Separately, it is worth considering the implications of the Kiwi's current failure for the technical picture.
The NZDUSD reversed to the downside at the end of last week, failing to break above the 50-day moving average. Today, the bulls finally capitulated, creating a solid move. Such momentum is often the start of a longer trend.
However, the bears' willingness to keep pushing the market lower is about to face a significant test in the form of the 200-day moving average. It passes 0.6070 against the current price of 0.6090 and 0.6170 earlier in the day.
The pair has crossed from the bottom to the top of this curve since the second half of January and has found buying support on dips below it. A revised view on monetary policy seems to be reason enough to break below a vital trendline, but we will have to wait for a break of the 200-day moving average from top to bottom first.
The NZDUSD reversed to the downside at the end of last week, failing to break above the 50-day moving average. Today, the bulls finally capitulated, creating a solid move. Such momentum is often the start of a longer trend.
However, the bears' willingness to keep pushing the market lower is about to face a significant test in the form of the 200-day moving average. It passes 0.6070 against the current price of 0.6090 and 0.6170 earlier in the day.
The pair has crossed from the bottom to the top of this curve since the second half of January and has found buying support on dips below it. A revised view on monetary policy seems to be reason enough to break below a vital trendline, but we will have to wait for a break of the 200-day moving average from top to bottom first.
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n an impressive surge of more than 7.3% in 24 hours, the crypto market cap reached $2.32 trillion. The crypto market hasn't been worth this much since late 2021. Back then, it took two months to get from current valuations to a peak of $3 trillion. But it's worth remembering that the rally then started from a higher point of around $1.9 trillion versus the current $1.5 trillion. This means that we're likely to see some profit-taking before the all-time highs are reached.
Yesterday, #Bitcoin broke above $64.25K, followed by a sharp but short-lived pullback to $59K. In the early hours of Thursday morning, the price moved back up and was again at $63K by Thursday morning.
The main catalysts for Bitcoin's rise above $60K were the influx of big money into spot ETFs and the multiplied liquidation of short positions. BTC has already hit all-time highs against local currencies in many countries. Now, investors are waiting for the milestone to happen with the US dollar.
Yesterday, #Bitcoin broke above $64.25K, followed by a sharp but short-lived pullback to $59K. In the early hours of Thursday morning, the price moved back up and was again at $63K by Thursday morning.
The main catalysts for Bitcoin's rise above $60K were the influx of big money into spot ETFs and the multiplied liquidation of short positions. BTC has already hit all-time highs against local currencies in many countries. Now, investors are waiting for the milestone to happen with the US dollar.
#Ethereum is showing smoother growth, adding 5.9% for the day against Bitcoin's 8%. On the chart, however, the rise is smooth and reminiscent of the period when professional players were accumulating coins. We attribute this behaviour to the ongoing speculation around the launch of Ethereum ETFs, given the success of Bitcoin.
Meanwhile, the second cryptocurrency's exchange rate approached $3500, close to Wednesday's intraday high and a return to the April 2022 peak.
#Solana, the market favourite at the end of last year, is showing double-digit growth overnight, rewriting December's highs. Here, we see a classic Fibonacci pattern at work: the September-December growth momentum ended with a 38.2% pullback, and on Wednesday evening, the price retraced the highs. Now, the growth target for this pattern is $194 (161.8%).
Meanwhile, the second cryptocurrency's exchange rate approached $3500, close to Wednesday's intraday high and a return to the April 2022 peak.
#Solana, the market favourite at the end of last year, is showing double-digit growth overnight, rewriting December's highs. Here, we see a classic Fibonacci pattern at work: the September-December growth momentum ended with a 38.2% pullback, and on Wednesday evening, the price retraced the highs. Now, the growth target for this pattern is $194 (161.8%).
America continues to build up its oil reserves, albeit at a relatively slow pace and from a low base. Last week, commercial oil inventories rose by 4.2 million barrels. About ¾ million barrels were added to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, a pace the government has been pursuing since mid-December. At this rate, it would take more than seven years of replenishment to bring the reserves back to their April 2021 plateau. Admittedly, this is unlikely to happen at all, as America has become a net exporter and needs these reserves less than it did at the end of the last century.
In the short term, the increase in reserves has been a deterrent for oil prices in recent weeks. Yesterday, the price of WTI failed to break away from its 200-day moving average.
In the short term, the increase in reserves has been a deterrent for oil prices in recent weeks. Yesterday, the price of WTI failed to break away from its 200-day moving average.
