🛢Crude Oil down 1% to near $82 for #Brent, the 8-week low 📉
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The #crypto market has lost 2% of its cap over the last 24 hours to $2.29 trillion. Bitcoin is losing 1.8%, Ethereum - 1.7%. Among the top altcoins, Solana is experiencing the biggest decline of 4%, while BNB has lost the least, just 0.5%.
#Bitcoin is drawing its fourth consecutive declining candle on Wednesday, registering a sequence of lower intraday highs and lows. The previous resistance line is temporarily acting as support.
#Ethereum is back to $3000, having been close to trading range support since late February. If the decline develops, we should pay attention to the dynamics near 2900. The break of this support will cause a drop to $2500-2600 in the main scenario, where the previous consolidation area and the 200-day moving average are located.
According to CoinShares, crypto funds saw outflows of $251M last week after $435M a week earlier. Bitcoin investments were down $284M. Ethereum funds saw net inflows of $30M after seven weeks of outflows.
#Bitcoin is drawing its fourth consecutive declining candle on Wednesday, registering a sequence of lower intraday highs and lows. The previous resistance line is temporarily acting as support.
#Ethereum is back to $3000, having been close to trading range support since late February. If the decline develops, we should pay attention to the dynamics near 2900. The break of this support will cause a drop to $2500-2600 in the main scenario, where the previous consolidation area and the 200-day moving average are located.
According to CoinShares, crypto funds saw outflows of $251M last week after $435M a week earlier. Bitcoin investments were down $284M. Ethereum funds saw net inflows of $30M after seven weeks of outflows.
US indices have been gaining daily since the beginning of May. They have found strength amid relatively weak job reports and quite upbeat quarterly earnings. The S&P500 and Nasdaq100 indices are just 1.5% below the all-time highs set in March.
The market downturn in the first three weeks of April has whetted bargain hunters’ appetite. Investors returned to buying on signs that the economy and labour market were cooling.
The decline in April effectively removed the overbought condition on the equity market, dipping into "fear" territory from the "extreme greed" seen in early March.
The market downturn in the first three weeks of April has whetted bargain hunters’ appetite. Investors returned to buying on signs that the economy and labour market were cooling.
The decline in April effectively removed the overbought condition on the equity market, dipping into "fear" territory from the "extreme greed" seen in early March.
We see the return of all three key US indices - Dow Jones, Nasdaq100 and S&P500 - back above their 50-day moving averages as a technically important signal. A weak labour market report last Friday shifted the balance in favour of buyers.
While the Japanese market went out of favour with speculators last month, their attention seems to have shifted to Europe. Almost daily, the FTSE100 index is updating all-time highs, adding 8% to the lows of 19 April. Germany's DAX40 has added 6% over the same time and is just 0.5% below its all-time high. These are indirect but rather important signs of risk appetite in global equity markets, which is also positive for the US market.
While the Japanese market went out of favour with speculators last month, their attention seems to have shifted to Europe. Almost daily, the FTSE100 index is updating all-time highs, adding 8% to the lows of 19 April. Germany's DAX40 has added 6% over the same time and is just 0.5% below its all-time high. These are indirect but rather important signs of risk appetite in global equity markets, which is also positive for the US market.
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The S&P500 corrected in April to 76.4% of the rally from the October lows to the peak in early April. This is not a classic 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, but it is also quite common in strong bull markets.
Confirmation of this bullish scenario would be a rally of the index above 5300 with a renewal of the all-time highs. According to the Fibonacci extension, the next strong correction will only be in the 6000 area in the 6–9-month timeframe. Within this scenario, the bullish targets for the Nasdaq100 will be the territory above 21000.
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Confirmation of this bullish scenario would be a rally of the index above 5300 with a renewal of the all-time highs. According to the Fibonacci extension, the next strong correction will only be in the 6000 area in the 6–9-month timeframe. Within this scenario, the bullish targets for the Nasdaq100 will be the territory above 21000.
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German industrial production continues to decline. The rate of contraction in March was slightly better than the average forecasts but maintained the downward trend.
The index of industrial production fell by 0.4% in March and by 3.3% y/y, having lost in annual terms for the last ten months.
German industrial production peaked at the end of 2017, and then it was turned down by trade wars, pandemic lockdowns, and the most recent impulse of deglobalisation. Here, you can discern both a cooling of relations with the second-biggest economy and a general slowdown.
