#WaveAnalysis
Alcoa (#AA) broke resistance level 32.00
Likely to rise to resistance level 35.00
Alcoa recently broke the resistance level 32.00, which has been reversing the price from the start of January – which accelerated the active impulse wave C.
The breakout of the resistance level 32.00 was preceded by the breakout of the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the downward correction from December.
Alcoa can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 35.00 (former monthly high from December and the target for the completion of the active impulse wave C).
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Alcoa (#AA) broke resistance level 32.00
Likely to rise to resistance level 35.00
Alcoa recently broke the resistance level 32.00, which has been reversing the price from the start of January – which accelerated the active impulse wave C.
The breakout of the resistance level 32.00 was preceded by the breakout of the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the downward correction from December.
Alcoa can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 35.00 (former monthly high from December and the target for the completion of the active impulse wave C).
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The #crypto market cap fell to $2.63 trillion - the bottom of the range for the week. The top coins have moved without momentum over the past 24 hours, with losses for BTC (-0.9%), Ethereum (-1.9%) and BNB (-3%), but gains for Solana (1.4%), Dogecoin (+0.5%) and Toncoin (+2%).
#Bitcoin was once again subject to an intensified sell-off after briefly moving above $71.5K. At the start of active trading in Europe, BTCUSD fell below $69K.
We still see the dips to just below $69K as a post-growth consolidation - an important stage before a new advance. However, we have already seen several false starts, so it is better to wait for confirmation that Bitcoin has completed the consolidation.
Bitcoin rose 15.4% in March to $70.9K. It has risen in six out of the last seven months. April is considered one of the best months for the top cryptocurrency. Over the past 13 years, Bitcoin has ended the year higher nine times. The average rise has been 21.6%, while the average fall has been 7%.
#Bitcoin was once again subject to an intensified sell-off after briefly moving above $71.5K. At the start of active trading in Europe, BTCUSD fell below $69K.
We still see the dips to just below $69K as a post-growth consolidation - an important stage before a new advance. However, we have already seen several false starts, so it is better to wait for confirmation that Bitcoin has completed the consolidation.
Bitcoin rose 15.4% in March to $70.9K. It has risen in six out of the last seven months. April is considered one of the best months for the top cryptocurrency. Over the past 13 years, Bitcoin has ended the year higher nine times. The average rise has been 21.6%, while the average fall has been 7%.
The British Pound has spent the past week in a tight 500 pip range but has mostly traded around the 1.2620 level. Attempts by the bears to send the #GBPUSD into a downtrend like the EURUSD have so far failed, with the pair finding buyers on dips towards the 200-day moving average (now at 1.2590) since last November. It looks more like a temporary stalemate against the backdrop of the euro, franc and yen downtrends and the Canadian dollar's unimpressive momentum.
In terms of moving averages, the uptrend was broken in the early days of February with a sharp dip below the 50-day MA. However, the dip below the longer-term 200-day MA lasted only a few hours. There was even a false attempt to bounce back from it in early March. But it was more of a false breakout, and the pressure on sterling quickly returned.
In terms of moving averages, the uptrend was broken in the early days of February with a sharp dip below the 50-day MA. However, the dip below the longer-term 200-day MA lasted only a few hours. There was even a false attempt to bounce back from it in early March. But it was more of a false breakout, and the pressure on sterling quickly returned.
The market driver since the beginning of the year has been the comparison of monetary policy between the US and other developed countries. Last year ended with expectations of four or five Fed rate cuts, with the first in March; now, the probability of more than three cuts is estimated at 33%, starting in June (68% probability). Expectations for the Bank of England have not changed so dramatically. The first cut is still expected around the middle of the year, and for the whole year, 2-3 cuts are expected, down from 3-4 at the end of December.
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A consolidation below the 200-day MA looks more like a matter of "when" than "if", as the dollar tends to strengthen against its major peers. The Pound is in better shape than most of the major currencies, given the less dovish outlook for monetary policy. However, it can rarely swim against the tide for long. Europe has shown time and again that it can move quickly: the Bank of England started raising rates five months before the Fed, and the Swiss National Bank unexpectedly started easing at the end of March.
