#WaveAnalysis #NDX
Nasdaq-100 index reversed from resistance level 18400.00
Likely to fall to support level 18000.00
Nasdaq-100 index recently reversed down from the key resistance level 18400.00 (strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band), which has been reversing the index from the start of March.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 18400.00 started the active minor correction (b).
Given the strength of the resistance level 18400.00 and the bearish divergence on the daily Stochastic, Nasdaq-100 index can be expected to fall further to the next round support level 18000.00.
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Nasdaq-100 index reversed from resistance level 18400.00
Likely to fall to support level 18000.00
Nasdaq-100 index recently reversed down from the key resistance level 18400.00 (strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band), which has been reversing the index from the start of March.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 18400.00 started the active minor correction (b).
Given the strength of the resistance level 18400.00 and the bearish divergence on the daily Stochastic, Nasdaq-100 index can be expected to fall further to the next round support level 18000.00.
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#WaveAnalysis
#USDCHF broke the resistance level 0.8875
Likely to rise to resistance level 0.9100
USDCHF currency pair recently broke the resistance level 0.8875 (which has been reversing the price from February), intersecting with the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from October.
The breakout of the resistance level 0.8875 accelerated the C-wave of the active intermediate ABC correction (4).
Given the strongly bearish Swiss France sentiment seen today, USDCHF currency pair can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 0.9100 (target for the completion of the active impulse wave C).
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#USDCHF broke the resistance level 0.8875
Likely to rise to resistance level 0.9100
USDCHF currency pair recently broke the resistance level 0.8875 (which has been reversing the price from February), intersecting with the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from October.
The breakout of the resistance level 0.8875 accelerated the C-wave of the active intermediate ABC correction (4).
Given the strongly bearish Swiss France sentiment seen today, USDCHF currency pair can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 0.9100 (target for the completion of the active impulse wave C).
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#Crypto cap has stabilised around the $2.63 trillion level, losing 1.7% in 24 hours, but very close to where it was at Monday's end of the day.
Bitcoin is down 1.2%, Ethereum lost 2.3%, BNB sank 3%, and Solana is minus 4%. On the surface, the trend is for a deeper pullback in the coins that have rallied the most in recent days.
#Bitcoin has fallen back below $70K, which can be attributed to the bulls' need to let off steam and the general decline in risk appetite in global markets. The short-term focus for traders will be to see if Bitcoin can retest Tuesday's intra-day lows near $69.5K. A break below this level could signal a more protracted correction.
The US Department of Justice has filed charges against one of the world's largest crypto exchanges, KuCoin, and two of its founders. The exchange is accused of ignoring US anti-money laundering laws and failing to monitor suspicious transactions as US law requires.
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Bitcoin is down 1.2%, Ethereum lost 2.3%, BNB sank 3%, and Solana is minus 4%. On the surface, the trend is for a deeper pullback in the coins that have rallied the most in recent days.
#Bitcoin has fallen back below $70K, which can be attributed to the bulls' need to let off steam and the general decline in risk appetite in global markets. The short-term focus for traders will be to see if Bitcoin can retest Tuesday's intra-day lows near $69.5K. A break below this level could signal a more protracted correction.
The US Department of Justice has filed charges against one of the world's largest crypto exchanges, KuCoin, and two of its founders. The exchange is accused of ignoring US anti-money laundering laws and failing to monitor suspicious transactions as US law requires.
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Gold: Suspicious storm of $2200
Gold breached the $2200 mark for the second time in history on Tuesday before retreating to $2182 in early US trading. Cryptocurrencies are trading in the same direction as gold today, but silver, platinum and copper are failing to make similar gains, causing some unease.
Gold's break above $2195 tested the rally high from late February to 8th March. A fix above this level would be the first step towards a new rally, making the scenario of growth to $2300 viable.
Strictly speaking, there is a higher price on the charts, but it is the result of slippage in low liquidity trading, so it is not considered a full-fledged breakout.
Gold breached the $2200 mark for the second time in history on Tuesday before retreating to $2182 in early US trading. Cryptocurrencies are trading in the same direction as gold today, but silver, platinum and copper are failing to make similar gains, causing some unease.
