#WaveAnalysis
#USDJPY reversed from support level 149.30
Likely to rise to resistance level 152.00
USDJPY currency pair recently reversed up from the key support level 149.30 (which has been reversing the pair from the middle of October as can be seen below).
The support level 149.30 was strengthened by the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp upward impulse from the start of last month.
Given the strength of the active uptrend, USDJPY can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 152.00 (top of wave iii and the target for the completion of the active impulse wave v).
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#USDJPY reversed from support level 149.30
Likely to rise to resistance level 152.00
USDJPY currency pair recently reversed up from the key support level 149.30 (which has been reversing the pair from the middle of October as can be seen below).
The support level 149.30 was strengthened by the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp upward impulse from the start of last month.
Given the strength of the active uptrend, USDJPY can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 152.00 (top of wave iii and the target for the completion of the active impulse wave v).
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Crypto market cap rose 0.6% over the past 24 hours to $1.33 trillion as altcoins outperformed.
According to CoinShares, investments in crypto funds rose sharply again last week, adding $261 million, the sixth consecutive week of inflows. Bitcoin investments increased by $229 million, Ethereum by $18 million and Solana by $11 million.
#XRP rose to $0.73 by the end of the day on Monday. Reaching this level triggered a solid but short-lived wave of profit-taking. This sentiment has spread, albeit with less intensity, to other leading altcoins such as #Solana, #Cardano and #Litecoin. So far, it looks like a quick recharge rather than the start of an extended correction, as the weakness is neither shared by Bitcoin and Ether nor by the equity markets.
#Ethereum, which had seen limited gains recently, rose for the fifth day in a row on Tuesday, trading close to $1900, the highest level in four months.
According to CoinShares, investments in crypto funds rose sharply again last week, adding $261 million, the sixth consecutive week of inflows. Bitcoin investments increased by $229 million, Ethereum by $18 million and Solana by $11 million.
#XRP rose to $0.73 by the end of the day on Monday. Reaching this level triggered a solid but short-lived wave of profit-taking. This sentiment has spread, albeit with less intensity, to other leading altcoins such as #Solana, #Cardano and #Litecoin. So far, it looks like a quick recharge rather than the start of an extended correction, as the weakness is neither shared by Bitcoin and Ether nor by the equity markets.
#Ethereum, which had seen limited gains recently, rose for the fifth day in a row on Tuesday, trading close to $1900, the highest level in four months.
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Gold came under pressure this week, losing around 1.4% to $1966. This drops below previous local lows, forming a short-term downtrend and fitting into a pattern of declines following local overbought conditions.
Gold has been in strong demand since October 7th, following the war in Gaza. However, technical patterns are still at work. We have seen that the entry into the overbought area on the Relative Strength Index on the daily timeframe caused the growth to stall, and more active selling began early last week. As a result, the RSI retreated from the overbought area, which is often a medium-term signal for the end of growth and, at the very least, the beginning of a full-blown correction.
According to the Fibonacci pattern, we should pay more attention to the price dynamics around $1960, which is 76.4% of the amplitude of the October move. With strong buying interest, gold could find support and return to growth. Such shallow corrections are common in strong bull markets.
Gold has been in strong demand since October 7th, following the war in Gaza. However, technical patterns are still at work. We have seen that the entry into the overbought area on the Relative Strength Index on the daily timeframe caused the growth to stall, and more active selling began early last week. As a result, the RSI retreated from the overbought area, which is often a medium-term signal for the end of growth and, at the very least, the beginning of a full-blown correction.
According to the Fibonacci pattern, we should pay more attention to the price dynamics around $1960, which is 76.4% of the amplitude of the October move. With strong buying interest, gold could find support and return to growth. Such shallow corrections are common in strong bull markets.
But we see more potential in a more profound correction with a pullback to $1932. The 61.8% retracement, a classic Fibonacci pattern, alongside the 200-day MA passes here.
