#Crypto
The crypto market cap has risen over 2.7% in the last 24 hours to over $1.11 trillion.
#Bitcoin managed to hold above its 50-day MA over the weekend, which it surpassed in a strong move on the 28th of September.
BTCUSD surged over $1000 with a 4% gain, hitting a 7-week high of $28.3K. Contrary to the upward momentum at the end of last week, the intraday rally may be too stretched for now. After a long march, the price touched the technically and emotionally important 200-day moving average (currently $28K). There is a risk that we could see a repeat of the August 29 reversal to the downside. But that's a risk, not the main scenario.
Bitcoin ended September up 4.1% at $27.1K, bucking the seasonal trend of the worst month of the year, which was hard to expect in an environment of a rising dollar and a falling S&P 500. Over the past 12 years, bitcoin has ended October higher on eight occasions. The average gain was 29.6%, and the average loss was 15.2%.
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The crypto market cap has risen over 2.7% in the last 24 hours to over $1.11 trillion.
#Bitcoin managed to hold above its 50-day MA over the weekend, which it surpassed in a strong move on the 28th of September.
BTCUSD surged over $1000 with a 4% gain, hitting a 7-week high of $28.3K. Contrary to the upward momentum at the end of last week, the intraday rally may be too stretched for now. After a long march, the price touched the technically and emotionally important 200-day moving average (currently $28K). There is a risk that we could see a repeat of the August 29 reversal to the downside. But that's a risk, not the main scenario.
Bitcoin ended September up 4.1% at $27.1K, bucking the seasonal trend of the worst month of the year, which was hard to expect in an environment of a rising dollar and a falling S&P 500. Over the past 12 years, bitcoin has ended October higher on eight occasions. The average gain was 29.6%, and the average loss was 15.2%.
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#Review
#Gold lost almost 4% last week to $1835, the biggest drop in over two years.
Gold's sell-off last week looked like a capitulation of the bulls, with a break of multi-month support. It is often at times like this that market inflexion points are formed.
The last time gold traded at such a low was over six months ago, when the US regional banking crisis triggered an influx of buyers, pushing the price away from support around $1810.
In the short term, gold is oversold, creating the potential for a corrective bounce. On the daily chart, the RSI oscillator has dropped to 21.6. The last time the indicator recorded such low levels was in June and August 2018, when a reversal from decline to growth was forming in gold for the following years.
#Gold lost almost 4% last week to $1835, the biggest drop in over two years.
Gold's sell-off last week looked like a capitulation of the bulls, with a break of multi-month support. It is often at times like this that market inflexion points are formed.
The last time gold traded at such a low was over six months ago, when the US regional banking crisis triggered an influx of buyers, pushing the price away from support around $1810.
In the short term, gold is oversold, creating the potential for a corrective bounce. On the daily chart, the RSI oscillator has dropped to 21.6. The last time the indicator recorded such low levels was in June and August 2018, when a reversal from decline to growth was forming in gold for the following years.
It may well be that this acceleration in gold's decline is a sign that the fall is nearing its end, but it is still a case where it is better to be a little late to the rally than to buy in.
After falling below $1890, gold has been in thin air territory since March with no significant support levels. The nearest support remains at $1810. Around this level, gold found buyers with deep pockets in March.
Not far from this level is the 200-week moving average. This is an essential indicator of the ultra-long-term trend. Over the past six years, gold has been bought on dips below this line, keeping it below 3.5%. This lower line of defence is not far from $1750.
If a further $80 drop from current levels is not appetising enough for long-term buyers, a new bear market in gold will have to be established.
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After falling below $1890, gold has been in thin air territory since March with no significant support levels. The nearest support remains at $1810. Around this level, gold found buyers with deep pockets in March.
Not far from this level is the 200-week moving average. This is an essential indicator of the ultra-long-term trend. Over the past six years, gold has been bought on dips below this line, keeping it below 3.5%. This lower line of defence is not far from $1750.
If a further $80 drop from current levels is not appetising enough for long-term buyers, a new bear market in gold will have to be established.
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#WaveAnalysis
#EURCHF reversed from resistance level 0.9680
Likely to fall to support level 0.9600
EURCHF currency pair recently reversed down from the key resistance level 0.9680 (former strong support from May) intersecting with the upper daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from June.
The resistance level 0.9680 was strengthened by the resistance trendline of the daily down channel from February.
Given the clear daily downtrend, EURCHF can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 0.9600 (former resistance from August).
