Palladium soars 12%⬆️ to +2 month high >$1054. 📈will the rise continue?
Anonymous Poll
71%
BUY ⬆️
29%
SELL ⬇️
#DXY
The Dollar Index lost a third of a per cent on Wednesday and is once again attempting to break below its 200-day moving average (MA). Perhaps the formula "if it doesn't rise, it falls" can be applied to the dollar.
In early February, the dollar managed to consolidate above this line in a sharp move, but this did not put it on a growth path as one would expect. In November and December, signals that the next move would be a rate cut took almost 6% off the dollar. The dollar was only able to recover half of these losses as forecasts for the first cut were pushed back from March to June and from 6 to 3 cuts this year.
The dollar's modest performance suggests impressive selling pressure despite the positive fundamental backdrop. The dynamics of the Dollar Index suggest a change in sentiment since the second half of February, with the DXY falling every trading session in March.
The Dollar Index lost a third of a per cent on Wednesday and is once again attempting to break below its 200-day moving average (MA). Perhaps the formula "if it doesn't rise, it falls" can be applied to the dollar.
In early February, the dollar managed to consolidate above this line in a sharp move, but this did not put it on a growth path as one would expect. In November and December, signals that the next move would be a rate cut took almost 6% off the dollar. The dollar was only able to recover half of these losses as forecasts for the first cut were pushed back from March to June and from 6 to 3 cuts this year.
The dollar's modest performance suggests impressive selling pressure despite the positive fundamental backdrop. The dynamics of the Dollar Index suggest a change in sentiment since the second half of February, with the DXY falling every trading session in March.
It may be too early for dollar bulls to celebrate a turning point in this protracted battle, as the US currency has been buying back on dips below its 200-day MA since the second half of January.
Meanwhile, the #EURUSD and #GBPUSD have already scored small victories, building gains above their 200-day MAs and consolidating above their 50-day averages in the early days of March.
For the USD index, a break below 103.0 will be a significant signal to break the uptrend, opening a direct path to 102 and further to 100.50. For EURUSD, momentum in the 1.0960-1.1000 area and the ability to break above the December highs at 1.11 will be important. For GBPUSD, the focus will be on the 1.2750-1.2800 area.
Meanwhile, the #EURUSD and #GBPUSD have already scored small victories, building gains above their 200-day MAs and consolidating above their 50-day averages in the early days of March.
For the USD index, a break below 103.0 will be a significant signal to break the uptrend, opening a direct path to 102 and further to 100.50. For EURUSD, momentum in the 1.0960-1.1000 area and the ability to break above the December highs at 1.11 will be important. For GBPUSD, the focus will be on the 1.2750-1.2800 area.
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The crypto market cap remains at $2.52 trillion, close to Tuesday's highs. It is also worth noting the positive market momentum in the last few hours after the lull, which looks like the first tentative steps of buyers. We would not be surprised if they have enough strength to push Bitcoin to new highs, as is now happening with gold.
We continue to believe that an essential driver of buying in Bitcoin and gold is the uncertainty of large investors in US regional banks. There was a similar buying spree a year ago, which was only halted by the Fed's capital injection. But the fear is that a domino effect has already been set in motion for the entire industry.
We continue to believe that an essential driver of buying in Bitcoin and gold is the uncertainty of large investors in US regional banks. There was a similar buying spree a year ago, which was only halted by the Fed's capital injection. But the fear is that a domino effect has already been set in motion for the entire industry.
💵USDJPY💴 lost 1% to 147.9 on hopes of BoJ hikes. 👉Will the decline continue?
Anonymous Poll
57%
BUY ⬆️
43%
SELL ⬇️
🔔Upcoming NFP at 13:30 GMT with 198K new jobs expected. Be prepared for💲volatility!
Anonymous Poll
68%
BUY ⬆️
32%
SELL ⬇️
The cryptocurrency market is hitting new highs, bringing its capitalisation to $2.58 trillion (+2.4% in 24 hours).
But today, bitcoin is one of the market's laggards, up 1.2%, as growth is concentrated in the largest altcoins.
