#WaveAnalysis
#NZDUSD reversed from resistance level 0.6200
Likely to fall to support level 0.6080
NZDUSD currency pair today reversed down from the resistance level 0.6200 (which stopped the previous minor ABC correction 2 in the middle of February) intersecting with the 50% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse 1 from January.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 0.6200 created the daily candlesticks reversal pattern Shooting Star.
Given the strength of the resistance level 0.62000, NZDUSD currency pair can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 0.6080 (low of the previous wave i).
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#NZDUSD reversed from resistance level 0.6200
Likely to fall to support level 0.6080
NZDUSD currency pair today reversed down from the resistance level 0.6200 (which stopped the previous minor ABC correction 2 in the middle of February) intersecting with the 50% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse 1 from January.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 0.6200 created the daily candlesticks reversal pattern Shooting Star.
Given the strength of the resistance level 0.62000, NZDUSD currency pair can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 0.6080 (low of the previous wave i).
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#WaveAnalysis
#GBPCAD reversed from resistance level 1.7325
Likely to fall to support level 1.7200
GBPCAD currency pair today reversed down from the long-term resistance level 1.7325 (which has been reversing the pair from the middle of last year, as can be seen below).
The resistance level 1.7325 was further strengthened by the upper daily and the weekly Bollinger Bands.
Given the strength of the resistance level 1.7325 and the still overbought daily Stochastic indicator, GBPCAD currency pair can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 1.7200 (low of the previous correction iv).
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#GBPCAD reversed from resistance level 1.7325
Likely to fall to support level 1.7200
GBPCAD currency pair today reversed down from the long-term resistance level 1.7325 (which has been reversing the pair from the middle of last year, as can be seen below).
The resistance level 1.7325 was further strengthened by the upper daily and the weekly Bollinger Bands.
Given the strength of the resistance level 1.7325 and the still overbought daily Stochastic indicator, GBPCAD currency pair can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 1.7200 (low of the previous correction iv).
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US labour market has already turned a corner
Friday's employment report caused a mixed reaction in the markets, with an initial surge of optimism followed by a deterioration in sentiment as we delved into the details of the release.
The headline number in the report beat forecasts, something that everyone has pretty much become accustomed to over the past few years. The US economy created 275,000 jobs in February, much better than the 200,000 expected.
But most of the other numbers were not so rosy. First, last month's gain was revised down from 317k to 229k. This changes the perception of the labour market in January from "dangerously overheating" to "within trend".
Friday's employment report caused a mixed reaction in the markets, with an initial surge of optimism followed by a deterioration in sentiment as we delved into the details of the release.
The headline number in the report beat forecasts, something that everyone has pretty much become accustomed to over the past few years. The US economy created 275,000 jobs in February, much better than the 200,000 expected.
But most of the other numbers were not so rosy. First, last month's gain was revised down from 317k to 229k. This changes the perception of the labour market in January from "dangerously overheating" to "within trend".
Wages rose 0.1% m/m and 4.3% y/y, 0.1 pp weaker than expected for both measures. The pace has been around this level for the past 12 months. While this is above the 2.0-2.5% pace we saw from 2009 to 2017, it does not increase the risk of accelerating inflation.
The BLS gave an even softer reading in another report based on a survey of households. The official unemployment rate rose from 3.7% to 3.9% in February (no change was expected). The labour force participation rate was unchanged at 62.5%.
The BLS gave an even softer reading in another report based on a survey of households. The official unemployment rate rose from 3.7% to 3.9% in February (no change was expected). The labour force participation rate was unchanged at 62.5%.
According to the survey, the number of people in employment has fallen for three consecutive months, dropping by 898K to 160.97 million. This is the lowest level since April 2023. The expanded U-6 unemployment rate, which takes into account those wanting to work full-time, etc., is 7.3%, the highest since December 2021 and on an upward trend for the past 10 months.
The gap between the NFP and the household survey employment figures has fallen to an all-time low of 3.16 million (April 2020 only).
Thus, the US labour market report was relatively weak, suggesting that some metrics are already turning for the worse. On the one hand, this brings the date for a Fed rate cut closer. But let us be realistic: rate cuts follow volatility and a sharp sell-off in the markets. At least that's been the case for the past half a century.
The FxPro Analyst Team
The gap between the NFP and the household survey employment figures has fallen to an all-time low of 3.16 million (April 2020 only).