Germany's industrial orders index, published a day earlier, fell in March to its lowest level since 2013, barring a sharp dip during the pandemic lockdowns.
Weakness in Germany's industrial sector could bring a rate cut from the ECB closer, softening the Bundesbank's traditionally hawkish bias.
The index of industrial production fell by 0.4% in March and by 3.3% y/y, having lost in annual terms for the last ten months.
German industrial production peaked at the end of 2017, and then it was turned down by trade wars, pandemic lockdowns, and the most recent impulse of deglobalisation. Here, you can discern both a cooling of relations with the second-biggest economy and a general slowdown.
Germany's industrial orders index, published a day earlier, fell in March to its lowest level since 2013, barring a sharp dip during the pandemic lockdowns.
Weakness in Germany's industrial sector could bring a rate cut from the ECB closer, softening the Bundesbank's traditionally hawkish bias.
The #crypto market added 2.8% in the last 24 hours to a total cap of $2.34 trillion, returning to the levels of the start of the week. Bitcoin was up 2.7%, #Ethereum +1.8%, with #Solana (+7.3%) and #Toncoin (+13%) shining once again. The capitalisation of the latter ($23.7B) is approaching the level of #XRP ($28.6B). The gap is an impressive 20% but substantially narrowed over the last week as XRP lost 1% while Ton gained 28%.
#Bitcoin has made two attempts since the start of the day on Friday to break the $63.0K level, which doesn't look like a meaningful turning point. Much more interest is focused on the $64.0K area on the upside and $60.0K on the downside.
Trading volumes on crypto exchanges declined for the first time in seven months. According to CCData, the combined volume of spot and derivative cryptocurrency markets fell 43.8% to $6.58 trillion in April, following a record high of $9.12 trillion in March.
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#Bitcoin has made two attempts since the start of the day on Friday to break the $63.0K level, which doesn't look like a meaningful turning point. Much more interest is focused on the $64.0K area on the upside and $60.0K on the downside.
Trading volumes on crypto exchanges declined for the first time in seven months. According to CCData, the combined volume of spot and derivative cryptocurrency markets fell 43.8% to $6.58 trillion in April, following a record high of $9.12 trillion in March.
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#WaveAnalysis #GS
Goldman Sachs rising inside impulse waves 3 and (3)
Likely to rise to resistance level 460.00
Goldman Sachs rising strongly after the price broke the major resistance level 424.00 (which stopped the previous sharp uptrend at the end of May, as can be seen from the daily Goldman Sachs chart below).
The breakout of the resistance level 424.00 accelerated the active impulse waves 3 and (3).
Given the clear daily and the weekly uptrends Goldman Sachs can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 460.00, target price for the completion of the active impulse wave 3.
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Goldman Sachs rising inside impulse waves 3 and (3)
Likely to rise to resistance level 460.00
Goldman Sachs rising strongly after the price broke the major resistance level 424.00 (which stopped the previous sharp uptrend at the end of May, as can be seen from the daily Goldman Sachs chart below).
The breakout of the resistance level 424.00 accelerated the active impulse waves 3 and (3).
Given the clear daily and the weekly uptrends Goldman Sachs can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 460.00, target price for the completion of the active impulse wave 3.
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#WaveAnalysis #ADBE
Adobe reversed from resistance level 500.00
Likely to fall to support level 460.00
Adobe recently reversed down from the round resistance level 500.00 (former multi-month support from September of last year).
The resistance level 500.00 was strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band and by the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the previous downward impulse from March.
Given the clear daily downtrend, Adobe can be expected to fall further to the next support level 460.00, which stopped the previous impulse wave 3.
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Adobe reversed from resistance level 500.00
Likely to fall to support level 460.00
Adobe recently reversed down from the round resistance level 500.00 (former multi-month support from September of last year).
The resistance level 500.00 was strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band and by the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the previous downward impulse from March.
Given the clear daily downtrend, Adobe can be expected to fall further to the next support level 460.00, which stopped the previous impulse wave 3.
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Gold and silver have been enjoying a return to demand since early May, and buyers have stepped up in the last couple of days, bringing gold back above $2370 and silver back above $28.5.
#Silver has recovered to the $28.0-28.8 area from where it reversed down in April after a few days of consolidation. This week's upward momentum revives the idea that the decline in the second half of April was a corrective pullback. The area of local lows in early May roughly coincides with the 61.8% pullback from the upside momentum from late February to the upper boundary of the consolidation area we discussed above.
