 7% pullback was a classic 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the initial rally from $897 in late April. According to this pattern, overcoming the last peak would allow us to consider the $1210-1220 area as the next potential target.
We also note that the price did not fall below the $1000 level, which effectively acted as resistance in December and April but has now turned into support. The platinum price may be ready to move a notch higher in the coming weeks, settling in the $1200-1400 area.
Exactly one week ago, Platinum reached a local peak at $1095, a two-year high. The subsequent 7% pullback was a classic 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the initial rally from $897 in late April. According to this pattern, overcoming the last peak would allow us to consider the $1210-1220 area as the next potential target.
We also note that the price did not fall below the $1000 level, which effectively acted as resistance in December and April but has now turned into support. The platinum price may be ready to move a notch higher in the coming weeks, settling in the $1200-1400 area.
Last week's downward reversal pushed Palladium below the 200-day moving average, where it has been hovering since October 2022. Perhaps this downtrend is reaching its last days, as Palladium has formed very strong horizontal support in the $910-950 area since November. The combination of these forms the price movement within a triangle.
Classically, such a triangle should be resolved by a failure of the support and further price decline. But we believe that this is the case when we should expect an upward breakout.
Raw materials have a boundary below which exploration and mining are not interesting for companies. Palladium seems to have reached or strongly approached this boundary in the last six months. On the other hand, China's stimulation of its own economy is driving up commodity prices. Palladium should not be left behind, as it is actively used in the production of electric cars and has the biggest upside due to its distance from historic highs above $3400.
Classically, such a triangle should be resolved by a failure of the support and further price decline. But we believe that this is the case when we should expect an upward breakout.
Raw materials have a boundary below which exploration and mining are not interesting for companies. Palladium seems to have reached or strongly approached this boundary in the last six months. On the other hand, China's stimulation of its own economy is driving up commodity prices. Palladium should not be left behind, as it is actively used in the production of electric cars and has the biggest upside due to its distance from historic highs above $3400.
#WaveAnalysis
#Cisco broke support level 46.70
Likely to fall to support level 46.00
Cisco previously broke below the support level 46.70, which stopped the previous minor impulse wave I at the start of this month.
The breakout of the support level 46.70 should accelerate the active impulse waves 3 and (C).
Given the clear daily downtrend, Cisco can be expected to fall further to the next support level 46.00, target price for the completion of the active impulse wave 3.
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#Cisco broke support level 46.70
Likely to fall to support level 46.00
Cisco previously broke below the support level 46.70, which stopped the previous minor impulse wave I at the start of this month.
The breakout of the support level 46.70 should accelerate the active impulse waves 3 and (C).
Given the clear daily downtrend, Cisco can be expected to fall further to the next support level 46.00, target price for the completion of the active impulse wave 3.
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The improvement in Germany's business climate stalled in May, according to data released by Ifo. The index remained at the same level of 89.3 as a month earlier.
The indicator was last higher in May last year, but analysts, on average, were expecting a further increase to confirm the more positive PMI reading released last week.
Although markets reacted sluggishly to this publication, it probably accounts for the Euro's weaker performance against its major peers. EURUSD has pulled back below 1.0850, while EURGBP is testing the 0.8500 mark. The latter pair has not traded persistently lower since August 2022.
The steady decline over the past two weeks is mainly due to the belief that the Bank of England will extend the pause before the rate cut cycle starts and the ECB will ease policy at its next meeting on 6 June.
If the support at 0.8500 does not hold, the nearest next support will be the area of 0.8250-0.8300, but one should be prepared that the decline will not stop there.
The indicator was last higher in May last year, but analysts, on average, were expecting a further increase to confirm the more positive PMI reading released last week.
Although markets reacted sluggishly to this publication, it probably accounts for the Euro's weaker performance against its major peers. EURUSD has pulled back below 1.0850, while EURGBP is testing the 0.8500 mark. The latter pair has not traded persistently lower since August 2022.
The steady decline over the past two weeks is mainly due to the belief that the Bank of England will extend the pause before the rate cut cycle starts and the ECB will ease policy at its next meeting on 6 June.
If the support at 0.8500 does not hold, the nearest next support will be the area of 0.8250-0.8300, but one should be prepared that the decline will not stop there.
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#WaveAnalysis
#EURAUD reversed from resistance level 1.6365
Likely to fall to support level 1.6210
EURAUD currency pair previously reversed down from the key resistance level 1.6365, former support from April and January.