Thus, the US labour market report was relatively weak, suggesting that some metrics are already turning for the worse. On the one hand, this brings the date for a Fed rate cut closer. But let us be realistic: rate cuts follow volatility and a sharp sell-off in the markets. At least that's been the case for the past half a century.
The FxPro Analyst Team
The crypto market has added another 1% to its cap in 24 hours to $2.71 trillion, with an impressive pullback on Tuesday after some altcoins surged the day before.
#XRP and #Litecoin are down 5% so far today after surging more than 20% on Monday. These are all the stars of crypto bull rally of 2017. Their gains here are impressive only if you don't consider that their prices are 1/4 of their previous highs. They have been relegated to the category of laggards in this volatile market, but that doesn't negate their ability to grow. Prices of $200 for Litecoin and $1.3 for XRP are achievable within the current bull cycle.
According to CoinShares, investments in crypto funds rose by a record $2.685 billion last week, beating the previous record set three weeks earlier.
Investments in #Bitcoin increased by $2.637 billion, while investments in #Solana increased by $24 million, and #Ethereum decreased by $2 million. Investments in funds that allow bitcoin shorts increased by $11 million.
#XRP and #Litecoin are down 5% so far today after surging more than 20% on Monday. These are all the stars of crypto bull rally of 2017. Their gains here are impressive only if you don't consider that their prices are 1/4 of their previous highs. They have been relegated to the category of laggards in this volatile market, but that doesn't negate their ability to grow. Prices of $200 for Litecoin and $1.3 for XRP are achievable within the current bull cycle.
According to CoinShares, investments in crypto funds rose by a record $2.685 billion last week, beating the previous record set three weeks earlier.
Investments in #Bitcoin increased by $2.637 billion, while investments in #Solana increased by $24 million, and #Ethereum decreased by $2 million. Investments in funds that allow bitcoin shorts increased by $11 million.
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#GBP is losing ground against the US Dollar for the second day in a row as pressure mounts on fresh UK employment data.
Data for February showed a rise in Claimant Count by 16.8K - the biggest since April last year. Overall, a moderate growth trend has now been in charge for a year, after almost a year of stagnation.
The pace of wage growth has continued to slow. Earnings growth, including bonuses, slowed to 5.6% in the three months to January from 5.8% previously. This is the lowest rate in a year and a half and below the forecast of 5.7% but well above the historical average of 3.3%.
At 3.9%, unemployment remains close to lows not seen since the mid-1970s.
On balance, the labour market indicators allow the Bank of England to ease monetary policy at a much earlier date while not fuelling speculation of an imminent or imminent economic contraction. Despite high interest rates, full employment is supporting domestic final demand, which accounts for over 80% of the UK GDP.
Data for February showed a rise in Claimant Count by 16.8K - the biggest since April last year. Overall, a moderate growth trend has now been in charge for a year, after almost a year of stagnation.
The pace of wage growth has continued to slow. Earnings growth, including bonuses, slowed to 5.6% in the three months to January from 5.8% previously. This is the lowest rate in a year and a half and below the forecast of 5.7% but well above the historical average of 3.3%.
At 3.9%, unemployment remains close to lows not seen since the mid-1970s.
On balance, the labour market indicators allow the Bank of England to ease monetary policy at a much earlier date while not fuelling speculation of an imminent or imminent economic contraction. Despite high interest rates, full employment is supporting domestic final demand, which accounts for over 80% of the UK GDP.
USDJPY is bouncing back after five sessions of cumulative drop by 2.5%.
The weakening USD accompanied the pair's decline since the end of last month, but it can also be seen as a correction from the late December lows at 140.3 to last month's peaks at 150.8. Buying in the pair came at the 61.8% level, emphasising the classic Fibonacci pattern.
USDJPY also approached the 200-day MA, which has acted as a support level since mid-2023.
The yen is likely to go into consolidation for a week, freezing up until the Bank of Japan's decision next Tuesday. This is also a sufficient interval for market forces to build up enough liquidity to make a decisive move in one direction or another.
Potentially, a failure of USDJPY below 146 would signal a victory for the Bears, making us expect the next consolidation no earlier than 140-141.
On the contrary, the ability to get back above 148, where the 50-day MA is located, would be an early signal of the pair's resumption of growth with the first potential target at 150.8.
