#WaveAnalysis
#USDJPY reversed from support zone
Likely to rise to resistance level 155.65
USDJPY currency pair recently reversed up from the support zone lying between the strong support level 152.00 (former multi-month high from November) and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from December.
The upward reversal from the support level 152.00 stopped the previous short-term correction 2.
Given the predominant daily uptrend and the strongly bullish US dollar sentiment seen across the FX markets today, USDJPY can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 155.65.
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#USDJPY reversed from support zone
Likely to rise to resistance level 155.65
USDJPY currency pair recently reversed up from the support zone lying between the strong support level 152.00 (former multi-month high from November) and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from December.
The upward reversal from the support level 152.00 stopped the previous short-term correction 2.
Given the predominant daily uptrend and the strongly bullish US dollar sentiment seen across the FX markets today, USDJPY can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 155.65.
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The #crypto market cap fell by 1.7% in 24 hours to $2.29 trillion, as Bitcoin lost 1.1% and Ethereum - 3%, but Solana has added 4%. However, the latter is noticeably out of step, with most of the other coins going down.
On Monday, #Bitcoin failed for the second time in a fortnight to break above the 50-day moving average. The price very easily went from $64.5K to $65.5K, where it met with impressive selling volume that pushed the price back to $62.6K by the end of the day.
The positive performance of Asian and European stock exchanges fuels the appetite for Bitcoin. It cannot be ruled out that we will see further attempts to climb above the 50-day MA.
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On Monday, #Bitcoin failed for the second time in a fortnight to break above the 50-day moving average. The price very easily went from $64.5K to $65.5K, where it met with impressive selling volume that pushed the price back to $62.6K by the end of the day.
The positive performance of Asian and European stock exchanges fuels the appetite for Bitcoin. It cannot be ruled out that we will see further attempts to climb above the 50-day MA.
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The single currency is trading near $1.076, waiting for further cues and facing serious resistance in its attempt to consolidate above 1.08 on Friday.
On Friday, EURUSD's growth accelerated against the trend of the previous three weeks on negative US labour market data for the dollar. However, the attempts of the bulls in the pair to consolidate above 1.08 failed.
It is easy to understand the sellers of the single currency, as the balance of risks is shifted towards a softer monetary policy in the eurozone compared to the US. ECB officials are cementing expectations of a June cut and fuelling sentiment that further cuts will follow. Friday's US labour market data narrowed the gap, as after it, the odds of a rate cut before September rose to 67% from 46% a week earlier.
And markets are used to playing up changes in US expectations first, only then spreading them to related markets.
Separately, we note that the market finds the euro attractive at current price levels.
On Friday, EURUSD's growth accelerated against the trend of the previous three weeks on negative US labour market data for the dollar. However, the attempts of the bulls in the pair to consolidate above 1.08 failed.
It is easy to understand the sellers of the single currency, as the balance of risks is shifted towards a softer monetary policy in the eurozone compared to the US. ECB officials are cementing expectations of a June cut and fuelling sentiment that further cuts will follow. Friday's US labour market data narrowed the gap, as after it, the odds of a rate cut before September rose to 67% from 46% a week earlier.
And markets are used to playing up changes in US expectations first, only then spreading them to related markets.
Separately, we note that the market finds the euro attractive at current price levels.
Throughout 2023, EURUSD was reversing to the upside, with an approach of 1.05. But last month's dip to 1.06 appeared attractive to cautious buyers.
The local technical picture points to a slight bearish bias as EURUSD is trading below its 200- and 50-day moving averages. Moreover, they are both pointing downward. On the other hand, the bulls have not given up trying to break through this resistance, making attempts on Friday and Monday in addition to accelerating the gains seen last month.
The bull and bear positions in EURUSD are very balanced, and this is a good time to watch what the next move will be. A sharp change, by 1% or so, in either direction could signal the start of a relatively long trend.
In terms of levels, EURUSD overcoming the 1.0850 level opens prospects for a rise to the 1.1050 area with the potential for further upside. On the contrary, a failure under 1.0650 could force buyers to regroup in the 1.05 area and possibly trigger a further downward trend.
The local technical picture points to a slight bearish bias as EURUSD is trading below its 200- and 50-day moving averages. Moreover, they are both pointing downward. On the other hand, the bulls have not given up trying to break through this resistance, making attempts on Friday and Monday in addition to accelerating the gains seen last month.
The bull and bear positions in EURUSD are very balanced, and this is a good time to watch what the next move will be. A sharp change, by 1% or so, in either direction could signal the start of a relatively long trend.
In terms of levels, EURUSD overcoming the 1.0850 level opens prospects for a rise to the 1.1050 area with the potential for further upside. On the contrary, a failure under 1.0650 could force buyers to regroup in the 1.05 area and possibly trigger a further downward trend.
