The origins of German business pessimism can be seen in the dramatic slowdown in China and the trade wars unleashed by Trump as US president. In addition, pessimism in business circles is caused by the forced search for alternative energy sources.
This indicator correlates quite closely with the #EURUSD dynamics, and the heavy recovery is precisely what we are seeing in the most traded currency pair. Looking at the situation from the perspective of its impact on EURUSD, as long as the expectations component remains below the assessment of current conditions, it is worth setting up for a long-term downtrend in the pair, regardless of the indicator's recovery periods.
This indicator correlates quite closely with the #EURUSD dynamics, and the heavy recovery is precisely what we are seeing in the most traded currency pair. Looking at the situation from the perspective of its impact on EURUSD, as long as the expectations component remains below the assessment of current conditions, it is worth setting up for a long-term downtrend in the pair, regardless of the indicator's recovery periods.
#WaveAnalysis
#GBPJPY broke pivotal resistance level 188.00
Likely to rise to resistance level 190.00.
GBPJPY recently broke the pivotal resistance level 188.00 (which stopped the previous intermediate impulse wave (1) in the middle of this month).
The breakout of the resistance level 188.00 accelerated the active intermediate impulse wave (3) of the higher order primary impulse sequence 5 from the start of October.
Given the clear daily uptrend and the continuation of the strong yen sales, GBPJPY can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 190.00.
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#GBPJPY broke pivotal resistance level 188.00
Likely to rise to resistance level 190.00.
GBPJPY recently broke the pivotal resistance level 188.00 (which stopped the previous intermediate impulse wave (1) in the middle of this month).
The breakout of the resistance level 188.00 accelerated the active intermediate impulse wave (3) of the higher order primary impulse sequence 5 from the start of October.
Given the clear daily uptrend and the continuation of the strong yen sales, GBPJPY can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 190.00.
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#WaveAnalysis
#Silver rising inside intermediate impulse wave (3)
Likely to test resistance level 25.00
Silver recently broke the key resistance level 23.50 (which has been reversing the price from
September, as can be seen below).
The breakout of the resistance level 23.50 accelerated the active intermediate impulse wave (3), which then broke the weekly down channel from May.
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#Silver rising inside intermediate impulse wave (3)
Likely to test resistance level 25.00
Silver recently broke the key resistance level 23.50 (which has been reversing the price from
September, as can be seen below).
The breakout of the resistance level 23.50 accelerated the active intermediate impulse wave (3), which then broke the weekly down channel from May.
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The crypto market cap was near $1.42 trillion on Monday morning. Failure to build on the growth caused moderate pressure on prices.
#Bitcoin exchange rate was pulling back to $37.0K, having remained within an uptrend for over a month now, with the lower boundary now at $36.6K and the upper boundary at $38.3K. Only a decline below the lower boundary will question the sustainability of the uptrend. Until then, the prevalence of buying on declines in the major cryptocurrencies is very likely.
As a result of another recalculation, Bitcoin mining difficulty increased by 5%. The index reached an all-time high at 67.96 T. According to CryptoQuant data, selling pressure from miners is at its lowest level since 2017.
#Ethereum failed to hold above $2100 levels for the third time this year. Before that, there were attempts in April and early November. The price rolled back to $2050, which does not look scary yet but sets up for increased pressure in the short term.
#Bitcoin exchange rate was pulling back to $37.0K, having remained within an uptrend for over a month now, with the lower boundary now at $36.6K and the upper boundary at $38.3K. Only a decline below the lower boundary will question the sustainability of the uptrend. Until then, the prevalence of buying on declines in the major cryptocurrencies is very likely.
As a result of another recalculation, Bitcoin mining difficulty increased by 5%. The index reached an all-time high at 67.96 T. According to CryptoQuant data, selling pressure from miners is at its lowest level since 2017.
#Ethereum failed to hold above $2100 levels for the third time this year. Before that, there were attempts in April and early November. The price rolled back to $2050, which does not look scary yet but sets up for increased pressure in the short term.
#Gold touched six-month highs, moving above $2010. Over the past three years, the price has climbed above $2000 several times but failed to hold there for a long.
