⏰US Non-farm Payrolls will be released at 12:30 GMT today. The US economy is expected to create 170K new jobs in September ⚒
🫰Besides, keep an eye on Average Hourly Earnings which is expected to keep growth at 4.3% y/y📈
💲 Numbers above forecasts can positively impact USD, sparking expectations for further rate hikes from the Fed🏦
🫰Besides, keep an eye on Average Hourly Earnings which is expected to keep growth at 4.3% y/y📈
💲 Numbers above forecasts can positively impact USD, sparking expectations for further rate hikes from the Fed🏦
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#WaveAnalysis
#CADJPY reversed from powerful resistance level 110.35
Likely to fall to support level 106.7
CADJPY currency pair recently reversed down from the powerful resistance level 110.35 (which stopped the previous weekly uptrend in 2022) standing near the upper weekly daily Bollinger Band.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 110.35 is currently forming the weekly Evening Star – strong sell signal for this currency pair.
Given the bearish divergence one the weekly Stochastic, CADJPY currency pair can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 106.7.
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#CADJPY reversed from powerful resistance level 110.35
Likely to fall to support level 106.7
CADJPY currency pair recently reversed down from the powerful resistance level 110.35 (which stopped the previous weekly uptrend in 2022) standing near the upper weekly daily Bollinger Band.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 110.35 is currently forming the weekly Evening Star – strong sell signal for this currency pair.
Given the bearish divergence one the weekly Stochastic, CADJPY currency pair can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 106.7.
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#WaveAnalysis
#GBPUSD reversed from support level 1.2050
Likely to rise to resistance level 1.2265
GBPUSD currency pair recently reversed up from the key support level 1.2050 (former pivotal support from March) coinciding with the support trendline of the daily down channel from July.
The upward reversal from the support level 1.2050 created the daily Morning Star – strong buy signal for this currency pair.
Given the rising bullish sterling sentiment, GBPUSD currency pair can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 1.2265 (top of wave 2 from last month).
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#GBPUSD reversed from support level 1.2050
Likely to rise to resistance level 1.2265
GBPUSD currency pair recently reversed up from the key support level 1.2050 (former pivotal support from March) coinciding with the support trendline of the daily down channel from July.
The upward reversal from the support level 1.2050 created the daily Morning Star – strong buy signal for this currency pair.
Given the rising bullish sterling sentiment, GBPUSD currency pair can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 1.2265 (top of wave 2 from last month).
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#WaveAnalysis #US30
Dow Jones reversed from support level 32875.00
Likely to rise to resistance level 33875.00
Dow Jones index recently reversed up from the pivotal support level 32875.00 (which has been reversing the price from May), coinciding with the lower daily Bollinger Band and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from March.
The upward reversal from the support level 32875.00 stopped the c-wave of the active ABC correction 2 from the end of July.
Given the still oversold daily Stochastic, Dow Jones index can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 33875.00 (top of the earlier wave iv).
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Dow Jones reversed from support level 32875.00
Likely to rise to resistance level 33875.00
Dow Jones index recently reversed up from the pivotal support level 32875.00 (which has been reversing the price from May), coinciding with the lower daily Bollinger Band and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from March.
The upward reversal from the support level 32875.00 stopped the c-wave of the active ABC correction 2 from the end of July.
Given the still oversold daily Stochastic, Dow Jones index can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 33875.00 (top of the earlier wave iv).
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#WaveAnalysis
#AUDJPY reversed from support level 93.00
Likely to rise to resistance level 96.00
AUDJPY currency pair recently reversed up from the key support level 93.00 (former monthly high from February) coinciding with the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from March.
The upward reversal from the support level 93.00 started the active short-term impulse wave 3.
Given the strengthening yen sales, AUDJPY currency pair can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 96.00 (which reversed the pair last month).
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#AUDJPY reversed from support level 93.00
Likely to rise to resistance level 96.00
AUDJPY currency pair recently reversed up from the key support level 93.00 (former monthly high from February) coinciding with the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from March.
The upward reversal from the support level 93.00 started the active short-term impulse wave 3.
Given the strengthening yen sales, AUDJPY currency pair can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 96.00 (which reversed the pair last month).
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#Crypto cap is down 3.2% for the week to $1.09 trillion. However, this is more of a high base effect due to a solid start to October.
#Bitcoin remains in an uptrend but ran into resistance at its 200-day MA over the weekend. Having lost its ability to rally, it has returned to the general crypto market, where the major altcoins remained under pressure for most of last week.
