Another report showed that retail sales fell by 0.1%. This is a strong result, as a correction in spending was expected after a 0.9% rise the month before. Sales were virtually flat from September last year to March this year, but there was a strong rebound in sales last summer.
Interestingly, this coincided with a pause in policy tightening by the Fed. This acceleration in spending is probably a concern for the regulator, so it is in no hurry to take the option of further policy tightening off the table.
The Empire Manufacturing Index jumped from -4.6 to +9.1 - much better than the expected -3.3 - and the highest since April.
Theoretically, this should allow retailers to join the battle for profit (not market share) by passing costs through to prices. In practice, however, producer prices fell sharply, giving retailers more room to manoeuvre.
Interestingly, this coincided with a pause in policy tightening by the Fed. This acceleration in spending is probably a concern for the regulator, so it is in no hurry to take the option of further policy tightening off the table.
The Empire Manufacturing Index jumped from -4.6 to +9.1 - much better than the expected -3.3 - and the highest since April.
Theoretically, this should allow retailers to join the battle for profit (not market share) by passing costs through to prices. In practice, however, producer prices fell sharply, giving retailers more room to manoeuvre.
On Wednesday, the #crypto market experienced a new growth spurt, rising 4.6% in 24 hours to $1.44 trillion, updating highs since May 2022. Bitcoin and several altcoins returned to the highs they tested a week earlier. #Cardano (+11.11%) and #Solana (+10.5%) led the growth among the leading coins.
Once again, the dynamics of crypto and equity markets have diverged. However, it should be noted that this seemingly negative correlation only works in the short term, as both asset classes have been rising steadily since October.
#Bitcoin tested the $38K area again on Thursday morning. For now, it is not giving up. A move higher would renew the highs from May 2022, and it makes sense that the bulls would need a reason to break it up. However, the chances of further gains are higher than a reversal to the downside. If we accept that Tuesday's decline was a correction, it has opened the way to $45-46K.
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Once again, the dynamics of crypto and equity markets have diverged. However, it should be noted that this seemingly negative correlation only works in the short term, as both asset classes have been rising steadily since October.
#Bitcoin tested the $38K area again on Thursday morning. For now, it is not giving up. A move higher would renew the highs from May 2022, and it makes sense that the bulls would need a reason to break it up. However, the chances of further gains are higher than a reversal to the downside. If we accept that Tuesday's decline was a correction, it has opened the way to $45-46K.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
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WTI crude oil is under pressure for a third day despite rising global market risk appetite and solid US economic activity data.
The night before, the EIA released two weekly reports on commercial inventories and oil production after a pause. Average production has remained at 13.2 million bpd for the past month and a half. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve has remained at the same level of 351.27 million barrels for the same period.
However, the situation with commercial reserves has changed significantly. They rose by 17.5 million in two weeks, four times more than expected. This jump in stocks confirmed the upward trend. Reserves remained within the range with a lower boundary of 400 million established over the past eight years and are up 0.9% on last year.
The night before, the EIA released two weekly reports on commercial inventories and oil production after a pause. Average production has remained at 13.2 million bpd for the past month and a half. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve has remained at the same level of 351.27 million barrels for the same period.
However, the situation with commercial reserves has changed significantly. They rose by 17.5 million in two weeks, four times more than expected. This jump in stocks confirmed the upward trend. Reserves remained within the range with a lower boundary of 400 million established over the past eight years and are up 0.9% on last year.
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It looks as if the current US production level is sufficient for a smooth build-up of stocks and exports. This is a negative signal for oil prices, which earlier in the week made an unsuccessful attempt to break back above the 200-day average - a crucial bearish signal. It could also signal that domestic consumption growth is not too robust, which is negative for prices.
A drop below $75 per barrel opens the door for a drop to the $67-70 area, where the price found support in May and June. In the event of a fall to this level, we could see a new series of verbal interventions from OPEC+, as happened earlier this year. Their absence on the other hand, as was the case in 2014, will increase the pressure on the price.