The ability to hold above this level will keep the focus on sustaining the bull market in gold. If the sellers don't stop here, the broader investment community could join in the selling. As in June 2022 or September 2023, a break below this line could be followed by a sharp decline. In the above cases, the price fell 8.5% and 6%, respectively, after a break below the 200-day average. Repeating this amplitude would wipe out October's gains or the gains of the last 12 months.
A fall back to near $1800 would take gold below the 200-week average, which it touched so nicely during the reversal in early October. However, it is rare to see such nice touches in gold. For example, a couple of them in 2017 failed to become a starting point for gold's rally, and only a dip below the 200-week MA in late 2018 revived buying interest.
The ability to hold above this level will keep the focus on sustaining the bull market in gold. If the sellers don't stop here, the broader investment community could join in the selling. As in June 2022 or September 2023, a break below this line could be followed by a sharp decline. In the above cases, the price fell 8.5% and 6%, respectively, after a break below the 200-day average. Repeating this amplitude would wipe out October's gains or the gains of the last 12 months.
A fall back to near $1800 would take gold below the 200-week average, which it touched so nicely during the reversal in early October. However, it is rare to see such nice touches in gold. For example, a couple of them in 2017 failed to become a starting point for gold's rally, and only a dip below the 200-week MA in late 2018 revived buying interest.
Aussie goes down under
The Australian dollar has lost over 1% since the start of the day on Tuesday as traders appeared unimpressed with the monetary authorities' actions.
The selling momentum hit AUDUSD following the decision to raise the key rate by 25 basis points to 4.35%, a 12-year high. The decision aligned with expectations, so touching the 0.6500 level kicked off a significant sell-off, forcing the pair to retreat below 0.64 briefly.
The RBA noted that the policy tightening was necessary for confidence that inflation would return to target within a reasonable timeframe. The decision commentary concludes by noting that it is not clear whether further increases will be required. This passage was probably the reason for the sharp decline in the Australian currency.
The Australian dollar has lost over 1% since the start of the day on Tuesday as traders appeared unimpressed with the monetary authorities' actions.
The selling momentum hit AUDUSD following the decision to raise the key rate by 25 basis points to 4.35%, a 12-year high. The decision aligned with expectations, so touching the 0.6500 level kicked off a significant sell-off, forcing the pair to retreat below 0.64 briefly.
The RBA noted that the policy tightening was necessary for confidence that inflation would return to target within a reasonable timeframe. The decision commentary concludes by noting that it is not clear whether further increases will be required. This passage was probably the reason for the sharp decline in the Australian currency.
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Since the beginning of November, #AUDUSD has added 2.8% or about 180 pips after forming a bottom for most of October. Today's dip looks more worrisome than a correction from the rise. It is worth paying attention to the pair's dynamics near 0.6390, where the 50-day moving average is.
Returning under it will make last week's rally considered false and will open a quick way to the area of lows near 0.6300. Moreover, it potentially opens the way to levels below 0.60, as touching 0.65 coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the decline from the August peak to the October bottom.
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Returning under it will make last week's rally considered false and will open a quick way to the area of lows near 0.6300. Moreover, it potentially opens the way to levels below 0.60, as touching 0.65 coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the decline from the August peak to the October bottom.
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#WaveAnalysis
#AUDJPY reversed from resistance level 97.35
Likely to fall to support level 96.00
AUDJPY currency pair recently reversed down from the major resistance level 97.35 (which has been reversing the pair from September of 2022).
The resistance level 97.35 was strengthened by the upper daily and weekly Bollinger Bands.
Given the strength of the resistance level 97.35 and the overbought daily Stochastic, AUDJPY can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 96.00.
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#AUDJPY reversed from resistance level 97.35
Likely to fall to support level 96.00
AUDJPY currency pair recently reversed down from the major resistance level 97.35 (which has been reversing the pair from September of 2022).
The resistance level 97.35 was strengthened by the upper daily and weekly Bollinger Bands.
Given the strength of the resistance level 97.35 and the overbought daily Stochastic, AUDJPY can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 96.00.
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#WaveAnalysis
#GBPUSD reversed from key resistance level 1.2335
Likely to fall to support level 1.2200
GBPUSD currency pair recently reversed down with the daily Shooting Star from the key resistance level 1.2335 (former strong support from May).