#WaveAnalysis #SPX
S&P 500 reversed from support level 5000.00
– Likely to rise to resistance level 5300.00
S&P 500 index recently reversed up from the support zone lying between the round support level 5000.00 (which also stopped the previous correction (2)), lower daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from January.
The upward reversal from the support level 5000.00 stopped the previous short-term correction 2.
Given the strong uptrend that can be seen on the daily charts, S&P 500 index can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 5300.00 (which stopped the previous impulse wave 5 at the end of March).
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S&P 500 reversed from support level 5000.00
– Likely to rise to resistance level 5300.00
S&P 500 index recently reversed up from the support zone lying between the round support level 5000.00 (which also stopped the previous correction (2)), lower daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from January.
The upward reversal from the support level 5000.00 stopped the previous short-term correction 2.
Given the strong uptrend that can be seen on the daily charts, S&P 500 index can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 5300.00 (which stopped the previous impulse wave 5 at the end of March).
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#WaveAnalysis
#USDCHF reversed from support zone
Likely to rise to resistance level 0.9200
USDCHF currency pair recently reversed up from the support zone lying between the round support level 0.9000 (which has been reversing the price from March), lower daily Bollinger Band and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from March.
The upward reversal from the support level 0.9000 stopped the previous short-term correction ii.
Given the clear daily uptrend and the bullish US dollar sentiment seen across the currency markets today, USDCHF can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 0.9200 (which stopped the previous impulse wave i).
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#USDCHF reversed from support zone
Likely to rise to resistance level 0.9200
USDCHF currency pair recently reversed up from the support zone lying between the round support level 0.9000 (which has been reversing the price from March), lower daily Bollinger Band and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from March.
The upward reversal from the support level 0.9000 stopped the previous short-term correction ii.
Given the clear daily uptrend and the bullish US dollar sentiment seen across the currency markets today, USDCHF can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 0.9200 (which stopped the previous impulse wave i).
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🛢Crude Oil down 1% to near $82 for #Brent, the 8-week low 📉
👉Buy or Sell?
👉Buy or Sell?
Anonymous Poll
62%
BUY 📈
38%
SELL 📉
The #crypto market has lost 2% of its cap over the last 24 hours to $2.29 trillion. Bitcoin is losing 1.8%, Ethereum - 1.7%. Among the top altcoins, Solana is experiencing the biggest decline of 4%, while BNB has lost the least, just 0.5%.
#Bitcoin is drawing its fourth consecutive declining candle on Wednesday, registering a sequence of lower intraday highs and lows. The previous resistance line is temporarily acting as support.
#Ethereum is back to $3000, having been close to trading range support since late February. If the decline develops, we should pay attention to the dynamics near 2900. The break of this support will cause a drop to $2500-2600 in the main scenario, where the previous consolidation area and the 200-day moving average are located.
According to CoinShares, crypto funds saw outflows of $251M last week after $435M a week earlier. Bitcoin investments were down $284M. Ethereum funds saw net inflows of $30M after seven weeks of outflows.
#Bitcoin is drawing its fourth consecutive declining candle on Wednesday, registering a sequence of lower intraday highs and lows. The previous resistance line is temporarily acting as support.
#Ethereum is back to $3000, having been close to trading range support since late February. If the decline develops, we should pay attention to the dynamics near 2900. The break of this support will cause a drop to $2500-2600 in the main scenario, where the previous consolidation area and the 200-day moving average are located.
According to CoinShares, crypto funds saw outflows of $251M last week after $435M a week earlier. Bitcoin investments were down $284M. Ethereum funds saw net inflows of $30M after seven weeks of outflows.
US indices have been gaining daily since the beginning of May. They have found strength amid relatively weak job reports and quite upbeat quarterly earnings. The S&P500 and Nasdaq100 indices are just 1.5% below the all-time highs set in March.
The market downturn in the first three weeks of April has whetted bargain hunters’ appetite. Investors returned to buying on signs that the economy and labour market were cooling.
The decline in April effectively removed the overbought condition on the equity market, dipping into "fear" territory from the "extreme greed" seen in early March.
The market downturn in the first three weeks of April has whetted bargain hunters’ appetite. Investors returned to buying on signs that the economy and labour market were cooling.
The decline in April effectively removed the overbought condition on the equity market, dipping into "fear" territory from the "extreme greed" seen in early March.
We see the return of all three key US indices - Dow Jones, Nasdaq100 and S&P500 - back above their 50-day moving averages as a technically important signal. A weak labour market report last Friday shifted the balance in favour of buyers.