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A drop below $75 per barrel opens the door for a drop to the $67-70 area, where the price found support in May and June. In the event of a fall to this level, we could see a new series of verbal interventions from OPEC+, as happened earlier this year. Their absence on the other hand, as was the case in 2014, will increase the pressure on the price.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
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The crypto market has lost 1.5% over the past 24 hours, to $1.39 trillion. The sustained pressure has been in place since the start of the day on Thursday and looks like profit-taking from the impressive rally since the middle of last month. The correction is not as deep as it could have been, as it is primarily offset by demand for risk assets.
Tactically, we focus on the increased volatility of #Bitcoin, which has fallen below 34500 since the beginning of the week, then rebounded sharply to 38000 and is trading near the midpoint of that range at 36500 at midday on Friday.
Despite the volatility, bitcoin has remained in an uptrend since late October, while the volatility is clearing overbought conditions and making room for further gains
Tactically, we focus on the increased volatility of #Bitcoin, which has fallen below 34500 since the beginning of the week, then rebounded sharply to 38000 and is trading near the midpoint of that range at 36500 at midday on Friday.
Despite the volatility, bitcoin has remained in an uptrend since late October, while the volatility is clearing overbought conditions and making room for further gains
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#WaveAnalysis
#NZDUSD reversed from resistance level 0.6020
Likely to fall to support level 0.5925
NZDUSD currency pair recently reversed down from key resistance level 0.6020 (which has been reversing the price from August) coinciding with the upper daily Bollinger Band.
The resistance level 0.6020 was also strengthened by the coinciding 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from July.
Given the clear daily uptrend, NZDUSD currency pair can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 0.5925.
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#NZDUSD reversed from resistance level 0.6020
Likely to fall to support level 0.5925
NZDUSD currency pair recently reversed down from key resistance level 0.6020 (which has been reversing the price from August) coinciding with the upper daily Bollinger Band.
The resistance level 0.6020 was also strengthened by the coinciding 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from July.
Given the clear daily uptrend, NZDUSD currency pair can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 0.5925.
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#WaveAnalysis
#AUDUSD reversed from resistance level 0.6500
Likely to fall to support level 0,6400
AUDUSD currency pair recently reversed down from pivotal resistance level 0.6500 (former strong support from May, which has been reversing the price from August) intersecting with the upper daily Bollinger Band.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 0.6500 stopped the previous minor ABC correction 4.
Given the clear daily downtrend and the strong bullish USD sentiment, AUDUSD currency pair can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 0,6400.
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#AUDUSD reversed from resistance level 0.6500
Likely to fall to support level 0,6400
AUDUSD currency pair recently reversed down from pivotal resistance level 0.6500 (former strong support from May, which has been reversing the price from August) intersecting with the upper daily Bollinger Band.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 0.6500 stopped the previous minor ABC correction 4.
Given the clear daily downtrend and the strong bullish USD sentiment, AUDUSD currency pair can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 0,6400.
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The crypto market is up 1.5% in 24 hours to $1.41 trillion. The dynamics of coins over the past 7 days have been mixed.
Bitcoin gains 0.7%, Ethereum loses 1.6%, while the top altcoins varied from -5.8% for #Tron and -5% for XRP to +23% for #Avalanche and +4.7% for #Dogecoin.
#Bitcoin sticks to its uptrend channel. In #Ethereum, the trend of higher local lows over the last four weeks is noticeable.
The technical picture in the altcoins is setting up for another change of leaders in the second tier.
#Solana has risen for the past month, gaining around 130%. However, the price is still 77% below its peak in October 2021.
#XRP and #Litecoin, once some of the leading altcoins, are not yet in favour of the market. Like the coins above, they started to rise in the second half of last month but have come under more pressure in the last two weeks, reversing the upward trend. It's worth being prepared for them to underperform the market for the foreseeable future as the focus of developers and holders shifts.
Bitcoin gains 0.7%, Ethereum loses 1.6%, while the top altcoins varied from -5.8% for #Tron and -5% for XRP to +23% for #Avalanche and +4.7% for #Dogecoin.
