The #crypto market added 2.8% in the last 24 hours to a total cap of $2.34 trillion, returning to the levels of the start of the week. Bitcoin was up 2.7%, #Ethereum +1.8%, with #Solana (+7.3%) and #Toncoin (+13%) shining once again. The capitalisation of the latter ($23.7B) is approaching the level of #XRP ($28.6B). The gap is an impressive 20% but substantially narrowed over the last week as XRP lost 1% while Ton gained 28%.
#Bitcoin has made two attempts since the start of the day on Friday to break the $63.0K level, which doesn't look like a meaningful turning point. Much more interest is focused on the $64.0K area on the upside and $60.0K on the downside.
Trading volumes on crypto exchanges declined for the first time in seven months. According to CCData, the combined volume of spot and derivative cryptocurrency markets fell 43.8% to $6.58 trillion in April, following a record high of $9.12 trillion in March.
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#Bitcoin has made two attempts since the start of the day on Friday to break the $63.0K level, which doesn't look like a meaningful turning point. Much more interest is focused on the $64.0K area on the upside and $60.0K on the downside.
Trading volumes on crypto exchanges declined for the first time in seven months. According to CCData, the combined volume of spot and derivative cryptocurrency markets fell 43.8% to $6.58 trillion in April, following a record high of $9.12 trillion in March.
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#WaveAnalysis #GS
Goldman Sachs rising inside impulse waves 3 and (3)
Likely to rise to resistance level 460.00
Goldman Sachs rising strongly after the price broke the major resistance level 424.00 (which stopped the previous sharp uptrend at the end of May, as can be seen from the daily Goldman Sachs chart below).
The breakout of the resistance level 424.00 accelerated the active impulse waves 3 and (3).
Given the clear daily and the weekly uptrends Goldman Sachs can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 460.00, target price for the completion of the active impulse wave 3.
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Goldman Sachs rising inside impulse waves 3 and (3)
Likely to rise to resistance level 460.00
Goldman Sachs rising strongly after the price broke the major resistance level 424.00 (which stopped the previous sharp uptrend at the end of May, as can be seen from the daily Goldman Sachs chart below).
The breakout of the resistance level 424.00 accelerated the active impulse waves 3 and (3).
Given the clear daily and the weekly uptrends Goldman Sachs can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 460.00, target price for the completion of the active impulse wave 3.
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#WaveAnalysis #ADBE
Adobe reversed from resistance level 500.00
Likely to fall to support level 460.00
Adobe recently reversed down from the round resistance level 500.00 (former multi-month support from September of last year).
The resistance level 500.00 was strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band and by the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the previous downward impulse from March.
Given the clear daily downtrend, Adobe can be expected to fall further to the next support level 460.00, which stopped the previous impulse wave 3.
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Adobe reversed from resistance level 500.00
Likely to fall to support level 460.00
Adobe recently reversed down from the round resistance level 500.00 (former multi-month support from September of last year).
The resistance level 500.00 was strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band and by the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the previous downward impulse from March.
Given the clear daily downtrend, Adobe can be expected to fall further to the next support level 460.00, which stopped the previous impulse wave 3.
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Gold and silver have been enjoying a return to demand since early May, and buyers have stepped up in the last couple of days, bringing gold back above $2370 and silver back above $28.5.
#Silver has recovered to the $28.0-28.8 area from where it reversed down in April after a few days of consolidation. This week's upward momentum revives the idea that the decline in the second half of April was a corrective pullback. The area of local lows in early May roughly coincides with the 61.8% pullback from the upside momentum from late February to the upper boundary of the consolidation area we discussed above.
This bullish scenario will be confirmed if the price consolidates above $28.8, which would open the way to the $33 area as a potential first stop. However, we need to remember that Silver has failed to do so for the past 11 years, with three significant episodes in 2020 and 2021 before the April test.
#Silver has recovered to the $28.0-28.8 area from where it reversed down in April after a few days of consolidation. This week's upward momentum revives the idea that the decline in the second half of April was a corrective pullback. The area of local lows in early May roughly coincides with the 61.8% pullback from the upside momentum from late February to the upper boundary of the consolidation area we discussed above.