The resistance level 1.6365 was strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band and by the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous downward impulse 1 from April.
EURAUD can be expected to fall further to the next support level 1.6210, which stopped the previous impulse wave 1.
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#EURAUD reversed from resistance level 1.6365
Likely to fall to support level 1.6210
EURAUD currency pair previously reversed down from the key resistance level 1.6365, former support from April and January.
The resistance level 1.6365 was strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band and by the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous downward impulse 1 from April.
EURAUD can be expected to fall further to the next support level 1.6210, which stopped the previous impulse wave 1.
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The #crypto market cap is down 0.8% in 24 hours to $2.55 trillion. Bitcoin is losing 0.7%, Ethereum is down 1.1%, and the top altcoins are changing between -0.9% (Toncoin) and +1.1% (Solana).
Bitcoin's hashrate updated a record 676 Eh/s. Bitcoin miner capacity increased after the halving, although the opposite was expected.
#Bitcoin is losing ground on Tuesday. It is pulling back deep from the upper boundary of the trading range, trading at $68K. The lower boundary of the range (a potential target for bears) is below $60K. That said, the first cryptocurrency's ability to consolidate above $70K will break this bearish pattern.
The Disposer of MtGox has begun actively distributing funds. A total of 142,000 BTC ($9.7 billion), 143,000 BCH ($69.6 million) and 69 billion yen ($439 million) are scheduled to be distributed. This event temporarily pressurises the markets as the recipients of the assets can sell them immediately. However, this sell-off will finally close a longstanding phobia.
Bitcoin's hashrate updated a record 676 Eh/s. Bitcoin miner capacity increased after the halving, although the opposite was expected.
#Bitcoin is losing ground on Tuesday. It is pulling back deep from the upper boundary of the trading range, trading at $68K. The lower boundary of the range (a potential target for bears) is below $60K. That said, the first cryptocurrency's ability to consolidate above $70K will break this bearish pattern.
The Disposer of MtGox has begun actively distributing funds. A total of 142,000 BTC ($9.7 billion), 143,000 BCH ($69.6 million) and 69 billion yen ($439 million) are scheduled to be distributed. This event temporarily pressurises the markets as the recipients of the assets can sell them immediately. However, this sell-off will finally close a longstanding phobia.
The Nasdaq100 and S&P500 indices are showing measured gains, while volatility has declined to levels last seen in January 2020. Many traders are looking at this volatility compression as the calm before the storm, something we saw just over four years ago. The prudent strategy for this market is to "buy the dip." A sustained rise in the VIX above 20 would signal the start of a correction.
However, history suggests that a VIX decline alone is not enough to predict a market reversal. From May 2018 to January 2020, the index dipped below 12 several times. During that time, the S&P500 index added over 30%, and a "buy on downturns" strategy would have provided even more attractive returns.
Moreover, the VIX spent almost all of 2017 below 12, during which time the S&P500 added 20%, against a long-term average of 10-11%. In this episode, the market didn't encounter a powerful correction until early 2018, and the index returned to growth from higher levels than before the lull.
However, history suggests that a VIX decline alone is not enough to predict a market reversal. From May 2018 to January 2020, the index dipped below 12 several times. During that time, the S&P500 index added over 30%, and a "buy on downturns" strategy would have provided even more attractive returns.
Moreover, the VIX spent almost all of 2017 below 12, during which time the S&P500 added 20%, against a long-term average of 10-11%. In this episode, the market didn't encounter a powerful correction until early 2018, and the index returned to growth from higher levels than before the lull.
The same can be said for earlier periods: a VIX pullback into the 10-12 area is often followed by a transition to accelerated market growth, often with shallow corrections.
The distinction between short-term pullbacks and the start of a deeper correction can be made roughly through the 20 level of the VIX. Continued declines in equities and further increases in volatility mean the market switches into "fear" mode. In this case, but not before, it is worth changing tactics from "buying on downturns" to selling on growth.
In October 2023 and April 2024, the VIX temporarily rose above 20 but quickly pulled back, giving false early signals.
If the VIX continues to decline further, we will only get an "irrational optimism" signal when it drops below 9, but even then, it could be months before the S&P500 and Nasdaq100 reverse.
The distinction between short-term pullbacks and the start of a deeper correction can be made roughly through the 20 level of the VIX. Continued declines in equities and further increases in volatility mean the market switches into "fear" mode. In this case, but not before, it is worth changing tactics from "buying on downturns" to selling on growth.
