#WaveAnalysis
#EURUSD broke support level 1.0730
Likely to fall to support level 1.0570
EURUSD currency pair fall after the earlier breakout of the key support level 1.0730 (which has been reversing the price from December) intersecting with the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the ABC correction (2) from October.
The breakout of the support level 1.0730 accelerated the iii-wave of the active impulse waves 3 and (3) .
Given the continuing bullish USD sentiment, EURUSD can be expected to fall further to the next support level 1.0570.
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#EURUSD broke support level 1.0730
Likely to fall to support level 1.0570
EURUSD currency pair fall after the earlier breakout of the key support level 1.0730 (which has been reversing the price from December) intersecting with the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the ABC correction (2) from October.
The breakout of the support level 1.0730 accelerated the iii-wave of the active impulse waves 3 and (3) .
Given the continuing bullish USD sentiment, EURUSD can be expected to fall further to the next support level 1.0570.
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The sell-off in US stock markets initial positivity. As a result, the #crypto market cap fell 5.4% in 24 hours to 2.29 trillion, back near the weekend lows. The market is hovering near the lows of March. This is a key moment in choosing the market’s direction for the coming weeks. A bounce out of this area will allow for the expectation of an early recovery to the recent highs. A dip below would likely trigger a broader liquidation of positions.
#Bitcoin has returned to the lows of the past 7 weeks, coinciding with the 61.8% retracement of the rally from the January lows. Bitcoin is choosing between a loosely controlled deepening of the decline or a reversal to growth. On the negative side, the 50-day MA acted as resistance on Monday.
According to CoinShares, crypto fund investments fell by $126 million last week after inflows of $646 million a week earlier. Bitcoin investments decreased by $110 million, Ethereum - by $29 million, and Solana - by $4 million.
#Bitcoin has returned to the lows of the past 7 weeks, coinciding with the 61.8% retracement of the rally from the January lows. Bitcoin is choosing between a loosely controlled deepening of the decline or a reversal to growth. On the negative side, the 50-day MA acted as resistance on Monday.
According to CoinShares, crypto fund investments fell by $126 million last week after inflows of $646 million a week earlier. Bitcoin investments decreased by $110 million, Ethereum - by $29 million, and Solana - by $4 million.
Gold has been behaving erratically correlated with global risk appetite in recent days.
On Friday, the price set an all-time high above $2430, losing $100 before the end of that day, nullifying the most furious final part of the rally within four hours. The final sell-off was in unison with the markets' fall. But on Monday, the pressure in the stock markets intensified again, and gold moved higher.
Neither geopolitics nor fear of interest rate moves explain these shifts. Gold seems to be living its own world, in which geopolitics is used as a convenient explanation for the rise, and the rise of the dollar is used as an ex post facto explanation for the decline.
In our view, the price run-up on Thursday and Friday morning was so significant because it occurred in thin air territory after many days of making new highs and caught a wave of stop orders above $2400.
The impressive profit-taking at the end of the day on Friday had every chance of reversing the uptrend, which most often happens.
On Friday, the price set an all-time high above $2430, losing $100 before the end of that day, nullifying the most furious final part of the rally within four hours. The final sell-off was in unison with the markets' fall. But on Monday, the pressure in the stock markets intensified again, and gold moved higher.
Neither geopolitics nor fear of interest rate moves explain these shifts. Gold seems to be living its own world, in which geopolitics is used as a convenient explanation for the rise, and the rise of the dollar is used as an ex post facto explanation for the decline.
In our view, the price run-up on Thursday and Friday morning was so significant because it occurred in thin air territory after many days of making new highs and caught a wave of stop orders above $2400.
The impressive profit-taking at the end of the day on Friday had every chance of reversing the uptrend, which most often happens.
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On the daily timeframes, the RSI index rolled back to 73, which is on the border with the overbought area, and recorded two peaks near 85 in March and April. A further pullback to the area below 70 would be a harbinger of a broad correction.
On weekly timeframes, the RSI is above 79, an overbought area that gold has touched only five times since 1980, and each time, it has been followed by a correction or the start of a bear market within 1-4 weeks. The exception to this was 1979-1980, when the value of the ounce increased, and relatively short-lived consolidations followed growth impulses.