While the Japanese market went out of favour with speculators last month, their attention seems to have shifted to Europe. Almost daily, the FTSE100 index is updating all-time highs, adding 8% to the lows of 19 April. Germany's DAX40 has added 6% over the same time and is just 0.5% below its all-time high. These are indirect but rather important signs of risk appetite in global equity markets, which is also positive for the US market.
While the Japanese market went out of favour with speculators last month, their attention seems to have shifted to Europe. Almost daily, the FTSE100 index is updating all-time highs, adding 8% to the lows of 19 April. Germany's DAX40 has added 6% over the same time and is just 0.5% below its all-time high. These are indirect but rather important signs of risk appetite in global equity markets, which is also positive for the US market.
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The S&P500 corrected in April to 76.4% of the rally from the October lows to the peak in early April. This is not a classic 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, but it is also quite common in strong bull markets.
Confirmation of this bullish scenario would be a rally of the index above 5300 with a renewal of the all-time highs. According to the Fibonacci extension, the next strong correction will only be in the 6000 area in the 6–9-month timeframe. Within this scenario, the bullish targets for the Nasdaq100 will be the territory above 21000.
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Confirmation of this bullish scenario would be a rally of the index above 5300 with a renewal of the all-time highs. According to the Fibonacci extension, the next strong correction will only be in the 6000 area in the 6–9-month timeframe. Within this scenario, the bullish targets for the Nasdaq100 will be the territory above 21000.
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German industrial production continues to decline. The rate of contraction in March was slightly better than the average forecasts but maintained the downward trend.
The index of industrial production fell by 0.4% in March and by 3.3% y/y, having lost in annual terms for the last ten months.
German industrial production peaked at the end of 2017, and then it was turned down by trade wars, pandemic lockdowns, and the most recent impulse of deglobalisation. Here, you can discern both a cooling of relations with the second-biggest economy and a general slowdown.
Germany's industrial orders index, published a day earlier, fell in March to its lowest level since 2013, barring a sharp dip during the pandemic lockdowns.
Weakness in Germany's industrial sector could bring a rate cut from the ECB closer, softening the Bundesbank's traditionally hawkish bias.
The index of industrial production fell by 0.4% in March and by 3.3% y/y, having lost in annual terms for the last ten months.
German industrial production peaked at the end of 2017, and then it was turned down by trade wars, pandemic lockdowns, and the most recent impulse of deglobalisation. Here, you can discern both a cooling of relations with the second-biggest economy and a general slowdown.
Germany's industrial orders index, published a day earlier, fell in March to its lowest level since 2013, barring a sharp dip during the pandemic lockdowns.
Weakness in Germany's industrial sector could bring a rate cut from the ECB closer, softening the Bundesbank's traditionally hawkish bias.
The #crypto market added 2.8% in the last 24 hours to a total cap of $2.34 trillion, returning to the levels of the start of the week. Bitcoin was up 2.7%, #Ethereum +1.8%, with #Solana (+7.3%) and #Toncoin (+13%) shining once again. The capitalisation of the latter ($23.7B) is approaching the level of #XRP ($28.6B). The gap is an impressive 20% but substantially narrowed over the last week as XRP lost 1% while Ton gained 28%.
#Bitcoin has made two attempts since the start of the day on Friday to break the $63.0K level, which doesn't look like a meaningful turning point. Much more interest is focused on the $64.0K area on the upside and $60.0K on the downside.
Trading volumes on crypto exchanges declined for the first time in seven months. According to CCData, the combined volume of spot and derivative cryptocurrency markets fell 43.8% to $6.58 trillion in April, following a record high of $9.12 trillion in March.
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#Bitcoin has made two attempts since the start of the day on Friday to break the $63.0K level, which doesn't look like a meaningful turning point. Much more interest is focused on the $64.0K area on the upside and $60.0K on the downside.
Trading volumes on crypto exchanges declined for the first time in seven months. According to CCData, the combined volume of spot and derivative cryptocurrency markets fell 43.8% to $6.58 trillion in April, following a record high of $9.12 trillion in March.
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#WaveAnalysis #GS
Goldman Sachs rising inside impulse waves 3 and (3)
Likely to rise to resistance level 460.00
Goldman Sachs rising strongly after the price broke the major resistance level 424.00 (which stopped the previous sharp uptrend at the end of May, as can be seen from the daily Goldman Sachs chart below).
The breakout of the resistance level 424.00 accelerated the active impulse waves 3 and (3).
Given the clear daily and the weekly uptrends Goldman Sachs can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 460.00, target price for the completion of the active impulse wave 3.
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Goldman Sachs rising inside impulse waves 3 and (3)
Likely to rise to resistance level 460.00
Goldman Sachs rising strongly after the price broke the major resistance level 424.00 (which stopped the previous sharp uptrend at the end of May, as can be seen from the daily Goldman Sachs chart below).