This bullish scenario will be confirmed if the price consolidates above $28.8, which would open the way to the $33 area as a potential first stop. However, we need to remember that Silver has failed to do so for the past 11 years, with three significant episodes in 2020 and 2021 before the April test.
Gold is about half as far behind silver in terms of relative recovery momentum and has not yet been able to recoup all the losses from the 22 April price hit. However, we should consider that gold quotes have been periodically updating historical highs since February.
In gold, we can also consider the April retreat as a correction to the area of 76.4% of the growth impulse from the minimum close of the day in February to the maximum close in April. In this case, the growth target becomes the area of $2640 (161.8% of the initial rally).
At the same time, a further rise in the price of gold with high bond yields in developed countries, huge budget deficits in many countries and the need to support the economy makes one think that the upside potential is limited. Until gold and silver reach a new level, we doubt the success of a new attack on the highs and see the potential for a renewed decline.
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In gold, we can also consider the April retreat as a correction to the area of 76.4% of the growth impulse from the minimum close of the day in February to the maximum close in April. In this case, the growth target becomes the area of $2640 (161.8% of the initial rally).
At the same time, a further rise in the price of gold with high bond yields in developed countries, huge budget deficits in many countries and the need to support the economy makes one think that the upside potential is limited. Until gold and silver reach a new level, we doubt the success of a new attack on the highs and see the potential for a renewed decline.
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#Crypto market cap on Monday stands at $2.2 trillion, down 5.2% over 7 days, although it showed some growth over the weekend. The capitalisation peaked on March 14th, but the active decline began about a month ago, with a sequence of lower lows and lower highs.
During the previous week, the crypto market held near the upper boundary of the descending channel.
Cryptocurrencies are being helped by increased risk traction in stock markets. Still, there is also internal pressure, likely related to asset sell-offs by miners and fears of tighter regulation of cryptocurrencies.
#Bitcoin is largely negatively impacting the overall performance of the crypto market right now. However, it has been finding plenty of buyer interest over the past two months, on a decline towards $60K. A failure below it could trigger something of a panic sell-off. The positive scenario will become the main one with a rise above $65K, fixing the price at the 50-day moving average and the reversal area in early May.
During the previous week, the crypto market held near the upper boundary of the descending channel.
Cryptocurrencies are being helped by increased risk traction in stock markets. Still, there is also internal pressure, likely related to asset sell-offs by miners and fears of tighter regulation of cryptocurrencies.
#Bitcoin is largely negatively impacting the overall performance of the crypto market right now. However, it has been finding plenty of buyer interest over the past two months, on a decline towards $60K. A failure below it could trigger something of a panic sell-off. The positive scenario will become the main one with a rise above $65K, fixing the price at the 50-day moving average and the reversal area in early May.
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#WaveAnalysis
#Platinum reversed from resistance level 1010
Likely to fall to support level 990
Platinum just reversed down from the major resistance level 1010, which has been reversing the price from the end of December.
The resistance level 1010 stands well above the upper daily Bollinger Band – increasing the possibility of the sharp correction in the near-term future.
Give the strength of the resistance level 1010, overbought daily Stochastic, Platinum can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 990.
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#Platinum reversed from resistance level 1010
Likely to fall to support level 990
Platinum just reversed down from the major resistance level 1010, which has been reversing the price from the end of December.
The resistance level 1010 stands well above the upper daily Bollinger Band – increasing the possibility of the sharp correction in the near-term future.
Give the strength of the resistance level 1010, overbought daily Stochastic, Platinum can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 990.
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#Crypto market cap rose 0.8% over the past 24 hours to 2.2 trillion, but growth exceeded 2% for most of the period. However, it dipped at the start of active European trading.
Bitcoin has added 0.9% over the past 24h, while Ethereum has increased by 0.15%. The top coins' performance varied from falling by 1% (BNB) and 0.8% (TON) to growing by 7.3% (DOGE) and 4.2% (SOL).
#Bitcoin reversed on Monday on its approach to the $63.0K level, just below the pivot area on Friday, continuing a series of lower local highs. This time, it was at a significant distance from the 50-day moving average.