Market tensions in recent days have also worked in favour of the bears in gold. Contrary to popular logic, gold rises against general risk demand only in the first days of the sell-off. If the pressure on equities becomes a trend, gold quickly catches up and overtakes the markets in its decline, only to be stopped by a monetary policy reversal.
On weekly timeframes, the RSI is above 79, an overbought area that gold has touched only five times since 1980, and each time, it has been followed by a correction or the start of a bear market within 1-4 weeks. The exception to this was 1979-1980, when the value of the ounce increased, and relatively short-lived consolidations followed growth impulses.
Market tensions in recent days have also worked in favour of the bears in gold. Contrary to popular logic, gold rises against general risk demand only in the first days of the sell-off. If the pressure on equities becomes a trend, gold quickly catches up and overtakes the markets in its decline, only to be stopped by a monetary policy reversal.
#WaveAnalysis
#USDJPY under the bullish pressure
– Likely to rise to resistance level 156.35
USDJPY currency pair under the bullish pressure after the earlier breakout of the major resistance level 151.80, former yearly high from 2022 and 2023.
The breakout of the resistance level 151.80 accelerated the C-wave of the active ABC correction (B) from the start of last year.
Given the clear multi-month uptrend and continued US dollar strength, USDJPY currency pair can be expected to rise further to the resistance level 156.35 (target price for the completion of the active C-wave).
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#USDJPY under the bullish pressure
– Likely to rise to resistance level 156.35
USDJPY currency pair under the bullish pressure after the earlier breakout of the major resistance level 151.80, former yearly high from 2022 and 2023.
The breakout of the resistance level 151.80 accelerated the C-wave of the active ABC correction (B) from the start of last year.
Given the clear multi-month uptrend and continued US dollar strength, USDJPY currency pair can be expected to rise further to the resistance level 156.35 (target price for the completion of the active C-wave).
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The #crypto market avoided sharp moves on Tuesday, remaining near $2.3 trillion.
#Bitcoin's share of the entire crypto market capitalisation exceeded 54%, maintaining its upward trend since December 2022. This is the clear impact of the Bitcoin-ETF, but we also note the diminishing enthusiasm for altcoins.
The technical picture for Bitcoin is rather worrying, as we saw no rebound after the price drop on Friday and Saturday. On the contrary, the market seems to be getting used to current prices in anticipation of a halving.
#Ethereum sold off powerfully at the end of last week from the 50-day MA. Now, the second largest cryptocurrency holds near the psychologically significant $3000 level.
The pattern of cryptocurrency behaviour this week indicates that we are more likely to be in the eye of the storm, i.e. a temporary lull between violent gusts of wind. If this prediction is correct, Bitcoin could fall towards $52-55K, and Ethereum - to $2500.
#Bitcoin's share of the entire crypto market capitalisation exceeded 54%, maintaining its upward trend since December 2022. This is the clear impact of the Bitcoin-ETF, but we also note the diminishing enthusiasm for altcoins.
The technical picture for Bitcoin is rather worrying, as we saw no rebound after the price drop on Friday and Saturday. On the contrary, the market seems to be getting used to current prices in anticipation of a halving.
#Ethereum sold off powerfully at the end of last week from the 50-day MA. Now, the second largest cryptocurrency holds near the psychologically significant $3000 level.
The pattern of cryptocurrency behaviour this week indicates that we are more likely to be in the eye of the storm, i.e. a temporary lull between violent gusts of wind. If this prediction is correct, Bitcoin could fall towards $52-55K, and Ethereum - to $2500.
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#WaveAnalysis #C
Citigroup falling inside minor impulse wave 1
Likely to fall to support level 54.80
Citigroup falling inside the sharp minor impulse wave 1 of the intermediate impulse wave (3) from the end of March.
The price earlier broke the round support level 60.00 coinciding with the support trendline of the extended up channel from and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from February.
Given the strength of the active impulse wave 1, Citigroup can be expected to fall further to the next support level 54.80 (former support from February).
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Citigroup falling inside minor impulse wave 1
Likely to fall to support level 54.80
Citigroup falling inside the sharp minor impulse wave 1 of the intermediate impulse wave (3) from the end of March.
