#Bitcoin bounces around in an ascending channel, hitting its three-week upper resistance of $37.8K on Wednesday evening. An intensifying sell-off thwarts attempts to heat the price, but the pullbacks have become less deep over the past three weeks, suggesting the building up of bullish sentiment. At the same time, this relative stabilisation in the range removes local overbought conditions, allowing to stick to gains of the previous advance. A break of resistance could see a quick rise above $40K.
#XRP received buyers' support on Wednesday after touching the 50-day moving average, giving it a chance to stabilise after a pullback of more than 20% from its early November peak.
However, the buying of #Ethereum on its dip below $2,000 on Wednesday was more notable. Active buying in the world's second most-capitalised coin took the price back to $2060, near the top of the range since the 10th of November.
#XRP received buyers' support on Wednesday after touching the 50-day moving average, giving it a chance to stabilise after a pullback of more than 20% from its early November peak.
However, the buying of #Ethereum on its dip below $2,000 on Wednesday was more notable. Active buying in the world's second most-capitalised coin took the price back to $2060, near the top of the range since the 10th of November.
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The last two weeks have been hectic for oil traders, who have had a rich extract of news and data from many directions, fuelling volatility but leaving the price at the same level as a fortnight ago.
The fresh weekly EIA report marked another week of impressive growth in commercial inventories. They rose by 8.7m barrels for the week and 28.3m in five weeks of steady growth, and the current level is 3.8% higher than the same week a year ago. Meanwhile, the production rate of 13.2m bpd has been maintained for seven weeks. This appears sufficient for a small surplus, allowing to gradually rebuild inventories that have fallen over the past two years.
The fresh weekly EIA report marked another week of impressive growth in commercial inventories. They rose by 8.7m barrels for the week and 28.3m in five weeks of steady growth, and the current level is 3.8% higher than the same week a year ago. Meanwhile, the production rate of 13.2m bpd has been maintained for seven weeks. This appears sufficient for a small surplus, allowing to gradually rebuild inventories that have fallen over the past two years.
From a peak at the end of September, oil lost over 20% to last week's lows on demand concerns and reports that OPEC+ supply was higher than previously estimated.
As a result of this downturn, the price of oil has returned to sensitive territory for the cartel, which yesterday announced the postponement of its scheduled meeting from 26th to 30th November. No changes to quotas were expected from the summit and monitoring committee meeting, but the postponement has raised the issue of solid opposition among OPEC members.
News of the postponement initially wiped over 5% off the intraday price, with WTI dropping to below $74.0 and Brent to $78.5 at one point, but prices soon returned to $76.5 and $81.5, respectively. The postponement of the meeting opens up the possibility that Saudi Arabia could push through voluntary cuts from other cartel members to reverse the trend.
As a result of this downturn, the price of oil has returned to sensitive territory for the cartel, which yesterday announced the postponement of its scheduled meeting from 26th to 30th November. No changes to quotas were expected from the summit and monitoring committee meeting, but the postponement has raised the issue of solid opposition among OPEC members.
News of the postponement initially wiped over 5% off the intraday price, with WTI dropping to below $74.0 and Brent to $78.5 at one point, but prices soon returned to $76.5 and $81.5, respectively. The postponement of the meeting opens up the possibility that Saudi Arabia could push through voluntary cuts from other cartel members to reverse the trend.
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Technical indicators also point to a battle for the trend in recent days.
The Bears have the 200-day average on their side. In early November, oil fell well below it. Two attempts to get back above it were met with waves of selling in WTI and Brent.
On the Bulls' side, the downward momentum is waning. The Relative Strength Index on the daily chart shows a series of higher local lows despite lower local price lows. This divergence suggests that the bearish momentum has run its course, and the potential for a rebound or even a reversal to growth is building.
A sign of a reversal in the uptrend would be the ability of the price to return consistently above its 200-day moving average, which is close to $78 for WTI and $82 for Brent. However, it is prudent to remain on the sidelines until we get signals from OPEC+ officials, of which there could be many in the coming days.
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The Bears have the 200-day average on their side. In early November, oil fell well below it. Two attempts to get back above it were met with waves of selling in WTI and Brent.
