⏰ISM Services PMI for September will be released at 14:00 GMT today. It is expected to drop from 54.5 to 53.5.
Generally, a value below 📉 50 indicates a contraction of activity compared to the previous month, while a value above 📈 50 means expansion.
💲 A number above forecasts can positively impact USD, sparking expectations for further rate hikes from the Fed.
Generally, a value below 📉 50 indicates a contraction of activity compared to the previous month, while a value above 📈 50 means expansion.
💲 A number above forecasts can positively impact USD, sparking expectations for further rate hikes from the Fed.
The #crypto market lost ground throughout Tuesday but has been attempting to turn around since Wednesday morning. So far, it seems to be following the sentiment of the stock market, which is trying to recover from the previous day's sell-off.
Despite Tuesday's pressure, #Bitcoin has remained in an uptrend for the past week. But the bears aren't giving up their red lines either, as BTCUSD remains below its 200-day moving average at $28,000. The ability to consolidate above it could trigger an intensification of buying. But for now, it's best to stay on the sidelines.
This is especially true as #Ethereum is in a tight sell-off. It has lost almost evenly for the fourth consecutive session and only finds sustainable buying when it touches the 50-day average. However, it is pointing down, so the move looks like an organised retreat.
Despite Tuesday's pressure, #Bitcoin has remained in an uptrend for the past week. But the bears aren't giving up their red lines either, as BTCUSD remains below its 200-day moving average at $28,000. The ability to consolidate above it could trigger an intensification of buying. But for now, it's best to stay on the sidelines.
This is especially true as #Ethereum is in a tight sell-off. It has lost almost evenly for the fourth consecutive session and only finds sustainable buying when it touches the 50-day average. However, it is pointing down, so the move looks like an organised retreat.
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The monthly ADP report showed a sharp slowdown in job creation. The company estimated private sector job gains at 89K, down by half for the month and significantly weaker than the 150K expected.
A breakdown by firm size shows a curious pattern. Large firms (500+ employees) shed a net 83k jobs, while small firms added staff: +67k in enterprises with 1-19 employees. Smaller enterprises seem to have adapted better to the changing economy, while the largest are falling victim to tighter financial conditions.
The hardest hit sectors were office activities (-32K), transport services (-13K) and manufacturing (-12K). By contrast, the leisure sector continued to boom, adding 92K jobs.
A breakdown by firm size shows a curious pattern. Large firms (500+ employees) shed a net 83k jobs, while small firms added staff: +67k in enterprises with 1-19 employees. Smaller enterprises seem to have adapted better to the changing economy, while the largest are falling victim to tighter financial conditions.
The hardest hit sectors were office activities (-32K), transport services (-13K) and manufacturing (-12K). By contrast, the leisure sector continued to boom, adding 92K jobs.
However, the picture is not so clear-cut. The job vacancy data for August, published on Tuesday, showed an increase in job vacancies from 8.92 million to 9.61 million in August. This improvement sparked a strong selloff in equities and a rally in the dollar, fuelling expectations of further Fed tightening.
Now, we are seeing an outright contradiction in the employment indicators ahead of Friday's official employment report for September. According to yesterday's logic, a weak labour market is positive for the equity market and a reason for at least a corrective pullback in the dollar, which is in its 12th week of strengthening against a basket of major currencies.
This week will also see the release of ISM data, weekly jobless claims and the Challenger layoff index. These will illuminate the employment picture and influence Friday's NFP release expectations.
Now, we are seeing an outright contradiction in the employment indicators ahead of Friday's official employment report for September. According to yesterday's logic, a weak labour market is positive for the equity market and a reason for at least a corrective pullback in the dollar, which is in its 12th week of strengthening against a basket of major currencies.
This week will also see the release of ISM data, weekly jobless claims and the Challenger layoff index. These will illuminate the employment picture and influence Friday's NFP release expectations.
