#Crypto market capitalisation grew by 2.1% to $1.65 trillion, driven by #Bitcoin (+2.5%), #Ethereum (+2%) and the outperformance of #Solana (+6.4%), Cardano (+6%) and the smaller #Chainlink (+14%).
US statistics remain a crucial driver of growth. Thursday's data release sparked a rally in Bitcoin, which rose almost 3%, taking the price back above $43,000 and above its 50-day moving average. Solana is also just above it, while Ethereum is just below this curve.
The 50-day moving average is an indicator of the medium-term trend. The fact that the major coins seem to be stuck at it suggests that the market has not decided on the trend. This is also indicated by the willingness to react to news, which is important for the stock market. These are all consequences of the lack of an internal driver, which could be breakthrough technologies, halving or regulation.
US statistics remain a crucial driver of growth. Thursday's data release sparked a rally in Bitcoin, which rose almost 3%, taking the price back above $43,000 and above its 50-day moving average. Solana is also just above it, while Ethereum is just below this curve.
The 50-day moving average is an indicator of the medium-term trend. The fact that the major coins seem to be stuck at it suggests that the market has not decided on the trend. This is also indicated by the willingness to react to news, which is important for the stock market. These are all consequences of the lack of an internal driver, which could be breakthrough technologies, halving or regulation.
#WaveAnalysis #SPX
S&P 500 broke key resistance level 4930
Likely to rise to resistance level 5000
S&P 500 index rising inside the minor impulse wave 3 which previously broke above the key resistance level 4930 (which stopped the previous minor impulse wave i at the end of last month).
The breakout of the resistance level 4930 accelerated the active impulse waves 3 and (C).
Given the persistent daily uptrend, S&P 500 index can be expected to rise further to the next round resistance level 5000.
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S&P 500 broke key resistance level 4930
Likely to rise to resistance level 5000
S&P 500 index rising inside the minor impulse wave 3 which previously broke above the key resistance level 4930 (which stopped the previous minor impulse wave i at the end of last month).
The breakout of the resistance level 4930 accelerated the active impulse waves 3 and (C).
Given the persistent daily uptrend, S&P 500 index can be expected to rise further to the next round resistance level 5000.
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#WaveAnalysis #GE
– General Electric broke key resistance level 134.00
– Likely to rise to resistance level 138.90
General Electric under the strong bullish pressure after the price broke above the key resistance level 134.00, which reversed the price at the end of January.
The breakout of the resistance level 134.00 accelerated the active impulse waves v, (v) and 3 of the higher intermediate impulse sequence (5) from October.
Given the clear daily uptrend, General Electric can be expected to rise further to the next strong resistance level 138.90, target price for the completion of the active impulse wave 3.
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– General Electric broke key resistance level 134.00
– Likely to rise to resistance level 138.90
General Electric under the strong bullish pressure after the price broke above the key resistance level 134.00, which reversed the price at the end of January.
The breakout of the resistance level 134.00 accelerated the active impulse waves v, (v) and 3 of the higher intermediate impulse sequence (5) from October.
Given the clear daily uptrend, General Electric can be expected to rise further to the next strong resistance level 138.90, target price for the completion of the active impulse wave 3.
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Buying on dips remains the dominant tactic in the #crypto. Market Cap rose 1.8% in seven days to $1.65 trillion. Previously, the 'what doesn't rise, falls' formula was often applied to cryptos, however, recent attempts to sell off after stabilisation have been met with increased buying.
#Bitcoin remains at $43.0K. At the start of trading on Monday, there was an attempt to push the price lower amid weakness in the Chinese markets.
However, BTCUSD was bought back twice on dips to $42.2K. This solid support significantly weakened the sellers' onslaught, which quickly brought the price back to $43K - the centre of gravity since early December. That's also where the 50-day MA now sits, suggesting that the market is still undecided about direction.
In traditional financial markets, the dollar and equity indices are simultaneously rising, but overall risk appetite is more accurately described as subdued. Exclusive drivers for the crypto market have so far played out, forcing investors to wait for the next signal.
#Bitcoin remains at $43.0K. At the start of trading on Monday, there was an attempt to push the price lower amid weakness in the Chinese markets.
However, BTCUSD was bought back twice on dips to $42.2K. This solid support significantly weakened the sellers' onslaught, which quickly brought the price back to $43K - the centre of gravity since early December. That's also where the 50-day MA now sits, suggesting that the market is still undecided about direction.