Technically, gold started the week with a dash into thin air territory as the price went above the previous local highs soon after the opening bell. This is an immaculate execution of the Fibonacci pattern, where the initial momentum from $1810 to $2010 corrected to 61.8% of that move, which also coincided with a touch of the 200-day average at $1935. The breakout to new highs formally confirms a bullish scenario with a potential move to 161.8% at $2130.
Gold will need strong tailwinds to realise such a bullish scenario. And there could be problems with that. A robust US economy and a worrisome geopolitical environment have kept interest in gold alive, as has pressure in US debt markets. For investors, government bonds look more attractive than gold because they yield, and at one point, they were down 50% from their peak.
Technically, gold started the week with a dash into thin air territory as the price went above the previous local highs soon after the opening bell. This is an immaculate execution of the Fibonacci pattern, where the initial momentum from $1810 to $2010 corrected to 61.8% of that move, which also coincided with a touch of the 200-day average at $1935. The breakout to new highs formally confirms a bullish scenario with a potential move to 161.8% at $2130.
Gold will need strong tailwinds to realise such a bullish scenario. And there could be problems with that. A robust US economy and a worrisome geopolitical environment have kept interest in gold alive, as has pressure in US debt markets. For investors, government bonds look more attractive than gold because they yield, and at one point, they were down 50% from their peak.
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The interest in gold at high levels in recent years may also have been fuelled by the interest of China or other emerging markets to diversify their reserves away from the dollar. Whether this was actual demand or just speculation to that effect is not essential. The big question now is whether China or Saudi Arabia will remain net buyers of gold amid shrinking trade surpluses or move into active gold sales to support the growth of their economies.
The long-term picture also points to the formation of a triple top in gold – a reversal pattern. However, its legitimacy is now in doubt amid the rapid upward reversal since the beginning of October.
In any case, the dynamics of gold in the coming days promise to be trend-defining for many months ahead, as we may see either a breakout of long-term and psychologically important resistance or the beginning of a multi-month or even multi-year bear market.
The long-term picture also points to the formation of a triple top in gold – a reversal pattern. However, its legitimacy is now in doubt amid the rapid upward reversal since the beginning of October.
In any case, the dynamics of gold in the coming days promise to be trend-defining for many months ahead, as we may see either a breakout of long-term and psychologically important resistance or the beginning of a multi-month or even multi-year bear market.
📈 Pro News Update!
💵 Dollar's intriguing November journey
💰Gold's ongoing challenges,
📊 Nasdaq100's unexpected resilience,
🛢️Oil's OPEC dynamics and
🌐Crypto's corridor of volatility.
📰Get the insights that matter in this week's market recap with Pro News
Stay tuned! 📰🔥
https://youtu.be/5pJ76I7-dpA
💵 Dollar's intriguing November journey
💰Gold's ongoing challenges,
📊 Nasdaq100's unexpected resilience,
🛢️Oil's OPEC dynamics and
🌐Crypto's corridor of volatility.
📰Get the insights that matter in this week's market recap with Pro News
Stay tuned! 📰🔥
https://youtu.be/5pJ76I7-dpA
YouTube
Weekly Pro Analysis | Dollar's November Rollercoaster, Gold's Struggles, and Oil's OPEC Drama
Join us for a deep dive into this week's market action! Explore the Dollar's intriguing November journey, Gold's ongoing challenges, Nasdaq100's unexpected resilience, Oil's OPEC dynamics, and Crypto's corridor of volatility. Get the insights that matter…
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#WaveAnalysis
#EURGBP reversed from support level 0.8660
Likely to rise to resistance level 0.8760
EURGBP currency pair recently reversed up from the key support level 0.8660 (which stopped the previous minor correction ii, as can be seen below).
The support level 0.8660 was strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band and by the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from August.
EURGBP currency pair can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 0.8760, which stopped the previous minor correction ii.
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#EURGBP reversed from support level 0.8660
Likely to rise to resistance level 0.8760
EURGBP currency pair recently reversed up from the key support level 0.8660 (which stopped the previous minor correction ii, as can be seen below).
The support level 0.8660 was strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band and by the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from August.
EURGBP currency pair can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 0.8760, which stopped the previous minor correction ii.
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#WaveAnalysis
#Gold broke key resistance level 2000.00
Likely to rise to resistance level 2050.00
Gold recently broke the key resistance level 2000.00 (which stopped the previous waves (1), B and 1, as can be seen below).