Ethereum is up 5% in 24 hours, and BNB went up as much as 9%, about the same as Dogecoin. Cardano is up a modest 0.45%. Sentiment remains in extreme greed territory.
Ethereum is approaching the $4000 level, confidently making the second-largest contribution to market cap gains after Bitcoin.
A similar overbought condition in Ethereum on a weekly timeframe was not seen until 2021. Given that this is the first such overbought condition after a prolonged bear market, be prepared for the move to continue. It's hard to see any significant resistance until $4100. However, like BTC, ETH is well positioned to test the highs of $4700 without significant corrections.
But today, bitcoin is one of the market's laggards, up 1.2%, as growth is concentrated in the largest altcoins.
Ethereum is up 5% in 24 hours, and BNB went up as much as 9%, about the same as Dogecoin. Cardano is up a modest 0.45%. Sentiment remains in extreme greed territory.
Ethereum is approaching the $4000 level, confidently making the second-largest contribution to market cap gains after Bitcoin.
A similar overbought condition in Ethereum on a weekly timeframe was not seen until 2021. Given that this is the first such overbought condition after a prolonged bear market, be prepared for the move to continue. It's hard to see any significant resistance until $4100. However, like BTC, ETH is well positioned to test the highs of $4700 without significant corrections.
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#WaveAnalysis
#EURGBP reversed from multi-month support level 0,8500
Likely to rise to resistance level 0.8565
EURGBP currency pair today reversed up from the major multi-month support level 0,8500 (which has been repeatedly reversing the pair from last July, as can be seen below).
The support level 0,8500 was further strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band.
Given the strength of the support level 0,8500 and the clear bullish divergence on the daily Stochastic indicator, EURGBP currency pair can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 0.8565, which stopped the earlier minor corrections iv, ii and ii.
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#EURGBP reversed from multi-month support level 0,8500
Likely to rise to resistance level 0.8565
EURGBP currency pair today reversed up from the major multi-month support level 0,8500 (which has been repeatedly reversing the pair from last July, as can be seen below).
The support level 0,8500 was further strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band.
Given the strength of the support level 0,8500 and the clear bullish divergence on the daily Stochastic indicator, EURGBP currency pair can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 0.8565, which stopped the earlier minor corrections iv, ii and ii.
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#WaveAnalysis
#Gold broke key resistance level 2150
Likely to rise to resistance level 2200
Gold continues to rise strongly after breaking the key resistance level 2150 (which stopped wave A of the active ABC correction at the start of last December, as can be seen below).
The breakout of the resistance level 2150 accelerated the active short-term impulse waves iii and C.
Given the clear daily and the weekly uptrend, Gold can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 2200 (target price for the completion of the active impulse wave iii, coinciding with the daily up channel from last year).
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#Gold broke key resistance level 2150
Likely to rise to resistance level 2200
Gold continues to rise strongly after breaking the key resistance level 2150 (which stopped wave A of the active ABC correction at the start of last December, as can be seen below).
The breakout of the resistance level 2150 accelerated the active short-term impulse waves iii and C.
Given the clear daily and the weekly uptrend, Gold can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 2200 (target price for the completion of the active impulse wave iii, coinciding with the daily up channel from last year).
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
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Bitcoin's record highs support the accelerated recovery of the crypto market. Its capitalisation reached $2.69 trillion (+1.6% in 24 hours), 10% below the record high of $2.97 trillion in November 2021. Extreme greed remains the driver of the crypto market, but major coins are getting the main influx of money.
#Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $71.5K early Monday afternoon, adding 2.5% in 24 hours. Ethereum is rising with the market, adding 1.4% in the same time frame and breaking the $4000 price.
The surge in trading activity has helped to revitalise #BNB, which is adding over 4% for the day. It has gained 25% in 7 days, twice that of Ethereum and three times ahead of Bitcoin during this interval. However, like Ether, it is about 15% away from the record highs of late 2021.
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#Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $71.5K early Monday afternoon, adding 2.5% in 24 hours. Ethereum is rising with the market, adding 1.4% in the same time frame and breaking the $4000 price.