All eyes will be on BTCUSD to see if it can successfully consolidate above $28K, the 200-day MA. If it does, we can expect a quick rise to $29.0K-$29.3K.
If the pressure on risk assets all eyes will be on the $27.2K-27.0K area. Without significant support here, we could be talking about a change from a short-term trend to a downtrend.
#Ethereum is creeping lower, leaving the 50-day MA as resistance. This is a bearish signal. In case the markets develop a decline, it is worth paying attention to the dynamics of the second largest cryptocurrency near $1580. A failure to hold here will open the way for a rapid decline.
#Bitcoin remains in an uptrend but ran into resistance at its 200-day MA over the weekend. Having lost its ability to rally, it has returned to the general crypto market, where the major altcoins remained under pressure for most of last week.
All eyes will be on BTCUSD to see if it can successfully consolidate above $28K, the 200-day MA. If it does, we can expect a quick rise to $29.0K-$29.3K.
If the pressure on risk assets all eyes will be on the $27.2K-27.0K area. Without significant support here, we could be talking about a change from a short-term trend to a downtrend.
#Ethereum is creeping lower, leaving the 50-day MA as resistance. This is a bearish signal. In case the markets develop a decline, it is worth paying attention to the dynamics of the second largest cryptocurrency near $1580. A failure to hold here will open the way for a rapid decline.
#Gold climbed close to $1855 per troy ounce in early trading on Monday and stabilised in a relatively narrow range of $1845-1853 during the European session. The rise from Friday's lows of $1810 resulted from a combination of three factors. However, they all appear to be short-term and promise the evolution of an interesting situation.
Gold came into last Friday's session having built up an impressive oversold condition, losing almost every day since the 20th, falling 7% to a low near $1810. This sell-off has taken the daily RSI to 19, an extremely oversold level last seen in July 2015. An asset is considered oversold when the RSI falls below 30, and a reading below 20 is a rare event that at least a short-term bounce has always followed.
Gold buying on Friday was supported by rising risk appetite in equity markets as tepid wage growth figures accompanied robust employment data. As a result, US bond yields fell on expectations that the Fed would avoid further policy tightening.
Gold came into last Friday's session having built up an impressive oversold condition, losing almost every day since the 20th, falling 7% to a low near $1810. This sell-off has taken the daily RSI to 19, an extremely oversold level last seen in July 2015. An asset is considered oversold when the RSI falls below 30, and a reading below 20 is a rare event that at least a short-term bounce has always followed.
Gold buying on Friday was supported by rising risk appetite in equity markets as tepid wage growth figures accompanied robust employment data. As a result, US bond yields fell on expectations that the Fed would avoid further policy tightening.
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On Monday, gold opened with a gap higher on the back of clashes between Israel and Hamas. However, the latest move is more of a knee-jerk reaction to the news than a sustained, extended move. Still, gold bullion is hardly the quickest and easiest way to protect capital from war these days: transferring wealth into another currency or bank is much easier and more efficient.
We should, therefore, be prepared for the recent rally in gold to be reinforced by short-term profit-taking, which will only encourage the bears.
The classic Fibonacci retracement pattern suggests a potential upside to $1862, or 61.8% of the original downside amplitude. However, today's top coincides with the rally we saw in gold in late February and early March. Very soon after, the market turned to a new round of declines.
We should, therefore, be prepared for the recent rally in gold to be reinforced by short-term profit-taking, which will only encourage the bears.
The classic Fibonacci retracement pattern suggests a potential upside to $1862, or 61.8% of the original downside amplitude. However, today's top coincides with the rally we saw in gold in late February and early March. Very soon after, the market turned to a new round of declines.
The triumph of the bears was then prevented by the crisis in regional banks in the US, which led to a rush into gold and the major cryptocurrencies. The 50-week moving average was the technical support at the time. Now, the 200-week moving average is taking on the role of support.
Gold may make another attempt to break below $1810 in the coming days. We could see a quick fall to $1760 if the bears succeed.
At the same time, we cannot completely rule out the possibility that gold will start to look attractive to long-term buyers from these levels, having begun another gentle climb.
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Gold may make another attempt to break below $1810 in the coming days. We could see a quick fall to $1760 if the bears succeed.
At the same time, we cannot completely rule out the possibility that gold will start to look attractive to long-term buyers from these levels, having begun another gentle climb.