The breakout of the resistance level 2000.00 continues the active minor impulse wave 3 which belongs to wave (3) from the start of this month.
Gold can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 2050.00 (former strong resistance from April and May) – from where the downward correction is likely.
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#Gold broke key resistance level 2000.00
Likely to rise to resistance level 2050.00
Gold recently broke the key resistance level 2000.00 (which stopped the previous waves (1), B and 1, as can be seen below).
The breakout of the resistance level 2000.00 continues the active minor impulse wave 3 which belongs to wave (3) from the start of this month.
Gold can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 2050.00 (former strong resistance from April and May) – from where the downward correction is likely.
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The crypto market has lost 1.5% in the last 24 hours to capitalisation of $1.42 trillion.
Traditional markets have also seen a slight pullback from the last week’s peak. Investors appear to be looking to lock in profits after the booming gains in October and November. The rally in crypto was stronger, so the correction is deeper.
Bitcoin was down 0.5% overnight to $37.0K, approaching the lower boundary of one month's ascending channel. A classic upside correction from the October lows suggests a pullback to $34K. Higher turning points could be the $36.7K area (recent local lows) and $35.6K (76.4% support and last week's low).
According to CoinShares data, crypto fund investments rose sharply last week, by $346 million at once; significant inflows continued for the fifth week in a row and the ninth week overall. Bitcoin investments increased by $312 million, Ethereum by $34 million, and Solana by $3.5 million.
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Traditional markets have also seen a slight pullback from the last week’s peak. Investors appear to be looking to lock in profits after the booming gains in October and November. The rally in crypto was stronger, so the correction is deeper.
Bitcoin was down 0.5% overnight to $37.0K, approaching the lower boundary of one month's ascending channel. A classic upside correction from the October lows suggests a pullback to $34K. Higher turning points could be the $36.7K area (recent local lows) and $35.6K (76.4% support and last week's low).
According to CoinShares data, crypto fund investments rose sharply last week, by $346 million at once; significant inflows continued for the fifth week in a row and the ninth week overall. Bitcoin investments increased by $312 million, Ethereum by $34 million, and Solana by $3.5 million.
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The US new home sales report came out weak on several key aspects. Sales fell 5.6% m/m to 679K vs 719K a month earlier (revised from 759K). The median price of a home sold in October was 409.3K, down 3% from 422.3K a month earlier and 17.6% below the peak of 496.8K set precisely one year ago.
Previously, new home sales had been on a moderate upward trend since last July, contrary to a drop in existing home sales. Households were holding off on secondary home sales, unwilling to switch from mortgages at the low rates of the past few years. In addition, new housing was becoming a bit more modest, given falling home prices, contrary to overall inflation.
Previously, new home sales had been on a moderate upward trend since last July, contrary to a drop in existing home sales. Households were holding off on secondary home sales, unwilling to switch from mortgages at the low rates of the past few years. In addition, new housing was becoming a bit more modest, given falling home prices, contrary to overall inflation.
The latest report puts the focus on the health of the US banking sector with redoubled attention, raising the spectre of a mortgage crisis and later a global world financial crisis.
In theory, weakness in the US housing sector brings the point of interest rate cuts closer.
But in practice, such a reason for policy easing cannot be considered favourable for markets, as it would be a reaction to a significant drop in consumer activity and tighter financial conditions - an obvious bearish sign for equities and other commodities.
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In theory, weakness in the US housing sector brings the point of interest rate cuts closer.
But in practice, such a reason for policy easing cannot be considered favourable for markets, as it would be a reaction to a significant drop in consumer activity and tighter financial conditions - an obvious bearish sign for equities and other commodities.
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The FX market is temporarily looking past the weakness in Euro area data
Worrying news on the Eurozone economy continues to come in, although this is not hurting the single currency so far, which is trading at fifteen-week highs at 1.0950.
Germany's business climate index rose from -28.3 to -27.8 in December but remains deeply negative. According to the report, Germans expect their incomes to decline slightly. Their propensity to spend is picking up slightly due to entrenched inflation expectations, but they struggle to reflect a rebound in consumer activity.
Worrying news on the Eurozone economy continues to come in, although this is not hurting the single currency so far, which is trading at fifteen-week highs at 1.0950.