Gold's break above $2195 tested the rally high from late February to 8th March. A fix above this level would be the first step towards a new rally, making the scenario of growth to $2300 viable.
Strictly speaking, there is a higher price on the charts, but it is the result of slippage in low liquidity trading, so it is not considered a full-fledged breakout.
#Silver is losing ground daily for the fourth consecutive session, falling to $24.4. Platinum is trading near $900 - near local lows after a 5% pullback from its 15th March high. Copper has been trending lower since early last week.
Gold is the most liquid metal in the exchange, but its divergence from other metals is setting it up for a false breakout on Tuesday.
This is evidenced by the persistent sideways movement in gold miners over the past three weeks despite gold's impressive rally.
Technically, gold needs to consolidate above $2200 to start a new bullish momentum. In the event of further declines, we should keep an eye on the dynamics around $2150: a failure of this support could trigger a deeper correction with the first target at $2130.
Gold is the most liquid metal in the exchange, but its divergence from other metals is setting it up for a false breakout on Tuesday.
This is evidenced by the persistent sideways movement in gold miners over the past three weeks despite gold's impressive rally.
Technically, gold needs to consolidate above $2200 to start a new bullish momentum. In the event of further declines, we should keep an eye on the dynamics around $2150: a failure of this support could trigger a deeper correction with the first target at $2130.
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USDJPY Eyes 1990 Highs: Intervention or Reversal?
The Bank of Japan's monetary policy tightening at the beginning of March not only failed to reverse but also added to the Yen's weakness. The systematic pressure on the JPY raises even more questions, given that the Fed and ECB are less than three months away from widely expected rate cuts.
The #USDJPY rose to 151.97 on Wednesday morning, 7 p above the November 2022 peak and 4 p above the October 2022 peak. Wednesday's high was the highest since 1990.
The 152 level looks like a tried and tested intervention zone. In recent days, we have heard repeated statements from government and central bank officials that there is no fundamental reason for the Yen to drop. Such signs sound like the threat of intervention, which is dangerous for short-term speculators.
This is the 3rd time in two years that the Yen has approached this level. On the previous two occasions, it works like strong pivot point, and the market is close to forming a reflex against this level.
The Bank of Japan's monetary policy tightening at the beginning of March not only failed to reverse but also added to the Yen's weakness. The systematic pressure on the JPY raises even more questions, given that the Fed and ECB are less than three months away from widely expected rate cuts.
The #USDJPY rose to 151.97 on Wednesday morning, 7 p above the November 2022 peak and 4 p above the October 2022 peak. Wednesday's high was the highest since 1990.
The 152 level looks like a tried and tested intervention zone. In recent days, we have heard repeated statements from government and central bank officials that there is no fundamental reason for the Yen to drop. Such signs sound like the threat of intervention, which is dangerous for short-term speculators.
This is the 3rd time in two years that the Yen has approached this level. On the previous two occasions, it works like strong pivot point, and the market is close to forming a reflex against this level.
However, the bulls also have a strong argument on their side.
Corrections are becoming increasingly shallow. USDJPY lost 16% in three months after approaching 152 in 2022. In 2023, however, the decline was around 7.5%. At the end of February, the pair rose gently towards 151 and turned sharply lower but rallied again after a 3.5% decline.
The initial USDJPY spike in 2022 made an impressive contribution to inflation, as, at its peak, the pair was over 33% higher than a year earlier. Long-term yen volatility is falling, and inflation is on track to stabilise around the target of 2%.
Therefore, it makes no sense for the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan to continue making 152 a red line. We are likely to see more rhetoric and possibly more policy rate hikes in the coming months, but not as dramatic FX interventions as in 2022 or late 2023.
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Corrections are becoming increasingly shallow. USDJPY lost 16% in three months after approaching 152 in 2022. In 2023, however, the decline was around 7.5%. At the end of February, the pair rose gently towards 151 and turned sharply lower but rallied again after a 3.5% decline.
The initial USDJPY spike in 2022 made an impressive contribution to inflation, as, at its peak, the pair was over 33% higher than a year earlier. Long-term yen volatility is falling, and inflation is on track to stabilise around the target of 2%.