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#WaveAnalysis
#Brent crude oil reversed from support level 83.15
Likely to rise to resistance level 90.00
Brent crude oil recently reversed up from the support level 83.15 (which has been repeatedly reversing the price from the start of August), coinciding with the lower daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from June.
The upward reversal from the support level 83.15 is currently forming the daily candlesticks reversal pattern Morning Star Doji.
Given the still oversold daily Stochastic, Brent crude oil can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 90.00.
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#Brent crude oil reversed from support level 83.15
Likely to rise to resistance level 90.00
Brent crude oil recently reversed up from the support level 83.15 (which has been repeatedly reversing the price from the start of August), coinciding with the lower daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from June.
The upward reversal from the support level 83.15 is currently forming the daily candlesticks reversal pattern Morning Star Doji.
Given the still oversold daily Stochastic, Brent crude oil can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 90.00.
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#WaveAnalysis
#USDCAD reversed from resistance level 1.3800
Likely to fall to support level 1.3555
USDCAD currency pair recently reversed down from the resistance level 1.3800 (which has been reversing the price from October of 2022), coinciding with the upper daily Bollinger Band and the resistance trendline of the daily up channel from July.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 1.3800 stopped the c-wave of the earlier intermediate ABC correction (3) from the start of July.
Given the strength of the resistance level 1.3800 and the still overbought daily Stochastic, USDCAD can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 1.3555.
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#USDCAD reversed from resistance level 1.3800
Likely to fall to support level 1.3555
USDCAD currency pair recently reversed down from the resistance level 1.3800 (which has been reversing the price from October of 2022), coinciding with the upper daily Bollinger Band and the resistance trendline of the daily up channel from July.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 1.3800 stopped the c-wave of the earlier intermediate ABC correction (3) from the start of July.
Given the strength of the resistance level 1.3800 and the still overbought daily Stochastic, USDCAD can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 1.3555.
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#Crypto
Another attempt by Bitcoin to break above $28K triggered a wave of selling that took the price back to $27.2K at the peak of the decline. Interestingly, the pressure on Bitcoin came when the risk appetite in traditional markets was recovering. We attribute this to Monday's US defaulted debt markets rather than the moving of money from one asset to another.
Technically, #Bitcoin has established $28K as a severe resistance level but is not yet on a clear downward path.
#Ethereum remains weaker than the market, having pulled back below $1580 on Monday evening - the bottom of the last two months’ range. So far, the situation looks more like a smooth downtrend with a possible pause near significant support. But without a confident reversal from current levels, we can't talk about stopping the decline.
Another attempt by Bitcoin to break above $28K triggered a wave of selling that took the price back to $27.2K at the peak of the decline. Interestingly, the pressure on Bitcoin came when the risk appetite in traditional markets was recovering. We attribute this to Monday's US defaulted debt markets rather than the moving of money from one asset to another.
Technically, #Bitcoin has established $28K as a severe resistance level but is not yet on a clear downward path.
#Ethereum remains weaker than the market, having pulled back below $1580 on Monday evening - the bottom of the last two months’ range. So far, the situation looks more like a smooth downtrend with a possible pause near significant support. But without a confident reversal from current levels, we can't talk about stopping the decline.
Weakened German industrial production
German industrial production contracted for the fourth consecutive month in August, missing expectations. Last month's loss was 0.2%, bringing the year-on-year decline to 2.0%.
Germany's industrial production index started on a downward path at the beginning of 2018, which is easier to link to the outbreak of trade wars with China than to coronavirus, expensive energy and high interest rates - crises that have succeeded each other over the past four years.
Monday was not packed with meaningful releases, so the publication of data from Germany was the second most significant reason for the euro movement today after the Middle East hostilities. EURUSD lost 0.3% on the publication of the statistics, pulling back to 1.0525.
German industrial production contracted for the fourth consecutive month in August, missing expectations. Last month's loss was 0.2%, bringing the year-on-year decline to 2.0%.
Germany's industrial production index started on a downward path at the beginning of 2018, which is easier to link to the outbreak of trade wars with China than to coronavirus, expensive energy and high interest rates - crises that have succeeded each other over the past four years.
Monday was not packed with meaningful releases, so the publication of data from Germany was the second most significant reason for the euro movement today after the Middle East hostilities. EURUSD lost 0.3% on the publication of the statistics, pulling back to 1.0525.
Birkenstock's IPO Takes Its First Steps in the Market! 👣
Birkenstock, the iconic sandal maker, is all set for its stock market debut this week.