In traditional financial markets, the dollar and equity indices are simultaneously rising, but overall risk appetite is more accurately described as subdued. Exclusive drivers for the crypto market have so far played out, forcing investors to wait for the next signal.
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The Dollar Index had a growth impulse twice last week from the same point near 102.8. On Wednesday, it was helped by Powell's transparent hint that he did not expect a decline in March. A strong NFP supported Friday's buying.
Just before the FOMC meeting and the day before the NFP, the US currency sold off on the renewed wave of problems in US regional banks, as it did almost exactly a year ago.
Technically, the 50-day on the Dollar Index acted as a strong support from which heavy buying began. The DXY crossed from below to above its 200-day moving average on Friday on the back of significant news and continued to rise on Monday. This looks like the start of a new uptrend after almost three weeks of consolidation. We should be prepared for the DXY to add another 1.5% to 105.7, a level we haven't seen since early November, before the following inflation report on 13th February.
Just before the FOMC meeting and the day before the NFP, the US currency sold off on the renewed wave of problems in US regional banks, as it did almost exactly a year ago.
Technically, the 50-day on the Dollar Index acted as a strong support from which heavy buying began. The DXY crossed from below to above its 200-day moving average on Friday on the back of significant news and continued to rise on Monday. This looks like the start of a new uptrend after almost three weeks of consolidation. We should be prepared for the DXY to add another 1.5% to 105.7, a level we haven't seen since early November, before the following inflation report on 13th February.
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Friday's US Non-farm Payrolls figures triggered a rally in the dollar. At the beginning of last week, the market also responded to the FOMC's comments with dollar buying. In other words, the two main market drivers were working in the same direction. While the 1.3% rise in the Dollar Index after the NFP is hardly impressive, it could be the start of a trend.
The US economy added 353k jobs in January after 333k in December. The gain was almost double the average analyst forecast. Average hourly earnings rose 0.6% last month after +0.4% previously. Year-to-date gains accelerated to 4.5% from 4.4%, instead of the expected slowdown to 4.1%.
Wage and employment gains are well above long-term growth trends, suggesting that the economy is overheating. Economics textbooks tell us that with such inputs, we should expect inflation to accelerate and monetary policy to tighten. But falling commodity prices have slowed inflation, and central bank officials expect it to slow further.
The US economy added 353k jobs in January after 333k in December. The gain was almost double the average analyst forecast. Average hourly earnings rose 0.6% last month after +0.4% previously. Year-to-date gains accelerated to 4.5% from 4.4%, instead of the expected slowdown to 4.1%.
Wage and employment gains are well above long-term growth trends, suggesting that the economy is overheating. Economics textbooks tell us that with such inputs, we should expect inflation to accelerate and monetary policy to tighten. But falling commodity prices have slowed inflation, and central bank officials expect it to slow further.
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After Friday's statistics, the market is pricing in only a 15% chance of a rate cut on 20 March, in stark contrast to 90% at the end of December and 80% three weeks earlier. Markets are now 95% confident that the Fed will cut rates by no more than 150 basis points, down from 40% on 12 January when markets were almost as confident of two more cuts.
So, robust macro data is combined with the Fed's conviction that rates will be “higher for longer”. The labour market figures have markets anxiously looking for signs of accelerating inflation, but now beyond fuel and food.
So, robust macro data is combined with the Fed's conviction that rates will be “higher for longer”. The labour market figures have markets anxiously looking for signs of accelerating inflation, but now beyond fuel and food.
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#WaveAnalysis
#EURGBP reversed from support level 0.8515
Likely to rise to resistance level 0.8600
EURGBP currency pair recently reversed up from the key support level 0.8515, which has been reversing the pair from the middle of last year.
The support level 0.8515 was strengthened by the lower weekly Bollinger Band.
Given the strength of the support level 0.8515 and the oversold weekly Stochastic, EURGBP currency pair can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 0.8600.
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#EURGBP reversed from support level 0.8515
Likely to rise to resistance level 0.8600
EURGBP currency pair recently reversed up from the key support level 0.8515, which has been reversing the pair from the middle of last year.
The support level 0.8515 was strengthened by the lower weekly Bollinger Band.
Given the strength of the support level 0.8515 and the oversold weekly Stochastic, EURGBP currency pair can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 0.8600.
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#WaveAnalysis
#CADJPY reversed from resistance level 110.30
Likely to fall to support level 109.00
CADJPY currency pair recently reversed down from the key resistance level 110.30, which has been reversing the pair from the middle of November.