#Bitcoin sticks to its uptrend channel. In #Ethereum, the trend of higher local lows over the last four weeks is noticeable.
The technical picture in the altcoins is setting up for another change of leaders in the second tier.
#Solana has risen for the past month, gaining around 130%. However, the price is still 77% below its peak in October 2021.
#XRP and #Litecoin, once some of the leading altcoins, are not yet in favour of the market. Like the coins above, they started to rise in the second half of last month but have come under more pressure in the last two weeks, reversing the upward trend. It's worth being prepared for them to underperform the market for the foreseeable future as the focus of developers and holders shifts.
The Japanese stock market started the day with a rise of over 1%, taking the Nikkei225 to 33850. It was the second brief climb to this height since June, last seen 33 years ago.
Touching the highs triggered a sharp sell-off, and the index is now down 0.6% from the day's open, which could be the start of a broader correction or a prolonged pullback.
The Nikkei225 is behaving classically according to the laws of technical analysis on a daily timeframe. In October, the index rallied after several days of testing support at the 200-day average. The divergence between the RSI and the price also favoured the bulls.
A solid buying base was supported by a weakening Yen, which has lost 4% against the Euro and Pound since 30th October. However, while the Yen has failed to see a meaningful change in the Bank of Japan's course, USDJPY seems to have fallen under its weight since the end of last week, and its appreciation has prompted equity traders to switch to profit-taking.
Touching the highs triggered a sharp sell-off, and the index is now down 0.6% from the day's open, which could be the start of a broader correction or a prolonged pullback.
The Nikkei225 is behaving classically according to the laws of technical analysis on a daily timeframe. In October, the index rallied after several days of testing support at the 200-day average. The divergence between the RSI and the price also favoured the bulls.
A solid buying base was supported by a weakening Yen, which has lost 4% against the Euro and Pound since 30th October. However, while the Yen has failed to see a meaningful change in the Bank of Japan's course, USDJPY seems to have fallen under its weight since the end of last week, and its appreciation has prompted equity traders to switch to profit-taking.
It's also possible that, despite the yen's previous weakness, the caution in Japan has come on the back of weak macroeconomic data. Last week, it was reported that Machine Tool Orders fell 20% y/y in October, following a 5.5% y/y decline a year earlier. The weak yen also appears to be hurting the broader economy, as GDP contracted by 0.5% in the third quarter. The economy fails to benefit from a weaker yen while facing rising import costs.
The technical reason for the sell-off in equities was the fresh wave of Yen strength since the morning. The USDJPY shows signs of breaking out of its uptrend as it dips below its 50-day moving average.
The Nikkei 225 has seen a sharp reversal of 1.6% from its intraday high as it hit overbought levels on the RSI. If the stock market declines continue, our attention will turn to the momentum around the 33000 and 32500 levels, which are the 76.4% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement lines of the 76.4% and 61.8% rally from late October, respectively.
If the Japanese market's decline does not stop there, the bulls' last hope is at 32000 (50-day average) and 31000 (200-day average). Failure to break below these will mean a transition to a downtrend.
The Nikkei 225 has seen a sharp reversal of 1.6% from its intraday high as it hit overbought levels on the RSI. If the stock market declines continue, our attention will turn to the momentum around the 33000 and 32500 levels, which are the 76.4% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement lines of the 76.4% and 61.8% rally from late October, respectively.
If the Japanese market's decline does not stop there, the bulls' last hope is at 32000 (50-day average) and 31000 (200-day average). Failure to break below these will mean a transition to a downtrend.
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📈 Pro News Update!
💵USD faces pressure following the consumer inflation report;
🪙 Gold rallies, finding support around the 200-day moving average;
📈 Nasdaq100 demonstrates an unexpected November swing, while
🛢 Oil markets tumble 9% prompting fears prices could slide to $70 per barrel.
🪙 Crypto markets have had a rollercoaster week leaving many pondering Bitcoin's dramatic comeback.
