Silver climbed above $29.8, rewriting the highs from January 2021, but once again faced selling intensification from that level for the first time in four years and has pulled back to $29.40 at the time of writing.
Silver does not look overheated, as it is only now entering overbought territory on the RSI on the daily timeframes. Last month, silver was actively added for another three weeks after the RSI entered levels above 70. A two-week pullback in the second half of April later removed that overbought area. Technically, this clears the way up.
The upside potential after the pullback is also indicated by the April correction fitting into a classic Fibonacci pattern with a pullback to 61.8% of the initial rally from late February, followed by a quick recovery. A strong rise above the recent peaks will be an important confirmation of the growth extension and will make the $33 level a likely target for a new impulse.
Silver does not look overheated, as it is only now entering overbought territory on the RSI on the daily timeframes. Last month, silver was actively added for another three weeks after the RSI entered levels above 70. A two-week pullback in the second half of April later removed that overbought area. Technically, this clears the way up.
The upside potential after the pullback is also indicated by the April correction fitting into a classic Fibonacci pattern with a pullback to 61.8% of the initial rally from late February, followed by a quick recovery. A strong rise above the recent peaks will be an important confirmation of the growth extension and will make the $33 level a likely target for a new impulse.
We also note that the fresh assault on the 30 level came just a month after the previous one, and this rally started from a higher level than what we saw in March or 3-4 years ago.
Long-term trends are also on the bulls' side. In the last two years, they have been able to quickly turn the price to the upside after dips under the 200-week moving average. This year, the price is successfully pulling away from that line, but the most furious part of the rally may be ahead.
Silver could be ready to repeat the growth spurt it showed in 2010-2011. Back then, the multi-year resistance was at the $20 level, and the acceleration came after the 50-week moving average exceeded the 200-week moving average, and the price took that important round level. We have already gotten the first signal, so we must wait for the overcoming of $30 at the end of the week to confirm the bullish sentiment.
A move above $30 will make us seriously consider levels above $50/oz as a long-term target, repeating the 2011 and 1980 peaks.
Long-term trends are also on the bulls' side. In the last two years, they have been able to quickly turn the price to the upside after dips under the 200-week moving average. This year, the price is successfully pulling away from that line, but the most furious part of the rally may be ahead.
Silver could be ready to repeat the growth spurt it showed in 2010-2011. Back then, the multi-year resistance was at the $20 level, and the acceleration came after the 50-week moving average exceeded the 200-week moving average, and the price took that important round level. We have already gotten the first signal, so we must wait for the overcoming of $30 at the end of the week to confirm the bullish sentiment.
A move above $30 will make us seriously consider levels above $50/oz as a long-term target, repeating the 2011 and 1980 peaks.
#WaveAnalysis
#USDCHF reversed from round support level 0.9000
Likely to rise to resistance level 0.9100
USDCHF currency pair recently reversed up from the round support level 0.9000 (which stopped the previous corrections iv, 4 ii, 1).
The support level 0.90000 was strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band and by the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous upward impulse from March.
Given the strong daily uptrend, USDCHF currency pair can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 0.9100, top of the previous waves a, 2.
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#USDCHF reversed from round support level 0.9000
Likely to rise to resistance level 0.9100
USDCHF currency pair recently reversed up from the round support level 0.9000 (which stopped the previous corrections iv, 4 ii, 1).
The support level 0.90000 was strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band and by the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous upward impulse from March.
Given the strong daily uptrend, USDCHF currency pair can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 0.9100, top of the previous waves a, 2.
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The #crypto market cooled off on Thursday afternoon, but on Friday morning, buyers stepped up again, bringing cap back to levels from the day before at $2.39 trillion. Strong growth was followed by rapid profit-taking, which is a necessary part of healthy growth, suggesting a high chance of continued gains in the coming days.
#Bitcoin was pulling back towards $65K on Thursday but is already trying to regain its footing above $66K on Friday morning. If cryptocurrencies get support from the global risk appetite on Friday, Bitcoin could exceed $70K over the weekend. A test of the $71K-$74K highs area, in our view, could happen as early as early next week, triggering a new episode of FOMO.
#Solana has been revived, adding over 10% in less than three days. On Thursday, the coin managed to break out of the $125-155 consolidation range. The day before, it consolidated above the 50-day moving average. Potentially, this opens the way to $200, and this is a case where altcoins are moving better than Bitcoin.