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#WaveAnalysis
#CHFJPY reversed from support level 160.00
Likely to rise to resistance level 164.00
CHFJPY currency pair recently reversed up from the key support level 160.00 (which has been reversing the pair from July), lower daily Bollinger Band and 50% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from February.
The upward reversal from the support level 160.00 stopped the C-wave of the intermediate ABC correction (4) from the end of August.
Given the clear daily uptrend and the reversal of the yen sentiment, CHFJPY can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 164.00 (top of the previous wave ii).
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#CHFJPY reversed from support level 160.00
Likely to rise to resistance level 164.00
CHFJPY currency pair recently reversed up from the key support level 160.00 (which has been reversing the pair from July), lower daily Bollinger Band and 50% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from February.
The upward reversal from the support level 160.00 stopped the C-wave of the intermediate ABC correction (4) from the end of August.
Given the clear daily uptrend and the reversal of the yen sentiment, CHFJPY can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 164.00 (top of the previous wave ii).
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#crypto market cap is struggling to break above the $1.09 trillion, having turned south from that level on Thursday morning, bringing the total market valuation down to $1.084 trillion.
#Bitcoin continues to tend to sell on growth, failing to make a fresh attack on the 200-day. Bitcoin has recently outperformed the stock market but is now retreating against the buying in the indices. In the short term, bitcoin seems more at risk of falling than rising.
#Ethereum also seems to be on the bears' side, losing for the fifth consecutive session, tied to the downward-sloping 50-day moving average.
#XRP has been trading at arm's length from its 200-day moving average since the second half of August, most of the time acting as resistance.
The entire cryptocurrency market seems to be waiting for a substantial pullback in the top coins to buy in for the long term.
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#Bitcoin continues to tend to sell on growth, failing to make a fresh attack on the 200-day. Bitcoin has recently outperformed the stock market but is now retreating against the buying in the indices. In the short term, bitcoin seems more at risk of falling than rising.
#Ethereum also seems to be on the bears' side, losing for the fifth consecutive session, tied to the downward-sloping 50-day moving average.
#XRP has been trading at arm's length from its 200-day moving average since the second half of August, most of the time acting as resistance.
The entire cryptocurrency market seems to be waiting for a substantial pullback in the top coins to buy in for the long term.
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⏰US Non-farm Payrolls will be released at 12:30 GMT today. The US economy is expected to create 170K new jobs in September ⚒
🫰Besides, keep an eye on Average Hourly Earnings which is expected to keep growth at 4.3% y/y📈
💲 Numbers above forecasts can positively impact USD, sparking expectations for further rate hikes from the Fed🏦
🫰Besides, keep an eye on Average Hourly Earnings which is expected to keep growth at 4.3% y/y📈
💲 Numbers above forecasts can positively impact USD, sparking expectations for further rate hikes from the Fed🏦
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#WaveAnalysis
#CADJPY reversed from powerful resistance level 110.35
Likely to fall to support level 106.7
CADJPY currency pair recently reversed down from the powerful resistance level 110.35 (which stopped the previous weekly uptrend in 2022) standing near the upper weekly daily Bollinger Band.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 110.35 is currently forming the weekly Evening Star – strong sell signal for this currency pair.
Given the bearish divergence one the weekly Stochastic, CADJPY currency pair can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 106.7.
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#CADJPY reversed from powerful resistance level 110.35
Likely to fall to support level 106.7
CADJPY currency pair recently reversed down from the powerful resistance level 110.35 (which stopped the previous weekly uptrend in 2022) standing near the upper weekly daily Bollinger Band.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 110.35 is currently forming the weekly Evening Star – strong sell signal for this currency pair.
Given the bearish divergence one the weekly Stochastic, CADJPY currency pair can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 106.7.
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#WaveAnalysis
#GBPUSD reversed from support level 1.2050
Likely to rise to resistance level 1.2265
GBPUSD currency pair recently reversed up from the key support level 1.2050 (former pivotal support from March) coinciding with the support trendline of the daily down channel from July.