The price earlier broke the round support level 60.00 coinciding with the support trendline of the extended up channel from and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from February.
Given the strength of the active impulse wave 1, Citigroup can be expected to fall further to the next support level 54.80 (former support from February).
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The dollar pauses after a climb
The US dollar is losing 0.2% since the start of the day on Wednesday against a basket of major currencies, signalling traders' eagerness to lock in some profits after a 2.5% rally over the previous seven days.
Interestingly, dollar fatigue was evident shortly after Powell's admission that inflation was on a higher trajectory than the central bank expected. The Fed is so far following market expectations, which have changed impressively since 8 March, when a pro-inflationary jobs report turned the dollar higher. The dollar's upward momentum got a fresh boost after last week's inflation report, as it was "bought on rumours" of a change in Fed sentiment. In this context, Powell's words are seen as "selling the fact".
The US dollar is losing 0.2% since the start of the day on Wednesday against a basket of major currencies, signalling traders' eagerness to lock in some profits after a 2.5% rally over the previous seven days.
Interestingly, dollar fatigue was evident shortly after Powell's admission that inflation was on a higher trajectory than the central bank expected. The Fed is so far following market expectations, which have changed impressively since 8 March, when a pro-inflationary jobs report turned the dollar higher. The dollar's upward momentum got a fresh boost after last week's inflation report, as it was "bought on rumours" of a change in Fed sentiment. In this context, Powell's words are seen as "selling the fact".
Technically, #DXY signs of fatigue are rising near the October reversal area. On the daily timeframes, the RSI has entered the overbought territory. This was the case just before the start of the September 2022 and 2023 corrections, albeit noticeably below the price peak.
The overbought dollar accumulated from the gains since early March sets up a period of dollar consolidation from the current 106.0 to 104.5-105.0. This would be a classic correction, opening the way for a new wave of DXY growth to the 110 or even 115 area. But this will be a story with a different information narrative, as the current driver is exhausted.
A reversal after some fluctuations is possible, as was the case in October last year. The chances of such a scenario will increase if the global economy stays on the path of moderate growth, which will reduce the difference between the dynamics of the US economy and the rest of the developed world.
The overbought dollar accumulated from the gains since early March sets up a period of dollar consolidation from the current 106.0 to 104.5-105.0. This would be a classic correction, opening the way for a new wave of DXY growth to the 110 or even 115 area. But this will be a story with a different information narrative, as the current driver is exhausted.
A reversal after some fluctuations is possible, as was the case in October last year. The chances of such a scenario will increase if the global economy stays on the path of moderate growth, which will reduce the difference between the dynamics of the US economy and the rest of the developed world.
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#WaveAnalysis
#EURUSD reversed from resistance level 1.0685
Likely to fall to support level 1.0600
EURUSD currency pair recently reversed down from the resistance level 1.0685, former multi-month support from February, acting as the support after it was broken.
The downward reversal from this resistance level 1.0685 continues the active minor impulse wave 3 of the higher impulse wave (3) from December.
Given the multi-month downtrend, EURUSD can be expected to fall further to the next round support level 1.0600.
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#EURUSD reversed from resistance level 1.0685
Likely to fall to support level 1.0600
EURUSD currency pair recently reversed down from the resistance level 1.0685, former multi-month support from February, acting as the support after it was broken.
The downward reversal from this resistance level 1.0685 continues the active minor impulse wave 3 of the higher impulse wave (3) from December.
Given the multi-month downtrend, EURUSD can be expected to fall further to the next round support level 1.0600.
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The #crypto market was relatively quick to digest the sell-off that gripped markets following Israel's attack on Iran. The cap rose 4.7% in 24 hours to $2.33 trillion, but this is down from $2.62 trillion seven days earlier.
Halving and strong technical support are supporting a 'buy on dips' pattern in Bitcoin, and this is affecting the rest of the cryptocurrencies. The halving will take place on Saturday night. The technical picture now suggests that BTCUSD is successfully holding within a corrective pattern, finding support on dips to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the rally from the January lows.
However, bullish positions are not as strong as they were earlier in the month, with the 50-day moving average acting as resistance. A strong rally above $67 will be needed to overcome this bearish signal.