Germany's business climate index rose from -28.3 to -27.8 in December but remains deeply negative. According to the report, Germans expect their incomes to decline slightly. Their propensity to spend is picking up slightly due to entrenched inflation expectations, but they struggle to reflect a rebound in consumer activity.
A separate report from the ECB noted a slowdown in loan growth in the eurozone to 0.6% y/y - the slowest in 8 years. However, the worst is apparently ahead for the indicator, judging by the dynamics of monetary aggregates. Trends in monetary aggregates M1-M3 are generally more than a year ahead of credit trends.
Monetary aggregate M1 is now 10% lower than a year earlier. It has been in negative territory so far this year. M3 in October was 1% lower than a year ago. In both cases, it is stabilising near historic lows, reflecting tightening financial conditions.
EURUSD's strength is now driven by high hopes for a Fed rate cut soon, but the weakness in Eurozone indicators should set the mood that a policy change from the ECB could be earlier and deeper, not saying that the US already has higher rates. This is a long-term negative for the single currency. However, markets prefer to play down US policy changes first.
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Monetary aggregate M1 is now 10% lower than a year earlier. It has been in negative territory so far this year. M3 in October was 1% lower than a year ago. In both cases, it is stabilising near historic lows, reflecting tightening financial conditions.
EURUSD's strength is now driven by high hopes for a Fed rate cut soon, but the weakness in Eurozone indicators should set the mood that a policy change from the ECB could be earlier and deeper, not saying that the US already has higher rates. This is a long-term negative for the single currency. However, markets prefer to play down US policy changes first.
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VIX drop: stocks collapse or boring growth ahead?
Financial market volatility has plunged to its lowest level in almost four years, according to the VIX index. This so-called "fear index" fell to 12.45 on Friday, the lowest level since January 2020. Such low levels could be both a sign of the market entering a smooth bullish trend or a lull before a sharp decline.
Low VIX values indicate weak expected market volatility in the coming months.
Sometimes, such market signals should be perceived as overconfidence by investors. And then, the calm is followed by a storm wave, knocking down everything in its path. The peak of overconfidence is usually followed by bitter disappointment in the form of a painful sell-off in stocks.
Financial market volatility has plunged to its lowest level in almost four years, according to the VIX index. This so-called "fear index" fell to 12.45 on Friday, the lowest level since January 2020. Such low levels could be both a sign of the market entering a smooth bullish trend or a lull before a sharp decline.
Low VIX values indicate weak expected market volatility in the coming months.
Sometimes, such market signals should be perceived as overconfidence by investors. And then, the calm is followed by a storm wave, knocking down everything in its path. The peak of overconfidence is usually followed by bitter disappointment in the form of a painful sell-off in stocks.
This can be a period of quiet growth in stocks. And while bears should be prepared for a reversal in stocks, they should not be in a hurry to make a quick bet on it because a rally in stocks can take an indefinitely long time while the VIX is at such low levels.
The VIX has spent most of June and July this year in the range between 13 and 14, and the S&P500 has added nearly 7.5% during that time. The S&P500 gained twice as much between October 2019 and January 2020, when we saw similar or lower VIX levels. Moreover, the VIX spent all of 2017 and early 2018 mostly below 12, dipping to 9.5 at times, and this was also a period of smooth, persistent 27% gains for the S&P500.
Thus, stocks are now close to a point where there could be both a painful switch into risk-off mode and the start of a long and boring uptrend for speculators.
In the short term, we see more bearish signals for the market as the last upside momentum in equities was extremely sharp. It looks like the market driver was closing shorts rather than building long positions. A similar amplitude rally in equities has been a sign of a reversal to growth in recent years with monetary easing, but now the pause is more of what the markets are hoping for, but the Fed is not confirming those hopes.
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The VIX has spent most of June and July this year in the range between 13 and 14, and the S&P500 has added nearly 7.5% during that time. The S&P500 gained twice as much between October 2019 and January 2020, when we saw similar or lower VIX levels. Moreover, the VIX spent all of 2017 and early 2018 mostly below 12, dipping to 9.5 at times, and this was also a period of smooth, persistent 27% gains for the S&P500.
Thus, stocks are now close to a point where there could be both a painful switch into risk-off mode and the start of a long and boring uptrend for speculators.