The weakening USD accompanied the pair's decline since the end of last month, but it can also be seen as a correction from the late December lows at 140.3 to last month's peaks at 150.8. Buying in the pair came at the 61.8% level, emphasising the classic Fibonacci pattern.
USDJPY also approached the 200-day MA, which has acted as a support level since mid-2023.
The yen is likely to go into consolidation for a week, freezing up until the Bank of Japan's decision next Tuesday. This is also a sufficient interval for market forces to build up enough liquidity to make a decisive move in one direction or another.
Potentially, a failure of USDJPY below 146 would signal a victory for the Bears, making us expect the next consolidation no earlier than 140-141.
On the contrary, the ability to get back above 148, where the 50-day MA is located, would be an early signal of the pair's resumption of growth with the first potential target at 150.8.
US CPI beat expectations for the 4th month. The CPI rose 0.4% m/m. The monthly growth rate has been rising since October. The year-over-year rate climbed to 3.2%, a bit above forecasted 3.1%.
Core CPI rose 0.4% m/m for the second month. The annual growth slowed to 3.8%, which formally kept it on a downward trajectory.
However, both the Headline and Core indices have risen over the past three months at a pace that would keep inflation above 2% for months to come.
This is potentially good news for the dollar, which has been given a chance to rally after selling off since mid-February. However, we will be watching the reaction of markets, where hopes of a rate cut have not moved. The consensus still points to a cut in June with a 68% probability, down from 72% a day ago and 73% a week ago. These are not significant changes.
Clearly, the inflation surprised economists but barely market traders, and they still expect the Fed to ease policy in the middle of the year as prices have not yet risen dramatically.
Core CPI rose 0.4% m/m for the second month. The annual growth slowed to 3.8%, which formally kept it on a downward trajectory.
However, both the Headline and Core indices have risen over the past three months at a pace that would keep inflation above 2% for months to come.
This is potentially good news for the dollar, which has been given a chance to rally after selling off since mid-February. However, we will be watching the reaction of markets, where hopes of a rate cut have not moved. The consensus still points to a cut in June with a 68% probability, down from 72% a day ago and 73% a week ago. These are not significant changes.
Clearly, the inflation surprised economists but barely market traders, and they still expect the Fed to ease policy in the middle of the year as prices have not yet risen dramatically.
#WaveAnalysis #NDX
Nasdaq-100 index reversed from key support level 18000.00
Likely to rise to resistance level 18400.00
Nasdaq-100 index recently reversed up from the key support level 18000.00 (former strong resistance from February acting as the support after it was broken earlier) coinciding with the 20-day moving average.
The upward reversal from the support level 18000.00 continues the three of the active impulse waves iii, 3 and (3).
Given the predominant daily uptrend, Nasdaq-100 index can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 18400.00 (which reversed the index earlier this month).
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Nasdaq-100 index reversed from key support level 18000.00
Likely to rise to resistance level 18400.00
Nasdaq-100 index recently reversed up from the key support level 18000.00 (former strong resistance from February acting as the support after it was broken earlier) coinciding with the 20-day moving average.
The upward reversal from the support level 18000.00 continues the three of the active impulse waves iii, 3 and (3).
Given the predominant daily uptrend, Nasdaq-100 index can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 18400.00 (which reversed the index earlier this month).
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#WaveAnalysis
#CADJPY reversed from support level 109.00
Likely to rise to resistance level 110.00d
CADJPY currency pair recently reversed up from the support level 109.00 (low of the previous correction 4) coinciding with the lower daily Bollinger Band and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse (1) from December.
The upward reversal from the support level 109.00 stopped the C-wave of the active ABC correction (2) from the end of February.
Given the resumption of the yen sales and the strong daily uptrend, CADJPY currency pair can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 110.00 (former low of wave A).
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#CADJPY reversed from support level 109.00
Likely to rise to resistance level 110.00d
CADJPY currency pair recently reversed up from the support level 109.00 (low of the previous correction 4) coinciding with the lower daily Bollinger Band and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse (1) from December.
The upward reversal from the support level 109.00 stopped the C-wave of the active ABC correction (2) from the end of February.
Given the resumption of the yen sales and the strong daily uptrend, CADJPY currency pair can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 110.00 (former low of wave A).
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#Crypto market rose another 0.5% over the past 24 hours to $2.75 trillion. The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index remained at 81 (extreme greed). But the past day was not a quiet one.