In October 2023 and April 2024, the VIX temporarily rose above 20 but quickly pulled back, giving false early signals.
If the VIX continues to decline further, we will only get an "irrational optimism" signal when it drops below 9, but even then, it could be months before the S&P500 and Nasdaq100 reverse.
#WaveAnalysis #ADBE
Adobe reversed from key resistance level 490,00
– Likely to fall to support level 460.00
Adobe recently reversed down from the key resistance level 490,00, former strong support from march.
The resistance level 490,00 was strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band and by the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous downward impulse 1 from march.
Adobe can be expected to fall further to the next support level 460.00, which stopped the previous waves 3, 5 and ii.
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Adobe reversed from key resistance level 490,00
– Likely to fall to support level 460.00
Adobe recently reversed down from the key resistance level 490,00, former strong support from march.
The resistance level 490,00 was strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band and by the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous downward impulse 1 from march.
Adobe can be expected to fall further to the next support level 460.00, which stopped the previous waves 3, 5 and ii.
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#WaveAnalysis
#WTI crude oil reversed from key support level 76.70
Likely to rise to resistance level 81.10
WTI crude oil recently reversed up from the support zone located between the key support level 76.70, which has been reversing the price from February.
The support level 76.70 was strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band and by the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from February.
Given the bullish divergence on the daily Stochastic, WTI crude oil can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 81.10.
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#WTI crude oil reversed from key support level 76.70
Likely to rise to resistance level 81.10
WTI crude oil recently reversed up from the support zone located between the key support level 76.70, which has been reversing the price from February.
The support level 76.70 was strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band and by the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from February.
Given the bullish divergence on the daily Stochastic, WTI crude oil can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 81.10.
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The #crypto market added 1.3% in 24 hours to $2.58 trillion. This is roughly the area where trading has been centred for the last week, despite attempts by speculators to rock the market. Volatility in the market has decreased, with prices of the major coins varying between -1.3% (Toncoin) and 3.3% (Solana), while Shiba Inu shot straight up 15% to its highest since early April.
#Bitcoin continues to hover near the upper edge of the descending range, building up strength before the next move. All we have to do is reiterate that an exit above $70K will break this bearish pattern. Until then, the classic development is a pullback to the lower boundary, but we see this as an alternative option, suggesting a further breakout after consolidation.
According to CoinShares, net inflows into crypto funds totalled $1.05bn last week, up from $932m a week earlier. Bitcoin investments were up $1.01bn, Ethereum was up $36m, and Solana was up $8m.
#Bitcoin continues to hover near the upper edge of the descending range, building up strength before the next move. All we have to do is reiterate that an exit above $70K will break this bearish pattern. Until then, the classic development is a pullback to the lower boundary, but we see this as an alternative option, suggesting a further breakout after consolidation.
According to CoinShares, net inflows into crypto funds totalled $1.05bn last week, up from $932m a week earlier. Bitcoin investments were up $1.01bn, Ethereum was up $36m, and Solana was up $8m.
Consumer inflation in Australia rose in April, contrary to the expected decline. Year-on-year price gains totalled 3.6% vs. 3.5% previously, and average forecasts of a decline to 3.4%.
The inflation rate reached a plateau late last year, falling to 3.4%, but has been ticking upward for the past two months.
Prices have added ten months out of the past 12. Their rise over the past four consecutive months removes the question of an imminent rate cut.
The inflation rate reached a plateau late last year, falling to 3.4%, but has been ticking upward for the past two months.
Prices have added ten months out of the past 12. Their rise over the past four consecutive months removes the question of an imminent rate cut.
Judging by the reaction of the currency market, traders are not laying down for a policy tightening. AUDUSD is facing stronger selling on attempts to rise above 0.6650.
This is an interesting development, given the rise in industrial metals prices and some recovery in trade with China in recent months.
The Australian currency's ability to break the multi-month resistance at 0.6650 would open the way to 0.6800, the pivot area of the past 12 months. The current currency market slack, alongside potentially bullish data, is also helping to create domestic pressure.
On the bears' side, however, is the weakness in retail sales, which saw a 0.1% m/m and 1.3% y/y rise in April.
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This is an interesting development, given the rise in industrial metals prices and some recovery in trade with China in recent months.
