Euro area PPI fell more than expected
Price falls in Europe are faster than expected, bringing the date of ECB monetary easing closer. It is looking more and more realistic that Europe will move to easing sooner than America.
Eurozone producer prices fell by 0.9% in January, following the same decline in the previous month and a 0.5% fall in November. Analysts had, on average, expected a 0.1% fall. Falling prices and slowing economic activity in China should also be seen as a factor weighing on prices in Europe. Both Europe and the US fear deflationary pressures on prices due to overproduction. The public is unlikely to see this as a problem at first and may welcome cheaper goods. In the longer term, deflation is likely to be seen as a sign of economic weakness.
For the FX market, weakness in producer prices is a downward pressure on the currency as it brings the date of policy easing closer and reflects weak demand.
Price falls in Europe are faster than expected, bringing the date of ECB monetary easing closer. It is looking more and more realistic that Europe will move to easing sooner than America.
Eurozone producer prices fell by 0.9% in January, following the same decline in the previous month and a 0.5% fall in November. Analysts had, on average, expected a 0.1% fall. Falling prices and slowing economic activity in China should also be seen as a factor weighing on prices in Europe. Both Europe and the US fear deflationary pressures on prices due to overproduction. The public is unlikely to see this as a problem at first and may welcome cheaper goods. In the longer term, deflation is likely to be seen as a sign of economic weakness.
For the FX market, weakness in producer prices is a downward pressure on the currency as it brings the date of policy easing closer and reflects weak demand.
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#WaveAnalysis #ADBE
Adobe reversed from resistance level 572.00
Likely to fall to support level 530.50
Adobe recently reversed down from the resistance level 572.00 (former support from November and January, which also stopped the previous minor correction a last month).
The resistance level 572.00 was strengthened by the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp downward impulse wave 1 from the start of last month.
Adobe can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 530.50 (which stopped the previous minor impulse wave 1 last month).
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Adobe reversed from resistance level 572.00
Likely to fall to support level 530.50
Adobe recently reversed down from the resistance level 572.00 (former support from November and January, which also stopped the previous minor correction a last month).
The resistance level 572.00 was strengthened by the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp downward impulse wave 1 from the start of last month.
Adobe can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 530.50 (which stopped the previous minor impulse wave 1 last month).
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#WaveAnalysis
#Ebay broke multi-month resistance level 49.30
Likely to rise to resistance level 52.00
Ebay continues to rise sharply after the price broke through the major multi-month resistance level 49.30 (which reversed the price in the middle of last year).
The breakout of the resistance level 49.30 continues the active impulse wave 3 of the intermediate impulse sequence (C) from January.
Given the clear daily uptrend, Ebay can be expected to rise further toward the next major resistance level 52.00 (which stopped the daily uptrend in February of 2023).
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#Ebay broke multi-month resistance level 49.30
Likely to rise to resistance level 52.00
Ebay continues to rise sharply after the price broke through the major multi-month resistance level 49.30 (which reversed the price in the middle of last year).
The breakout of the resistance level 49.30 continues the active impulse wave 3 of the intermediate impulse sequence (C) from January.
Given the clear daily uptrend, Ebay can be expected to rise further toward the next major resistance level 52.00 (which stopped the daily uptrend in February of 2023).
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#Crypto
The cryptocurrency market is building capitalisation towards the 24-hour level, but it's a relatively modest +0.6% to $2.51 trillion. That's close to, but still below Tuesday's highs.
#Bitcoin briefly topped $69K on Tuesday, setting a new all-time high, but has since corrected by more than 15%.
The size, speed and nature of the decline indicate a desire for "weak hands" to exit Bitcoin. At its lowest point, the price fell below $59K due to large orders that the market was unable to quickly digest. Excluding this spike, we can assume that the price fell to $62K - last week's consolidation area - wiping out all the recent gains.
We saw these 15% corrections for a long time after the first update of the highs in the last cycle in 2020. It's worth bracing for up to several weeks of consolidation in the 15-20% range.