The resistance level 110.30 reversed the pair multiple times from last month.
Given the strength of the resistance level 110.30 and the strengthening yen gains, CADJPY currency pair can be expected to fall further to the next support level 109.00.
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#CADJPY reversed from resistance level 110.30
Likely to fall to support level 109.00
CADJPY currency pair recently reversed down from the key resistance level 110.30, which has been reversing the pair from the middle of November.
The resistance level 110.30 reversed the pair multiple times from last month.
Given the strength of the resistance level 110.30 and the strengthening yen gains, CADJPY currency pair can be expected to fall further to the next support level 109.00.
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The #crypto market remains stable while waiting for further signals with the is up 0.4% in 24 hours to $1.64 trillion.
#Bitcoin is trading at $42.7K - virtually unchanged in 24 hours, just 1.4% lower than a week ago and a 1.8% decrease over 30 days. December's stabilisation after growth has been replaced by a January pendulum swing.
Bitcoin's growing correlation with stocks looks like a worrying sign because stocks are in the late stages of a rally, where abnormally sharp moves in some instruments (Meta, Nvidia, Amazon) are juxtaposed with corrections in most securities.
According to CoinShares, crypto funds saw inflows of $708 million last week after outflows of $500 million a week earlier. Investments in Bitcoin rose by $703 million, in Solana by $13 million, and in Ethereum, they decreased by $6 million.
Inflows into recently launched spot ETFs (since 11 January) totalled $7.7bn, offset by outflows from a $6bn futures fund. The total global assets under management are $53 billion, CoinShares said.
#Bitcoin is trading at $42.7K - virtually unchanged in 24 hours, just 1.4% lower than a week ago and a 1.8% decrease over 30 days. December's stabilisation after growth has been replaced by a January pendulum swing.
Bitcoin's growing correlation with stocks looks like a worrying sign because stocks are in the late stages of a rally, where abnormally sharp moves in some instruments (Meta, Nvidia, Amazon) are juxtaposed with corrections in most securities.
According to CoinShares, crypto funds saw inflows of $708 million last week after outflows of $500 million a week earlier. Investments in Bitcoin rose by $703 million, in Solana by $13 million, and in Ethereum, they decreased by $6 million.
Inflows into recently launched spot ETFs (since 11 January) totalled $7.7bn, offset by outflows from a $6bn futures fund. The total global assets under management are $53 billion, CoinShares said.
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The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its cash rate unchanged at 4.35% for the third consecutive meeting. The markets widely expected the decision, but the tone of the accompanying commentary was more hawkish than the market had anticipated, adding to Aussie buying.
The RBA warned that it still hasn't ruled out a rate hike. This is a stricter course than we hear from the Fed and the ECB, who are openly saying that the next step is a cut but prefer to wait for a longer pause than market participants want to see.
The difference between expectation and fact explains the initial speculative jump in AUDUSD of 0.5% to 0.6520. However, it will be difficult for the Aussie to sustain these gains.
Australia's benchmark rate is well below the Fed's 5.25-5.50% range, as well as the Bank of England's 5.25% and even the ECB's 4.5%. Meanwhile, inflation is higher than its listed peers at 4.1% y/y. This combination of factors limits the inflow of capital into the carry trade.
The RBA warned that it still hasn't ruled out a rate hike. This is a stricter course than we hear from the Fed and the ECB, who are openly saying that the next step is a cut but prefer to wait for a longer pause than market participants want to see.
The difference between expectation and fact explains the initial speculative jump in AUDUSD of 0.5% to 0.6520. However, it will be difficult for the Aussie to sustain these gains.
Australia's benchmark rate is well below the Fed's 5.25-5.50% range, as well as the Bank of England's 5.25% and even the ECB's 4.5%. Meanwhile, inflation is higher than its listed peers at 4.1% y/y. This combination of factors limits the inflow of capital into the carry trade.
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Current interest rates are relatively low for Australia. This is only a 10-year high, while rates in the US and Europe are at the high end of previous tightening cycles and at levels not seen for around 20 years.
The only potential driver in this environment could be the difference in expected policy easing. However, we can see that the Fed, the ECB and the Bank of England are in favour of delaying the expected start of easing. In this context, the initial rally in #AUDUSD looks like a profit-taking bounce after an impressive decline since the end of last month.