The resistance level 1.2335 was strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band and by the 50% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from august.
Given the strength of the resistance level 1.2335, GBPUSD can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 1.2200.
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#GBPUSD reversed from key resistance level 1.2335
Likely to fall to support level 1.2200
GBPUSD currency pair recently reversed down with the daily Shooting Star from the key resistance level 1.2335 (former strong support from May).
The resistance level 1.2335 was strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band and by the 50% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from august.
Given the strength of the resistance level 1.2335, GBPUSD can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 1.2200.
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Beautiful technical reversal of the pound
The British pound is losing for the third day in a row, having retreated to 1.2260. A technical look at the chart sets up for further declines with a renewal of the October lows with a dip under 1.20.
#GBPUSD was in demand on dips under 1.2100 during October, which formed a bottom in the pair. At the beginning of the month, we saw a pick-up in buying following the global increase in risk appetite. But this week, the bulls have retreated.
GBPUSD climbed to 1.2440 on Monday, but that touch of the 200-day moving average kicked off a sell-off that has continued for the third day. Keeping the pound below this technically important line makes it uninteresting for many big players, leaving it within a 'sell the growth' pattern.
The British pound is losing for the third day in a row, having retreated to 1.2260. A technical look at the chart sets up for further declines with a renewal of the October lows with a dip under 1.20.
#GBPUSD was in demand on dips under 1.2100 during October, which formed a bottom in the pair. At the beginning of the month, we saw a pick-up in buying following the global increase in risk appetite. But this week, the bulls have retreated.
GBPUSD climbed to 1.2440 on Monday, but that touch of the 200-day moving average kicked off a sell-off that has continued for the third day. Keeping the pound below this technically important line makes it uninteresting for many big players, leaving it within a 'sell the growth' pattern.
In addition, the recent surge also fits within a Fibonacci retracement pattern. GBPUSD declined from 1.3140 in mid-July to 1.2030 in early October, and the latest corrective surge brought the pair very close to the 61.8% retracement levels. This may have helped the bears to recharge by removing the short-term oversold condition.
After a downward reversal at the start of the week, GBPUSD could reach 1.21, which is near local support, without many obstacles on the way.
The pair's dynamics in the 1.2060-1.2100 range could be an essential indicator of the bears' seriousness. A quick drop below will open the way further to 1.1840 - near the lows of January and March. The long-term downside target for this cycle could be 1.1400.
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After a downward reversal at the start of the week, GBPUSD could reach 1.21, which is near local support, without many obstacles on the way.
The pair's dynamics in the 1.2060-1.2100 range could be an essential indicator of the bears' seriousness. A quick drop below will open the way further to 1.1840 - near the lows of January and March. The long-term downside target for this cycle could be 1.1400.
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#WaveAnalysis
#EURJPY broke key resistance level 160.00
Likely to rise to resistance level 164.00
EURJPY currency pair earlier broke above the key resistance level 160.00 (which has been reversing the pair from the middle of August).
The breakout of the resistance level 160.00 accelerated the active intermediate impulse wave (3).
Given the strength of the active daily uptrend and the impulse wave (3), EURJPY can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 164.00 (top of the active daily up channel).
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#EURJPY broke key resistance level 160.00
Likely to rise to resistance level 164.00
EURJPY currency pair earlier broke above the key resistance level 160.00 (which has been reversing the pair from the middle of August).
The breakout of the resistance level 160.00 accelerated the active intermediate impulse wave (3).
Given the strength of the active daily uptrend and the impulse wave (3), EURJPY can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 164.00 (top of the active daily up channel).
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#WaveAnalysis
#GBPAUD reversed from support level 1.8945
Likely to rise to resistance level 1.9325
GBPAUD currency pair recently reversed up from the pivotal support level 1.8945 (which has been reversing the pair from the start of July) coinciding with the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from the support level 1.8945 started the active intermediate impulse wave (3).
Given the strength of the active daily uptrend, GBPAUD can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 1.9325 (top of the previous impulse wave (1)).