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#EURCHF reversed from resistance level 0.9680
Likely to fall to support level 0.9600
EURCHF currency pair recently reversed down from the key resistance level 0.9680 (former strong support from May) intersecting with the upper daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from June.
The resistance level 0.9680 was strengthened by the resistance trendline of the daily down channel from February.
Given the clear daily downtrend, EURCHF can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 0.9600 (former resistance from August).
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#WaveAnalysis
#GBPCHF reversed from resistance level 1.1200
Likely to fall to support level 1.1070
GBPCHF currency pair earlier reversed down from the key resistance level 1.1200 (which has been reversing the pair from July) intersecting with the upper weekly Bollinger Band and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse (1) from June.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 1.1200 started the active short-term impulse wave 3.
Given the strength of the Swiss franc inflows, GBPCHF can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 1.1070 (which has been reversing the pair from April).
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#GBPCHF reversed from resistance level 1.1200
Likely to fall to support level 1.1070
GBPCHF currency pair earlier reversed down from the key resistance level 1.1200 (which has been reversing the pair from July) intersecting with the upper weekly Bollinger Band and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse (1) from June.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 1.1200 started the active short-term impulse wave 3.
Given the strength of the Swiss franc inflows, GBPCHF can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 1.1070 (which has been reversing the pair from April).
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Crypto market cap fell by 2.5% to $1.09 trillion. The market failed to accelerate but remains in an uptrend despite the general decline in demand for risk assets.
After peaking above $28.5K on Monday, #Bitcoin gradually slid shortly after the main US session. At one point on Tuesday morning, the price fell to $27.3K, where the first cryptocurrency found buyers. However, it's easy to see that buyers dominate in a calm state. Excluding short-term spikes and pullbacks, it is easy to see a steady upward trend since the 25th of September.
Bitcoin received support when it touched the area of previous highs, turning resistance into support. This is a bullish sign that sets up another test of the 200-day ($28K) with potential for further strength.
According to CoinShares, investments in crypto funds rose by $21 million last week after six weeks of outflows. Bitcoin investments increased by $20 million, while Ethereum investments fell by $1.5 million. Solana investments rose sharply, up $5 million at a time.
After peaking above $28.5K on Monday, #Bitcoin gradually slid shortly after the main US session. At one point on Tuesday morning, the price fell to $27.3K, where the first cryptocurrency found buyers. However, it's easy to see that buyers dominate in a calm state. Excluding short-term spikes and pullbacks, it is easy to see a steady upward trend since the 25th of September.
Bitcoin received support when it touched the area of previous highs, turning resistance into support. This is a bullish sign that sets up another test of the 200-day ($28K) with potential for further strength.
According to CoinShares, investments in crypto funds rose by $21 million last week after six weeks of outflows. Bitcoin investments increased by $20 million, while Ethereum investments fell by $1.5 million. Solana investments rose sharply, up $5 million at a time.
Oil prices fell for the fourth session in a row after hitting 13-month highs. The spot price of a barrel of WTI approached $94 in what looked like a desperate last-ditch attempt by the bulls to assert their superiority.
However, this appeared to be the third wave of gains in the rally since the price collapse in June. Since last Thursday, intraday rallies have been suppressed by heavy sell orders. WTI briefly dipped below $87 on Tuesday, down 7.5% from last week's peak.
Concerns over a slowing global economy triggered heavy sell orders that overwhelmed intraday rallies. This sustained pressure appears to be more than just a moment of market cooling and is in line with the typical wave pattern, which now suggests three downward impulses.
Last month, RSI formed a divergence on a daily timeframe. This is often a sign of exhaustion of bullish momentum.
The next downside target is the $84.4, where there are 50-day MA and local peaks in early August and mid-April.
However, this appeared to be the third wave of gains in the rally since the price collapse in June. Since last Thursday, intraday rallies have been suppressed by heavy sell orders. WTI briefly dipped below $87 on Tuesday, down 7.5% from last week's peak.
Concerns over a slowing global economy triggered heavy sell orders that overwhelmed intraday rallies. This sustained pressure appears to be more than just a moment of market cooling and is in line with the typical wave pattern, which now suggests three downward impulses.
Last month, RSI formed a divergence on a daily timeframe. This is often a sign of exhaustion of bullish momentum.
The next downside target is the $84.4, where there are 50-day MA and local peaks in early August and mid-April.
