The EURUSD dynamics during this week emphasise the serious bearish bias in the pair. The pair crossed the 50- and 200-day moving averages in a sharp move on Wednesday and closed well below them. Neither on Thursday nor on Friday did the Euro make any noticeable attempts to rebound.
Moreover, we don't even see the typical Friday thrust of short-term profit-taking with an ongoing sell-off. EURUSD slid to 1.0650, having fallen out of its trading range since late December.
EURUSD has been receiving support on dips towards 1.05 in 2023, spending only a few days below that level. The pair will likely test the strength of this support again very soon, and the accumulating difference in Fed and ECB policy reinforces the chances that the pair will not stop there this time.
If indeed EURUSD falls below 1.05 in April, the pair could fall to the next leg, finding support only near 0.95.
Moreover, we don't even see the typical Friday thrust of short-term profit-taking with an ongoing sell-off. EURUSD slid to 1.0650, having fallen out of its trading range since late December.
EURUSD has been receiving support on dips towards 1.05 in 2023, spending only a few days below that level. The pair will likely test the strength of this support again very soon, and the accumulating difference in Fed and ECB policy reinforces the chances that the pair will not stop there this time.
If indeed EURUSD falls below 1.05 in April, the pair could fall to the next leg, finding support only near 0.95.
#WaveAnalysis
#USDCAD broke key resistance level 1.3625
Likely to rise to resistance level 1.3860
USDCAD rising strongly after the earlier breakout of the key resistance level 1.3625 (which has been reversing the price from December) intersecting with the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the downward ABC correction (2) from November.
The breakout of the resistance level 1.3625 coincided with the breakout of the daily up channel from January.
USDCAD can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 1.3860 (former multi-month high from October, and the target for the completion of the active impulse iii).
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#USDCAD broke key resistance level 1.3625
Likely to rise to resistance level 1.3860
USDCAD rising strongly after the earlier breakout of the key resistance level 1.3625 (which has been reversing the price from December) intersecting with the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the downward ABC correction (2) from November.
The breakout of the resistance level 1.3625 coincided with the breakout of the daily up channel from January.
USDCAD can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 1.3860 (former multi-month high from October, and the target for the completion of the active impulse iii).
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#WaveAnalysis
#GBPAUD reversed from support level 1.918
Likely to rise to resistance level 1.9360
GBPAUD recently reversed up from the key support level 1.918 (which has been reversing the price from January).
The support level 1.918 was strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band and by the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from December.
GBPAUD can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 1.9360 (middle of the sideways price range inside which the pair has been moving from January).
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#GBPAUD reversed from support level 1.918
Likely to rise to resistance level 1.9360
GBPAUD recently reversed up from the key support level 1.918 (which has been reversing the price from January).
The support level 1.918 was strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band and by the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from December.
GBPAUD can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 1.9360 (middle of the sideways price range inside which the pair has been moving from January).
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It was a non-boring weekend for the #crypto market. Market sentiment swung sharply towards buying the dollar and selling stocks, gold, and cryptos on Friday afternoon. Also operating over the weekend, the crypto market accelerated its decline on Saturday, with capitalisation falling to $2.2 trillion (-18% from Monday's peak) but began to recover on Sunday and has risen to $2.42 trillion (-7% in seven days) at the time of writing.
Bitcoin's weekly decline was the largest in eight months and, in dollar terms, the largest on record since the November 2022 FTX crash. Following Bitcoin, other digital assets collapsed as well. Many of the largest altcoins lost about a third of their value over Friday and Saturday.
Bitcoin's weekly decline was the largest in eight months and, in dollar terms, the largest on record since the November 2022 FTX crash. Following Bitcoin, other digital assets collapsed as well. Many of the largest altcoins lost about a third of their value over Friday and Saturday.
#Bitcoin dipped below $60K over the weekend, but a recovery on Sunday and at the start of the day on Monday brought the price back up to $66.2K. The weekend's failure made the technical picture more contradictory. On the bullish side, BTCUSD met strong buying on the decline to the 61.8% retracement level from the rise from the lows at the beginning of the year to the peaks in March. It's a classic correction that often clears the way to the upside.
Bears, on the other hand, may cite a sharp dip below the 50-day moving average, which could break the multi-month uptrend. But we see this dip as a repeat of the January correction - necessary to keep buyers interested and to shake weak hands out of the market.