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#GBPAUD reversed from support level 1.8945
Likely to rise to resistance level 1.9325
GBPAUD currency pair recently reversed up from the pivotal support level 1.8945 (which has been reversing the pair from the start of July) coinciding with the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from the support level 1.8945 started the active intermediate impulse wave (3).
Given the strength of the active daily uptrend, GBPAUD can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 1.9325 (top of the previous impulse wave (1)).
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The crypto market continues to climb, rising 3.4% in the last 24 hours to $1.38 trillion. Bitcoin was again the driver, adding 3.8%. Altcoins are moving slower but up, adding between 1.7% (#BNB) and 7.7% (#Polygon).
#Bitcoin has broken out of a long consolidation range and is approaching the next round level of $37K. The technical implementation of this pattern suggests a rise to $41-45K, depending on which point we choose as the start of the last impulse. The upper limit looks like a suitable target with a pivot point close to it. Near it, in April 2022, the corrective rebound ended, and the most relentless phase of the sell-off began.
Despite Bitcoin's strong recovery since the beginning of the year, the supply of coins is extremely limited due to the actions of hoarders. Many metrics that characterise "bitcoin inactivity" have reached historic highs, Glassnode noted.
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#Bitcoin has broken out of a long consolidation range and is approaching the next round level of $37K. The technical implementation of this pattern suggests a rise to $41-45K, depending on which point we choose as the start of the last impulse. The upper limit looks like a suitable target with a pivot point close to it. Near it, in April 2022, the corrective rebound ended, and the most relentless phase of the sell-off began.
Despite Bitcoin's strong recovery since the beginning of the year, the supply of coins is extremely limited due to the actions of hoarders. Many metrics that characterise "bitcoin inactivity" have reached historic highs, Glassnode noted.
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#Nasdaq100 set for further gains, confounding early sceptics
US indices turned sharply higher at the start of last week and are still on the offensive, with the Nasdaq100 leading the rally. The pace of growth has slowed considerably, but it would be foolhardy to bet on a corrective pullback now.
The Nasdaq100 is up more than 9% from its 26 October low. The leaders in the early stages of a market rally often continue to lead the market for an extended period, albeit at a slower pace.
At the end of last month, buyers stepped in just in time to prevent the index from falling below its 200-day moving average.
Reaching this curve coincided with the touching and attempted breaking of the downtrend support line within which the Nasdaq100 had been trading since the second half of July.
US indices turned sharply higher at the start of last week and are still on the offensive, with the Nasdaq100 leading the rally. The pace of growth has slowed considerably, but it would be foolhardy to bet on a corrective pullback now.
The Nasdaq100 is up more than 9% from its 26 October low. The leaders in the early stages of a market rally often continue to lead the market for an extended period, albeit at a slower pace.
At the end of last month, buyers stepped in just in time to prevent the index from falling below its 200-day moving average.
Reaching this curve coincided with the touching and attempted breaking of the downtrend support line within which the Nasdaq100 had been trading since the second half of July.
The rally was strong enough to break through the upper boundary of this corridor. The index rewrote the local highs, confirming the break of the downtrend.
The third factor was the accumulated bullish divergence between the RSI on the daily timeframe and the price when the sequence of new local lows did not find confirmation in the form of new index lows.
The fourth factor is the accumulated substantial short position in equities, justified by expectations of weakness in economic indicators and corporate financial performance. The bears failed to wait for a meaningful deterioration in economic indicators and moved to close shorts, which poured more fuel for growth.
The Nasdaq100 quickly returned to its previous local highs, and the subsequent local target for its growth looks to be the 15500 area, followed by 16000.
With interest rates kept high and the central banks committed to the mantra of "higher for longer" (than the market expects), one should be cautious about the prospects of making new highs and breaking through 16500. Nevertheless, it may be too dangerous for short-term traders to build up short positions or close out long positions too early.
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The third factor was the accumulated bullish divergence between the RSI on the daily timeframe and the price when the sequence of new local lows did not find confirmation in the form of new index lows.
