#Crypto market cap on Monday stands at $2.2 trillion, down 5.2% over 7 days, although it showed some growth over the weekend. The capitalisation peaked on March 14th, but the active decline began about a month ago, with a sequence of lower lows and lower highs.
During the previous week, the crypto market held near the upper boundary of the descending channel.
Cryptocurrencies are being helped by increased risk traction in stock markets. Still, there is also internal pressure, likely related to asset sell-offs by miners and fears of tighter regulation of cryptocurrencies.
#Bitcoin is largely negatively impacting the overall performance of the crypto market right now. However, it has been finding plenty of buyer interest over the past two months, on a decline towards $60K. A failure below it could trigger something of a panic sell-off. The positive scenario will become the main one with a rise above $65K, fixing the price at the 50-day moving average and the reversal area in early May.
During the previous week, the crypto market held near the upper boundary of the descending channel.
Cryptocurrencies are being helped by increased risk traction in stock markets. Still, there is also internal pressure, likely related to asset sell-offs by miners and fears of tighter regulation of cryptocurrencies.
#Bitcoin is largely negatively impacting the overall performance of the crypto market right now. However, it has been finding plenty of buyer interest over the past two months, on a decline towards $60K. A failure below it could trigger something of a panic sell-off. The positive scenario will become the main one with a rise above $65K, fixing the price at the 50-day moving average and the reversal area in early May.
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#WaveAnalysis
#Platinum reversed from resistance level 1010
Likely to fall to support level 990
Platinum just reversed down from the major resistance level 1010, which has been reversing the price from the end of December.
The resistance level 1010 stands well above the upper daily Bollinger Band – increasing the possibility of the sharp correction in the near-term future.
Give the strength of the resistance level 1010, overbought daily Stochastic, Platinum can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 990.
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#Platinum reversed from resistance level 1010
Likely to fall to support level 990
Platinum just reversed down from the major resistance level 1010, which has been reversing the price from the end of December.
The resistance level 1010 stands well above the upper daily Bollinger Band – increasing the possibility of the sharp correction in the near-term future.
Give the strength of the resistance level 1010, overbought daily Stochastic, Platinum can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 990.
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#Crypto market cap rose 0.8% over the past 24 hours to 2.2 trillion, but growth exceeded 2% for most of the period. However, it dipped at the start of active European trading.
Bitcoin has added 0.9% over the past 24h, while Ethereum has increased by 0.15%. The top coins' performance varied from falling by 1% (BNB) and 0.8% (TON) to growing by 7.3% (DOGE) and 4.2% (SOL).
#Bitcoin reversed on Monday on its approach to the $63.0K level, just below the pivot area on Friday, continuing a series of lower local highs. This time, it was at a significant distance from the 50-day moving average.
However, the pattern is even more negative in #Ethereum, where the price has pulled back to the lower end of the range of the last three months, near $2900, drawing a bearish triangle. Technically, breaking this support opens the way to $1600-1500. This sounds like an overly negative scenario, and in our opinion, it is worth being prepared that Ethereum could attract enough buyers already on a dip into the $2500-2700 area.
Bitcoin has added 0.9% over the past 24h, while Ethereum has increased by 0.15%. The top coins' performance varied from falling by 1% (BNB) and 0.8% (TON) to growing by 7.3% (DOGE) and 4.2% (SOL).
#Bitcoin reversed on Monday on its approach to the $63.0K level, just below the pivot area on Friday, continuing a series of lower local highs. This time, it was at a significant distance from the 50-day moving average.
However, the pattern is even more negative in #Ethereum, where the price has pulled back to the lower end of the range of the last three months, near $2900, drawing a bearish triangle. Technically, breaking this support opens the way to $1600-1500. This sounds like an overly negative scenario, and in our opinion, it is worth being prepared that Ethereum could attract enough buyers already on a dip into the $2500-2700 area.
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#WaveAnalysis #KO
Coca-Cola rising inside sharp impulse wave (3)
Likely to reach resistance level 64.00
Coca-Cola rising inside the sharp upward impulse wave (3), which started earlier from the key support level 61.00 (former strong resistance from February ad March).