The Australian currency's ability to break the multi-month resistance at 0.6650 would open the way to 0.6800, the pivot area of the past 12 months. The current currency market slack, alongside potentially bullish data, is also helping to create domestic pressure.
On the bears' side, however, is the weakness in retail sales, which saw a 0.1% m/m and 1.3% y/y rise in April.
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German inflation confirmed an acceleration. Harmonised CPI rose to 2.8% vs 2.4% a month earlier and 2.3% in March. This is positive news for the Euro, which is lagging behind the Pound and relatively weak against the Dollar, based on expectations of a looser ECB monetary policy against rivals.
A fresh batch of data from Germany casts little doubt on the ECB members' widely announced policy easing on 6 June. Nevertheless, the acceleration in price growth, if sustained going forward, reduces the chances of the back-to-back cuts.
A sustained acceleration in inflation could revive interest in the euro, which earlier on Wednesday fell to its lowest in nearly two years. EURUSD has been hovering around 1.0850 for the past two weeks and could accelerate gains after a pause.
Potential weakness for the euro could come from the economic front, where an economic slowdown and sluggish lending, adding 0.2% to last year, the lowest since 2015, are increasingly evident.
A fresh batch of data from Germany casts little doubt on the ECB members' widely announced policy easing on 6 June. Nevertheless, the acceleration in price growth, if sustained going forward, reduces the chances of the back-to-back cuts.
A sustained acceleration in inflation could revive interest in the euro, which earlier on Wednesday fell to its lowest in nearly two years. EURUSD has been hovering around 1.0850 for the past two weeks and could accelerate gains after a pause.
Potential weakness for the euro could come from the economic front, where an economic slowdown and sluggish lending, adding 0.2% to last year, the lowest since 2015, are increasingly evident.
#WaveAnalysis #MCD
McDonald’s under strong bearish pressure
Likely to fall to support level 250.00
McDonald’s Corp under the strong bearish pressure after the price broke the key support level 261.40, which stopped the previous minor impulse wave i at the end of April.
The breakout of the support level 261.40 accelerated the active impulse wave c of the minor ABC correction 2 from January.
McDonald’s can be expected to fall further to the next support level 250.00, target price for the competition of the active impulse wave c.
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McDonald’s under strong bearish pressure
Likely to fall to support level 250.00
McDonald’s Corp under the strong bearish pressure after the price broke the key support level 261.40, which stopped the previous minor impulse wave i at the end of April.
The breakout of the support level 261.40 accelerated the active impulse wave c of the minor ABC correction 2 from January.
McDonald’s can be expected to fall further to the next support level 250.00, target price for the competition of the active impulse wave c.
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#WaveAnalysis
#USDJPY reversed from key support level 156.50
Likely to rise to resistance level 160.00
USDJPY currency pair recently reversed up from the key support level 156.50, former resistance which stopped the previous minor impulse wave i at the start of May.
The upward reversal from the support level 156.50 continued the active minor impulse wave iii.
Given the clear daily uptrend and the strong yen sales, USDJPY currency pair can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 160.00 (top of wave 1 and the target for the completion of the active impulse wave iii).
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#USDJPY reversed from key support level 156.50
Likely to rise to resistance level 160.00
USDJPY currency pair recently reversed up from the key support level 156.50, former resistance which stopped the previous minor impulse wave i at the start of May.
The upward reversal from the support level 156.50 continued the active minor impulse wave iii.
Given the clear daily uptrend and the strong yen sales, USDJPY currency pair can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 160.00 (top of wave 1 and the target for the completion of the active impulse wave iii).
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#WaveAnalysis
#GBPUSD reversed from resistance level 1.2800
Likely to fall to support level 1.2675
GBPUSD currency pair recently reversed down from the key resistance level 1.2800, which has been repeatedly reversing the price from December.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 1.2800 is likely to form the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Evening Star Doji.
Given the strength of the resistance level 1.2800, GBPUSD currency pair can be expected to fall further to the next support level 1.2675 (low of the previous correction ii).
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#GBPUSD reversed from resistance level 1.2800
Likely to fall to support level 1.2675
GBPUSD currency pair recently reversed down from the key resistance level 1.2800, which has been repeatedly reversing the price from December.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 1.2800 is likely to form the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Evening Star Doji.
Given the strength of the resistance level 1.2800, GBPUSD currency pair can be expected to fall further to the next support level 1.2675 (low of the previous correction ii).
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