Bears, on the other hand, may cite a sharp dip below the 50-day moving average, which could break the multi-month uptrend. But we see this dip as a repeat of the January correction - necessary to keep buyers interested and to shake weak hands out of the market.
Oil is losing more than 1% on Monday, below $84 a barrel for WTI and below $89 for Brent after Friday's rollercoaster, when prices peaked above $87 and $91.6, respectively. The drivers were geopolitics, where fears of an escalation of the conflict between Israel and Palestine fueled the growth. The decline was helped by the relatively conciliatory rhetoric of the US and the strengthening of the dollar.
A double top - a reversal technical pattern - was recorded on the oil charts. The RSI exit from the overbought zone on daily timeframes also supports the idea of further price decrease. In addition, a short-term downward trend can be identified from the fifth of April.
The strengthening of the dollar due to the shift in expectations for the key Fed rate has been visibly eating away at risk appetite since the beginning of April, leaving oil no escape from this trend.
Nevertheless, there are still doubts that we are seeing the start of a downtrend rather than short-term profit-taking.
A double top - a reversal technical pattern - was recorded on the oil charts. The RSI exit from the overbought zone on daily timeframes also supports the idea of further price decrease. In addition, a short-term downward trend can be identified from the fifth of April.
The strengthening of the dollar due to the shift in expectations for the key Fed rate has been visibly eating away at risk appetite since the beginning of April, leaving oil no escape from this trend.
Nevertheless, there are still doubts that we are seeing the start of a downtrend rather than short-term profit-taking.
Firstly, we there was an acceleration at the end of March, and the current pullback so far fits into the uptrend. It is worth watching closely the price dynamics near the previous peak ($82.50-83.0) and the previous local bottom ($80.50). A rebound from one of these levels will reinforce the idea of a bull market for oil.
Secondly, the supply and demand balance is on the bulls' side. Economic growth in Europe is still gaining momentum, America is not slowing down, and China is in the stimulus phase. Oil supply is in no hurry to expand despite the recent price increase. The US has been producing at a rate of 13.1M B/D for the past five weeks, and the number of oil rigs is just over 500, de facto stagnating so far this year.
Simply put, we're sticking with the idea for now that WTI crude won't easily fall below $80 in the coming days. The chances are much higher that it will find buyer support somewhere between $80.50 and $82.5 on a combination of geopolitics, strong demand and stagnant production.
Secondly, the supply and demand balance is on the bulls' side. Economic growth in Europe is still gaining momentum, America is not slowing down, and China is in the stimulus phase. Oil supply is in no hurry to expand despite the recent price increase. The US has been producing at a rate of 13.1M B/D for the past five weeks, and the number of oil rigs is just over 500, de facto stagnating so far this year.
Simply put, we're sticking with the idea for now that WTI crude won't easily fall below $80 in the coming days. The chances are much higher that it will find buyer support somewhere between $80.50 and $82.5 on a combination of geopolitics, strong demand and stagnant production.
US retail sales simultaneously support stocks and the dollar
US retail sales rose 0.7% in March after a 0.9% jump (revised from 0.6%) in February. An increase of 0.4% was expected. Such strong data reverses the pattern of last month when February's growth did not outweigh January's dip. By last year, retail sales in terms of money rose 4.1%, outpacing inflation of 3.5% y/y.
Retail sales excluding autos rose 1.1%, also comfortably to a record high in money. Meanwhile, purchases of fuel and building materials remain in a downtrend from the second half of 2022.
Strong retail sales growth further placates the doves at the Fed, helping to dampen further the chances of a rate cut in the coming months. At the same time, strong selling coupled with a relatively good start to the reporting season is positive for the stock market, helping the S&P500 and Nasdaq100 bounce off their 50-day moving averages, leaving them within upward trends.
US retail sales rose 0.7% in March after a 0.9% jump (revised from 0.6%) in February. An increase of 0.4% was expected. Such strong data reverses the pattern of last month when February's growth did not outweigh January's dip. By last year, retail sales in terms of money rose 4.1%, outpacing inflation of 3.5% y/y.
Retail sales excluding autos rose 1.1%, also comfortably to a record high in money. Meanwhile, purchases of fuel and building materials remain in a downtrend from the second half of 2022.