The price has been reversing up from the lower trendline of the sharp upward channel from April – highlighting the strength of the active impulse wave (3).
Give the clear multi-moth uptrend, Coca-Cola can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 64.00.
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Coca-Cola rising inside sharp impulse wave (3)
Likely to reach resistance level 64.00
Coca-Cola rising inside the sharp upward impulse wave (3), which started earlier from the key support level 61.00 (former strong resistance from February ad March).
The price has been reversing up from the lower trendline of the sharp upward channel from April – highlighting the strength of the active impulse wave (3).
Give the clear multi-moth uptrend, Coca-Cola can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 64.00.
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Oil is retreating but unlikely to repeat the collapses of 2020, 2014 or 2008
Crude oil has been under pressure over the past four weeks but has been gaining support on the decline to $77 per barrel #WTI and $82 per barrel #Brent since the beginning of the month. The price has been consolidating in roughly the same area for over a month since the second half of February. Then, there was a prolonged pause in growth to overcome the 200-day average. Now, it could be a pause before a further plunge.
The bears showed their strength a fortnight ago, causing a 4.5% drop in two days and pushing the price immediately below the 50- and 200-day moving averages, which are filters of the medium- and long-term trend, respectively. From this perspective, the subsequent consolidation last week and at the start of this week may be an attempt to remove excessive short-term oversold and build strength and liquidity for a new attack.
Crude oil has been under pressure over the past four weeks but has been gaining support on the decline to $77 per barrel #WTI and $82 per barrel #Brent since the beginning of the month. The price has been consolidating in roughly the same area for over a month since the second half of February. Then, there was a prolonged pause in growth to overcome the 200-day average. Now, it could be a pause before a further plunge.
The bears showed their strength a fortnight ago, causing a 4.5% drop in two days and pushing the price immediately below the 50- and 200-day moving averages, which are filters of the medium- and long-term trend, respectively. From this perspective, the subsequent consolidation last week and at the start of this week may be an attempt to remove excessive short-term oversold and build strength and liquidity for a new attack.
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Also, the latest consolidation area roughly coincides with the support of the ascending corridor that has been in force for the past five months. A new downside momentum would be a formal prologue to break the uptrend with a potential downside target at $75 for WTI and around $79 for Brent.
Near these levels lies the 200-week moving average, a dip below which has intensified discussions on production cuts, resulting in an upward reversal of prices. Impulsive dips below did not exceed 3% for over a year.
The US government's stance has also changed over the past two years, and we are seeing buying to replenish reserves in downturns, as was the case late last year and early this year.
Near these levels lies the 200-week moving average, a dip below which has intensified discussions on production cuts, resulting in an upward reversal of prices. Impulsive dips below did not exceed 3% for over a year.
The US government's stance has also changed over the past two years, and we are seeing buying to replenish reserves in downturns, as was the case late last year and early this year.
Of course, OPEC support and purchases into US reserves do not provide infinite support, and the market easily passed it in 2020, 2014 and 2008, and briefly in 2018 if we take the most recent history. Thus, oil's failure under $72.5 for WTI and $76.3 for Brent could signal that the sellers have the upper hand this time.
If this is a repeat of the almost free-fall that we saw in 2020, 2014 or 2008, the price could well plunge back into the $30 area. Near that price, most production becomes unprofitable. However, this has only happened because of a marked dysfunction in the financial markets. So far, there are no signs of this, although the situation may change quickly.
Still, the main scenario, we believe, is that oil returns to growth due to the ease with which OPEC+ can remove 0.5% of global production from the market - enough to reverse the trend. Also, we should not overlook the rise in commodity prices in recent weeks as China has increased steps to stimulate growth.
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If this is a repeat of the almost free-fall that we saw in 2020, 2014 or 2008, the price could well plunge back into the $30 area. Near that price, most production becomes unprofitable. However, this has only happened because of a marked dysfunction in the financial markets. So far, there are no signs of this, although the situation may change quickly.
Still, the main scenario, we believe, is that oil returns to growth due to the ease with which OPEC+ can remove 0.5% of global production from the market - enough to reverse the trend. Also, we should not overlook the rise in commodity prices in recent weeks as China has increased steps to stimulate growth.