#Bitcoin briefly broke above $73K in a sharp move, triggering an avalanche of stop orders that drove the price down 6.5% over the next three hours to $68.6K - precisely the level from which the last rally began on Monday.
This pullback was considered an opportunity for those looking to get in at the rally, and there appear to be quite a few. The intraday nature of the move is reminiscent of the behaviour of large institutional traders, with trading algorithms intercepting the move and retail traders often joining in. Either way, the overall trend remains bullish, and Bitcoin is climbing back towards its highs as we head into early European trading.
The FxPro Analyst Team
#Bitcoin briefly broke above $73K in a sharp move, triggering an avalanche of stop orders that drove the price down 6.5% over the next three hours to $68.6K - precisely the level from which the last rally began on Monday.
This pullback was considered an opportunity for those looking to get in at the rally, and there appear to be quite a few. The intraday nature of the move is reminiscent of the behaviour of large institutional traders, with trading algorithms intercepting the move and retail traders often joining in. Either way, the overall trend remains bullish, and Bitcoin is climbing back towards its highs as we head into early European trading.
The FxPro Analyst Team
📯Copper hits 7-month high ⤴️ surpassing long-term resistance. 👉Will the rally continue?
Anonymous Poll
66%
⬆️ BUY
34%
⬇️ SELL
#Gold lost over 1% on Tuesday, its first daily decline after nine days of gains, six of which were all-time highs.
Signs of consolidation were already evident on Monday and Tuesday, which began with a moderate decline, accelerated by the release of US inflation data. While the rush out of risk assets on this news was very short-lived, the sell-off in gold was more sustained but did not go beyond a short-term fixation.
A number of factors suggest that this is a corrective pullback rather than a reversal.
Firstly, the sell-off has come to an end near $2150, where there was a consolidation at the end of last week before the latest upside momentum.
This level also coincides with the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the $175 rally of the last fortnight, when gold broke out of a bearish trading range. Such shallow corrective pullbacks are a sign of a strong bull market.
Signs of consolidation were already evident on Monday and Tuesday, which began with a moderate decline, accelerated by the release of US inflation data. While the rush out of risk assets on this news was very short-lived, the sell-off in gold was more sustained but did not go beyond a short-term fixation.
A number of factors suggest that this is a corrective pullback rather than a reversal.
Firstly, the sell-off has come to an end near $2150, where there was a consolidation at the end of last week before the latest upside momentum.
This level also coincides with the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the $175 rally of the last fortnight, when gold broke out of a bearish trading range. Such shallow corrective pullbacks are a sign of a strong bull market.
Second, gold's weakness is not supported by a general decline in risk appetite. Bitcoin briefly lost 6.5% during Tuesday's sell-off, but by Wednesday morning, it was already at all-time highs. As I write this, the Dollar Index has given back all the gains from the CPI release.
The S&P500 closed at a new high on Tuesday, and the European indices are moving further into their all-time high territory on Wednesday. The correlation between European indices and gold has become very high since the second half of December.
Separately, we note the break of multi-month resistance in copper and the rise in oil, pointing to increased risk appetite, which is also favourable for gold.
All of this suggests that we may have seen a quick recharge of the bulls yesterday, allowing them to build up liquidity - fuel for further buying and renewal of all-time highs.
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The S&P500 closed at a new high on Tuesday, and the European indices are moving further into their all-time high territory on Wednesday. The correlation between European indices and gold has become very high since the second half of December.
Separately, we note the break of multi-month resistance in copper and the rise in oil, pointing to increased risk appetite, which is also favourable for gold.
All of this suggests that we may have seen a quick recharge of the bulls yesterday, allowing them to build up liquidity - fuel for further buying and renewal of all-time highs.
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#WaveAnalysis
#WTI broke resistance level 80.00
Likely to rise to resistance level 83.20
WTI crude oil recently broke the round resistance level 80.00 (which has been reversing the price from November).
The breakout of the resistance level 80.00 coincided with the breakout of the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp downward impulse wave (C) from October.
Given the deterioration of the global risk sentiment, WTI crude oil can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 83.20.
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#WTI broke resistance level 80.00
Likely to rise to resistance level 83.20
WTI crude oil recently broke the round resistance level 80.00 (which has been reversing the price from November).
The breakout of the resistance level 80.00 coincided with the breakout of the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp downward impulse wave (C) from October.
Given the deterioration of the global risk sentiment, WTI crude oil can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 83.20.
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