#Bitcoin was pulling back towards $65K on Thursday but is already trying to regain its footing above $66K on Friday morning. If cryptocurrencies get support from the global risk appetite on Friday, Bitcoin could exceed $70K over the weekend. A test of the $71K-$74K highs area, in our view, could happen as early as early next week, triggering a new episode of FOMO.
#Solana has been revived, adding over 10% in less than three days. On Thursday, the coin managed to break out of the $125-155 consolidation range. The day before, it consolidated above the 50-day moving average. Potentially, this opens the way to $200, and this is a case where altcoins are moving better than Bitcoin.
#WaveAnalysis #AMZN
Amazon reversed from resistance level 190.00
Likely to fall to support level 180.00
Amazon recently reversed down from the resistance level 190.00 (previous monthly high from April), strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 190.00 started the active ABC correction ii.
Amazon can be expected to fall further to the next support level 180.00, target for the completion of the active wave ii.
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Amazon reversed from resistance level 190.00
Likely to fall to support level 180.00
Amazon recently reversed down from the resistance level 190.00 (previous monthly high from April), strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 190.00 started the active ABC correction ii.
Amazon can be expected to fall further to the next support level 180.00, target for the completion of the active wave ii.
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The US dollar is not giving up without a fight, gaining for the second day in a row against a basket of major currencies. Buyers seized the initiative after the Dollar touched the lower bound of its uptrend, coinciding with the 200-day MA.
From the current level of 104.6, the DXY needs to consolidate below 103.6 to confirm the fall down from its uptrend. At that level, the dollar will drop below the previous local bottom and consolidate below the 200-day MA.
Earlier in the week, the USD's sharp decline followed weak CPI, causing markets to return to pricing 100% probability of two rate cuts for this year. However, the dollar has already been adding to its gains on Thursday and since the start of the day on Friday. Traders are probably taking note that leading indicators of inflation exceeded expectations.
The producer price index increased 0.5% in April—impressively higher than the expected 0.3%. The annual rate of increase was 2.2%, the highest in 12 months, reversing a rise since last November.
From the current level of 104.6, the DXY needs to consolidate below 103.6 to confirm the fall down from its uptrend. At that level, the dollar will drop below the previous local bottom and consolidate below the 200-day MA.
Earlier in the week, the USD's sharp decline followed weak CPI, causing markets to return to pricing 100% probability of two rate cuts for this year. However, the dollar has already been adding to its gains on Thursday and since the start of the day on Friday. Traders are probably taking note that leading indicators of inflation exceeded expectations.
The producer price index increased 0.5% in April—impressively higher than the expected 0.3%. The annual rate of increase was 2.2%, the highest in 12 months, reversing a rise since last November.
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The import price index, released on Thursday, is also not expected to ease inflationary pressures. It added 0.9% m/m last month and 2.8% over the 4 months, although the year-over-year rate is still quite low at 1.1%.
Both figures are shaping upward inflation risks for the coming months. The latest round of tariff hikes on several imported goods from China also raises inflation risks.
On balance, the dollar has not gone into a tailspin but got its buy-the-dip pattern on pro-inflation risks, which prevent markets from reverting to expectations of aggressive rate cuts.
On the other hand, the dollar's position looks more vulnerable against the euro and the pound. EURUSD and GBPUSD have already broken above their 50- and 200-day MAs and briefly exceeded previous highs, breaking the downward trend. This comparative divergence in dynamics between the DXY and the dollar's relationship to the euro and pound makes it worth watching developments with interest.
Both figures are shaping upward inflation risks for the coming months. The latest round of tariff hikes on several imported goods from China also raises inflation risks.
On balance, the dollar has not gone into a tailspin but got its buy-the-dip pattern on pro-inflation risks, which prevent markets from reverting to expectations of aggressive rate cuts.
On the other hand, the dollar's position looks more vulnerable against the euro and the pound. EURUSD and GBPUSD have already broken above their 50- and 200-day MAs and briefly exceeded previous highs, breaking the downward trend. This comparative divergence in dynamics between the DXY and the dollar's relationship to the euro and pound makes it worth watching developments with interest.