On the Bulls' side, the downward momentum is waning. The Relative Strength Index on the daily chart shows a series of higher local lows despite lower local price lows. This divergence suggests that the bearish momentum has run its course, and the potential for a rebound or even a reversal to growth is building.
A sign of a reversal in the uptrend would be the ability of the price to return consistently above its 200-day moving average, which is close to $78 for WTI and $82 for Brent. However, it is prudent to remain on the sidelines until we get signals from OPEC+ officials, of which there could be many in the coming days.
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#WaveAnalysis #DJI
Dow Jones broke key resistance level 35000.
Likely to rise to resistance level 3565.00
Dow Jones index recently broke the key resistance level 35000.00 (which has been reversing the price from the start of September).
The breakout of the resistance level 35000.00 accelerated the active minor impulse wave 5 of the higher order impulse wave (C) from the end of October.
Given the prevailing risk on sentiment seen across the equity markets today, Dow Jones index can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 3565.00 (former multi-month high from the end of July).
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Dow Jones broke key resistance level 35000.
Likely to rise to resistance level 3565.00
Dow Jones index recently broke the key resistance level 35000.00 (which has been reversing the price from the start of September).
The breakout of the resistance level 35000.00 accelerated the active minor impulse wave 5 of the higher order impulse wave (C) from the end of October.
Given the prevailing risk on sentiment seen across the equity markets today, Dow Jones index can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 3565.00 (former multi-month high from the end of July).
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#WaveAnalysis
#EURJPY reversed from support level 161.35
Likely to rise to resistance level 164.00
EURJPY currency pair recently reversed up from the key support level 161.35, coinciding with the 20-day moving average support trendline of the daily up channel from October and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from August.
The upward reversal from the support level 161.35 stopped the earlier minor correction 2 from the middle of November.
Given the clear daily uptrend, EURJPY currency pair can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 164.00, which stopped the previous impulse wave 1.
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#EURJPY reversed from support level 161.35
Likely to rise to resistance level 164.00
EURJPY currency pair recently reversed up from the key support level 161.35, coinciding with the 20-day moving average support trendline of the daily up channel from October and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from August.
The upward reversal from the support level 161.35 stopped the earlier minor correction 2 from the middle of November.
Given the clear daily uptrend, EURJPY currency pair can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 164.00, which stopped the previous impulse wave 1.
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The crypto market continues to move higher, adding another 0.8% overnight to $1.44 trillion as Greed stays as a major driver right now, according to a popular sentiment indicator.
Friday morning saw a fresh test of the $38K level for #Bitcoin. It failed, but we continue to see the persistence of growth attempts and less and less deep retreats from local peaks. The dynamics of November lead us to believe that the chances of the price rising by another 2.5K and exceeding the $40K level are higher than the chances of it falling by the same amount to $35K.
#Ethereum crossed the $2100 level, returning to the peak set on 10 November. There was a classic Fibonacci retracement with a 61.8% pullback from the initial rally. Breaking through the $2135 level will set up the main scenario of a 161.8% growth, which in this case is close to $2500.
Friday morning saw a fresh test of the $38K level for #Bitcoin. It failed, but we continue to see the persistence of growth attempts and less and less deep retreats from local peaks. The dynamics of November lead us to believe that the chances of the price rising by another 2.5K and exceeding the $40K level are higher than the chances of it falling by the same amount to $35K.
#Ethereum crossed the $2100 level, returning to the peak set on 10 November. There was a classic Fibonacci retracement with a 61.8% pullback from the initial rally. Breaking through the $2135 level will set up the main scenario of a 161.8% growth, which in this case is close to $2500.
German business climate: a pessimistic recovery
German Ifo Business Climate Index rose for the third consecutive month. Still, this recovery is weaker than expected, putting the Euro in a more vulnerable position against the Pound and Canadian Dollar, where the latest data exceeded expectations.
Germany's business climate indicator rose to 87.3 from 86.9 a month earlier and 85.8 in August, which was the local bottom of the indicator.