Stay tuned! 📰🔥
https://youtu.be/ZxNkAypgw1U
💵USD faces pressure following the consumer inflation report;
🪙 Gold rallies, finding support around the 200-day moving average;
📈 Nasdaq100 demonstrates an unexpected November swing, while
🛢 Oil markets tumble 9% prompting fears prices could slide to $70 per barrel.
🪙 Crypto markets have had a rollercoaster week leaving many pondering Bitcoin's dramatic comeback.
Stay tuned! 📰🔥
https://youtu.be/ZxNkAypgw1U
YouTube
Weekly Pro Analysis | USD, Gold, Nasdaq, WTI Oil, Bitcoin, and More
Join us on Pro News as we dissect the latest financial market trends and offer insights into what's on the horizon. In this week's episode, we delve into the weakening USD, the resilience of gold, Nasdaq's surprising surge, WTI oil's rollercoaster ride, the…
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#WaveAnalysis
#WTI reversed from pivotal support level 74.00
Likely to rise to resistance level 80.00
WTI crude oil recently reversed up from pivotal support level 74.00 (former resistance from May and June) intersecting with the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from the support level 74.00 created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Piercing Line, which stopped the previous medium-term ABC correction (2).
Given the strength of the support level 74.00, WTI crude oil can be expected to rise toward the next resistance level 80.00 , the target for the completion of the active impulse wave i, top of the previous correction iv.
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#WTI reversed from pivotal support level 74.00
Likely to rise to resistance level 80.00
WTI crude oil recently reversed up from pivotal support level 74.00 (former resistance from May and June) intersecting with the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from the support level 74.00 created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Piercing Line, which stopped the previous medium-term ABC correction (2).
Given the strength of the support level 74.00, WTI crude oil can be expected to rise toward the next resistance level 80.00 , the target for the completion of the active impulse wave i, top of the previous correction iv.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
#WaveAnalysis
#CADJPY reversed from the long-term resistance level 110.30
Likely to fall to support level 107.50
CADJPY currency pair recently reversed down from the long-term resistance level 110.30 (former yearly high, Double Top from last year) strengthened by the upper weekly Bollinger Band.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 110.30 stopped the previous medium-term impulse wave (3).
Given the strength of the resistance level 110.30 and the strongly bearish CAD sentiment seen across the FX markets today, CADJPY currency pair can be expected to fall toward the next support level 107.50 (low of the previous correction (2)).
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
#CADJPY reversed from the long-term resistance level 110.30
Likely to fall to support level 107.50
CADJPY currency pair recently reversed down from the long-term resistance level 110.30 (former yearly high, Double Top from last year) strengthened by the upper weekly Bollinger Band.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 110.30 stopped the previous medium-term impulse wave (3).
Given the strength of the resistance level 110.30 and the strongly bearish CAD sentiment seen across the FX markets today, CADJPY currency pair can be expected to fall toward the next support level 107.50 (low of the previous correction (2)).
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
Crypto market cap retreated some 0.2% in 24 hours to $1.41 trillion. Bitcoin is up 0.7%, and BNB is up 5.3%, but most altcoins are down.
According to CoinShares, investment in crypto funds rose by $176 million last week; inflows are on track for an eighth consecutive week, having accelerated over the past four weeks. Bitcoin investment increased by $155 million, Ethereum by $3 million and Solana by $14 million.
Bitcoin continues to dominate, with inflows accounting for 3.4% of total assets under management over the past eight weeks. Total inflows into the digital asset since the beginning of the year are $1.32 billion, with inflows still well behind the 2021 and 2020 figures ($10.7 billion and $6.6 billion respectively), CoinShares noted.
70% of the available Bitcoin supply did not move from one wallet to another last year. That's an all-time high.
According to CoinShares, investment in crypto funds rose by $176 million last week; inflows are on track for an eighth consecutive week, having accelerated over the past four weeks. Bitcoin investment increased by $155 million, Ethereum by $3 million and Solana by $14 million.
Bitcoin continues to dominate, with inflows accounting for 3.4% of total assets under management over the past eight weeks. Total inflows into the digital asset since the beginning of the year are $1.32 billion, with inflows still well behind the 2021 and 2020 figures ($10.7 billion and $6.6 billion respectively), CoinShares noted.