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#WaveAnalysis
#EURCHF rising inside impulse wave 3
Likely to reach resistance level 0.9835
EURCHF currency pair continues to rise inside the impulse wave 3, which started earlier from the support trendline of the daily Triangle from April.
The active impulse wave 3 belongs to the higher order impulse wave (3) from the middle of April.
Given the strong daily uptrend, EURCHF currency pair can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 0.9835, which stopped the previous waves (1), B and 1.
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#EURCHF rising inside impulse wave 3
Likely to reach resistance level 0.9835
EURCHF currency pair continues to rise inside the impulse wave 3, which started earlier from the support trendline of the daily Triangle from April.
The active impulse wave 3 belongs to the higher order impulse wave (3) from the middle of April.
Given the strong daily uptrend, EURCHF currency pair can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 0.9835, which stopped the previous waves (1), B and 1.
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Neither the meme mania in equities, the overall positivity in stock indices, nor the weakening dollar seems to be helping cryptocurrencies right now. #Crypto market cap is down 0.1% and has been moving around the current $2.29 trillion level for the past seven days.
#Bitcoin is trading near $61.9K, forming a sequence of higher intraday lows on the daily timeframes. Meanwhile, a month-old downside resistance is still in place. Bitcoin is approaching the top of this triangle, which could lead to a sharp increase in volatility. The trigger in the near term promises to be the US inflation report, which has had a strong impact on markets, including cryptocurrencies, in recent months.
#Bitcoin is trading near $61.9K, forming a sequence of higher intraday lows on the daily timeframes. Meanwhile, a month-old downside resistance is still in place. Bitcoin is approaching the top of this triangle, which could lead to a sharp increase in volatility. The trigger in the near term promises to be the US inflation report, which has had a strong impact on markets, including cryptocurrencies, in recent months.
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The medium-term picture also indicates that some old altcoins are having a tough time. In addition to #Ethereum, #Cardano has been consolidating near the lower end of its range in recent months, having already given up more than half of its gains since the lows of October. It pulled back under the 200-day average and formed a "death cross." #Litecoin has also not recovered from the powerful blow in April, testing its 200-day average.
#XRP is trading around the $0.5 level, a historically important level that has seen prolonged consolidation since September 2022. An upward support line can be drawn through the area of the lows of the last two years, but XRP fell below it on 12-13 April. This line worked as resistance for the next two local peaks at the end of April and the beginning of May. All this sets up a bearish scenario with a pullback to the long-term support at $0.25-30.
#XRP is trading around the $0.5 level, a historically important level that has seen prolonged consolidation since September 2022. An upward support line can be drawn through the area of the lows of the last two years, but XRP fell below it on 12-13 April. This line worked as resistance for the next two local peaks at the end of April and the beginning of May. All this sets up a bearish scenario with a pullback to the long-term support at $0.25-30.
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#WaveAnalysis #GS
Goldman Sachs broke the key resistance level 430.00
Likely to rise to resistance level 470.00
Goldman Sachs continues to rise inside the accelerated impulse wave 3, which previously broke the key resistance level 430.00.
The breakout of the resistance level 430.00 coincided with the breakout of the daily up channel from the start of January.
Give the clear daily uptrend, Goldman Sachs can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 470.00, target for the completion of the active impulse wave 3.
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Goldman Sachs broke the key resistance level 430.00
Likely to rise to resistance level 470.00
Goldman Sachs continues to rise inside the accelerated impulse wave 3, which previously broke the key resistance level 430.00.
The breakout of the resistance level 430.00 coincided with the breakout of the daily up channel from the start of January.
Give the clear daily uptrend, Goldman Sachs can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 470.00, target for the completion of the active impulse wave 3.
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The US dollar has been under relentless pressure since last Thursday, approaching one-month lows against the euro and the pound.
In general, we can identify a downward trend in the dollar index since April 16. This momentum has become more evident since the first days of May, although we have seen a couple of days of dollar strength.