However, the report of rising inventories acted as a catalyst, while the main reason was comments from an influential energy advisor from Russia. Mr Novak, who previously played a crucial role in coordinating OPEC+ efforts, said that extending production cuts into the second quarter was not yet a done deal.
The net result of these swings is that oil has been stuck at the 200-day average for the past two weeks. This has also been the area of resistance since the second half of November: all this time, WTI oil has been held by the bears as they approach $80.
A defence of this level looks fundamental, as it could inspire speculators to step up their buying, breaking away from the 200-day and turning it to the upside. The current 3% sideways range in oil is very narrow, so we expect a trend to start soon in either direction.
But we should not forget that oil has been stuck in the 5-8% range for several months in recent years.
The net result of these swings is that oil has been stuck at the 200-day average for the past two weeks. This has also been the area of resistance since the second half of November: all this time, WTI oil has been held by the bears as they approach $80.
A defence of this level looks fundamental, as it could inspire speculators to step up their buying, breaking away from the 200-day and turning it to the upside. The current 3% sideways range in oil is very narrow, so we expect a trend to start soon in either direction.
But we should not forget that oil has been stuck in the 5-8% range for several months in recent years.
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The US Personal Expenditure Price Index, excluding food and energy, rose 0.4% m/m and slowed from 2.9% y/y to 2.8% in January, as expected.
A 1% rise in personal income came as a surprise, against expectations for a 0.4% rise. However, personal disposable income rose by 0.3% m/m, which did not break the trend of recent months.
At the same time, there was no acceleration in spending, which rose by 0.3% m/m. They rose by 5.2% y/y, against a 4.8% rise in total income and a 4.5% rise in disposable income. A worrying result - the savings rate of 3.6% is about half the pre-pandemic level. But the good news for markets is that this won't cause inflation to accelerate, meaning the Fed won't have to fight it and delay policy easing.
In the wake of this report, gold is storming through the resistance of the downward channel, and the Nasdaq100 and S&P500 indices are testing all-time highs again.
A 1% rise in personal income came as a surprise, against expectations for a 0.4% rise. However, personal disposable income rose by 0.3% m/m, which did not break the trend of recent months.
At the same time, there was no acceleration in spending, which rose by 0.3% m/m. They rose by 5.2% y/y, against a 4.8% rise in total income and a 4.5% rise in disposable income. A worrying result - the savings rate of 3.6% is about half the pre-pandemic level. But the good news for markets is that this won't cause inflation to accelerate, meaning the Fed won't have to fight it and delay policy easing.
In the wake of this report, gold is storming through the resistance of the downward channel, and the Nasdaq100 and S&P500 indices are testing all-time highs again.
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#WaveAnalysis
#USDJPY reversed from resistance level 151.35
Likely to fall to support level 147.90
USDJPY currency pair recently reversed down from the powerful long-term resistance level 151.35 (previous yearly high from 2022 and 2023).
The downward reversal from the resistance level 151.35 stopped the previous weekly ABC correction 2 from the end of last year.
Given the strength of the resistance level 151.35 and the resumed yen demand, USDJPY currency pair can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 147.90.
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#USDJPY reversed from resistance level 151.35
Likely to fall to support level 147.90
USDJPY currency pair recently reversed down from the powerful long-term resistance level 151.35 (previous yearly high from 2022 and 2023).
The downward reversal from the resistance level 151.35 stopped the previous weekly ABC correction 2 from the end of last year.
Given the strength of the resistance level 151.35 and the resumed yen demand, USDJPY currency pair can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 147.90.
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#WaveAnalysis #SPX
S&P 500 reversed from key support level 5050.00
Likely to rise to resistance level 5115.00
S&P 500 index recently reversed up from the key support level 5050.00 (former resistance from the start of February, which stopped the previous waves v and i).
The upward reversal from the support level 5050.00 continues the active impulse waves iii and 5 of the extended upward impulse sequence (C) from last October.
Given the clear daily uptrend, S&P 500 index can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 5115.00.
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S&P 500 reversed from key support level 5050.00
Likely to rise to resistance level 5115.00
S&P 500 index recently reversed up from the key support level 5050.00 (former resistance from the start of February, which stopped the previous waves v and i).
The upward reversal from the support level 5050.00 continues the active impulse waves iii and 5 of the extended upward impulse sequence (C) from last October.
Given the clear daily uptrend, S&P 500 index can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 5115.00.
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The crypto market cap has corrected by 2%, dropping below the $2.3 trillion. Now, this looks like a technical correction. Bitcoin and Ether are drawing their seventh consecutive daily growth candle, albeit at a distance from the previous two days' highs.