Therefore, it makes no sense for the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan to continue making 152 a red line. We are likely to see more rhetoric and possibly more policy rate hikes in the coming months, but not as dramatic FX interventions as in 2022 or late 2023.
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Oil price rises along with inventories
US commercial oil inventories rose by 3.2m barrels last week, against expectations for a decline of 0.7m. At the same time, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve rose by 0.74m barrels, maintaining the pace of recovery since mid-December.
Oil production maintained its pace of 13.1 mb/d for the third week in a row. At current supply levels, commercial inventories are 5.5% lower than a year ago and remain near the lower end of the range over the past nine years. But before 2015, the 400M barrels level was a historical upper bound.
At the current rate, it will take almost seven years to replenish the SPR to the June 2021 start of sales. It would take almost 9.5 years to recover to the 2011 highs.
US commercial oil inventories rose by 3.2m barrels last week, against expectations for a decline of 0.7m. At the same time, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve rose by 0.74m barrels, maintaining the pace of recovery since mid-December.
Oil production maintained its pace of 13.1 mb/d for the third week in a row. At current supply levels, commercial inventories are 5.5% lower than a year ago and remain near the lower end of the range over the past nine years. But before 2015, the 400M barrels level was a historical upper bound.
At the current rate, it will take almost seven years to replenish the SPR to the June 2021 start of sales. It would take almost 9.5 years to recover to the 2011 highs.
But we are unlikely to see commercial or strategic stocks recover to the highs any time soon.
This is not feasible given the more than doubling of production over the past 15 years, reduced US dependence on imports and the development of "new energy".
Higher-than-expected inventories have not put pressure on prices.
The price of a barrel of WTI remains close to $81, holding on to the former upper boundary of the upward range that has been in place since December.
This is not feasible given the more than doubling of production over the past 15 years, reduced US dependence on imports and the development of "new energy".
Higher-than-expected inventories have not put pressure on prices.
The price of a barrel of WTI remains close to $81, holding on to the former upper boundary of the upward range that has been in place since December.
#WaveAnalysis
#GBPAUD reversed from support level 1.9245
Likely to rise to resistance level 1.9500
GBPAUD currency pair recently reversed up from the support level 1.9245 (lower border of the narrow sideways price range from January), intersecting with lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from the support level 1.9245 started the active minor impulse wave 3, which belongs to wave (3) from February.
Given the rising bullish sterling sentiment, GBPAUD currency pair can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 1.9500 (upper border of the active sideways price range).
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#GBPAUD reversed from support level 1.9245
Likely to rise to resistance level 1.9500
GBPAUD currency pair recently reversed up from the support level 1.9245 (lower border of the narrow sideways price range from January), intersecting with lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from the support level 1.9245 started the active minor impulse wave 3, which belongs to wave (3) from February.
Given the rising bullish sterling sentiment, GBPAUD currency pair can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 1.9500 (upper border of the active sideways price range).
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#WaveAnalysis
#USDJPY reversed from multi-year resistance level 151.357
Likely to fall to support level 146.90
USDJPY currency pair recently reversed up from the powerful multi-year resistance level 151.357 (former monthly high from 2022), standing close to the upper weekly Bollinger Band.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 151.357 stopped the previous minor corrective wave 2 of the weekly downward impulse sequence (C) from last year.
Given the still overbought weekly Stochastic, USDJPY currency pair can be expected to fall further to the next support level 146.90 (low of the previous weekly correction).
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#USDJPY reversed from multi-year resistance level 151.357
Likely to fall to support level 146.90
USDJPY currency pair recently reversed up from the powerful multi-year resistance level 151.357 (former monthly high from 2022), standing close to the upper weekly Bollinger Band.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 151.357 stopped the previous minor corrective wave 2 of the weekly downward impulse sequence (C) from last year.
Given the still overbought weekly Stochastic, USDJPY currency pair can be expected to fall further to the next support level 146.90 (low of the previous weekly correction).
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The #crypto market cap rose 1.4% in 24 hours to $2.66 trillion. Buyers stepped in the night before when Bitcoin touched $68.5K and pushed the price up to $70.7K at the start of active trading in Europe.