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#WaveAnalysis
#Brent crude oil reversed from key support level 81.00
Likely to test resistance level 84.00
Brent crude oil recently reversed up from the key support level 81.00 (which has been reversing the price from the start of February) intersecting with the lower daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from December.
The upward reversal from the support level 81.00 created the daily Hammer, which stopped the earlier correction ii.
Brent crude oil can then be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 84.00, which reversed the price at the start of May.
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#Brent crude oil reversed from key support level 81.00
Likely to test resistance level 84.00
Brent crude oil recently reversed up from the key support level 81.00 (which has been reversing the price from the start of February) intersecting with the lower daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from December.
The upward reversal from the support level 81.00 created the daily Hammer, which stopped the earlier correction ii.
Brent crude oil can then be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 84.00, which reversed the price at the start of May.
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#Crypto market capitalisation rose 5.2% over the past seven days to $2.41 trillion. Over the weekend, it reached $2.44 trillion, its highest level in nearly four weeks.
#Bitcoin is treading near local highs, remaining just below $67K. That's a gain of 8.4% in seven days and a retest of the previous peak area in late April. Despite the burgeoning risk appetite in global markets, demand for Bitcoin, Ethereum and many altcoins is rather subdued. However, BTCUSD remains firmly above the 50-day moving average, indicating an upward trend.
Investors are more optimistic about #Solana, whose price rose to its highest since early April at $177 (+1.5% in 24h). It may well reach the March highs before Bitcoin, acting as a more sensitive indicator of risk appetite in cryptocurrencies.
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#Bitcoin is treading near local highs, remaining just below $67K. That's a gain of 8.4% in seven days and a retest of the previous peak area in late April. Despite the burgeoning risk appetite in global markets, demand for Bitcoin, Ethereum and many altcoins is rather subdued. However, BTCUSD remains firmly above the 50-day moving average, indicating an upward trend.
Investors are more optimistic about #Solana, whose price rose to its highest since early April at $177 (+1.5% in 24h). It may well reach the March highs before Bitcoin, acting as a more sensitive indicator of risk appetite in cryptocurrencies.
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Oil is losing about 0.75% of its peak on Monday, having hit a strengthening sell-off as it attempts to climb above $80 for #WTI and $84 for #Brent.
Oil is declining despite the death of Iran's president, which should reinforce the risk premium, and despite a strong rally in metals and other commodities in response to China's stimulus measures.
News on the US oil industry points to relative stagnation. According to Friday's report from Baker Hughes, the total number of Oil rigs in the US was 497 compared to 496 and 499 in the last two weeks. We have been seeing fluctuations around the 500 level since last October.
The official weekly report from the US Energy Information Administration last week also pointed to stagnant production at 13.1 million bpd over the last ten weeks. This volume also is the average over the period since mid-September.
The conclusion is that current prices are neutral for the industry, not creating incentives to increase production but not causing it to decline either.
Oil is declining despite the death of Iran's president, which should reinforce the risk premium, and despite a strong rally in metals and other commodities in response to China's stimulus measures.
News on the US oil industry points to relative stagnation. According to Friday's report from Baker Hughes, the total number of Oil rigs in the US was 497 compared to 496 and 499 in the last two weeks. We have been seeing fluctuations around the 500 level since last October.
The official weekly report from the US Energy Information Administration last week also pointed to stagnant production at 13.1 million bpd over the last ten weeks. This volume also is the average over the period since mid-September.
The conclusion is that current prices are neutral for the industry, not creating incentives to increase production but not causing it to decline either.
The price chart shows a balance of power for more than two weeks now. Since December, the price has been moving in an ascending channel. Oil briefly fell out of this range last week but found buyers rising from $76.4 to $79.8 in less than three days.
The bulls are also not yet able to unequivocally retake the lead, as an attempt to exceed the 200-day moving average on Monday was met with increased selling. This may be a signal that the bears are still in control of the situation and are now gathering strength for a new downward impulse. We will get confirmation of this hypothesis only in case of consolidation under $76.5. It is also relatively easy for oil to roll back to $75, where the 200-week moving average lies. However, a failure below $70-$71 could start a real corkscrew in oil with a potential first target at $50 and a final target at $30.
The ability to get back above $80 would be a sign of a bullish recovery and set the mood for a quick exit to $85 within weeks and above $92 by mid-summer.