However, the pattern is even more negative in #Ethereum, where the price has pulled back to the lower end of the range of the last three months, near $2900, drawing a bearish triangle. Technically, breaking this support opens the way to $1600-1500. This sounds like an overly negative scenario, and in our opinion, it is worth being prepared that Ethereum could attract enough buyers already on a dip into the $2500-2700 area.
Bitcoin has added 0.9% over the past 24h, while Ethereum has increased by 0.15%. The top coins' performance varied from falling by 1% (BNB) and 0.8% (TON) to growing by 7.3% (DOGE) and 4.2% (SOL).
#Bitcoin reversed on Monday on its approach to the $63.0K level, just below the pivot area on Friday, continuing a series of lower local highs. This time, it was at a significant distance from the 50-day moving average.
However, the pattern is even more negative in #Ethereum, where the price has pulled back to the lower end of the range of the last three months, near $2900, drawing a bearish triangle. Technically, breaking this support opens the way to $1600-1500. This sounds like an overly negative scenario, and in our opinion, it is worth being prepared that Ethereum could attract enough buyers already on a dip into the $2500-2700 area.
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#WaveAnalysis #KO
Coca-Cola rising inside sharp impulse wave (3)
Likely to reach resistance level 64.00
Coca-Cola rising inside the sharp upward impulse wave (3), which started earlier from the key support level 61.00 (former strong resistance from February ad March).
The price has been reversing up from the lower trendline of the sharp upward channel from April – highlighting the strength of the active impulse wave (3).
Give the clear multi-moth uptrend, Coca-Cola can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 64.00.
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Coca-Cola rising inside sharp impulse wave (3)
Likely to reach resistance level 64.00
Coca-Cola rising inside the sharp upward impulse wave (3), which started earlier from the key support level 61.00 (former strong resistance from February ad March).
The price has been reversing up from the lower trendline of the sharp upward channel from April – highlighting the strength of the active impulse wave (3).
Give the clear multi-moth uptrend, Coca-Cola can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 64.00.
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Oil is retreating but unlikely to repeat the collapses of 2020, 2014 or 2008
Crude oil has been under pressure over the past four weeks but has been gaining support on the decline to $77 per barrel #WTI and $82 per barrel #Brent since the beginning of the month. The price has been consolidating in roughly the same area for over a month since the second half of February. Then, there was a prolonged pause in growth to overcome the 200-day average. Now, it could be a pause before a further plunge.
The bears showed their strength a fortnight ago, causing a 4.5% drop in two days and pushing the price immediately below the 50- and 200-day moving averages, which are filters of the medium- and long-term trend, respectively. From this perspective, the subsequent consolidation last week and at the start of this week may be an attempt to remove excessive short-term oversold and build strength and liquidity for a new attack.
Crude oil has been under pressure over the past four weeks but has been gaining support on the decline to $77 per barrel #WTI and $82 per barrel #Brent since the beginning of the month. The price has been consolidating in roughly the same area for over a month since the second half of February. Then, there was a prolonged pause in growth to overcome the 200-day average. Now, it could be a pause before a further plunge.
The bears showed their strength a fortnight ago, causing a 4.5% drop in two days and pushing the price immediately below the 50- and 200-day moving averages, which are filters of the medium- and long-term trend, respectively. From this perspective, the subsequent consolidation last week and at the start of this week may be an attempt to remove excessive short-term oversold and build strength and liquidity for a new attack.
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Also, the latest consolidation area roughly coincides with the support of the ascending corridor that has been in force for the past five months. A new downside momentum would be a formal prologue to break the uptrend with a potential downside target at $75 for WTI and around $79 for Brent.
Near these levels lies the 200-week moving average, a dip below which has intensified discussions on production cuts, resulting in an upward reversal of prices. Impulsive dips below did not exceed 3% for over a year.
The US government's stance has also changed over the past two years, and we are seeing buying to replenish reserves in downturns, as was the case late last year and early this year.
Near these levels lies the 200-week moving average, a dip below which has intensified discussions on production cuts, resulting in an upward reversal of prices. Impulsive dips below did not exceed 3% for over a year.
The US government's stance has also changed over the past two years, and we are seeing buying to replenish reserves in downturns, as was the case late last year and early this year.