The cryptocurrency market is building capitalisation towards the 24-hour level, but it's a relatively modest +0.6% to $2.51 trillion. That's close to, but still below Tuesday's highs.
#Bitcoin briefly topped $69K on Tuesday, setting a new all-time high, but has since corrected by more than 15%.
The size, speed and nature of the decline indicate a desire for "weak hands" to exit Bitcoin. At its lowest point, the price fell below $59K due to large orders that the market was unable to quickly digest. Excluding this spike, we can assume that the price fell to $62K - last week's consolidation area - wiping out all the recent gains.
We saw these 15% corrections for a long time after the first update of the highs in the last cycle in 2020. It's worth bracing for up to several weeks of consolidation in the 15-20% range.
Many altcoins have pulled back significantly from recent highs, looking back at BTC. But not #Ethereum, which hit new highs since January 2022 at $3865 on Wednesday morning.
The second most important cryptocurrency very quickly crossed the key $3500 threshold (161.8% of the year-end rally and local April 2022 high). According to the Fibonacci model, the next upside target is the 261.8% level, which is just above $4600 and close to historical highs.
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The second most important cryptocurrency very quickly crossed the key $3500 threshold (161.8% of the year-end rally and local April 2022 high). According to the Fibonacci model, the next upside target is the 261.8% level, which is just above $4600 and close to historical highs.
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Palladium soars 12%⬆️ to +2 month high >$1054. 📈will the rise continue?
Anonymous Poll
71%
BUY ⬆️
29%
SELL ⬇️
#DXY
The Dollar Index lost a third of a per cent on Wednesday and is once again attempting to break below its 200-day moving average (MA). Perhaps the formula "if it doesn't rise, it falls" can be applied to the dollar.
In early February, the dollar managed to consolidate above this line in a sharp move, but this did not put it on a growth path as one would expect. In November and December, signals that the next move would be a rate cut took almost 6% off the dollar. The dollar was only able to recover half of these losses as forecasts for the first cut were pushed back from March to June and from 6 to 3 cuts this year.
The dollar's modest performance suggests impressive selling pressure despite the positive fundamental backdrop. The dynamics of the Dollar Index suggest a change in sentiment since the second half of February, with the DXY falling every trading session in March.
The Dollar Index lost a third of a per cent on Wednesday and is once again attempting to break below its 200-day moving average (MA). Perhaps the formula "if it doesn't rise, it falls" can be applied to the dollar.
In early February, the dollar managed to consolidate above this line in a sharp move, but this did not put it on a growth path as one would expect. In November and December, signals that the next move would be a rate cut took almost 6% off the dollar. The dollar was only able to recover half of these losses as forecasts for the first cut were pushed back from March to June and from 6 to 3 cuts this year.
The dollar's modest performance suggests impressive selling pressure despite the positive fundamental backdrop. The dynamics of the Dollar Index suggest a change in sentiment since the second half of February, with the DXY falling every trading session in March.
It may be too early for dollar bulls to celebrate a turning point in this protracted battle, as the US currency has been buying back on dips below its 200-day MA since the second half of January.
Meanwhile, the #EURUSD and #GBPUSD have already scored small victories, building gains above their 200-day MAs and consolidating above their 50-day averages in the early days of March.
For the USD index, a break below 103.0 will be a significant signal to break the uptrend, opening a direct path to 102 and further to 100.50. For EURUSD, momentum in the 1.0960-1.1000 area and the ability to break above the December highs at 1.11 will be important. For GBPUSD, the focus will be on the 1.2750-1.2800 area.
Meanwhile, the #EURUSD and #GBPUSD have already scored small victories, building gains above their 200-day MAs and consolidating above their 50-day averages in the early days of March.