The closest reversal to the current one is shown in the main index in early 2009, with the indicator recovering from slightly lower levels. However, there is a significant difference: back then, the business expectations component pulled the index upwards, but from 2017 to the present, expectations were often below current estimates.
German Ifo Business Climate Index rose for the third consecutive month. Still, this recovery is weaker than expected, putting the Euro in a more vulnerable position against the Pound and Canadian Dollar, where the latest data exceeded expectations.
Germany's business climate indicator rose to 87.3 from 86.9 a month earlier and 85.8 in August, which was the local bottom of the indicator.
The closest reversal to the current one is shown in the main index in early 2009, with the indicator recovering from slightly lower levels. However, there is a significant difference: back then, the business expectations component pulled the index upwards, but from 2017 to the present, expectations were often below current estimates.
The origins of German business pessimism can be seen in the dramatic slowdown in China and the trade wars unleashed by Trump as US president. In addition, pessimism in business circles is caused by the forced search for alternative energy sources.
This indicator correlates quite closely with the #EURUSD dynamics, and the heavy recovery is precisely what we are seeing in the most traded currency pair. Looking at the situation from the perspective of its impact on EURUSD, as long as the expectations component remains below the assessment of current conditions, it is worth setting up for a long-term downtrend in the pair, regardless of the indicator's recovery periods.
This indicator correlates quite closely with the #EURUSD dynamics, and the heavy recovery is precisely what we are seeing in the most traded currency pair. Looking at the situation from the perspective of its impact on EURUSD, as long as the expectations component remains below the assessment of current conditions, it is worth setting up for a long-term downtrend in the pair, regardless of the indicator's recovery periods.
#WaveAnalysis
#GBPJPY broke pivotal resistance level 188.00
Likely to rise to resistance level 190.00.
GBPJPY recently broke the pivotal resistance level 188.00 (which stopped the previous intermediate impulse wave (1) in the middle of this month).
The breakout of the resistance level 188.00 accelerated the active intermediate impulse wave (3) of the higher order primary impulse sequence 5 from the start of October.
Given the clear daily uptrend and the continuation of the strong yen sales, GBPJPY can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 190.00.
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#GBPJPY broke pivotal resistance level 188.00
Likely to rise to resistance level 190.00.
GBPJPY recently broke the pivotal resistance level 188.00 (which stopped the previous intermediate impulse wave (1) in the middle of this month).
The breakout of the resistance level 188.00 accelerated the active intermediate impulse wave (3) of the higher order primary impulse sequence 5 from the start of October.
Given the clear daily uptrend and the continuation of the strong yen sales, GBPJPY can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 190.00.
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#WaveAnalysis
#Silver rising inside intermediate impulse wave (3)
Likely to test resistance level 25.00
Silver recently broke the key resistance level 23.50 (which has been reversing the price from
September, as can be seen below).
The breakout of the resistance level 23.50 accelerated the active intermediate impulse wave (3), which then broke the weekly down channel from May.
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#Silver rising inside intermediate impulse wave (3)
Likely to test resistance level 25.00
Silver recently broke the key resistance level 23.50 (which has been reversing the price from
September, as can be seen below).
The breakout of the resistance level 23.50 accelerated the active intermediate impulse wave (3), which then broke the weekly down channel from May.
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The crypto market cap was near $1.42 trillion on Monday morning. Failure to build on the growth caused moderate pressure on prices.
#Bitcoin exchange rate was pulling back to $37.0K, having remained within an uptrend for over a month now, with the lower boundary now at $36.6K and the upper boundary at $38.3K. Only a decline below the lower boundary will question the sustainability of the uptrend. Until then, the prevalence of buying on declines in the major cryptocurrencies is very likely.
As a result of another recalculation, Bitcoin mining difficulty increased by 5%. The index reached an all-time high at 67.96 T. According to CryptoQuant data, selling pressure from miners is at its lowest level since 2017.
#Ethereum failed to hold above $2100 levels for the third time this year. Before that, there were attempts in April and early November. The price rolled back to $2050, which does not look scary yet but sets up for increased pressure in the short term.