The upward reversal from the support level 1.2050 created the daily Morning Star – strong buy signal for this currency pair.
Given the rising bullish sterling sentiment, GBPUSD currency pair can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 1.2265 (top of wave 2 from last month).
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#GBPUSD reversed from support level 1.2050
Likely to rise to resistance level 1.2265
GBPUSD currency pair recently reversed up from the key support level 1.2050 (former pivotal support from March) coinciding with the support trendline of the daily down channel from July.
The upward reversal from the support level 1.2050 created the daily Morning Star – strong buy signal for this currency pair.
Given the rising bullish sterling sentiment, GBPUSD currency pair can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 1.2265 (top of wave 2 from last month).
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#WaveAnalysis #US30
Dow Jones reversed from support level 32875.00
Likely to rise to resistance level 33875.00
Dow Jones index recently reversed up from the pivotal support level 32875.00 (which has been reversing the price from May), coinciding with the lower daily Bollinger Band and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from March.
The upward reversal from the support level 32875.00 stopped the c-wave of the active ABC correction 2 from the end of July.
Given the still oversold daily Stochastic, Dow Jones index can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 33875.00 (top of the earlier wave iv).
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Dow Jones reversed from support level 32875.00
Likely to rise to resistance level 33875.00
Dow Jones index recently reversed up from the pivotal support level 32875.00 (which has been reversing the price from May), coinciding with the lower daily Bollinger Band and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from March.
The upward reversal from the support level 32875.00 stopped the c-wave of the active ABC correction 2 from the end of July.
Given the still oversold daily Stochastic, Dow Jones index can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 33875.00 (top of the earlier wave iv).
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#WaveAnalysis
#AUDJPY reversed from support level 93.00
Likely to rise to resistance level 96.00
AUDJPY currency pair recently reversed up from the key support level 93.00 (former monthly high from February) coinciding with the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from March.
The upward reversal from the support level 93.00 started the active short-term impulse wave 3.
Given the strengthening yen sales, AUDJPY currency pair can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 96.00 (which reversed the pair last month).
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#AUDJPY reversed from support level 93.00
Likely to rise to resistance level 96.00
AUDJPY currency pair recently reversed up from the key support level 93.00 (former monthly high from February) coinciding with the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from March.
The upward reversal from the support level 93.00 started the active short-term impulse wave 3.
Given the strengthening yen sales, AUDJPY currency pair can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 96.00 (which reversed the pair last month).
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#Crypto cap is down 3.2% for the week to $1.09 trillion. However, this is more of a high base effect due to a solid start to October.
#Bitcoin remains in an uptrend but ran into resistance at its 200-day MA over the weekend. Having lost its ability to rally, it has returned to the general crypto market, where the major altcoins remained under pressure for most of last week.
All eyes will be on BTCUSD to see if it can successfully consolidate above $28K, the 200-day MA. If it does, we can expect a quick rise to $29.0K-$29.3K.
If the pressure on risk assets all eyes will be on the $27.2K-27.0K area. Without significant support here, we could be talking about a change from a short-term trend to a downtrend.
#Ethereum is creeping lower, leaving the 50-day MA as resistance. This is a bearish signal. In case the markets develop a decline, it is worth paying attention to the dynamics of the second largest cryptocurrency near $1580. A failure to hold here will open the way for a rapid decline.
#Bitcoin remains in an uptrend but ran into resistance at its 200-day MA over the weekend. Having lost its ability to rally, it has returned to the general crypto market, where the major altcoins remained under pressure for most of last week.
All eyes will be on BTCUSD to see if it can successfully consolidate above $28K, the 200-day MA. If it does, we can expect a quick rise to $29.0K-$29.3K.
If the pressure on risk assets all eyes will be on the $27.2K-27.0K area. Without significant support here, we could be talking about a change from a short-term trend to a downtrend.
#Ethereum is creeping lower, leaving the 50-day MA as resistance. This is a bearish signal. In case the markets develop a decline, it is worth paying attention to the dynamics of the second largest cryptocurrency near $1580. A failure to hold here will open the way for a rapid decline.