The breakout of the resistance level 424.00 accelerated the active impulse waves 3 and (3).
Given the clear daily and the weekly uptrends Goldman Sachs can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 460.00, target price for the completion of the active impulse wave 3.
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#WaveAnalysis #ADBE
Adobe reversed from resistance level 500.00
Likely to fall to support level 460.00
Adobe recently reversed down from the round resistance level 500.00 (former multi-month support from September of last year).
The resistance level 500.00 was strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band and by the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the previous downward impulse from March.
Given the clear daily downtrend, Adobe can be expected to fall further to the next support level 460.00, which stopped the previous impulse wave 3.
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Adobe reversed from resistance level 500.00
Likely to fall to support level 460.00
Adobe recently reversed down from the round resistance level 500.00 (former multi-month support from September of last year).
The resistance level 500.00 was strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band and by the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the previous downward impulse from March.
Given the clear daily downtrend, Adobe can be expected to fall further to the next support level 460.00, which stopped the previous impulse wave 3.
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Gold and silver have been enjoying a return to demand since early May, and buyers have stepped up in the last couple of days, bringing gold back above $2370 and silver back above $28.5.
#Silver has recovered to the $28.0-28.8 area from where it reversed down in April after a few days of consolidation. This week's upward momentum revives the idea that the decline in the second half of April was a corrective pullback. The area of local lows in early May roughly coincides with the 61.8% pullback from the upside momentum from late February to the upper boundary of the consolidation area we discussed above.
This bullish scenario will be confirmed if the price consolidates above $28.8, which would open the way to the $33 area as a potential first stop. However, we need to remember that Silver has failed to do so for the past 11 years, with three significant episodes in 2020 and 2021 before the April test.
#Silver has recovered to the $28.0-28.8 area from where it reversed down in April after a few days of consolidation. This week's upward momentum revives the idea that the decline in the second half of April was a corrective pullback. The area of local lows in early May roughly coincides with the 61.8% pullback from the upside momentum from late February to the upper boundary of the consolidation area we discussed above.
This bullish scenario will be confirmed if the price consolidates above $28.8, which would open the way to the $33 area as a potential first stop. However, we need to remember that Silver has failed to do so for the past 11 years, with three significant episodes in 2020 and 2021 before the April test.
Gold is about half as far behind silver in terms of relative recovery momentum and has not yet been able to recoup all the losses from the 22 April price hit. However, we should consider that gold quotes have been periodically updating historical highs since February.
In gold, we can also consider the April retreat as a correction to the area of 76.4% of the growth impulse from the minimum close of the day in February to the maximum close in April. In this case, the growth target becomes the area of $2640 (161.8% of the initial rally).
At the same time, a further rise in the price of gold with high bond yields in developed countries, huge budget deficits in many countries and the need to support the economy makes one think that the upside potential is limited. Until gold and silver reach a new level, we doubt the success of a new attack on the highs and see the potential for a renewed decline.
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In gold, we can also consider the April retreat as a correction to the area of 76.4% of the growth impulse from the minimum close of the day in February to the maximum close in April. In this case, the growth target becomes the area of $2640 (161.8% of the initial rally).
At the same time, a further rise in the price of gold with high bond yields in developed countries, huge budget deficits in many countries and the need to support the economy makes one think that the upside potential is limited. Until gold and silver reach a new level, we doubt the success of a new attack on the highs and see the potential for a renewed decline.
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#Crypto market cap on Monday stands at $2.2 trillion, down 5.2% over 7 days, although it showed some growth over the weekend. The capitalisation peaked on March 14th, but the active decline began about a month ago, with a sequence of lower lows and lower highs.
During the previous week, the crypto market held near the upper boundary of the descending channel.
Cryptocurrencies are being helped by increased risk traction in stock markets. Still, there is also internal pressure, likely related to asset sell-offs by miners and fears of tighter regulation of cryptocurrencies.
#Bitcoin is largely negatively impacting the overall performance of the crypto market right now. However, it has been finding plenty of buyer interest over the past two months, on a decline towards $60K. A failure below it could trigger something of a panic sell-off. The positive scenario will become the main one with a rise above $65K, fixing the price at the 50-day moving average and the reversal area in early May.
During the previous week, the crypto market held near the upper boundary of the descending channel.
Cryptocurrencies are being helped by increased risk traction in stock markets. Still, there is also internal pressure, likely related to asset sell-offs by miners and fears of tighter regulation of cryptocurrencies.
#Bitcoin is largely negatively impacting the overall performance of the crypto market right now. However, it has been finding plenty of buyer interest over the past two months, on a decline towards $60K. A failure below it could trigger something of a panic sell-off. The positive scenario will become the main one with a rise above $65K, fixing the price at the 50-day moving average and the reversal area in early May.
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