The AUDUSD fell sharply below its 200-day moving average on the release of the NFP, further indicating bearish dominance. After a relatively long consolidation period, the ultimate downside target now appears to be the 0.6300 area, where the 161.8% level of the nearly three-week decline since the 28th and last October's lows meet.
The only potential driver in this environment could be the difference in expected policy easing. However, we can see that the Fed, the ECB and the Bank of England are in favour of delaying the expected start of easing. In this context, the initial rally in #AUDUSD looks like a profit-taking bounce after an impressive decline since the end of last month.
The AUDUSD fell sharply below its 200-day moving average on the release of the NFP, further indicating bearish dominance. After a relatively long consolidation period, the ultimate downside target now appears to be the 0.6300 area, where the 161.8% level of the nearly three-week decline since the 28th and last October's lows meet.
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Factory orders rose 8.9% in December vs expected 0.1% decline, a rare positive for Germany that the euro chose to ignore. This is the most robust monthly increase since mid-2020’s lockdowns.
In the same month last year, the increase was 2.7%. A positive year-over-year rate has been a rarity over the past two years, as a couple of spikes did not break the overall downtrend. Traders in European markets are likely looking for such an anomaly and ignoring today's upbeat data.
However, we may be seeing the result of a relatively long period of low gas prices, the effects of China's stimulus and the economy's adaptation to inflation shock.
If orders continue to rise next month, it promises to be a turnaround at a time when it seems that only the lazy have failed to talk about the deindustrialisation of the eurozone's largest economy.
We will also be looking at German industrial production figures on Wednesday - will there be similarly strong growth? If so, markets may have rushed to bury the euro.
In the same month last year, the increase was 2.7%. A positive year-over-year rate has been a rarity over the past two years, as a couple of spikes did not break the overall downtrend. Traders in European markets are likely looking for such an anomaly and ignoring today's upbeat data.
However, we may be seeing the result of a relatively long period of low gas prices, the effects of China's stimulus and the economy's adaptation to inflation shock.
If orders continue to rise next month, it promises to be a turnaround at a time when it seems that only the lazy have failed to talk about the deindustrialisation of the eurozone's largest economy.
We will also be looking at German industrial production figures on Wednesday - will there be similarly strong growth? If so, markets may have rushed to bury the euro.
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#WaveAnalysis
#AUDCHF reversed from key support level 0.5620
Likely to rise to resistance level 0.5730
AUDCHF currency pair recently reversed up from the key support level 0.5620, which has been reversing the pair from the middle of August , stopping earlier waves (5),(1) and 1.
The support level 0.5620 was strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band – which started the active wave ii.
Given the strength of the support level 0.5620, AUDCHF currency pair can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 0.5730, top of the previous correction 2.
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#AUDCHF reversed from key support level 0.5620
Likely to rise to resistance level 0.5730
AUDCHF currency pair recently reversed up from the key support level 0.5620, which has been reversing the pair from the middle of August , stopping earlier waves (5),(1) and 1.
The support level 0.5620 was strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band – which started the active wave ii.
Given the strength of the support level 0.5620, AUDCHF currency pair can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 0.5730, top of the previous correction 2.
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#WaveAnalysis #AAPL
#Apple reversed from support level 180.00
Likely to rise to resistance level 197.45
Apple recently reversed up from the strong support level 180.00, which stopped waves A and (b) of the previous ABC correction (2) from the middle of December.
The support level 180.00 was strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band and by the 50% Fibonacci correction of the sharp upward impulse wave (1) from October.
Given the clear daily uptrend, Apple can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 197.45, previous monthly high from July, December and January.
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#Apple reversed from support level 180.00
Likely to rise to resistance level 197.45
Apple recently reversed up from the strong support level 180.00, which stopped waves A and (b) of the previous ABC correction (2) from the middle of December.
The support level 180.00 was strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band and by the 50% Fibonacci correction of the sharp upward impulse wave (1) from October.
Given the clear daily uptrend, Apple can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 197.45, previous monthly high from July, December and January.
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The #crypto market cap remained at $1.65 trillion. Bitcoin spent another day almost unchanged at $42.8K.
#Ethereum was a major growth driver, gaining 1.6% on the day to $2,350 and reversing to the downside as it approached $2,400. This is the same place where we saw a reversal at the end of January and for a month since the beginning of December.
In December, the coin managed to hold above this reversal level for almost a fortnight, but with the current lull in the markets, a temporary pullback to the lower end of the range towards $2,200 looks more likely.