Of course, OPEC support and purchases into US reserves do not provide infinite support, and the market easily passed it in 2020, 2014 and 2008, and briefly in 2018 if we take the most recent history. Thus, oil's failure under $72.5 for WTI and $76.3 for Brent could signal that the sellers have the upper hand this time.
If this is a repeat of the almost free-fall that we saw in 2020, 2014 or 2008, the price could well plunge back into the $30 area. Near that price, most production becomes unprofitable. However, this has only happened because of a marked dysfunction in the financial markets. So far, there are no signs of this, although the situation may change quickly.
Still, the main scenario, we believe, is that oil returns to growth due to the ease with which OPEC+ can remove 0.5% of global production from the market - enough to reverse the trend. Also, we should not overlook the rise in commodity prices in recent weeks as China has increased steps to stimulate growth.
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If this is a repeat of the almost free-fall that we saw in 2020, 2014 or 2008, the price could well plunge back into the $30 area. Near that price, most production becomes unprofitable. However, this has only happened because of a marked dysfunction in the financial markets. So far, there are no signs of this, although the situation may change quickly.
Still, the main scenario, we believe, is that oil returns to growth due to the ease with which OPEC+ can remove 0.5% of global production from the market - enough to reverse the trend. Also, we should not overlook the rise in commodity prices in recent weeks as China has increased steps to stimulate growth.
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#WaveAnalysis
#EURCHF rising inside impulse wave 3
Likely to reach resistance level 0.9835
EURCHF currency pair continues to rise inside the impulse wave 3, which started earlier from the support trendline of the daily Triangle from April.
The active impulse wave 3 belongs to the higher order impulse wave (3) from the middle of April.
Given the strong daily uptrend, EURCHF currency pair can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 0.9835, which stopped the previous waves (1), B and 1.
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#EURCHF rising inside impulse wave 3
Likely to reach resistance level 0.9835
EURCHF currency pair continues to rise inside the impulse wave 3, which started earlier from the support trendline of the daily Triangle from April.
The active impulse wave 3 belongs to the higher order impulse wave (3) from the middle of April.
Given the strong daily uptrend, EURCHF currency pair can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 0.9835, which stopped the previous waves (1), B and 1.
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Neither the meme mania in equities, the overall positivity in stock indices, nor the weakening dollar seems to be helping cryptocurrencies right now. #Crypto market cap is down 0.1% and has been moving around the current $2.29 trillion level for the past seven days.
#Bitcoin is trading near $61.9K, forming a sequence of higher intraday lows on the daily timeframes. Meanwhile, a month-old downside resistance is still in place. Bitcoin is approaching the top of this triangle, which could lead to a sharp increase in volatility. The trigger in the near term promises to be the US inflation report, which has had a strong impact on markets, including cryptocurrencies, in recent months.
#Bitcoin is trading near $61.9K, forming a sequence of higher intraday lows on the daily timeframes. Meanwhile, a month-old downside resistance is still in place. Bitcoin is approaching the top of this triangle, which could lead to a sharp increase in volatility. The trigger in the near term promises to be the US inflation report, which has had a strong impact on markets, including cryptocurrencies, in recent months.
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The medium-term picture also indicates that some old altcoins are having a tough time. In addition to #Ethereum, #Cardano has been consolidating near the lower end of its range in recent months, having already given up more than half of its gains since the lows of October. It pulled back under the 200-day average and formed a "death cross." #Litecoin has also not recovered from the powerful blow in April, testing its 200-day average.
#XRP is trading around the $0.5 level, a historically important level that has seen prolonged consolidation since September 2022. An upward support line can be drawn through the area of the lows of the last two years, but XRP fell below it on 12-13 April. This line worked as resistance for the next two local peaks at the end of April and the beginning of May. All this sets up a bearish scenario with a pullback to the long-term support at $0.25-30.
#XRP is trading around the $0.5 level, a historically important level that has seen prolonged consolidation since September 2022. An upward support line can be drawn through the area of the lows of the last two years, but XRP fell below it on 12-13 April. This line worked as resistance for the next two local peaks at the end of April and the beginning of May. All this sets up a bearish scenario with a pullback to the long-term support at $0.25-30.
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#WaveAnalysis #GS
Goldman Sachs broke the key resistance level 430.00
Likely to rise to resistance level 470.00
Goldman Sachs continues to rise inside the accelerated impulse wave 3, which previously broke the key resistance level 430.00.