A GBPUSD fix below 1.26 will draw attention to the pound from those following long-term trends. A break below 1.25 will be an important signal that the market has decided its direction, which will signal the taking of a psychologically important level and confirm the breakdown of support in recent months.
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A GBPUSD fix below 1.26 will draw attention to the pound from those following long-term trends. A break below 1.25 will be an important signal that the market has decided its direction, which will signal the taking of a psychologically important level and confirm the breakdown of support in recent months.
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During a relatively quiet Monday trading session, the main trend was set by China's manufacturing PMI data. The index came in at 51.1 for March, just above the expected 51.0 and the previous 50.9. On a positive note, this is the highest level of the index since February 2023, suggesting a continued recovery in manufacturing activity. Manufacturing accounts for around 30% of China's GDP, compared with around 10% in the US and 18% in Germany.
The better-than-expected data, which confirmed the upward trend in activity, supported appetite for riskier assets. In the currency market, the positive data is helping to contain the pressure on the yuan that it came under a few weeks ago. It is also positive for commodity markets, where China's consumption dynamics are an important source of volatility.
Later in the week, markets will also turn their attention to China's services PMIs on Wednesday, but the focus will be on Friday's US employment estimates for March.
The better-than-expected data, which confirmed the upward trend in activity, supported appetite for riskier assets. In the currency market, the positive data is helping to contain the pressure on the yuan that it came under a few weeks ago. It is also positive for commodity markets, where China's consumption dynamics are an important source of volatility.
Later in the week, markets will also turn their attention to China's services PMIs on Wednesday, but the focus will be on Friday's US employment estimates for March.
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#WaveAnalysis #NatGas
Natural gas reversed from multi-month support level 1.541
Likely to rise to resistance level 2.030
Natural gas recently reversed up from the multi-month support level 1.541, which reversed the price twice in the middle of 2020.
The support level 1.541 was strengthened by the lower weekly and the daily Bollinger Bands.
Given the strength of the support level 1.541 and the oversold weekly Stochastic, Natural gas can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 2.030, former yearly low from last year.
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Natural gas reversed from multi-month support level 1.541
Likely to rise to resistance level 2.030
Natural gas recently reversed up from the multi-month support level 1.541, which reversed the price twice in the middle of 2020.
The support level 1.541 was strengthened by the lower weekly and the daily Bollinger Bands.
Given the strength of the support level 1.541 and the oversold weekly Stochastic, Natural gas can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 2.030, former yearly low from last year.
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#WaveAnalysis
#EURJPY reversed from resistance level 164.30
Likely to fall to support level 162.00
EURJPY currency pair recently reversed down from the resistance level 164.30, former multi month high from the middle of November.
The resistance level 164.30 was strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band.
EURJPY currency pair can be expected to fall further to the next support level 162.00, former minor support from March.
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#EURJPY reversed from resistance level 164.30
Likely to fall to support level 162.00
EURJPY currency pair recently reversed down from the resistance level 164.30, former multi month high from the middle of November.
The resistance level 164.30 was strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band.
EURJPY currency pair can be expected to fall further to the next support level 162.00, former minor support from March.
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The #crypto market lost 4% in 24 hours, falling to a cap of $2.53 trillion. #Bitcoin (-3.7%), #Ethereum (-4.5%) and #BNB (-3.5%) are all down by the same amount. #Solana (-6.4%) and #Doge (-7.9%) are lagging the market, not to mention the systematically weak #Avalanche (-7% for the day and -17% for 7 days) and #Cardano (-4.5% for the day and -19% for 30 days).
A promising consolidation has yet to bear fruit. For Bitcoin, the bullish chart picture has not changed: we see only an extension of the consolidation after the rally from the January lows to mid-March. The next key support area is $62.8-63.0K, where the 50-day moving average and the lows of the corrective pullback in March are centred.
Ethereum has been testing the 50-day MA since the beginning of the day, which actively played the role of support in March. It has been rising steadily since the end of last year, but too much distance from it has caused corrections on more than one occasion.