Earlier this week, EURUSD quietly made an important technical breakout. In addition to accelerating the upward trend, over the past two days, the major pair has consolidated above the 50- and 200-day moving averages, which have almost merged into one since early April.
EURUSD has been adding for almost a month and has nearly fully recovered to local peaks in the first half of April. It would be a mistake to think that the dollar is easily rising and slowly retreating. If we take trading volumes into account, we see significant net selling of the dollar, as it takes much less liquidity to cause the pair to collapse over two days than to form a smooth upward trend over a month.
In general, we can identify a downward trend in the dollar index since April 16. This momentum has become more evident since the first days of May, although we have seen a couple of days of dollar strength.
Earlier this week, EURUSD quietly made an important technical breakout. In addition to accelerating the upward trend, over the past two days, the major pair has consolidated above the 50- and 200-day moving averages, which have almost merged into one since early April.
EURUSD has been adding for almost a month and has nearly fully recovered to local peaks in the first half of April. It would be a mistake to think that the dollar is easily rising and slowly retreating. If we take trading volumes into account, we see significant net selling of the dollar, as it takes much less liquidity to cause the pair to collapse over two days than to form a smooth upward trend over a month.
Thus, EURUSD has successfully withstood another test of the 1.05-1.06 support area, which has endured the onslaught of sellers since early 2023. The first significant target of this rise looks like the upper boundary of this range of the significant round level of 1.10. Or even higher - to 1.1150 with a new attempt to overcome the 200-week moving average, which has turned EURUSD three times since the beginning of 2022.
An even more ambitious but realistic task for the bulls could be a new attempt to consolidate above the 1.20-1.25 area, a crucial historical area that served as support between 2004-2014 and resistance for the last 10 years.
Confirmation of a bullish reversal in EURUSD will be a sustained growth above 1.0860 - the April highs area. This ability to rise further will break the downtrend that has been forming since the final days of last year.
An even more ambitious but realistic task for the bulls could be a new attempt to consolidate above the 1.20-1.25 area, a crucial historical area that served as support between 2004-2014 and resistance for the last 10 years.
Confirmation of a bullish reversal in EURUSD will be a sustained growth above 1.0860 - the April highs area. This ability to rise further will break the downtrend that has been forming since the final days of last year.
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#WaveAnalysis
• AUDUSD broke key resistance level 0.6650
• Likely to reach resistance level 0.6760
AUDUSD currency pair recently broke the key resistance level 0.6650, which has been reversing the pair from the start of March.
The breakout of the resistance level 0.6650 coincided with the breakout of the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the downward correction from the end of December – which accelerated the active impulse wave 3.
Given the strongly bearish USD sentiment, AUDUSD currency pair can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 0.6760, former resistance from January and the target for the completion of the active wave 2.
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• AUDUSD broke key resistance level 0.6650
• Likely to reach resistance level 0.6760
AUDUSD currency pair recently broke the key resistance level 0.6650, which has been reversing the pair from the start of March.
The breakout of the resistance level 0.6650 coincided with the breakout of the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the downward correction from the end of December – which accelerated the active impulse wave 3.
Given the strongly bearish USD sentiment, AUDUSD currency pair can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 0.6760, former resistance from January and the target for the completion of the active wave 2.
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#WaveAnalysis
• #Gold broke daily down channel
• Likely to reach resistance level 2415.00
Gold recently broke the resistance trendline of the narrow daily down channel from April, which enclosed the previous ABC correction (4).
The breakout of this down channel accelerated the active intermediate impulse wave (5) – which belongs to the higher order impulse sequence from October.
Given the predominant daily uptrend, Gold can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 2415.00, which reversed the price twice in April.
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• #Gold broke daily down channel
• Likely to reach resistance level 2415.00
Gold recently broke the resistance trendline of the narrow daily down channel from April, which enclosed the previous ABC correction (4).
The breakout of this down channel accelerated the active intermediate impulse wave (5) – which belongs to the higher order impulse sequence from October.
Given the predominant daily uptrend, Gold can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 2415.00, which reversed the price twice in April.