The bulls are also not yet able to unequivocally retake the lead, as an attempt to exceed the 200-day moving average on Monday was met with increased selling. This may be a signal that the bears are still in control of the situation and are now gathering strength for a new downward impulse. We will get confirmation of this hypothesis only in case of consolidation under $76.5. It is also relatively easy for oil to roll back to $75, where the 200-week moving average lies. However, a failure below $70-$71 could start a real corkscrew in oil with a potential first target at $50 and a final target at $30.
The ability to get back above $80 would be a sign of a bullish recovery and set the mood for a quick exit to $85 within weeks and above $92 by mid-summer.
The crypto market cap has stabilised at $2.6 trillion. Among the top coins over 24 hours, Toncoin is down 5%, leading the decline, while Dogecoin is up 3.4%.
#Bitcoin is losing 1.9% in 24 hours to just below $70K, having come under pressure after it rallied above $71.3K, as short-term speculators rush to take profits around the all-time highs reached in March. The local highs are just below the peaks in April and March, and now all eyes are on the market's next move. A break of resistance at $72K has the potential to trigger a real FOMO. A pullback below would force a $60K correction scenario to be considered as the main one.
#Ethereum has rallied around 22% since Monday evening, surpassing $3800. Technically, we got a signal of a powerful spurt above the 50-day moving average, meaning a return to the bull trend. Short-term, Ethereum has a clear path to $4000, the March peak, after which the bulls can target $4600. Now is the time when Bitcoin's next move depends on Ethereum.
#Bitcoin is losing 1.9% in 24 hours to just below $70K, having come under pressure after it rallied above $71.3K, as short-term speculators rush to take profits around the all-time highs reached in March. The local highs are just below the peaks in April and March, and now all eyes are on the market's next move. A break of resistance at $72K has the potential to trigger a real FOMO. A pullback below would force a $60K correction scenario to be considered as the main one.
#Ethereum has rallied around 22% since Monday evening, surpassing $3800. Technically, we got a signal of a powerful spurt above the 50-day moving average, meaning a return to the bull trend. Short-term, Ethereum has a clear path to $4000, the March peak, after which the bulls can target $4600. Now is the time when Bitcoin's next move depends on Ethereum.
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UK Inflation distanced the expected rate cut
Inflation in the UK exceeded forecasts, making traders and investors cautious about the prospects for policy easing in the coming months.
Consumer prices rose by 0.3% m/m vs. 0.2% expected. Annual inflation slowed to 2.3% last month from 3.2% in March. This is the lowest level in two years, comfortably close to the Bank of England's target but above the forecast of 2.3%.
Core inflation has been gently slowing over the past 12 months but has only fallen to 3.9% y/y from a peak of 7.1% y/y. Meaningful progress, but quite far from the desired level. In our view, the high growth rate of the core price index is the most important factor pushing forward the date of policy easing.
Inflation in the UK exceeded forecasts, making traders and investors cautious about the prospects for policy easing in the coming months.
Consumer prices rose by 0.3% m/m vs. 0.2% expected. Annual inflation slowed to 2.3% last month from 3.2% in March. This is the lowest level in two years, comfortably close to the Bank of England's target but above the forecast of 2.3%.
Core inflation has been gently slowing over the past 12 months but has only fallen to 3.9% y/y from a peak of 7.1% y/y. Meaningful progress, but quite far from the desired level. In our view, the high growth rate of the core price index is the most important factor pushing forward the date of policy easing.
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At the same time, producer prices have been at comfortably low levels for an extended period. The Input Producer Price Index loses 1.5% y/y, having remained in negative territory for the past 11 months. The Output Producer Price Index is rising at a rate of 1.1% y/y, accelerating over the past three months from a low of -0.2% in February.
Nevertheless, this is a relatively low rate that does not prevent policy easing.
Thus, the most intense inflationary pressure is centred on the retailers' stage. This is probably the result of rising labour costs or an attempt to compensate for narrow margins in previous years.
Nevertheless, this is a relatively low rate that does not prevent policy easing.
Thus, the most intense inflationary pressure is centred on the retailers' stage. This is probably the result of rising labour costs or an attempt to compensate for narrow margins in previous years.