#Bitcoin was rocked on Wednesday, first pushing the price above $71.8K and then dropping to $68.5K. This plunge initially confirmed the short-term downtrend, only to be broken a few hours later with the re-take of previous local highs.
For the bulls in Bitcoin, the short-term focus is on the ability to break above $71K. Traders with a slightly longer-term horizon may prefer to wait for the first cryptocurrency's momentum to approach previous highs, where selling may intensify again.
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#Bitcoin was rocked on Wednesday, first pushing the price above $71.8K and then dropping to $68.5K. This plunge initially confirmed the short-term downtrend, only to be broken a few hours later with the re-take of previous local highs.
For the bulls in Bitcoin, the short-term focus is on the ability to break above $71K. Traders with a slightly longer-term horizon may prefer to wait for the first cryptocurrency's momentum to approach previous highs, where selling may intensify again.
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The #EURUSD accelerated its decline on Thursday, losing for the third consecutive session and falling to a five-week low below 1.0790. The pair's downtrend has been in place since the 8th of March when the latest employment report was released. The pair then failed to reach the 1.10 level.
The extended decline in EURUSD has turned the initially neutral technical picture into a negative one, with the formation of a "death cross". The 50-day moving average is about to fall below the 200-day average.
The still-strong economy remains on the dollar's side, pushing back the forecast for the first rate cut from March to June, bringing it almost in line with the ECB. It is also important to note that the ECB is expecting four cuts, compared to 2 or 3 for the Fed. The dollar is benefiting from this in the currency market.
The extended decline in EURUSD has turned the initially neutral technical picture into a negative one, with the formation of a "death cross". The 50-day moving average is about to fall below the 200-day average.
The still-strong economy remains on the dollar's side, pushing back the forecast for the first rate cut from March to June, bringing it almost in line with the ECB. It is also important to note that the ECB is expecting four cuts, compared to 2 or 3 for the Fed. The dollar is benefiting from this in the currency market.
At the same time, Europe is reporting weak domestic demand. German retail sales fell by 1.9% in February, the fourth consecutive month of decline. The year-on-year decline is 2.7%. The latest figure is a five-month low, but what is more worrying is the worsening trend.
That hasn't stopped the DAX from gaining 10% since the start of the year, twice as much as the Dow Jones, and it has gained every week since the beginning of February, hitting all-time highs in the process. The weakness of the euro has been an important factor in the German market's outperformance, although not the main one.
The ECB's willingness to ease policy more actively than the Fed is potentially working against the euro and in favour of German equity exporters. Right now, for Germany, it works like a seesaw.
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That hasn't stopped the DAX from gaining 10% since the start of the year, twice as much as the Dow Jones, and it has gained every week since the beginning of February, hitting all-time highs in the process. The weakness of the euro has been an important factor in the German market's outperformance, although not the main one.
The ECB's willingness to ease policy more actively than the Fed is potentially working against the euro and in favour of German equity exporters. Right now, for Germany, it works like a seesaw.
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📈Gold is storming $2215 nearing all-time high
🚀Will it soar more?
🚀Will it soar more?
Anonymous Poll
63%
⬆️ BUY
37%
⬇️ SELL
#WaveAnalysis #CAT
Caterpillar rising inside sharp impulse wave 5
Likely to rise to 370.00 and 400.00
Caterpillar rising inside the sharp weekly impulse wave 5 of the long-term upward impulse sequence (3) from the start of 2023.
The price earlier broke above the minor resistance level 363.80 – which should add to the bullish pressure on Caterpillar.
Given the clear daily and the weekly uptrends, Caterpillar can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 370.00 – followed by 400.00 (target for the completion of the active impulse sequence (3)).
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Caterpillar rising inside sharp impulse wave 5
Likely to rise to 370.00 and 400.00
Caterpillar rising inside the sharp weekly impulse wave 5 of the long-term upward impulse sequence (3) from the start of 2023.
The price earlier broke above the minor resistance level 363.80 – which should add to the bullish pressure on Caterpillar.
Given the clear daily and the weekly uptrends, Caterpillar can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 370.00 – followed by 400.00 (target for the completion of the active impulse sequence (3)).