With a loss of 6% over the last seven days, #Solana has moved slightly below its 50-day moving average, raising the question of the sustainability of the recent rally. However, the fall to $85 will be within the correction pattern after the September-December rally.
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#Ethereum was a major growth driver, gaining 1.6% on the day to $2,350 and reversing to the downside as it approached $2,400. This is the same place where we saw a reversal at the end of January and for a month since the beginning of December.
In December, the coin managed to hold above this reversal level for almost a fortnight, but with the current lull in the markets, a temporary pullback to the lower end of the range towards $2,200 looks more likely.
With a loss of 6% over the last seven days, #Solana has moved slightly below its 50-day moving average, raising the question of the sustainability of the recent rally. However, the fall to $85 will be within the correction pattern after the September-December rally.
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The euro is back at 0.8520 against the pound. The pair bounced off this level in June and August last year. Reaching the same level in late January triggered a shake-out, but active declines resumed on Tuesday and Wednesday, and the pair is testing multi-month lows with renewed vigour.
Technically, a break of support at 0.8500 would allow a move towards 0.8250-0.8300 to be considered as a working scenario. A decline of 2.0-2.5% looks like a significant move. However, we may be seeing the beginning of a new global trend.
EURGBP has tried to break above 0.9200 several times since 2016, mainly triggered by the weakness of the pound. We may now be entering a period of euro weakness, like what we saw in 2013-2015. Back then, a wave of pressure on the euro pushed EURGBP towards 0.7000.
Technically, a break of support at 0.8500 would allow a move towards 0.8250-0.8300 to be considered as a working scenario. A decline of 2.0-2.5% looks like a significant move. However, we may be seeing the beginning of a new global trend.
EURGBP has tried to break above 0.9200 several times since 2016, mainly triggered by the weakness of the pound. We may now be entering a period of euro weakness, like what we saw in 2013-2015. Back then, a wave of pressure on the euro pushed EURGBP towards 0.7000.
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The reason for this global reshuffle in a rather dull pair could be the increasing divergence in economic dynamics. With interest rate changes on the agenda, interest is being drawn to the more buoyant economies where the UK has an advantage due to domestic demand.
The level of interest rates and interest rate expectations will also be critical in the coming quarters. The Bank of England's base rate is now 5.25%, compared with 4.5% for the ECB. However, markets expect the Bank of England to cut four times to 4.25% by 2024. The ECB is expected to start its rate-cutting cycle a little earlier and bigger.
While one should be prepared for the EURGBP to return to a lower floor, confirmation in the form of a break of 0.8500 is still needed and is not yet a done deal. There is still a relatively high chance of renewed gains from current levels, as the current multi-month lows may attract buyers into the EUR.
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The level of interest rates and interest rate expectations will also be critical in the coming quarters. The Bank of England's base rate is now 5.25%, compared with 4.5% for the ECB. However, markets expect the Bank of England to cut four times to 4.25% by 2024. The ECB is expected to start its rate-cutting cycle a little earlier and bigger.
While one should be prepared for the EURGBP to return to a lower floor, confirmation in the form of a break of 0.8500 is still needed and is not yet a done deal. There is still a relatively high chance of renewed gains from current levels, as the current multi-month lows may attract buyers into the EUR.
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S&P500’s 5000 may be a long-time milestone
S&P500 futures hit an all-time high of 4990 at the start of the active US session. The index is within reach of the significant round figure of 5000, and there is little doubt that this level will be breached. A much more interesting question is how sustainable this rally will be. And there are a couple of things to look out for.
Firstly, the Nasdaq100 and S&P500 indices are hitting new highs despite the news of regional bank problems. But investors are turning a blind eye, focusing on the success of IT giants and getting the most out of their rallies. There are also early signs of a domino effect, with German bank bonds falling on news of exposure to US commercial property. These are too worrying signs of a repeat of 2008 to ignore.
S&P500 futures hit an all-time high of 4990 at the start of the active US session. The index is within reach of the significant round figure of 5000, and there is little doubt that this level will be breached. A much more interesting question is how sustainable this rally will be. And there are a couple of things to look out for.
Firstly, the Nasdaq100 and S&P500 indices are hitting new highs despite the news of regional bank problems. But investors are turning a blind eye, focusing on the success of IT giants and getting the most out of their rallies. There are also early signs of a domino effect, with German bank bonds falling on news of exposure to US commercial property. These are too worrying signs of a repeat of 2008 to ignore.
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