This bullish scenario will be confirmed if the price consolidates above $28.8, which would open the way to the $33 area as a potential first stop. However, we need to remember that Silver has failed to do so for the past 11 years, with three significant episodes in 2020 and 2021 before the April test.
#Silver has recovered to the $28.0-28.8 area from where it reversed down in April after a few days of consolidation. This week's upward momentum revives the idea that the decline in the second half of April was a corrective pullback. The area of local lows in early May roughly coincides with the 61.8% pullback from the upside momentum from late February to the upper boundary of the consolidation area we discussed above.
This bullish scenario will be confirmed if the price consolidates above $28.8, which would open the way to the $33 area as a potential first stop. However, we need to remember that Silver has failed to do so for the past 11 years, with three significant episodes in 2020 and 2021 before the April test.
Gold is about half as far behind silver in terms of relative recovery momentum and has not yet been able to recoup all the losses from the 22 April price hit. However, we should consider that gold quotes have been periodically updating historical highs since February.
In gold, we can also consider the April retreat as a correction to the area of 76.4% of the growth impulse from the minimum close of the day in February to the maximum close in April. In this case, the growth target becomes the area of $2640 (161.8% of the initial rally).
At the same time, a further rise in the price of gold with high bond yields in developed countries, huge budget deficits in many countries and the need to support the economy makes one think that the upside potential is limited. Until gold and silver reach a new level, we doubt the success of a new attack on the highs and see the potential for a renewed decline.
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In gold, we can also consider the April retreat as a correction to the area of 76.4% of the growth impulse from the minimum close of the day in February to the maximum close in April. In this case, the growth target becomes the area of $2640 (161.8% of the initial rally).
At the same time, a further rise in the price of gold with high bond yields in developed countries, huge budget deficits in many countries and the need to support the economy makes one think that the upside potential is limited. Until gold and silver reach a new level, we doubt the success of a new attack on the highs and see the potential for a renewed decline.
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#Crypto market cap on Monday stands at $2.2 trillion, down 5.2% over 7 days, although it showed some growth over the weekend. The capitalisation peaked on March 14th, but the active decline began about a month ago, with a sequence of lower lows and lower highs.
During the previous week, the crypto market held near the upper boundary of the descending channel.
Cryptocurrencies are being helped by increased risk traction in stock markets. Still, there is also internal pressure, likely related to asset sell-offs by miners and fears of tighter regulation of cryptocurrencies.
#Bitcoin is largely negatively impacting the overall performance of the crypto market right now. However, it has been finding plenty of buyer interest over the past two months, on a decline towards $60K. A failure below it could trigger something of a panic sell-off. The positive scenario will become the main one with a rise above $65K, fixing the price at the 50-day moving average and the reversal area in early May.
During the previous week, the crypto market held near the upper boundary of the descending channel.
Cryptocurrencies are being helped by increased risk traction in stock markets. Still, there is also internal pressure, likely related to asset sell-offs by miners and fears of tighter regulation of cryptocurrencies.
#Bitcoin is largely negatively impacting the overall performance of the crypto market right now. However, it has been finding plenty of buyer interest over the past two months, on a decline towards $60K. A failure below it could trigger something of a panic sell-off. The positive scenario will become the main one with a rise above $65K, fixing the price at the 50-day moving average and the reversal area in early May.
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#WaveAnalysis
#Platinum reversed from resistance level 1010
Likely to fall to support level 990
Platinum just reversed down from the major resistance level 1010, which has been reversing the price from the end of December.
The resistance level 1010 stands well above the upper daily Bollinger Band – increasing the possibility of the sharp correction in the near-term future.
Give the strength of the resistance level 1010, overbought daily Stochastic, Platinum can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 990.
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#Platinum reversed from resistance level 1010
Likely to fall to support level 990
Platinum just reversed down from the major resistance level 1010, which has been reversing the price from the end of December.
The resistance level 1010 stands well above the upper daily Bollinger Band – increasing the possibility of the sharp correction in the near-term future.
Give the strength of the resistance level 1010, overbought daily Stochastic, Platinum can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 990.
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#Crypto market cap rose 0.8% over the past 24 hours to 2.2 trillion, but growth exceeded 2% for most of the period. However, it dipped at the start of active European trading.
Bitcoin has added 0.9% over the past 24h, while Ethereum has increased by 0.15%. The top coins' performance varied from falling by 1% (BNB) and 0.8% (TON) to growing by 7.3% (DOGE) and 4.2% (SOL).