In the short term, we see more bearish signals for the market as the last upside momentum in equities was extremely sharp. It looks like the market driver was closing shorts rather than building long positions. A similar amplitude rally in equities has been a sign of a reversal to growth in recent years with monetary easing, but now the pause is more of what the markets are hoping for, but the Fed is not confirming those hopes.
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#WaveAnalysis
#USDCHF broke key support level 0.8900
Likely to fall to support level 0.8700
USDCHF currency pair continues to fall inside the minor impulse wave 3, which previously broke the key support level 0.8900, coinciding with the 50% Fibonacci correction of the upward wave (B) from the end of July.
The active impulse wave 3 belongs to the higher order downward impulse wave C from the start of October.
USDCHF currency pair can be expected to fall further to the next support level 0.8700, previous monthly low from August.
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#USDCHF broke key support level 0.8900
Likely to fall to support level 0.8700
USDCHF currency pair continues to fall inside the minor impulse wave 3, which previously broke the key support level 0.8900, coinciding with the 50% Fibonacci correction of the upward wave (B) from the end of July.
The active impulse wave 3 belongs to the higher order downward impulse wave C from the start of October.
USDCHF currency pair can be expected to fall further to the next support level 0.8700, previous monthly low from August.
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#WaveAnalysis
#EURUSD broke resistance level 1.0950
Likely to rise to resistance level 1.1065
EURUSD currency pair recently broke the key resistance level 1.0950, intersecting with the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from July.
The breakout of the resistance level 1.0950 should further increase the bullish pressure on this currency pair.
Given the continuation of the strong US dollar sales seen today, EURUSD currency pair can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 1.1065, former top of wave (2) from August.
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#EURUSD broke resistance level 1.0950
Likely to rise to resistance level 1.1065
EURUSD currency pair recently broke the key resistance level 1.0950, intersecting with the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from July.
The breakout of the resistance level 1.0950 should further increase the bullish pressure on this currency pair.
Given the continuation of the strong US dollar sales seen today, EURUSD currency pair can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 1.1065, former top of wave (2) from August.
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The crypto market added 2.4% in 24 hours to $1.43 trillion and went back to test highs since May 2022. Bitcoin added 3% during this time, #Ethereum 2.75%, and #Solana was the top performer among the major coins, adding 8.4%. #Toncoin was on a back foot with its 0.4% gain.
#Bitcoin has been floundering inside the upward range for more than five weeks now. On Monday, the price reversed to the upside from the lower boundary at $36.7K. On Tuesday evening, Bitcoin's price briefly exceeded $38.4K but pulled back down after failing to find solid ground to accelerate gains.
The positive sentiment extends well beyond the first cryptocurrency, as altcoins reversed to growth in a broad front on Tuesday. This could be investors' reaction to a weakening dollar on expectations of an imminent Fed interest rate cut.
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#Bitcoin has been floundering inside the upward range for more than five weeks now. On Monday, the price reversed to the upside from the lower boundary at $36.7K. On Tuesday evening, Bitcoin's price briefly exceeded $38.4K but pulled back down after failing to find solid ground to accelerate gains.
The positive sentiment extends well beyond the first cryptocurrency, as altcoins reversed to growth in a broad front on Tuesday. This could be investors' reaction to a weakening dollar on expectations of an imminent Fed interest rate cut.
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NZD is tired of flying
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand left its key rate unchanged at 5.5%, the highest in 15 years, but on hold for six months now. The decision was in line with market expectations. However, the NZDUSD rallied, adding over 1.2% at one point and touching 0.6200, a 4-month high. The buying impulse came from the CB’s vocal preparedness to raise rates if needed. The RBNZ’s rate forecasts became more hawkish, confirming a willingness to act. The committee revised its August forecast expecting a higher rate in a year than it does now, fitting in with the latest Central Bank’s mantra “higher for longer”.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand left its key rate unchanged at 5.5%, the highest in 15 years, but on hold for six months now. The decision was in line with market expectations. However, the NZDUSD rallied, adding over 1.2% at one point and touching 0.6200, a 4-month high. The buying impulse came from the CB’s vocal preparedness to raise rates if needed. The RBNZ’s rate forecasts became more hawkish, confirming a willingness to act. The committee revised its August forecast expecting a higher rate in a year than it does now, fitting in with the latest Central Bank’s mantra “higher for longer”.
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