They plan to offer 32.3 million shares, priced at $44 to $49 each, with a potential valuation of $9.2 billion.
Get ready to buy or sell #BIRK shares once they hit our MT5 platform and join us as we follow Birkenstock's footsteps in the financial world! 📈
More
Birkenstock, the iconic sandal maker, is all set for its stock market debut this week.
They plan to offer 32.3 million shares, priced at $44 to $49 each, with a potential valuation of $9.2 billion.
Get ready to buy or sell #BIRK shares once they hit our MT5 platform and join us as we follow Birkenstock's footsteps in the financial world! 📈
More
Oil's bounce at the start of the week's trading was an essential step in correcting the short-term oversold condition, but it may only fuel the interest of new sellers.
The oil price is down 12.8% in the six trading sessions since 28 September. A local low was recorded immediately after the release of the labour market data. However, interest in oil was soon fuelled by speculation that, along with a strong labour market in the US, there was no increase in inflationary pressure. On Monday, investors speculated about the risks of energy supply reduction due to the involvement of other Muslim countries in the conflict, which will put oil and gas supplies at risk.
But let's look at the situation without emotion and speculation - purely from a tech analysis perspective. From this point of view, the latest bounce was a critical correction that could clear the way for a subsequent decline.
The oil price is down 12.8% in the six trading sessions since 28 September. A local low was recorded immediately after the release of the labour market data. However, interest in oil was soon fuelled by speculation that, along with a strong labour market in the US, there was no increase in inflationary pressure. On Monday, investors speculated about the risks of energy supply reduction due to the involvement of other Muslim countries in the conflict, which will put oil and gas supplies at risk.
But let's look at the situation without emotion and speculation - purely from a tech analysis perspective. From this point of view, the latest bounce was a critical correction that could clear the way for a subsequent decline.
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Brent oil turned downwards from $95 and quickly reached $83, falling sharply under the 50-day moving average. Last Wednesday's dip signals that the bears are firmly in market control.
By Friday, the RSI on the daily charts began to flirt with the oversold area. Since the end of 2020, this signal has consistently triggered a reversal. The same thing happened this time around.
Thanks to the US data and the military conflict in the Gaza Strip on Monday, the price made a classic rebound to the 61.8% area from the initial decline. But its recovery stalled there. We also note that on Monday, the price tried to return above the 50-day average but closed the day lower.
There was no upward momentum in oil for most of the day on Tuesday despite the strengthening of stock indices, indicating a recovery in risk appetite.
By Friday, the RSI on the daily charts began to flirt with the oversold area. Since the end of 2020, this signal has consistently triggered a reversal. The same thing happened this time around.
Thanks to the US data and the military conflict in the Gaza Strip on Monday, the price made a classic rebound to the 61.8% area from the initial decline. But its recovery stalled there. We also note that on Monday, the price tried to return above the 50-day average but closed the day lower.
There was no upward momentum in oil for most of the day on Tuesday despite the strengthening of stock indices, indicating a recovery in risk appetite.
If the bears keep an upper hand over the oil market, we could see a gap close at the start of the week's trading in the next couple of days. The following support line in oil looks to be the 200-day moving average, now just below $82.
A more ambitious downside target is $75, where the most crucial separator of market cycles in the form of the 200-week average and the 161.8% level of the last downside impulse may cross by the end of the year.
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A more ambitious downside target is $75, where the most crucial separator of market cycles in the form of the 200-week average and the 161.8% level of the last downside impulse may cross by the end of the year.
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#WaveAnalysis
#AUDNZD reversed from resistance level 1.0665
Likely to fall to support level 1.0600
AUDNZD currency pair recently reversed down from the resistance level 1.0665 (former support from the start of October).
The downward reversal from the resistance level 1.0665 continues the C-wave of the active intermediate ABC correction (2) from the middle of June.
Given the strength of the active impulse wave C, AUDNZD can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 1.0600 (target for the completion of the active C-wave).
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#AUDNZD reversed from resistance level 1.0665
Likely to fall to support level 1.0600
AUDNZD currency pair recently reversed down from the resistance level 1.0665 (former support from the start of October).
The downward reversal from the resistance level 1.0665 continues the C-wave of the active intermediate ABC correction (2) from the middle of June.
Given the strength of the active impulse wave C, AUDNZD can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 1.0600 (target for the completion of the active C-wave).
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