70% of the available Bitcoin supply did not move from one wallet to another last year. That's an all-time high.
#Palladium is showing signs of recovery after a recent sell-off, which could be a reversal of the metal's long-term trend.
Palladium has lost almost half its value since the start of the year to lows of $936 on the 10th of November. This decline has made it the worst-performing metal so far this year. The metal lost around 15% in the last week to that date alone, although it had held above $1090 for several weeks before.
The low in early November wiped out almost all of the metal's gains since 2018, leaving it more than 70% below the peak of $3000 in March 2022.
The last time palladium experienced a more sustained, albeit less prolonged, decline was in 2008, under pressure from the challenges of the global financial crisis.
However, since the beginning of last week, palladium has been rising daily, suggesting a return to sustainable demand. This reversal took place just above the critical pivot area above $900. Palladium was kept from going above it in 2011 and 2014, and below it in 2018.
Palladium has lost almost half its value since the start of the year to lows of $936 on the 10th of November. This decline has made it the worst-performing metal so far this year. The metal lost around 15% in the last week to that date alone, although it had held above $1090 for several weeks before.
The low in early November wiped out almost all of the metal's gains since 2018, leaving it more than 70% below the peak of $3000 in March 2022.
The last time palladium experienced a more sustained, albeit less prolonged, decline was in 2008, under pressure from the challenges of the global financial crisis.
However, since the beginning of last week, palladium has been rising daily, suggesting a return to sustainable demand. This reversal took place just above the critical pivot area above $900. Palladium was kept from going above it in 2011 and 2014, and below it in 2018.
On the other hand, the current rally could prove to be as much of a bull trap as it was in March when a subsequent, more furious sell-off wiped out a 15% rise in six weeks.
Fundamentally, palladium is tied to the consumer cycle, and its performance this year looks like a disappointment in China's growth, but with the surprise of strong US consumption and a better-than-expected European performance in brackets. Theoretically, this sets the stage for a slowdown next year, when high interest rates weigh more heavily on consumer demand.
But palladium is so historically oversold that it can rally despite the negative macro picture.
The $1200 area is worth watching on the road to recovery. A decisive break above the previous lows would confirm the reversal and quickly send the price to test the $1400 level. A break above this level would signal that a new bullish trend has begun in palladium, not just a corrective bounce.
Fundamentally, palladium is tied to the consumer cycle, and its performance this year looks like a disappointment in China's growth, but with the surprise of strong US consumption and a better-than-expected European performance in brackets. Theoretically, this sets the stage for a slowdown next year, when high interest rates weigh more heavily on consumer demand.
But palladium is so historically oversold that it can rally despite the negative macro picture.
The $1200 area is worth watching on the road to recovery. A decisive break above the previous lows would confirm the reversal and quickly send the price to test the $1400 level. A break above this level would signal that a new bullish trend has begun in palladium, not just a corrective bounce.
It was a mixed inflation report in Canada. Overall inflation slowed from 3.8% to 3.1% y/y in October versus an expected 3.2%. On the other hand, core inflation came in above expectations, ticking up 0.3% y/y in October, albeit lowering the annual rate of increase from 2.8% to 2.7%.
Inflation risks stalling near 3% in the coming months as Canadian data undergoes a high base effect, with a 0.7% jump in prices last October, followed by a 0.1% rise in November and a 0.6% decline in December. Prices need a repeat of the dip late last year to push annual inflation below 3%.
Today's statistics support those waiting for an extended pause on Canada's key rate, providing no food in favour of a hike or an earlier reversal.
Inflation risks stalling near 3% in the coming months as Canadian data undergoes a high base effect, with a 0.7% jump in prices last October, followed by a 0.1% rise in November and a 0.6% decline in December. Prices need a repeat of the dip late last year to push annual inflation below 3%.
Today's statistics support those waiting for an extended pause on Canada's key rate, providing no food in favour of a hike or an earlier reversal.