A promising consolidation has yet to bear fruit. For Bitcoin, the bullish chart picture has not changed: we see only an extension of the consolidation after the rally from the January lows to mid-March. The next key support area is $62.8-63.0K, where the 50-day moving average and the lows of the corrective pullback in March are centred.
Ethereum has been testing the 50-day MA since the beginning of the day, which actively played the role of support in March. It has been rising steadily since the end of last year, but too much distance from it has caused corrections on more than one occasion.
Oil prices have been hitting five-month highs, and every trading session has been rising since 27 March. The price of a barrel of WTI reached $84.6 at the start of the day on Tuesday before retreating slightly by midday in Europe.
To some extent, oil is managing to copy gold, which has also seen a steady increase in buying since the beginning of last week. The latest rally can also be attributed to signs of acceleration in China and continued strong manufacturing data from the US, which promises energy demand.
Contrary to common logic, oil prices are rising simultaneously with the dollar despite historically having a negative correlation. But America has commonly been the largest energy importer, consuming a quarter of all Crude in the early 2000s. In recent years, however, the US has become a net Crude exporter. Last year, it reclaimed the title of largest oil producer. Recently, it became the largest exporter of LNG, a formidable competitor to the OPEC+ countries.
To some extent, oil is managing to copy gold, which has also seen a steady increase in buying since the beginning of last week. The latest rally can also be attributed to signs of acceleration in China and continued strong manufacturing data from the US, which promises energy demand.
Contrary to common logic, oil prices are rising simultaneously with the dollar despite historically having a negative correlation. But America has commonly been the largest energy importer, consuming a quarter of all Crude in the early 2000s. In recent years, however, the US has become a net Crude exporter. Last year, it reclaimed the title of largest oil producer. Recently, it became the largest exporter of LNG, a formidable competitor to the OPEC+ countries.
Meanwhile, the states have maintained production at 13.1 million bpd since October last year. Drilling activity has also stagnated for all these months, barring any supply spikes in the coming quarters.
All of this argues for further price growth and methodical, albeit small, additions to the strategic reserve.
The price chart clearly shows the acceleration in growth since the second half of March, when the previous upper boundary of the rising channel turned into support last week. We are also watching for the formation of a "golden cross", which could attract additional speculative buying in the coming days.
From a technical point of view, the only barrier for oil is the area of previous highs at $92.5. Approaching this area may require significant profit-taking and prolonged consolidation before the next breakout, but success is by no means guaranteed.
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All of this argues for further price growth and methodical, albeit small, additions to the strategic reserve.
The price chart clearly shows the acceleration in growth since the second half of March, when the previous upper boundary of the rising channel turned into support last week. We are also watching for the formation of a "golden cross", which could attract additional speculative buying in the coming days.
From a technical point of view, the only barrier for oil is the area of previous highs at $92.5. Approaching this area may require significant profit-taking and prolonged consolidation before the next breakout, but success is by no means guaranteed.
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
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EURUSD gets set to go
The slowdown in German inflation is fuelling hopes that the ECB will ease policy in the coming months. German CPI rose 0.4% m/m, weaker than the 0.5% expected. Annual inflation slowed from 2.5% in February to 2.2% in March, the lowest since May 2021.
Germany's reading is a useful guide to what to expect in the eurozone on Wednesday, which is likely to come in weaker than average market expectations for headline inflation to slow from 2.6% to 2.5% and core inflation to slow from 3.1% to 3.0%. At the same time, it would take a significant deviation from the forecasts to have a material impact on prices.
#EURUSD slipped to 1.075, the lower boundary of the range since November. This is a good starting position for new momentum on a breakout or bounce. US data released on Monday was supportive of a strong dollar, while German inflation data was in favour of a weaker euro. If the balance of power remains the same, EURUSD may decide to move towards 1.05.
The slowdown in German inflation is fuelling hopes that the ECB will ease policy in the coming months. German CPI rose 0.4% m/m, weaker than the 0.5% expected. Annual inflation slowed from 2.5% in February to 2.2% in March, the lowest since May 2021.