Strong retail sales growth further placates the doves at the Fed, helping to dampen further the chances of a rate cut in the coming months. At the same time, strong selling coupled with a relatively good start to the reporting season is positive for the stock market, helping the S&P500 and Nasdaq100 bounce off their 50-day moving averages, leaving them within upward trends.
#WaveAnalysis #SPX
S&P 500 falling inside sharp C-wave
– Likely to fall to support level 5000.00
S&P 500 index continues to fall inside the sharp c-wave of the minor ABC correction ii from the end of last month.
The price earlier broke the support levels 5100.00 and 5140.00, which strengthened the bearish pressure on these index .
Given the worsening sentiment seen across the USA equity, S&P 500 index can be expected to fall further to the next round support level 5000.00.
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S&P 500 falling inside sharp C-wave
– Likely to fall to support level 5000.00
S&P 500 index continues to fall inside the sharp c-wave of the minor ABC correction ii from the end of last month.
The price earlier broke the support levels 5100.00 and 5140.00, which strengthened the bearish pressure on these index .
Given the worsening sentiment seen across the USA equity, S&P 500 index can be expected to fall further to the next round support level 5000.00.
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#WaveAnalysis
#EURUSD broke support level 1.0730
Likely to fall to support level 1.0570
EURUSD currency pair fall after the earlier breakout of the key support level 1.0730 (which has been reversing the price from December) intersecting with the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the ABC correction (2) from October.
The breakout of the support level 1.0730 accelerated the iii-wave of the active impulse waves 3 and (3) .
Given the continuing bullish USD sentiment, EURUSD can be expected to fall further to the next support level 1.0570.
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#EURUSD broke support level 1.0730
Likely to fall to support level 1.0570
EURUSD currency pair fall after the earlier breakout of the key support level 1.0730 (which has been reversing the price from December) intersecting with the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the ABC correction (2) from October.
The breakout of the support level 1.0730 accelerated the iii-wave of the active impulse waves 3 and (3) .
Given the continuing bullish USD sentiment, EURUSD can be expected to fall further to the next support level 1.0570.
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The sell-off in US stock markets initial positivity. As a result, the #crypto market cap fell 5.4% in 24 hours to 2.29 trillion, back near the weekend lows. The market is hovering near the lows of March. This is a key moment in choosing the market’s direction for the coming weeks. A bounce out of this area will allow for the expectation of an early recovery to the recent highs. A dip below would likely trigger a broader liquidation of positions.
#Bitcoin has returned to the lows of the past 7 weeks, coinciding with the 61.8% retracement of the rally from the January lows. Bitcoin is choosing between a loosely controlled deepening of the decline or a reversal to growth. On the negative side, the 50-day MA acted as resistance on Monday.
According to CoinShares, crypto fund investments fell by $126 million last week after inflows of $646 million a week earlier. Bitcoin investments decreased by $110 million, Ethereum - by $29 million, and Solana - by $4 million.
#Bitcoin has returned to the lows of the past 7 weeks, coinciding with the 61.8% retracement of the rally from the January lows. Bitcoin is choosing between a loosely controlled deepening of the decline or a reversal to growth. On the negative side, the 50-day MA acted as resistance on Monday.
According to CoinShares, crypto fund investments fell by $126 million last week after inflows of $646 million a week earlier. Bitcoin investments decreased by $110 million, Ethereum - by $29 million, and Solana - by $4 million.
Gold has been behaving erratically correlated with global risk appetite in recent days.
On Friday, the price set an all-time high above $2430, losing $100 before the end of that day, nullifying the most furious final part of the rally within four hours. The final sell-off was in unison with the markets' fall. But on Monday, the pressure in the stock markets intensified again, and gold moved higher.
Neither geopolitics nor fear of interest rate moves explain these shifts. Gold seems to be living its own world, in which geopolitics is used as a convenient explanation for the rise, and the rise of the dollar is used as an ex post facto explanation for the decline.
In our view, the price run-up on Thursday and Friday morning was so significant because it occurred in thin air territory after many days of making new highs and caught a wave of stop orders above $2400.
The impressive profit-taking at the end of the day on Friday had every chance of reversing the uptrend, which most often happens.
On Friday, the price set an all-time high above $2430, losing $100 before the end of that day, nullifying the most furious final part of the rally within four hours. The final sell-off was in unison with the markets' fall. But on Monday, the pressure in the stock markets intensified again, and gold moved higher.