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#WaveAnalysis
#EURJPY reversed from key resistance level 164.40
Likely to fall to support level 162.00
EURJPY currency pair recently reversed down after the price failed to hold the ground above the key resistance level 164.40 (which stopped the sharp uptrend in last November), standing close to the upper daily Bollinger Band.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 164.40 created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Evening Star Doji.
Given the strength of the resistance level 164.40 and the bullish yen sentiment, EURJPY currency pair can be expected to fall further to the next support level 162.00.
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#EURJPY reversed from key resistance level 164.40
Likely to fall to support level 162.00
EURJPY currency pair recently reversed down after the price failed to hold the ground above the key resistance level 164.40 (which stopped the sharp uptrend in last November), standing close to the upper daily Bollinger Band.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 164.40 created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Evening Star Doji.
Given the strength of the resistance level 164.40 and the bullish yen sentiment, EURJPY currency pair can be expected to fall further to the next support level 162.00.
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The #crypto market is up 0.3% in 24 hours to $2.66 trillion, but it's not due to reduced volatility. Bitcoin and Ethereum are trading close to the previous day's levels. Among the top coins, Doge (+7.4%) and BNB (+3.8%) are the best performers. At the other end of the spectrum are Avalanche (-1.3%) and Toncoin (-0.9%).
Bitcoin's fourth attempt to consolidate above $71K this week was unsuccessful.
#Bitcoin has thus found strong resistance, preventing the bulls from launching an offensive. The caution in this case is due to the non-trading days in the US and UK, which greatly reduce the activity of institutional traders. The $69.5K and $68.5K levels attract our increased attention. Without significant support from buyers there, the correction could become more global.
According to Deribit, open interest in Bitcoin options maturing on 29 March has risen to an all-time high of $9.5bn.
Bitcoin's fourth attempt to consolidate above $71K this week was unsuccessful.
#Bitcoin has thus found strong resistance, preventing the bulls from launching an offensive. The caution in this case is due to the non-trading days in the US and UK, which greatly reduce the activity of institutional traders. The $69.5K and $68.5K levels attract our increased attention. Without significant support from buyers there, the correction could become more global.
According to Deribit, open interest in Bitcoin options maturing on 29 March has risen to an all-time high of $9.5bn.
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S&P500’s soft growth could last for months
The US equity market continued its upward trend, with the S&P500 rising 10.8% in the first quarter, exceeding the historical average gain for a full calendar year. We are even more impressed by the low volatility of the index since the end of January.
The S&P500 has moved in a range of less than 2.5%. Frequent small market pullbacks provide fodder for further buying. This type of rally is seen in mature bull markets that have had enough of a push off the bottom but are not yet struggling to go higher.
It is also important to note that the current rally is becoming increasingly broad-based. The Magnificent Seven are falling apart, with Apple and Tesla clearly suffering, but the growth is encompassing more stocks.
The US equity market continued its upward trend, with the S&P500 rising 10.8% in the first quarter, exceeding the historical average gain for a full calendar year. We are even more impressed by the low volatility of the index since the end of January.
The S&P500 has moved in a range of less than 2.5%. Frequent small market pullbacks provide fodder for further buying. This type of rally is seen in mature bull markets that have had enough of a push off the bottom but are not yet struggling to go higher.
It is also important to note that the current rally is becoming increasingly broad-based. The Magnificent Seven are falling apart, with Apple and Tesla clearly suffering, but the growth is encompassing more stocks.
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The broadest of the popular indices, the Russell 2000, broke out to its highest level since January 2022 on Thursday. However, it has traded in a broad sideways range from April 2022 to February 2024. This is an important sign of the health of the whole stock market, not just a set of popular investment narratives.
For four months, since the second half of December, CNN's Fear and Greed Index has hovered near "extreme greed", although most of the time, it has been just below that line. It is very close to the edge, with a solid bullish trend remaining, but without the market overheating, so there is no need to let off steam.
For four months, since the second half of December, CNN's Fear and Greed Index has hovered near "extreme greed", although most of the time, it has been just below that line. It is very close to the edge, with a solid bullish trend remaining, but without the market overheating, so there is no need to let off steam.