Germany's reading is a useful guide to what to expect in the eurozone on Wednesday, which is likely to come in weaker than average market expectations for headline inflation to slow from 2.6% to 2.5% and core inflation to slow from 3.1% to 3.0%. At the same time, it would take a significant deviation from the forecasts to have a material impact on prices.
#EURUSD slipped to 1.075, the lower boundary of the range since November. This is a good starting position for new momentum on a breakout or bounce. US data released on Monday was supportive of a strong dollar, while German inflation data was in favour of a weaker euro. If the balance of power remains the same, EURUSD may decide to move towards 1.05.
🚗Tesla down 6% to $164.5 on slower sales 📉
👉 Will the decline continue?
👉 Will the decline continue?
Anonymous Poll
46%
⬆️ BUY
54%
⬇️ SELL
#WaveAnalysis
#Brent crude oil broke resistance level 86.70
– Likely to rise to resistance level 90.00
Brent crude oil recently broke the resistance level 86.70, which reversed the price with the daily Evening Star in March.
The breakout of the resistance level 86.70 was preceded by the breakout of the resistance trendline of the daily up channel from December.
Brent crude oil can be expected to rise further to the next round resistance level 90.00, target price for the completion of the active impulse wave iii.
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#Brent crude oil broke resistance level 86.70
– Likely to rise to resistance level 90.00
Brent crude oil recently broke the resistance level 86.70, which reversed the price with the daily Evening Star in March.
The breakout of the resistance level 86.70 was preceded by the breakout of the resistance trendline of the daily up channel from December.
Brent crude oil can be expected to rise further to the next round resistance level 90.00, target price for the completion of the active impulse wave iii.
📣Trade responsibly with FxPro
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#WaveAnalysis
#GBPUSD reversed from pivotal support level 1.2550
Likely to rise to resistance level 1.2700
Sterling recently reversed up from the pivotal support level 1.2550, which has been reversing the pair from the start of December, as can be seen below.
The support level 1.2550 was strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band and by the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from October.
Given the strength of the support level 1.2550, Sterling can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 1.2700.
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#GBPUSD reversed from pivotal support level 1.2550
Likely to rise to resistance level 1.2700
Sterling recently reversed up from the pivotal support level 1.2550, which has been reversing the pair from the start of December, as can be seen below.
The support level 1.2550 was strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band and by the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from October.
Given the strength of the support level 1.2550, Sterling can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 1.2700.
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📈Silver soared above $26.5 per ounce, the highest in 25 months.
👉Will the rally continue?
👉Will the rally continue?
Anonymous Poll
62%
⬆️ BUY
38%
⬇️ SELL
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#Crypto market cap is down 1% in 24 hours but has seen a cautious rise from a low of $2.43 to $2.51 trillion since the start of the day on Wednesday. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has rolled back to 71 ("Greed") after over a month of "Extreme Greed". Technically, this sink looks like an invitation for a deeper dive.
Cryptocurrencies have sold off along with other risk assets. Markets are scaling back expectations for Fed easing this year after strong economic data. However, a key confirmation or denial is yet to come in the form of Friday's jobs report.
#Bitcoin fell below $65K on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, where buyers supported it. There's a combination of the psychologically important round level for retail traders and the 76.4% retracement of the rise from the January lows. This support has not yet translated into a strong rebound, with the price hovering around $66.3K as active trading begins in Europe. Should the sell-off deepen, our focus will be on the ability to hold above $63K.
Cryptocurrencies have sold off along with other risk assets. Markets are scaling back expectations for Fed easing this year after strong economic data. However, a key confirmation or denial is yet to come in the form of Friday's jobs report.
#Bitcoin fell below $65K on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, where buyers supported it. There's a combination of the psychologically important round level for retail traders and the 76.4% retracement of the rise from the January lows. This support has not yet translated into a strong rebound, with the price hovering around $66.3K as active trading begins in Europe. Should the sell-off deepen, our focus will be on the ability to hold above $63K.
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