#Bitcoin rose 44.7% in February, the strongest monthly gain since December 2020. This coming March is not considered favourable from a seasonal perspective.
Over the past 13 years, bitcoin has ended March with eight declines and only five gains. The average decline was 15%, while the average gain was 17.5%.
Altcoins such as #Uniswap and #Theta have gained around 90% in the last 30 days, including +50% in the last seven days. The same can be said for Dogecoin, which has added around 50% over the month and 42% over the last seven days.
Is this the season for altcoins? We doubt it, given that the first cryptocurrency still accounts for over 50% of the total market cap and that this figure has been rising since the beginning of 2023.
#Bitcoin rose 44.7% in February, the strongest monthly gain since December 2020. This coming March is not considered favourable from a seasonal perspective.
Over the past 13 years, bitcoin has ended March with eight declines and only five gains. The average decline was 15%, while the average gain was 17.5%.
Altcoins such as #Uniswap and #Theta have gained around 90% in the last 30 days, including +50% in the last seven days. The same can be said for Dogecoin, which has added around 50% over the month and 42% over the last seven days.
Is this the season for altcoins? We doubt it, given that the first cryptocurrency still accounts for over 50% of the total market cap and that this figure has been rising since the beginning of 2023.
Gold tries to break through historical resistance
Gold has gained less than 1% over the past two days, but the gains are significant because they mark a break in the downtrend since late December. Thursday's and Friday's gains also reaffirm gold's ability to rise above its 50-day moving average, which it failed to do a month ago.
Since peaking at the very end of last year, gold has been in a downtrend, forming a series of declining local highs and lows.
Since mid-February, risk appetite has been growing in financial markets, as evidenced by the synchronised increase in buying in European and Asian markets and the ongoing rally in cryptocurrencies since the beginning of the month.
Gold has gained less than 1% over the past two days, but the gains are significant because they mark a break in the downtrend since late December. Thursday's and Friday's gains also reaffirm gold's ability to rise above its 50-day moving average, which it failed to do a month ago.
Since peaking at the very end of last year, gold has been in a downtrend, forming a series of declining local highs and lows.
Since mid-February, risk appetite has been growing in financial markets, as evidenced by the synchronised increase in buying in European and Asian markets and the ongoing rally in cryptocurrencies since the beginning of the month.
No need to rush, as we can only call a break of the downtrend corridor after a consolidation above the previous high.
Gold is currently testing this top at $2055, which is a substantial level from which selling has intensified since early January. Moreover, the price has failed to consolidate above this level since August 2020. It could well be called a historical resistance.
It will be possible to talk about the realisation of the bullish scenario for gold after the daily candle closes above $2055. In this case, the first target for growth will be in the region of $2088 - the December high.
There is an even longer-term scenario. The pullback from the beginning of the year to mid-February is a classic Fibonacci retracement of 61.8% of the first growth impulse from the October lows. The realisation of this scenario will be the advance to $2255 (161.8% of the first advance).
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Gold is currently testing this top at $2055, which is a substantial level from which selling has intensified since early January. Moreover, the price has failed to consolidate above this level since August 2020. It could well be called a historical resistance.
It will be possible to talk about the realisation of the bullish scenario for gold after the daily candle closes above $2055. In this case, the first target for growth will be in the region of $2088 - the December high.
There is an even longer-term scenario. The pullback from the beginning of the year to mid-February is a classic Fibonacci retracement of 61.8% of the first growth impulse from the October lows. The realisation of this scenario will be the advance to $2255 (161.8% of the first advance).
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#WaveAnalysis
#Gold approached key resistance level 2090.00
Likely to correct down to support level 2050.00
Gold today rose sharply after the price broke through the key resistance level 2050.00 (which has been reversing the price from the start of January).
The price is currently trading close to the key resistance level 2090.00, former monthly high from last December.
Given the strength of the resistance level 2090.00 and the overbought daily Stochastic, Gold can be expected to all further toward the next support level 2050.00.
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#Gold approached key resistance level 2090.00
Likely to correct down to support level 2050.00
Gold today rose sharply after the price broke through the key resistance level 2050.00 (which has been reversing the price from the start of January).
The price is currently trading close to the key resistance level 2090.00, former monthly high from last December.
Given the strength of the resistance level 2090.00 and the overbought daily Stochastic, Gold can be expected to all further toward the next support level 2050.00.