For the USD index, a break below 103.0 will be a significant signal to break the uptrend, opening a direct path to 102 and further to 100.50. For EURUSD, momentum in the 1.0960-1.1000 area and the ability to break above the December highs at 1.11 will be important. For GBPUSD, the focus will be on the 1.2750-1.2800 area.
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The crypto market cap remains at $2.52 trillion, close to Tuesday's highs. It is also worth noting the positive market momentum in the last few hours after the lull, which looks like the first tentative steps of buyers. We would not be surprised if they have enough strength to push Bitcoin to new highs, as is now happening with gold.
We continue to believe that an essential driver of buying in Bitcoin and gold is the uncertainty of large investors in US regional banks. There was a similar buying spree a year ago, which was only halted by the Fed's capital injection. But the fear is that a domino effect has already been set in motion for the entire industry.
We continue to believe that an essential driver of buying in Bitcoin and gold is the uncertainty of large investors in US regional banks. There was a similar buying spree a year ago, which was only halted by the Fed's capital injection. But the fear is that a domino effect has already been set in motion for the entire industry.
💵USDJPY💴 lost 1% to 147.9 on hopes of BoJ hikes. 👉Will the decline continue?
Anonymous Poll
57%
BUY ⬆️
43%
SELL ⬇️
🔔Upcoming NFP at 13:30 GMT with 198K new jobs expected. Be prepared for💲volatility!
Anonymous Poll
68%
BUY ⬆️
32%
SELL ⬇️
The cryptocurrency market is hitting new highs, bringing its capitalisation to $2.58 trillion (+2.4% in 24 hours).
But today, bitcoin is one of the market's laggards, up 1.2%, as growth is concentrated in the largest altcoins.
Ethereum is up 5% in 24 hours, and BNB went up as much as 9%, about the same as Dogecoin. Cardano is up a modest 0.45%. Sentiment remains in extreme greed territory.
Ethereum is approaching the $4000 level, confidently making the second-largest contribution to market cap gains after Bitcoin.
A similar overbought condition in Ethereum on a weekly timeframe was not seen until 2021. Given that this is the first such overbought condition after a prolonged bear market, be prepared for the move to continue. It's hard to see any significant resistance until $4100. However, like BTC, ETH is well positioned to test the highs of $4700 without significant corrections.
But today, bitcoin is one of the market's laggards, up 1.2%, as growth is concentrated in the largest altcoins.
Ethereum is up 5% in 24 hours, and BNB went up as much as 9%, about the same as Dogecoin. Cardano is up a modest 0.45%. Sentiment remains in extreme greed territory.
Ethereum is approaching the $4000 level, confidently making the second-largest contribution to market cap gains after Bitcoin.
A similar overbought condition in Ethereum on a weekly timeframe was not seen until 2021. Given that this is the first such overbought condition after a prolonged bear market, be prepared for the move to continue. It's hard to see any significant resistance until $4100. However, like BTC, ETH is well positioned to test the highs of $4700 without significant corrections.
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#WaveAnalysis
#EURGBP reversed from multi-month support level 0,8500
Likely to rise to resistance level 0.8565
EURGBP currency pair today reversed up from the major multi-month support level 0,8500 (which has been repeatedly reversing the pair from last July, as can be seen below).
The support level 0,8500 was further strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band.
Given the strength of the support level 0,8500 and the clear bullish divergence on the daily Stochastic indicator, EURGBP currency pair can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 0.8565, which stopped the earlier minor corrections iv, ii and ii.
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#EURGBP reversed from multi-month support level 0,8500
Likely to rise to resistance level 0.8565
EURGBP currency pair today reversed up from the major multi-month support level 0,8500 (which has been repeatedly reversing the pair from last July, as can be seen below).
The support level 0,8500 was further strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band.
Given the strength of the support level 0,8500 and the clear bullish divergence on the daily Stochastic indicator, EURGBP currency pair can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 0.8565, which stopped the earlier minor corrections iv, ii and ii.