Oil could go even lower. The global economic slowdown and falling final demand are now working against it.
Moreover, black gold has long been rising against a rising dollar and falling markets. And now it may well catch up with the markets, which are falling, with redoubled strength.
An essential signal from exporters: reports of rising oil exports from Russia and Saudi Arabia last month, reducing the market deficit and raising questions about whether the cartel's production ceiling is as firm as it seems.
More solid support for oil may only come with a drop to $78. That's the 50-week moving average, but we wouldn't be surprised to see a drop to $75 by the end of the year. These are high levels by historical standards, but they no longer look like a drag on the economy and a good reason for further policy tightening. From a global perspective, lower oil prices will now be a boon for equity indices rather than a sign of waning risk appetite, as is usually the case.
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Moreover, black gold has long been rising against a rising dollar and falling markets. And now it may well catch up with the markets, which are falling, with redoubled strength.
An essential signal from exporters: reports of rising oil exports from Russia and Saudi Arabia last month, reducing the market deficit and raising questions about whether the cartel's production ceiling is as firm as it seems.
More solid support for oil may only come with a drop to $78. That's the 50-week moving average, but we wouldn't be surprised to see a drop to $75 by the end of the year. These are high levels by historical standards, but they no longer look like a drag on the economy and a good reason for further policy tightening. From a global perspective, lower oil prices will now be a boon for equity indices rather than a sign of waning risk appetite, as is usually the case.
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#WaveAnalysis
#GBPAUD reversed from pivotal support level 1.8945
Likely to rise to resistance level 1.9400
GBPAUD currency pair recently reversed up from the pivotal support level 1.8945 (which has been repeatedly reversing the pair from the start of July) intersecting with the lower daily Bollinger Band and support trendline of the daily down channel from August.
The upward reversal from the support level 1.8945 stopped the C-wave from the start of September.
Given the clear daily uptrend and strong AUD sales across the FX markets, GBPAUD can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 1.9400.
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#GBPAUD reversed from pivotal support level 1.8945
Likely to rise to resistance level 1.9400
GBPAUD currency pair recently reversed up from the pivotal support level 1.8945 (which has been repeatedly reversing the pair from the start of July) intersecting with the lower daily Bollinger Band and support trendline of the daily down channel from August.
The upward reversal from the support level 1.8945 stopped the C-wave from the start of September.
Given the clear daily uptrend and strong AUD sales across the FX markets, GBPAUD can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 1.9400.
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#WaveAnalysis
#AUDCAD reversed from resistance level 0.8725
Likely to fall to support level 0.8575
AUDCAD currency pair recently reversed down from the pivotal resistance level 0.8725 (which has been repeatedly reversing the pair from the start of September) intersecting with the upper daily Bollinger Band and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from August.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 0.8725 continues the active downward impulse waves 3 and (3).
Given the clear daily downtrend, AUDCAD can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 0.8575 (previous monthly low from September).
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#AUDCAD reversed from resistance level 0.8725
Likely to fall to support level 0.8575
AUDCAD currency pair recently reversed down from the pivotal resistance level 0.8725 (which has been repeatedly reversing the pair from the start of September) intersecting with the upper daily Bollinger Band and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from August.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 0.8725 continues the active downward impulse waves 3 and (3).
Given the clear daily downtrend, AUDCAD can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 0.8575 (previous monthly low from September).
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⏰ISM Services PMI for September will be released at 14:00 GMT today. It is expected to drop from 54.5 to 53.5.
Generally, a value below 📉 50 indicates a contraction of activity compared to the previous month, while a value above 📈 50 means expansion.
💲 A number above forecasts can positively impact USD, sparking expectations for further rate hikes from the Fed.
Generally, a value below 📉 50 indicates a contraction of activity compared to the previous month, while a value above 📈 50 means expansion.
💲 A number above forecasts can positively impact USD, sparking expectations for further rate hikes from the Fed.
The #crypto market lost ground throughout Tuesday but has been attempting to turn around since Wednesday morning. So far, it seems to be following the sentiment of the stock market, which is trying to recover from the previous day's sell-off.
Despite Tuesday's pressure, #Bitcoin has remained in an uptrend for the past week. But the bears aren't giving up their red lines either, as BTCUSD remains below its 200-day moving average at $28,000. The ability to consolidate above it could trigger an intensification of buying. But for now, it's best to stay on the sidelines.