The persistence of inflation translating into tighter monetary policy is causing pressure on the UK equity market. The FTSE100 is losing around 0.75%, smoothly forming a peak during the previous week. Inflation data looks like a worthwhile reason to start a correction that could take the index back to 8200 or even 8000 from the current 8360 before we see buying activity.
At the same time, this is good news for the pound, which hit a 2-month high against the dollar, rising above 1.2750 shortly after publication. This is an important area of resistance for the past 11 months.
A further continuation of inflation higher than G10 currencies has the potential to lift GBPUSD to the next leg up to the 1.30-1.40 area. Should the economy stumble, and with it inflation, this would remove the divergence in monetary policy and put pressure back on the pound, leaving it in the 1.20-1.27 range.
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At the same time, this is good news for the pound, which hit a 2-month high against the dollar, rising above 1.2750 shortly after publication. This is an important area of resistance for the past 11 months.
A further continuation of inflation higher than G10 currencies has the potential to lift GBPUSD to the next leg up to the 1.30-1.40 area. Should the economy stumble, and with it inflation, this would remove the divergence in monetary policy and put pressure back on the pound, leaving it in the 1.20-1.27 range.
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#WaveAnalysis
#AUDJPY reversed from resistance level 104.50
Likely to fall to support level 103.00
AUDJPY currency pair recently reversed down from the key resistance level 104.50, which stopped the previous sharp upward impulse wave 3.
The price formed two consecutive Japanese candlesticks reversal patterns Doji – signalling the strength of this resistance level.
Given the strength of the resistance level 104.50 and the overbought daily Stochastic, AUDJPY currency pair can be expected to fall further to the next support level 103.00.
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#AUDJPY reversed from resistance level 104.50
Likely to fall to support level 103.00
AUDJPY currency pair recently reversed down from the key resistance level 104.50, which stopped the previous sharp upward impulse wave 3.
The price formed two consecutive Japanese candlesticks reversal patterns Doji – signalling the strength of this resistance level.
Given the strength of the resistance level 104.50 and the overbought daily Stochastic, AUDJPY currency pair can be expected to fall further to the next support level 103.00.
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#WaveAnalysis
#USDCAD reversed from pivotal support level 1.3585
Likely to rise to resistance level 1.3750
USDCAD currency pair recently reversed up from the pivotal support level 1.3585 (former strong resistance from December, February and March) intersecting with the lower daily Bollinger Band and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from December.
The upward reversal from the support level 1.3585 stopped the previous minor ABC correction 2.
Given the strength of the support level 1.3585, USDCAD currency pair can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 1.3750.
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#USDCAD reversed from pivotal support level 1.3585
Likely to rise to resistance level 1.3750
USDCAD currency pair recently reversed up from the pivotal support level 1.3585 (former strong resistance from December, February and March) intersecting with the lower daily Bollinger Band and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from December.
The upward reversal from the support level 1.3585 stopped the previous minor ABC correction 2.
Given the strength of the support level 1.3585, USDCAD currency pair can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 1.3750.
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The #crypto market is quiet, hovering around a total capitalisation of $2.6 trillion for the third day. Bitcoin has so far failed to gain a foothold above $70K, and this is curbing the enthusiasm. It is losing 0.3% in 24 hours against Ethereum's 0.6% rise.
The top altcoins have comparatively subdued and varied dynamics, with fluctuations between -2% for #Dogecoin, -1.5% for #Solana and a 1.5% rise for #Toncoin.
Technically, #Bitcoin remains near the upper boundary of the descending range. The round level of $70K is also quite important for the young crypto market. Going higher would break two barriers at once. Short-term growth momentum could quickly take the price to the highs at $73.5K.
A more distant and important target could be in the $95K-$100K area, where the lower boundary is the 161.8% level of the January-March rise and the upper boundary is an important round level.
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The top altcoins have comparatively subdued and varied dynamics, with fluctuations between -2% for #Dogecoin, -1.5% for #Solana and a 1.5% rise for #Toncoin.
Technically, #Bitcoin remains near the upper boundary of the descending range. The round level of $70K is also quite important for the young crypto market. Going higher would break two barriers at once. Short-term growth momentum could quickly take the price to the highs at $73.5K.
A more distant and important target could be in the $95K-$100K area, where the lower boundary is the 161.8% level of the January-March rise and the upper boundary is an important round level.
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