Halving and strong technical support are supporting a 'buy on dips' pattern in Bitcoin, and this is affecting the rest of the cryptocurrencies. The halving will take place on Saturday night. The technical picture now suggests that BTCUSD is successfully holding within a corrective pattern, finding support on dips to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the rally from the January lows.
However, bullish positions are not as strong as they were earlier in the month, with the 50-day moving average acting as resistance. A strong rally above $67 will be needed to overcome this bearish signal.
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#WaveAnalysis
#GBPUSD broke key support level 1.2535
– Likely to fall to support level 1.2335
GBPUSD currency pair continues to fall strongly after breaking the key support level 1.2535, which has been steadily reversing the price from December.
The breakout of the support level 1.2535 coincided with true breakout of the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous upward ABC correction (B) from last October .
Given the strong bearish sterling sentiment seen across the FX markets today, GBPUSD currency pair can be expected to fall further to the next support level 1.2335, target for the completion of the active impulse wave 3.
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#GBPUSD broke key support level 1.2535
– Likely to fall to support level 1.2335
GBPUSD currency pair continues to fall strongly after breaking the key support level 1.2535, which has been steadily reversing the price from December.
The breakout of the support level 1.2535 coincided with true breakout of the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous upward ABC correction (B) from last October .
Given the strong bearish sterling sentiment seen across the FX markets today, GBPUSD currency pair can be expected to fall further to the next support level 1.2335, target for the completion of the active impulse wave 3.
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📉Gold retreats 1.5% to $2360. Silver down 3.4% to $27.7 ⬇️ 👉Will the decline continue?
Anonymous Poll
55%
BUY 📈
45%
SELL 📉
Bitcoin recovers, altcoins humbly follow
The #crypto market is moving upwards, encouraged by Bitcoin's positive momentum. Total cryptocurrency cap reached $2.44 trillion, up 1.6% in 24 hours and 0.8% in seven days.
#Bitcoin added 1.9% in 24 hours to $66.4K, gradually adding since last Thursday. The price hasn't moved much in recent days, balancing the positivity from the halving and the negativity from the Nasdaq index's decline.
Bitcoin is sticking to a classic upside pattern with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the last rally. However, it's worth remaining cautious until the price breaks above the 50-day moving average, which is now at $67.4K.
Altcoins are repeating the positive dynamics of the first cryptocurrency, adding since the end of last week. Still, they fell harder a fortnight ago and are recovering very sluggishly so far. As a result, the share of Bitcoin in total cap reached a three-year high near 55%.
The #crypto market is moving upwards, encouraged by Bitcoin's positive momentum. Total cryptocurrency cap reached $2.44 trillion, up 1.6% in 24 hours and 0.8% in seven days.
#Bitcoin added 1.9% in 24 hours to $66.4K, gradually adding since last Thursday. The price hasn't moved much in recent days, balancing the positivity from the halving and the negativity from the Nasdaq index's decline.
Bitcoin is sticking to a classic upside pattern with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the last rally. However, it's worth remaining cautious until the price breaks above the 50-day moving average, which is now at $67.4K.
Altcoins are repeating the positive dynamics of the first cryptocurrency, adding since the end of last week. Still, they fell harder a fortnight ago and are recovering very sluggishly so far. As a result, the share of Bitcoin in total cap reached a three-year high near 55%.
Oil Poised for Breakout: Key Support Levels Tested
Oil prices have retreated to their lowest levels since late March, approaching a critical support level.
WTI barrels dipped to $80.60 early on Monday. The price found support at the $80.0-$80.50 zone a month ago before accelerating higher and breaking through the resistance of the ascending channel. Last week's sell-off pushed the price back into this channel.
The macroeconomic backdrop is stacked against bulls: US oil inventories are rising, the number of oil rigs is higher than at any time since September, and the IMF is forecasting an increase in OPEC+ quotas from mid-year. The dollar is strengthening, and stock indexes are falling, adding pressure to the price.
Oil prices have retreated to their lowest levels since late March, approaching a critical support level.
WTI barrels dipped to $80.60 early on Monday. The price found support at the $80.0-$80.50 zone a month ago before accelerating higher and breaking through the resistance of the ascending channel. Last week's sell-off pushed the price back into this channel.