#Gold climbed close to $1855 per troy ounce in early trading on Monday and stabilised in a relatively narrow range of $1845-1853 during the European session. The rise from Friday's lows of $1810 resulted from a combination of three factors. However, they all appear to be short-term and promise the evolution of an interesting situation.
Gold came into last Friday's session having built up an impressive oversold condition, losing almost every day since the 20th, falling 7% to a low near $1810. This sell-off has taken the daily RSI to 19, an extremely oversold level last seen in July 2015. An asset is considered oversold when the RSI falls below 30, and a reading below 20 is a rare event that at least a short-term bounce has always followed.
Gold buying on Friday was supported by rising risk appetite in equity markets as tepid wage growth figures accompanied robust employment data. As a result, US bond yields fell on expectations that the Fed would avoid further policy tightening.
Gold came into last Friday's session having built up an impressive oversold condition, losing almost every day since the 20th, falling 7% to a low near $1810. This sell-off has taken the daily RSI to 19, an extremely oversold level last seen in July 2015. An asset is considered oversold when the RSI falls below 30, and a reading below 20 is a rare event that at least a short-term bounce has always followed.
Gold buying on Friday was supported by rising risk appetite in equity markets as tepid wage growth figures accompanied robust employment data. As a result, US bond yields fell on expectations that the Fed would avoid further policy tightening.
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On Monday, gold opened with a gap higher on the back of clashes between Israel and Hamas. However, the latest move is more of a knee-jerk reaction to the news than a sustained, extended move. Still, gold bullion is hardly the quickest and easiest way to protect capital from war these days: transferring wealth into another currency or bank is much easier and more efficient.
We should, therefore, be prepared for the recent rally in gold to be reinforced by short-term profit-taking, which will only encourage the bears.
The classic Fibonacci retracement pattern suggests a potential upside to $1862, or 61.8% of the original downside amplitude. However, today's top coincides with the rally we saw in gold in late February and early March. Very soon after, the market turned to a new round of declines.
We should, therefore, be prepared for the recent rally in gold to be reinforced by short-term profit-taking, which will only encourage the bears.
The classic Fibonacci retracement pattern suggests a potential upside to $1862, or 61.8% of the original downside amplitude. However, today's top coincides with the rally we saw in gold in late February and early March. Very soon after, the market turned to a new round of declines.
The triumph of the bears was then prevented by the crisis in regional banks in the US, which led to a rush into gold and the major cryptocurrencies. The 50-week moving average was the technical support at the time. Now, the 200-week moving average is taking on the role of support.
Gold may make another attempt to break below $1810 in the coming days. We could see a quick fall to $1760 if the bears succeed.
At the same time, we cannot completely rule out the possibility that gold will start to look attractive to long-term buyers from these levels, having begun another gentle climb.
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Gold may make another attempt to break below $1810 in the coming days. We could see a quick fall to $1760 if the bears succeed.
At the same time, we cannot completely rule out the possibility that gold will start to look attractive to long-term buyers from these levels, having begun another gentle climb.
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#WaveAnalysis
#Brent crude oil reversed from support level 83.15
Likely to rise to resistance level 90.00
Brent crude oil recently reversed up from the support level 83.15 (which has been repeatedly reversing the price from the start of August), coinciding with the lower daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from June.
The upward reversal from the support level 83.15 is currently forming the daily candlesticks reversal pattern Morning Star Doji.
Given the still oversold daily Stochastic, Brent crude oil can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 90.00.
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#Brent crude oil reversed from support level 83.15
Likely to rise to resistance level 90.00
Brent crude oil recently reversed up from the support level 83.15 (which has been repeatedly reversing the price from the start of August), coinciding with the lower daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from June.
The upward reversal from the support level 83.15 is currently forming the daily candlesticks reversal pattern Morning Star Doji.
Given the still oversold daily Stochastic, Brent crude oil can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 90.00.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
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