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The release of US inflation data sparked a surge in risk asset purchases, with #crypto leading the charge. This follows a period of prolonged consolidation, which provided enough pent-up energy to fuel increased volatility.
Over the past 24 hours, the crypto market has added 5.3% to $2.39 trillion. The market has broken through the resistance of the descending range and is now testing the previous highs. The market's ability to gain weight on Thursday and Friday will be an important confirmation of the market's bullish bias. Potentially, this break opens the way to the highs of March, when cap exceeded $2.75 trillion.
#Bitcoin has broken out of its short-term triangle in one fell swoop, consolidating above its 50-day moving average and previous local highs. Yesterday may well have seen the end of the correction and the start of a new round of buying. It is worth being prepared for Bitcoin to meet a few obstacles on its way to $72K, although a renewal of historical highs is unlikely to be quiet.
Over the past 24 hours, the crypto market has added 5.3% to $2.39 trillion. The market has broken through the resistance of the descending range and is now testing the previous highs. The market's ability to gain weight on Thursday and Friday will be an important confirmation of the market's bullish bias. Potentially, this break opens the way to the highs of March, when cap exceeded $2.75 trillion.
#Bitcoin has broken out of its short-term triangle in one fell swoop, consolidating above its 50-day moving average and previous local highs. Yesterday may well have seen the end of the correction and the start of a new round of buying. It is worth being prepared for Bitcoin to meet a few obstacles on its way to $72K, although a renewal of historical highs is unlikely to be quiet.
Silver climbed above $29.8, rewriting the highs from January 2021, but once again faced selling intensification from that level for the first time in four years and has pulled back to $29.40 at the time of writing.
Silver does not look overheated, as it is only now entering overbought territory on the RSI on the daily timeframes. Last month, silver was actively added for another three weeks after the RSI entered levels above 70. A two-week pullback in the second half of April later removed that overbought area. Technically, this clears the way up.
The upside potential after the pullback is also indicated by the April correction fitting into a classic Fibonacci pattern with a pullback to 61.8% of the initial rally from late February, followed by a quick recovery. A strong rise above the recent peaks will be an important confirmation of the growth extension and will make the $33 level a likely target for a new impulse.
Silver does not look overheated, as it is only now entering overbought territory on the RSI on the daily timeframes. Last month, silver was actively added for another three weeks after the RSI entered levels above 70. A two-week pullback in the second half of April later removed that overbought area. Technically, this clears the way up.
The upside potential after the pullback is also indicated by the April correction fitting into a classic Fibonacci pattern with a pullback to 61.8% of the initial rally from late February, followed by a quick recovery. A strong rise above the recent peaks will be an important confirmation of the growth extension and will make the $33 level a likely target for a new impulse.
We also note that the fresh assault on the 30 level came just a month after the previous one, and this rally started from a higher level than what we saw in March or 3-4 years ago.
Long-term trends are also on the bulls' side. In the last two years, they have been able to quickly turn the price to the upside after dips under the 200-week moving average. This year, the price is successfully pulling away from that line, but the most furious part of the rally may be ahead.
Silver could be ready to repeat the growth spurt it showed in 2010-2011. Back then, the multi-year resistance was at the $20 level, and the acceleration came after the 50-week moving average exceeded the 200-week moving average, and the price took that important round level. We have already gotten the first signal, so we must wait for the overcoming of $30 at the end of the week to confirm the bullish sentiment.
A move above $30 will make us seriously consider levels above $50/oz as a long-term target, repeating the 2011 and 1980 peaks.
Long-term trends are also on the bulls' side. In the last two years, they have been able to quickly turn the price to the upside after dips under the 200-week moving average. This year, the price is successfully pulling away from that line, but the most furious part of the rally may be ahead.
Silver could be ready to repeat the growth spurt it showed in 2010-2011. Back then, the multi-year resistance was at the $20 level, and the acceleration came after the 50-week moving average exceeded the 200-week moving average, and the price took that important round level. We have already gotten the first signal, so we must wait for the overcoming of $30 at the end of the week to confirm the bullish sentiment.
A move above $30 will make us seriously consider levels above $50/oz as a long-term target, repeating the 2011 and 1980 peaks.