The macroeconomic backdrop is stacked against bulls: US oil inventories are rising, the number of oil rigs is higher than at any time since September, and the IMF is forecasting an increase in OPEC+ quotas from mid-year. The dollar is strengthening, and stock indexes are falling, adding pressure to the price.
The price per barrel is testing the 50-day moving average (currently at $80.60). A close above it in January sparked a three-month rally.
Through $79.60, just $1 below, lies the 200-day moving average. A break below it could signal a shift in the long-term trend. In the past two years, there has been a surge in volatility after touching the 200-day average: the market either broke decisively above it or bounced sharply off it.
These days, the 200-day moving average coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the December lows to the April peak. A break below would suggest a resumption of the long-term downtrend, bringing prices back to cycle lows around $70. The ability to hold above the 200-day moving average would suggest a Fibonacci extension with a potential upside target near $100.
Thus, the oil price action in the coming days deserves attention from both traders (promising volatility) and investors, as it will determine the long-term trend.
Through $79.60, just $1 below, lies the 200-day moving average. A break below it could signal a shift in the long-term trend. In the past two years, there has been a surge in volatility after touching the 200-day average: the market either broke decisively above it or bounced sharply off it.
These days, the 200-day moving average coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the December lows to the April peak. A break below would suggest a resumption of the long-term downtrend, bringing prices back to cycle lows around $70. The ability to hold above the 200-day moving average would suggest a Fibonacci extension with a potential upside target near $100.
Thus, the oil price action in the coming days deserves attention from both traders (promising volatility) and investors, as it will determine the long-term trend.
#WaveAnalysis #INTC
Intel broke support zone
Likely to fall to support level 32.50
Intel continues to fall inside the sharp minor impulse wave 1, which previously broke the support zone lying at the intersection of the two daily channels from December and February of 2023.
The active impulse wave 1 belongs to the higher order impulse wave (3) from the start of March .
Give the earlier breakout of the strong support at 34.95 (top of the upward gap from October), Intel can be expected to fall further to the next support level 32.50, which has been reversing the price from August.
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Intel broke support zone
Likely to fall to support level 32.50
Intel continues to fall inside the sharp minor impulse wave 1, which previously broke the support zone lying at the intersection of the two daily channels from December and February of 2023.
The active impulse wave 1 belongs to the higher order impulse wave (3) from the start of March .
Give the earlier breakout of the strong support at 34.95 (top of the upward gap from October), Intel can be expected to fall further to the next support level 32.50, which has been reversing the price from August.
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The capitalisation of the #crypto market over the past 24 hours has added only 0.15% to $2.44 trillion. Crypto sentiment indices remain in the ‘greed’ territory, scoring 71 points, compared to 73 points the day before.
#Bitcoin added about a quarter of a percent during the day, reaching $66.5K. Early on Tuesday morning, the price briefly exceeded $67.1K, touching the 50-day MA, but then retreated. It seems that this time, the crypto market is waiting for a signal from stock indices rather than giving such a signal about risk appetite. The calm may be illusory and quickly come to an end. We reiterate that consolidation above $67.1K could open the way to the $72-74K area. A reversal to the downside could end with a quick rollback to the $60K area.
According to CoinShares, investments in crypto funds over the past week have decreased by $206 million after an outflow of $126 million the previous week. Investments in Bitcoin decreased by $192 million, in Ethereum - by $34 million, in Solana - by $0.3 million.
#Bitcoin added about a quarter of a percent during the day, reaching $66.5K. Early on Tuesday morning, the price briefly exceeded $67.1K, touching the 50-day MA, but then retreated. It seems that this time, the crypto market is waiting for a signal from stock indices rather than giving such a signal about risk appetite. The calm may be illusory and quickly come to an end. We reiterate that consolidation above $67.1K could open the way to the $72-74K area. A reversal to the downside could end with a quick rollback to the $60K area.
According to CoinShares, investments in crypto funds over the past week have decreased by $206 million after an outflow of $126 million the previous week. Investments in Bitcoin decreased by $192 million, in Ethereum - by $34 million, in Solana - by $0.3 million.
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