The surge in trading activity has helped to revitalise #BNB, which is adding over 4% for the day. It has gained 25% in 7 days, twice that of Ethereum and three times ahead of Bitcoin during this interval. However, like Ether, it is about 15% away from the record highs of late 2021.
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#WaveAnalysis
#NZDUSD reversed from resistance level 0.6200
Likely to fall to support level 0.6080
NZDUSD currency pair today reversed down from the resistance level 0.6200 (which stopped the previous minor ABC correction 2 in the middle of February) intersecting with the 50% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse 1 from January.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 0.6200 created the daily candlesticks reversal pattern Shooting Star.
Given the strength of the resistance level 0.62000, NZDUSD currency pair can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 0.6080 (low of the previous wave i).
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#NZDUSD reversed from resistance level 0.6200
Likely to fall to support level 0.6080
NZDUSD currency pair today reversed down from the resistance level 0.6200 (which stopped the previous minor ABC correction 2 in the middle of February) intersecting with the 50% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse 1 from January.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 0.6200 created the daily candlesticks reversal pattern Shooting Star.
Given the strength of the resistance level 0.62000, NZDUSD currency pair can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 0.6080 (low of the previous wave i).
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#WaveAnalysis
#GBPCAD reversed from resistance level 1.7325
Likely to fall to support level 1.7200
GBPCAD currency pair today reversed down from the long-term resistance level 1.7325 (which has been reversing the pair from the middle of last year, as can be seen below).
The resistance level 1.7325 was further strengthened by the upper daily and the weekly Bollinger Bands.
Given the strength of the resistance level 1.7325 and the still overbought daily Stochastic indicator, GBPCAD currency pair can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 1.7200 (low of the previous correction iv).
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
#GBPCAD reversed from resistance level 1.7325
Likely to fall to support level 1.7200
GBPCAD currency pair today reversed down from the long-term resistance level 1.7325 (which has been reversing the pair from the middle of last year, as can be seen below).
The resistance level 1.7325 was further strengthened by the upper daily and the weekly Bollinger Bands.
Given the strength of the resistance level 1.7325 and the still overbought daily Stochastic indicator, GBPCAD currency pair can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 1.7200 (low of the previous correction iv).
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
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US labour market has already turned a corner
Friday's employment report caused a mixed reaction in the markets, with an initial surge of optimism followed by a deterioration in sentiment as we delved into the details of the release.
The headline number in the report beat forecasts, something that everyone has pretty much become accustomed to over the past few years. The US economy created 275,000 jobs in February, much better than the 200,000 expected.
But most of the other numbers were not so rosy. First, last month's gain was revised down from 317k to 229k. This changes the perception of the labour market in January from "dangerously overheating" to "within trend".
Friday's employment report caused a mixed reaction in the markets, with an initial surge of optimism followed by a deterioration in sentiment as we delved into the details of the release.
The headline number in the report beat forecasts, something that everyone has pretty much become accustomed to over the past few years. The US economy created 275,000 jobs in February, much better than the 200,000 expected.
But most of the other numbers were not so rosy. First, last month's gain was revised down from 317k to 229k. This changes the perception of the labour market in January from "dangerously overheating" to "within trend".
Wages rose 0.1% m/m and 4.3% y/y, 0.1 pp weaker than expected for both measures. The pace has been around this level for the past 12 months. While this is above the 2.0-2.5% pace we saw from 2009 to 2017, it does not increase the risk of accelerating inflation.
The BLS gave an even softer reading in another report based on a survey of households. The official unemployment rate rose from 3.7% to 3.9% in February (no change was expected). The labour force participation rate was unchanged at 62.5%.
The BLS gave an even softer reading in another report based on a survey of households. The official unemployment rate rose from 3.7% to 3.9% in February (no change was expected). The labour force participation rate was unchanged at 62.5%.
According to the survey, the number of people in employment has fallen for three consecutive months, dropping by 898K to 160.97 million. This is the lowest level since April 2023. The expanded U-6 unemployment rate, which takes into account those wanting to work full-time, etc., is 7.3%, the highest since December 2021 and on an upward trend for the past 10 months.