The fourth factor is the accumulated substantial short position in equities, justified by expectations of weakness in economic indicators and corporate financial performance. The bears failed to wait for a meaningful deterioration in economic indicators and moved to close shorts, which poured more fuel for growth.
The Nasdaq100 quickly returned to its previous local highs, and the subsequent local target for its growth looks to be the 15500 area, followed by 16000.
With interest rates kept high and the central banks committed to the mantra of "higher for longer" (than the market expects), one should be cautious about the prospects of making new highs and breaking through 16500. Nevertheless, it may be too dangerous for short-term traders to build up short positions or close out long positions too early.
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#WaveAnalysis
#AUDNZD reversed from powerful resistance level 1.0915
Likely to fall to support level 1.0750
AUDNZD continues to fall after the earlier downward reversal from the powerful resistance level 1.0915 (which has been reversing the pair from the end of June).
The downward reversal from the resistance level 1.0915 stopped the earlier short-term impulse wave (3).
Given the clear bearish AUD sentiment seen today, AUDNZD can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 1.0750.
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#AUDNZD reversed from powerful resistance level 1.0915
Likely to fall to support level 1.0750
AUDNZD continues to fall after the earlier downward reversal from the powerful resistance level 1.0915 (which has been reversing the pair from the end of June).
The downward reversal from the resistance level 1.0915 stopped the earlier short-term impulse wave (3).
Given the clear bearish AUD sentiment seen today, AUDNZD can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 1.0750.
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#WaveAnalysis
#EURCAD reversed from pivotal resistance level 1.4775
Likely to fall to support level 1.4650
EURCAD recently reversed down from the pivotal resistance level 1.4775 (which has been reversing the pair from the start of July).
The downward reversal from the resistance level 1.4775 stopped the earlier medium-term ABC correction (2).
Given the strength of the resistance level 1.4775 and the bearish euro sentiment seen across the FX markets, EURCAD can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 1.4650.
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#EURCAD reversed from pivotal resistance level 1.4775
Likely to fall to support level 1.4650
EURCAD recently reversed down from the pivotal resistance level 1.4775 (which has been reversing the pair from the start of July).
The downward reversal from the resistance level 1.4775 stopped the earlier medium-term ABC correction (2).
Given the strength of the resistance level 1.4775 and the bearish euro sentiment seen across the FX markets, EURCAD can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 1.4650.
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#WaveAnalysis
#Gold reversed from resistance level 1985.00
Likely to fall to support level 1900.00
Gold recently reversed down from the key resistance level 1985.00 (which has been reversing the price from the middle of May) intersecting with the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from May.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 1985.00 started the earlier short-term ABC correction 2.
Given the strength of the resistance level 1985.00, Gold can be expected to fall further toward the next round support level 1900.00.
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#Gold reversed from resistance level 1985.00
Likely to fall to support level 1900.00
Gold recently reversed down from the key resistance level 1985.00 (which has been reversing the price from the middle of May) intersecting with the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from May.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 1985.00 started the earlier short-term ABC correction 2.
Given the strength of the resistance level 1985.00, Gold can be expected to fall further toward the next round support level 1900.00.
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#WaveAnalysis #SPX
S&P 500 broke key resistance level 4385.00
Likely to rise to resistance level 4450.00.
S&P 500 index recently broke the key resistance level 4385.00 (previous double top from October) standing near the 50% Fibonacci correction of the downward ABC correction 2 from July.
The breakout of the resistance level 4385.00 accelerated the active medium-term impulse wave (3).
Given the prevalence of the risk-on sentiment seen today, S&P 500 index can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 4450.00.
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S&P 500 broke key resistance level 4385.00
Likely to rise to resistance level 4450.00.
S&P 500 index recently broke the key resistance level 4385.00 (previous double top from October) standing near the 50% Fibonacci correction of the downward ABC correction 2 from July.
The breakout of the resistance level 4385.00 accelerated the active medium-term impulse wave (3).
Given the prevalence of the risk-on sentiment seen today, S&P 500 index can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 4450.00.
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