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#WaveAnalysis
#CADJPY reversed from key support level 110.30
Likely to rise to resistance level 112.00
CADJPY currency pair recently reversed up from the key support level 110.30 (former strong resistance from January).
The support level 110.30 was strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band and by the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous upward impulse 1 from January.
Given the clear daily uptrend, CADJPY currency pair can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 112.00 (which stopped the previous impulse wave 1).
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#CADJPY reversed from key support level 110.30
Likely to rise to resistance level 112.00
CADJPY currency pair recently reversed up from the key support level 110.30 (former strong resistance from January).
The support level 110.30 was strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band and by the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous upward impulse 1 from January.
Given the clear daily uptrend, CADJPY currency pair can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 112.00 (which stopped the previous impulse wave 1).
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#Crypto market cap rose 5% in 24 hours to $2.44 trillion, driven by extreme greed. The crypto market had a higher capitalisation for a few days in May and October-December 2021.
The current growth wave can be broken down into two drivers. The first is the demand for #Bitcoin and #Ethereum. They are favoured by large investors concerned about a new wave of problems at US regional banks. This buying interest also applies to gold. Almost exactly a year ago, we saw a similar move that saw the price of BTC rise by a third in a week.
In early trading on Monday, the price of bitcoin was above $65K. That's about 5% off the all-time high, but the cryptocurrency has only been above that level for a few hours, and we've only seen three daily closes above that level.
The other half of the rise is the demand for meme coins, which goes hand in hand with FOMO. Despite the meteoric rise, the market has not yet reached the absurd highs to start talking about reversal risks.
The current growth wave can be broken down into two drivers. The first is the demand for #Bitcoin and #Ethereum. They are favoured by large investors concerned about a new wave of problems at US regional banks. This buying interest also applies to gold. Almost exactly a year ago, we saw a similar move that saw the price of BTC rise by a third in a week.
In early trading on Monday, the price of bitcoin was above $65K. That's about 5% off the all-time high, but the cryptocurrency has only been above that level for a few hours, and we've only seen three daily closes above that level.
The other half of the rise is the demand for meme coins, which goes hand in hand with FOMO. Despite the meteoric rise, the market has not yet reached the absurd highs to start talking about reversal risks.
Did oil find its way up?
Oil is correcting 0.2% on Monday after closing almost 2% higher on Friday and peaking at 3.4%. WTI’s high of $80.3, last seen in November 2023, and a consolidation above $79 would indicate a break of long-term horizontal resistance, something the bulls have failed to do over the past four months.
Friday’s rally allowed a widening gap to the 200-day moving average, which should also be seen as a demonstration of bullish strength. Technically, there is no significant obstacle to oil rallying to the $89-92 area.
Of course, this bullish outlook is only valid if the coming days confirm oil’s ability to grow from current levels, which has not been the case since November.
OPEC+ is openly playing on the Bulls’ side by extending and strengthening (Russian) oil production and export quotas. The production recovery is postponed indefinitely “depending on market conditions”.
Oil is correcting 0.2% on Monday after closing almost 2% higher on Friday and peaking at 3.4%. WTI’s high of $80.3, last seen in November 2023, and a consolidation above $79 would indicate a break of long-term horizontal resistance, something the bulls have failed to do over the past four months.
Friday’s rally allowed a widening gap to the 200-day moving average, which should also be seen as a demonstration of bullish strength. Technically, there is no significant obstacle to oil rallying to the $89-92 area.
Of course, this bullish outlook is only valid if the coming days confirm oil’s ability to grow from current levels, which has not been the case since November.
OPEC+ is openly playing on the Bulls’ side by extending and strengthening (Russian) oil production and export quotas. The production recovery is postponed indefinitely “depending on market conditions”.
This could be a golden opportunity for the US to regain oil market share, but it is in no hurry to do so. Friday’s data showed that the number of oil drillers rose to 506.
That’s the highest since September, but only adding 9 units from the low of 497, which is more stagnation than growth. Just over a year ago - in January 2023 - there were 623 oil and 152 gas-producing wells in operation, compared to 123 now.
Perhaps the price rise will encourage oil producers who are still wary of the green agenda and new sudden price falls. Simply put, America has so far been highly sluggish in playing on the Bears’ side.
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That’s the highest since September, but only adding 9 units from the low of 497, which is more stagnation than growth. Just over a year ago - in January 2023 - there were 623 oil and 152 gas-producing wells in operation, compared to 123 now.
Perhaps the price rise will encourage oil producers who are still wary of the green agenda and new sudden price falls. Simply put, America has so far been highly sluggish in playing on the Bears’ side.
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