#Bitcoin exchange rate was pulling back to $37.0K, having remained within an uptrend for over a month now, with the lower boundary now at $36.6K and the upper boundary at $38.3K. Only a decline below the lower boundary will question the sustainability of the uptrend. Until then, the prevalence of buying on declines in the major cryptocurrencies is very likely.
As a result of another recalculation, Bitcoin mining difficulty increased by 5%. The index reached an all-time high at 67.96 T. According to CryptoQuant data, selling pressure from miners is at its lowest level since 2017.
#Ethereum failed to hold above $2100 levels for the third time this year. Before that, there were attempts in April and early November. The price rolled back to $2050, which does not look scary yet but sets up for increased pressure in the short term.
#Gold touched six-month highs, moving above $2010. Over the past three years, the price has climbed above $2000 several times but failed to hold there for a long.
Technically, gold started the week with a dash into thin air territory as the price went above the previous local highs soon after the opening bell. This is an immaculate execution of the Fibonacci pattern, where the initial momentum from $1810 to $2010 corrected to 61.8% of that move, which also coincided with a touch of the 200-day average at $1935. The breakout to new highs formally confirms a bullish scenario with a potential move to 161.8% at $2130.
Gold will need strong tailwinds to realise such a bullish scenario. And there could be problems with that. A robust US economy and a worrisome geopolitical environment have kept interest in gold alive, as has pressure in US debt markets. For investors, government bonds look more attractive than gold because they yield, and at one point, they were down 50% from their peak.
Technically, gold started the week with a dash into thin air territory as the price went above the previous local highs soon after the opening bell. This is an immaculate execution of the Fibonacci pattern, where the initial momentum from $1810 to $2010 corrected to 61.8% of that move, which also coincided with a touch of the 200-day average at $1935. The breakout to new highs formally confirms a bullish scenario with a potential move to 161.8% at $2130.
Gold will need strong tailwinds to realise such a bullish scenario. And there could be problems with that. A robust US economy and a worrisome geopolitical environment have kept interest in gold alive, as has pressure in US debt markets. For investors, government bonds look more attractive than gold because they yield, and at one point, they were down 50% from their peak.
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The interest in gold at high levels in recent years may also have been fuelled by the interest of China or other emerging markets to diversify their reserves away from the dollar. Whether this was actual demand or just speculation to that effect is not essential. The big question now is whether China or Saudi Arabia will remain net buyers of gold amid shrinking trade surpluses or move into active gold sales to support the growth of their economies.
The long-term picture also points to the formation of a triple top in gold – a reversal pattern. However, its legitimacy is now in doubt amid the rapid upward reversal since the beginning of October.
In any case, the dynamics of gold in the coming days promise to be trend-defining for many months ahead, as we may see either a breakout of long-term and psychologically important resistance or the beginning of a multi-month or even multi-year bear market.
The long-term picture also points to the formation of a triple top in gold – a reversal pattern. However, its legitimacy is now in doubt amid the rapid upward reversal since the beginning of October.
In any case, the dynamics of gold in the coming days promise to be trend-defining for many months ahead, as we may see either a breakout of long-term and psychologically important resistance or the beginning of a multi-month or even multi-year bear market.
📈 Pro News Update!
💵 Dollar's intriguing November journey
💰Gold's ongoing challenges,
📊 Nasdaq100's unexpected resilience,
🛢️Oil's OPEC dynamics and
🌐Crypto's corridor of volatility.
📰Get the insights that matter in this week's market recap with Pro News
Stay tuned! 📰🔥
https://youtu.be/5pJ76I7-dpA
💵 Dollar's intriguing November journey
💰Gold's ongoing challenges,
📊 Nasdaq100's unexpected resilience,
🛢️Oil's OPEC dynamics and
🌐Crypto's corridor of volatility.