Neither geopolitics nor fear of interest rate moves explain these shifts. Gold seems to be living its own world, in which geopolitics is used as a convenient explanation for the rise, and the rise of the dollar is used as an ex post facto explanation for the decline.
In our view, the price run-up on Thursday and Friday morning was so significant because it occurred in thin air territory after many days of making new highs and caught a wave of stop orders above $2400.
The impressive profit-taking at the end of the day on Friday had every chance of reversing the uptrend, which most often happens.
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On the daily timeframes, the RSI index rolled back to 73, which is on the border with the overbought area, and recorded two peaks near 85 in March and April. A further pullback to the area below 70 would be a harbinger of a broad correction.
On weekly timeframes, the RSI is above 79, an overbought area that gold has touched only five times since 1980, and each time, it has been followed by a correction or the start of a bear market within 1-4 weeks. The exception to this was 1979-1980, when the value of the ounce increased, and relatively short-lived consolidations followed growth impulses.
Market tensions in recent days have also worked in favour of the bears in gold. Contrary to popular logic, gold rises against general risk demand only in the first days of the sell-off. If the pressure on equities becomes a trend, gold quickly catches up and overtakes the markets in its decline, only to be stopped by a monetary policy reversal.
On weekly timeframes, the RSI is above 79, an overbought area that gold has touched only five times since 1980, and each time, it has been followed by a correction or the start of a bear market within 1-4 weeks. The exception to this was 1979-1980, when the value of the ounce increased, and relatively short-lived consolidations followed growth impulses.
Market tensions in recent days have also worked in favour of the bears in gold. Contrary to popular logic, gold rises against general risk demand only in the first days of the sell-off. If the pressure on equities becomes a trend, gold quickly catches up and overtakes the markets in its decline, only to be stopped by a monetary policy reversal.
#WaveAnalysis
#USDJPY under the bullish pressure
– Likely to rise to resistance level 156.35
USDJPY currency pair under the bullish pressure after the earlier breakout of the major resistance level 151.80, former yearly high from 2022 and 2023.
The breakout of the resistance level 151.80 accelerated the C-wave of the active ABC correction (B) from the start of last year.
Given the clear multi-month uptrend and continued US dollar strength, USDJPY currency pair can be expected to rise further to the resistance level 156.35 (target price for the completion of the active C-wave).
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#USDJPY under the bullish pressure
– Likely to rise to resistance level 156.35
USDJPY currency pair under the bullish pressure after the earlier breakout of the major resistance level 151.80, former yearly high from 2022 and 2023.
The breakout of the resistance level 151.80 accelerated the C-wave of the active ABC correction (B) from the start of last year.
Given the clear multi-month uptrend and continued US dollar strength, USDJPY currency pair can be expected to rise further to the resistance level 156.35 (target price for the completion of the active C-wave).
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The #crypto market avoided sharp moves on Tuesday, remaining near $2.3 trillion.
#Bitcoin's share of the entire crypto market capitalisation exceeded 54%, maintaining its upward trend since December 2022. This is the clear impact of the Bitcoin-ETF, but we also note the diminishing enthusiasm for altcoins.
The technical picture for Bitcoin is rather worrying, as we saw no rebound after the price drop on Friday and Saturday. On the contrary, the market seems to be getting used to current prices in anticipation of a halving.
#Ethereum sold off powerfully at the end of last week from the 50-day MA. Now, the second largest cryptocurrency holds near the psychologically significant $3000 level.
The pattern of cryptocurrency behaviour this week indicates that we are more likely to be in the eye of the storm, i.e. a temporary lull between violent gusts of wind. If this prediction is correct, Bitcoin could fall towards $52-55K, and Ethereum - to $2500.
#Bitcoin's share of the entire crypto market capitalisation exceeded 54%, maintaining its upward trend since December 2022. This is the clear impact of the Bitcoin-ETF, but we also note the diminishing enthusiasm for altcoins.
The technical picture for Bitcoin is rather worrying, as we saw no rebound after the price drop on Friday and Saturday. On the contrary, the market seems to be getting used to current prices in anticipation of a halving.
#Ethereum sold off powerfully at the end of last week from the 50-day MA. Now, the second largest cryptocurrency holds near the psychologically significant $3000 level.