#Bitcoin reversed on Monday on its approach to the $63.0K level, just below the pivot area on Friday, continuing a series of lower local highs. This time, it was at a significant distance from the 50-day moving average.
However, the pattern is even more negative in #Ethereum, where the price has pulled back to the lower end of the range of the last three months, near $2900, drawing a bearish triangle. Technically, breaking this support opens the way to $1600-1500. This sounds like an overly negative scenario, and in our opinion, it is worth being prepared that Ethereum could attract enough buyers already on a dip into the $2500-2700 area.
Bitcoin has added 0.9% over the past 24h, while Ethereum has increased by 0.15%. The top coins' performance varied from falling by 1% (BNB) and 0.8% (TON) to growing by 7.3% (DOGE) and 4.2% (SOL).
#Bitcoin reversed on Monday on its approach to the $63.0K level, just below the pivot area on Friday, continuing a series of lower local highs. This time, it was at a significant distance from the 50-day moving average.
However, the pattern is even more negative in #Ethereum, where the price has pulled back to the lower end of the range of the last three months, near $2900, drawing a bearish triangle. Technically, breaking this support opens the way to $1600-1500. This sounds like an overly negative scenario, and in our opinion, it is worth being prepared that Ethereum could attract enough buyers already on a dip into the $2500-2700 area.
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#WaveAnalysis #KO
Coca-Cola rising inside sharp impulse wave (3)
Likely to reach resistance level 64.00
Coca-Cola rising inside the sharp upward impulse wave (3), which started earlier from the key support level 61.00 (former strong resistance from February ad March).
The price has been reversing up from the lower trendline of the sharp upward channel from April – highlighting the strength of the active impulse wave (3).
Give the clear multi-moth uptrend, Coca-Cola can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 64.00.
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Coca-Cola rising inside sharp impulse wave (3)
Likely to reach resistance level 64.00
Coca-Cola rising inside the sharp upward impulse wave (3), which started earlier from the key support level 61.00 (former strong resistance from February ad March).
The price has been reversing up from the lower trendline of the sharp upward channel from April – highlighting the strength of the active impulse wave (3).
Give the clear multi-moth uptrend, Coca-Cola can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 64.00.
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Oil is retreating but unlikely to repeat the collapses of 2020, 2014 or 2008
Crude oil has been under pressure over the past four weeks but has been gaining support on the decline to $77 per barrel #WTI and $82 per barrel #Brent since the beginning of the month. The price has been consolidating in roughly the same area for over a month since the second half of February. Then, there was a prolonged pause in growth to overcome the 200-day average. Now, it could be a pause before a further plunge.
The bears showed their strength a fortnight ago, causing a 4.5% drop in two days and pushing the price immediately below the 50- and 200-day moving averages, which are filters of the medium- and long-term trend, respectively. From this perspective, the subsequent consolidation last week and at the start of this week may be an attempt to remove excessive short-term oversold and build strength and liquidity for a new attack.
Crude oil has been under pressure over the past four weeks but has been gaining support on the decline to $77 per barrel #WTI and $82 per barrel #Brent since the beginning of the month. The price has been consolidating in roughly the same area for over a month since the second half of February. Then, there was a prolonged pause in growth to overcome the 200-day average. Now, it could be a pause before a further plunge.
The bears showed their strength a fortnight ago, causing a 4.5% drop in two days and pushing the price immediately below the 50- and 200-day moving averages, which are filters of the medium- and long-term trend, respectively. From this perspective, the subsequent consolidation last week and at the start of this week may be an attempt to remove excessive short-term oversold and build strength and liquidity for a new attack.
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Also, the latest consolidation area roughly coincides with the support of the ascending corridor that has been in force for the past five months. A new downside momentum would be a formal prologue to break the uptrend with a potential downside target at $75 for WTI and around $79 for Brent.
Near these levels lies the 200-week moving average, a dip below which has intensified discussions on production cuts, resulting in an upward reversal of prices. Impulsive dips below did not exceed 3% for over a year.
The US government's stance has also changed over the past two years, and we are seeing buying to replenish reserves in downturns, as was the case late last year and early this year.
Near these levels lies the 200-week moving average, a dip below which has intensified discussions on production cuts, resulting in an upward reversal of prices. Impulsive dips below did not exceed 3% for over a year.
The US government's stance has also changed over the past two years, and we are seeing buying to replenish reserves in downturns, as was the case late last year and early this year.