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#WaveAnalysis
#Gold broke key resistance level 2150
Likely to rise to resistance level 2200
Gold continues to rise strongly after breaking the key resistance level 2150 (which stopped wave A of the active ABC correction at the start of last December, as can be seen below).
The breakout of the resistance level 2150 accelerated the active short-term impulse waves iii and C.
Given the clear daily and the weekly uptrend, Gold can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 2200 (target price for the completion of the active impulse wave iii, coinciding with the daily up channel from last year).
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#Gold broke key resistance level 2150
Likely to rise to resistance level 2200
Gold continues to rise strongly after breaking the key resistance level 2150 (which stopped wave A of the active ABC correction at the start of last December, as can be seen below).
The breakout of the resistance level 2150 accelerated the active short-term impulse waves iii and C.
Given the clear daily and the weekly uptrend, Gold can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 2200 (target price for the completion of the active impulse wave iii, coinciding with the daily up channel from last year).
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Bitcoin's record highs support the accelerated recovery of the crypto market. Its capitalisation reached $2.69 trillion (+1.6% in 24 hours), 10% below the record high of $2.97 trillion in November 2021. Extreme greed remains the driver of the crypto market, but major coins are getting the main influx of money.
#Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $71.5K early Monday afternoon, adding 2.5% in 24 hours. Ethereum is rising with the market, adding 1.4% in the same time frame and breaking the $4000 price.
The surge in trading activity has helped to revitalise #BNB, which is adding over 4% for the day. It has gained 25% in 7 days, twice that of Ethereum and three times ahead of Bitcoin during this interval. However, like Ether, it is about 15% away from the record highs of late 2021.
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#Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $71.5K early Monday afternoon, adding 2.5% in 24 hours. Ethereum is rising with the market, adding 1.4% in the same time frame and breaking the $4000 price.
The surge in trading activity has helped to revitalise #BNB, which is adding over 4% for the day. It has gained 25% in 7 days, twice that of Ethereum and three times ahead of Bitcoin during this interval. However, like Ether, it is about 15% away from the record highs of late 2021.
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#WaveAnalysis
#NZDUSD reversed from resistance level 0.6200
Likely to fall to support level 0.6080
NZDUSD currency pair today reversed down from the resistance level 0.6200 (which stopped the previous minor ABC correction 2 in the middle of February) intersecting with the 50% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse 1 from January.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 0.6200 created the daily candlesticks reversal pattern Shooting Star.
Given the strength of the resistance level 0.62000, NZDUSD currency pair can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 0.6080 (low of the previous wave i).
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#NZDUSD reversed from resistance level 0.6200
Likely to fall to support level 0.6080
NZDUSD currency pair today reversed down from the resistance level 0.6200 (which stopped the previous minor ABC correction 2 in the middle of February) intersecting with the 50% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse 1 from January.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 0.6200 created the daily candlesticks reversal pattern Shooting Star.
Given the strength of the resistance level 0.62000, NZDUSD currency pair can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 0.6080 (low of the previous wave i).
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#WaveAnalysis
#GBPCAD reversed from resistance level 1.7325
Likely to fall to support level 1.7200
GBPCAD currency pair today reversed down from the long-term resistance level 1.7325 (which has been reversing the pair from the middle of last year, as can be seen below).
The resistance level 1.7325 was further strengthened by the upper daily and the weekly Bollinger Bands.
Given the strength of the resistance level 1.7325 and the still overbought daily Stochastic indicator, GBPCAD currency pair can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 1.7200 (low of the previous correction iv).
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#GBPCAD reversed from resistance level 1.7325
Likely to fall to support level 1.7200
GBPCAD currency pair today reversed down from the long-term resistance level 1.7325 (which has been reversing the pair from the middle of last year, as can be seen below).
The resistance level 1.7325 was further strengthened by the upper daily and the weekly Bollinger Bands.
Given the strength of the resistance level 1.7325 and the still overbought daily Stochastic indicator, GBPCAD currency pair can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 1.7200 (low of the previous correction iv).
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