The pattern of cryptocurrency behaviour this week indicates that we are more likely to be in the eye of the storm, i.e. a temporary lull between violent gusts of wind. If this prediction is correct, Bitcoin could fall towards $52-55K, and Ethereum - to $2500.
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#WaveAnalysis #C
Citigroup falling inside minor impulse wave 1
Likely to fall to support level 54.80
Citigroup falling inside the sharp minor impulse wave 1 of the intermediate impulse wave (3) from the end of March.
The price earlier broke the round support level 60.00 coinciding with the support trendline of the extended up channel from and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from February.
Given the strength of the active impulse wave 1, Citigroup can be expected to fall further to the next support level 54.80 (former support from February).
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Citigroup falling inside minor impulse wave 1
Likely to fall to support level 54.80
Citigroup falling inside the sharp minor impulse wave 1 of the intermediate impulse wave (3) from the end of March.
The price earlier broke the round support level 60.00 coinciding with the support trendline of the extended up channel from and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from February.
Given the strength of the active impulse wave 1, Citigroup can be expected to fall further to the next support level 54.80 (former support from February).
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The dollar pauses after a climb
The US dollar is losing 0.2% since the start of the day on Wednesday against a basket of major currencies, signalling traders' eagerness to lock in some profits after a 2.5% rally over the previous seven days.
Interestingly, dollar fatigue was evident shortly after Powell's admission that inflation was on a higher trajectory than the central bank expected. The Fed is so far following market expectations, which have changed impressively since 8 March, when a pro-inflationary jobs report turned the dollar higher. The dollar's upward momentum got a fresh boost after last week's inflation report, as it was "bought on rumours" of a change in Fed sentiment. In this context, Powell's words are seen as "selling the fact".
The US dollar is losing 0.2% since the start of the day on Wednesday against a basket of major currencies, signalling traders' eagerness to lock in some profits after a 2.5% rally over the previous seven days.
Interestingly, dollar fatigue was evident shortly after Powell's admission that inflation was on a higher trajectory than the central bank expected. The Fed is so far following market expectations, which have changed impressively since 8 March, when a pro-inflationary jobs report turned the dollar higher. The dollar's upward momentum got a fresh boost after last week's inflation report, as it was "bought on rumours" of a change in Fed sentiment. In this context, Powell's words are seen as "selling the fact".
Technically, #DXY signs of fatigue are rising near the October reversal area. On the daily timeframes, the RSI has entered the overbought territory. This was the case just before the start of the September 2022 and 2023 corrections, albeit noticeably below the price peak.
The overbought dollar accumulated from the gains since early March sets up a period of dollar consolidation from the current 106.0 to 104.5-105.0. This would be a classic correction, opening the way for a new wave of DXY growth to the 110 or even 115 area. But this will be a story with a different information narrative, as the current driver is exhausted.
A reversal after some fluctuations is possible, as was the case in October last year. The chances of such a scenario will increase if the global economy stays on the path of moderate growth, which will reduce the difference between the dynamics of the US economy and the rest of the developed world.
The overbought dollar accumulated from the gains since early March sets up a period of dollar consolidation from the current 106.0 to 104.5-105.0. This would be a classic correction, opening the way for a new wave of DXY growth to the 110 or even 115 area. But this will be a story with a different information narrative, as the current driver is exhausted.
A reversal after some fluctuations is possible, as was the case in October last year. The chances of such a scenario will increase if the global economy stays on the path of moderate growth, which will reduce the difference between the dynamics of the US economy and the rest of the developed world.
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#WaveAnalysis
#EURUSD reversed from resistance level 1.0685
Likely to fall to support level 1.0600
EURUSD currency pair recently reversed down from the resistance level 1.0685, former multi-month support from February, acting as the support after it was broken.
The downward reversal from this resistance level 1.0685 continues the active minor impulse wave 3 of the higher impulse wave (3) from December.
Given the multi-month downtrend, EURUSD can be expected to fall further to the next round support level 1.0600.
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#EURUSD reversed from resistance level 1.0685
Likely to fall to support level 1.0600
EURUSD currency pair recently reversed down from the resistance level 1.0685, former multi-month support from February, acting as the support after it was broken.
The downward reversal from this resistance level 1.0685 continues the active minor impulse wave 3 of the higher impulse wave (3) from December.
Given the multi-month downtrend, EURUSD can be expected to fall further to the next round support level 1.0600.
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