The breakout of the resistance level 430.00 coincided with the breakout of the daily up channel from the start of January.
Give the clear daily uptrend, Goldman Sachs can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 470.00, target for the completion of the active impulse wave 3.
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Goldman Sachs broke the key resistance level 430.00
Likely to rise to resistance level 470.00
Goldman Sachs continues to rise inside the accelerated impulse wave 3, which previously broke the key resistance level 430.00.
The breakout of the resistance level 430.00 coincided with the breakout of the daily up channel from the start of January.
Give the clear daily uptrend, Goldman Sachs can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 470.00, target for the completion of the active impulse wave 3.
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The US dollar has been under relentless pressure since last Thursday, approaching one-month lows against the euro and the pound.
In general, we can identify a downward trend in the dollar index since April 16. This momentum has become more evident since the first days of May, although we have seen a couple of days of dollar strength.
Earlier this week, EURUSD quietly made an important technical breakout. In addition to accelerating the upward trend, over the past two days, the major pair has consolidated above the 50- and 200-day moving averages, which have almost merged into one since early April.
EURUSD has been adding for almost a month and has nearly fully recovered to local peaks in the first half of April. It would be a mistake to think that the dollar is easily rising and slowly retreating. If we take trading volumes into account, we see significant net selling of the dollar, as it takes much less liquidity to cause the pair to collapse over two days than to form a smooth upward trend over a month.
In general, we can identify a downward trend in the dollar index since April 16. This momentum has become more evident since the first days of May, although we have seen a couple of days of dollar strength.
Earlier this week, EURUSD quietly made an important technical breakout. In addition to accelerating the upward trend, over the past two days, the major pair has consolidated above the 50- and 200-day moving averages, which have almost merged into one since early April.
EURUSD has been adding for almost a month and has nearly fully recovered to local peaks in the first half of April. It would be a mistake to think that the dollar is easily rising and slowly retreating. If we take trading volumes into account, we see significant net selling of the dollar, as it takes much less liquidity to cause the pair to collapse over two days than to form a smooth upward trend over a month.
Thus, EURUSD has successfully withstood another test of the 1.05-1.06 support area, which has endured the onslaught of sellers since early 2023. The first significant target of this rise looks like the upper boundary of this range of the significant round level of 1.10. Or even higher - to 1.1150 with a new attempt to overcome the 200-week moving average, which has turned EURUSD three times since the beginning of 2022.
An even more ambitious but realistic task for the bulls could be a new attempt to consolidate above the 1.20-1.25 area, a crucial historical area that served as support between 2004-2014 and resistance for the last 10 years.
Confirmation of a bullish reversal in EURUSD will be a sustained growth above 1.0860 - the April highs area. This ability to rise further will break the downtrend that has been forming since the final days of last year.
An even more ambitious but realistic task for the bulls could be a new attempt to consolidate above the 1.20-1.25 area, a crucial historical area that served as support between 2004-2014 and resistance for the last 10 years.
Confirmation of a bullish reversal in EURUSD will be a sustained growth above 1.0860 - the April highs area. This ability to rise further will break the downtrend that has been forming since the final days of last year.
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#WaveAnalysis
• AUDUSD broke key resistance level 0.6650
• Likely to reach resistance level 0.6760
AUDUSD currency pair recently broke the key resistance level 0.6650, which has been reversing the pair from the start of March.
The breakout of the resistance level 0.6650 coincided with the breakout of the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the downward correction from the end of December – which accelerated the active impulse wave 3.
Given the strongly bearish USD sentiment, AUDUSD currency pair can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 0.6760, former resistance from January and the target for the completion of the active wave 2.
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• AUDUSD broke key resistance level 0.6650
• Likely to reach resistance level 0.6760
AUDUSD currency pair recently broke the key resistance level 0.6650, which has been reversing the pair from the start of March.
The breakout of the resistance level 0.6650 coincided with the breakout of the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the downward correction from the end of December – which accelerated the active impulse wave 3.
Given the strongly bearish USD sentiment, AUDUSD currency pair can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 0.6760, former resistance from January and the target for the completion of the active wave 2.
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