📰Get the insights that matter in this week's market recap with Pro News
Stay tuned! 📰🔥
https://youtu.be/5pJ76I7-dpA
YouTube
Weekly Pro Analysis | Dollar's November Rollercoaster, Gold's Struggles, and Oil's OPEC Drama
Join us for a deep dive into this week's market action! Explore the Dollar's intriguing November journey, Gold's ongoing challenges, Nasdaq100's unexpected resilience, Oil's OPEC dynamics, and Crypto's corridor of volatility. Get the insights that matter…
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#WaveAnalysis
#EURGBP reversed from support level 0.8660
Likely to rise to resistance level 0.8760
EURGBP currency pair recently reversed up from the key support level 0.8660 (which stopped the previous minor correction ii, as can be seen below).
The support level 0.8660 was strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band and by the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from August.
EURGBP currency pair can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 0.8760, which stopped the previous minor correction ii.
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#EURGBP reversed from support level 0.8660
Likely to rise to resistance level 0.8760
EURGBP currency pair recently reversed up from the key support level 0.8660 (which stopped the previous minor correction ii, as can be seen below).
The support level 0.8660 was strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band and by the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from August.
EURGBP currency pair can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 0.8760, which stopped the previous minor correction ii.
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#WaveAnalysis
#Gold broke key resistance level 2000.00
Likely to rise to resistance level 2050.00
Gold recently broke the key resistance level 2000.00 (which stopped the previous waves (1), B and 1, as can be seen below).
The breakout of the resistance level 2000.00 continues the active minor impulse wave 3 which belongs to wave (3) from the start of this month.
Gold can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 2050.00 (former strong resistance from April and May) – from where the downward correction is likely.
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#Gold broke key resistance level 2000.00
Likely to rise to resistance level 2050.00
Gold recently broke the key resistance level 2000.00 (which stopped the previous waves (1), B and 1, as can be seen below).
The breakout of the resistance level 2000.00 continues the active minor impulse wave 3 which belongs to wave (3) from the start of this month.
Gold can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 2050.00 (former strong resistance from April and May) – from where the downward correction is likely.
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The crypto market has lost 1.5% in the last 24 hours to capitalisation of $1.42 trillion.
Traditional markets have also seen a slight pullback from the last week’s peak. Investors appear to be looking to lock in profits after the booming gains in October and November. The rally in crypto was stronger, so the correction is deeper.
Bitcoin was down 0.5% overnight to $37.0K, approaching the lower boundary of one month's ascending channel. A classic upside correction from the October lows suggests a pullback to $34K. Higher turning points could be the $36.7K area (recent local lows) and $35.6K (76.4% support and last week's low).
According to CoinShares data, crypto fund investments rose sharply last week, by $346 million at once; significant inflows continued for the fifth week in a row and the ninth week overall. Bitcoin investments increased by $312 million, Ethereum by $34 million, and Solana by $3.5 million.
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Traditional markets have also seen a slight pullback from the last week’s peak. Investors appear to be looking to lock in profits after the booming gains in October and November. The rally in crypto was stronger, so the correction is deeper.
Bitcoin was down 0.5% overnight to $37.0K, approaching the lower boundary of one month's ascending channel. A classic upside correction from the October lows suggests a pullback to $34K. Higher turning points could be the $36.7K area (recent local lows) and $35.6K (76.4% support and last week's low).
According to CoinShares data, crypto fund investments rose sharply last week, by $346 million at once; significant inflows continued for the fifth week in a row and the ninth week overall. Bitcoin investments increased by $312 million, Ethereum by $34 million, and Solana by $3.5 million.
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The US new home sales report came out weak on several key aspects. Sales fell 5.6% m/m to 679K vs 719K a month earlier (revised from 759K). The median price of a home sold in October was 409.3K, down 3% from 422.3K a month earlier and 17.6% below the peak of 496.8K set precisely one year ago.
Previously, new home sales had been on a moderate upward trend since last July, contrary to a drop in existing home sales. Households were holding off on secondary home sales, unwilling to switch from mortgages at the low rates of the past few years. In addition, new housing was becoming a bit more modest, given falling home prices, contrary to overall inflation.
Previously, new home sales had been on a moderate upward trend since last July, contrary to a drop in existing home sales. Households were holding off on secondary home sales, unwilling to switch from mortgages at the low rates of the past few years. In addition, new housing was becoming a bit more modest, given falling home prices, contrary to overall inflation.