The gap between the NFP and the household survey employment figures has fallen to an all-time low of 3.16 million (April 2020 only).
Thus, the US labour market report was relatively weak, suggesting that some metrics are already turning for the worse. On the one hand, this brings the date for a Fed rate cut closer. But let us be realistic: rate cuts follow volatility and a sharp sell-off in the markets. At least that's been the case for the past half a century.
The FxPro Analyst Team
The gap between the NFP and the household survey employment figures has fallen to an all-time low of 3.16 million (April 2020 only).
Thus, the US labour market report was relatively weak, suggesting that some metrics are already turning for the worse. On the one hand, this brings the date for a Fed rate cut closer. But let us be realistic: rate cuts follow volatility and a sharp sell-off in the markets. At least that's been the case for the past half a century.
The FxPro Analyst Team
The crypto market has added another 1% to its cap in 24 hours to $2.71 trillion, with an impressive pullback on Tuesday after some altcoins surged the day before.
#XRP and #Litecoin are down 5% so far today after surging more than 20% on Monday. These are all the stars of crypto bull rally of 2017. Their gains here are impressive only if you don't consider that their prices are 1/4 of their previous highs. They have been relegated to the category of laggards in this volatile market, but that doesn't negate their ability to grow. Prices of $200 for Litecoin and $1.3 for XRP are achievable within the current bull cycle.
According to CoinShares, investments in crypto funds rose by a record $2.685 billion last week, beating the previous record set three weeks earlier.
Investments in #Bitcoin increased by $2.637 billion, while investments in #Solana increased by $24 million, and #Ethereum decreased by $2 million. Investments in funds that allow bitcoin shorts increased by $11 million.
#XRP and #Litecoin are down 5% so far today after surging more than 20% on Monday. These are all the stars of crypto bull rally of 2017. Their gains here are impressive only if you don't consider that their prices are 1/4 of their previous highs. They have been relegated to the category of laggards in this volatile market, but that doesn't negate their ability to grow. Prices of $200 for Litecoin and $1.3 for XRP are achievable within the current bull cycle.
According to CoinShares, investments in crypto funds rose by a record $2.685 billion last week, beating the previous record set three weeks earlier.
Investments in #Bitcoin increased by $2.637 billion, while investments in #Solana increased by $24 million, and #Ethereum decreased by $2 million. Investments in funds that allow bitcoin shorts increased by $11 million.
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#GBP is losing ground against the US Dollar for the second day in a row as pressure mounts on fresh UK employment data.
Data for February showed a rise in Claimant Count by 16.8K - the biggest since April last year. Overall, a moderate growth trend has now been in charge for a year, after almost a year of stagnation.
The pace of wage growth has continued to slow. Earnings growth, including bonuses, slowed to 5.6% in the three months to January from 5.8% previously. This is the lowest rate in a year and a half and below the forecast of 5.7% but well above the historical average of 3.3%.
At 3.9%, unemployment remains close to lows not seen since the mid-1970s.
On balance, the labour market indicators allow the Bank of England to ease monetary policy at a much earlier date while not fuelling speculation of an imminent or imminent economic contraction. Despite high interest rates, full employment is supporting domestic final demand, which accounts for over 80% of the UK GDP.
Data for February showed a rise in Claimant Count by 16.8K - the biggest since April last year. Overall, a moderate growth trend has now been in charge for a year, after almost a year of stagnation.
The pace of wage growth has continued to slow. Earnings growth, including bonuses, slowed to 5.6% in the three months to January from 5.8% previously. This is the lowest rate in a year and a half and below the forecast of 5.7% but well above the historical average of 3.3%.
At 3.9%, unemployment remains close to lows not seen since the mid-1970s.
On balance, the labour market indicators allow the Bank of England to ease monetary policy at a much earlier date while not fuelling speculation of an imminent or imminent economic contraction. Despite high interest rates, full employment is supporting domestic final demand, which accounts for over 80% of the UK GDP.