This is especially true as #Ethereum is in a tight sell-off. It has lost almost evenly for the fourth consecutive session and only finds sustainable buying when it touches the 50-day average. However, it is pointing down, so the move looks like an organised retreat.
Despite Tuesday's pressure, #Bitcoin has remained in an uptrend for the past week. But the bears aren't giving up their red lines either, as BTCUSD remains below its 200-day moving average at $28,000. The ability to consolidate above it could trigger an intensification of buying. But for now, it's best to stay on the sidelines.
This is especially true as #Ethereum is in a tight sell-off. It has lost almost evenly for the fourth consecutive session and only finds sustainable buying when it touches the 50-day average. However, it is pointing down, so the move looks like an organised retreat.
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The monthly ADP report showed a sharp slowdown in job creation. The company estimated private sector job gains at 89K, down by half for the month and significantly weaker than the 150K expected.
A breakdown by firm size shows a curious pattern. Large firms (500+ employees) shed a net 83k jobs, while small firms added staff: +67k in enterprises with 1-19 employees. Smaller enterprises seem to have adapted better to the changing economy, while the largest are falling victim to tighter financial conditions.
The hardest hit sectors were office activities (-32K), transport services (-13K) and manufacturing (-12K). By contrast, the leisure sector continued to boom, adding 92K jobs.
A breakdown by firm size shows a curious pattern. Large firms (500+ employees) shed a net 83k jobs, while small firms added staff: +67k in enterprises with 1-19 employees. Smaller enterprises seem to have adapted better to the changing economy, while the largest are falling victim to tighter financial conditions.
The hardest hit sectors were office activities (-32K), transport services (-13K) and manufacturing (-12K). By contrast, the leisure sector continued to boom, adding 92K jobs.
However, the picture is not so clear-cut. The job vacancy data for August, published on Tuesday, showed an increase in job vacancies from 8.92 million to 9.61 million in August. This improvement sparked a strong selloff in equities and a rally in the dollar, fuelling expectations of further Fed tightening.
Now, we are seeing an outright contradiction in the employment indicators ahead of Friday's official employment report for September. According to yesterday's logic, a weak labour market is positive for the equity market and a reason for at least a corrective pullback in the dollar, which is in its 12th week of strengthening against a basket of major currencies.
This week will also see the release of ISM data, weekly jobless claims and the Challenger layoff index. These will illuminate the employment picture and influence Friday's NFP release expectations.
Now, we are seeing an outright contradiction in the employment indicators ahead of Friday's official employment report for September. According to yesterday's logic, a weak labour market is positive for the equity market and a reason for at least a corrective pullback in the dollar, which is in its 12th week of strengthening against a basket of major currencies.
This week will also see the release of ISM data, weekly jobless claims and the Challenger layoff index. These will illuminate the employment picture and influence Friday's NFP release expectations.
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#WaveAnalysis
#CHFJPY reversed from support level 160.00
Likely to rise to resistance level 164.00
CHFJPY currency pair recently reversed up from the key support level 160.00 (which has been reversing the pair from July), lower daily Bollinger Band and 50% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from February.
The upward reversal from the support level 160.00 stopped the C-wave of the intermediate ABC correction (4) from the end of August.
Given the clear daily uptrend and the reversal of the yen sentiment, CHFJPY can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 164.00 (top of the previous wave ii).
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#CHFJPY reversed from support level 160.00
Likely to rise to resistance level 164.00
CHFJPY currency pair recently reversed up from the key support level 160.00 (which has been reversing the pair from July), lower daily Bollinger Band and 50% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from February.
The upward reversal from the support level 160.00 stopped the C-wave of the intermediate ABC correction (4) from the end of August.
Given the clear daily uptrend and the reversal of the yen sentiment, CHFJPY can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 164.00 (top of the previous wave ii).
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#crypto market cap is struggling to break above the $1.09 trillion, having turned south from that level on Thursday morning, bringing the total market valuation down to $1.084 trillion.
#Bitcoin continues to tend to sell on growth, failing to make a fresh attack on the 200-day. Bitcoin has recently outperformed the stock market but is now retreating against the buying in the indices. In the short term, bitcoin seems more at risk of falling than rising.
#Ethereum also seems to be on the bears' side, losing for the fifth consecutive session, tied to the downward-sloping 50-day moving average.
#XRP has been trading at arm's length from its 200-day moving average since the second half of August, most of the time acting as resistance.
The entire cryptocurrency market seems to be waiting for a substantial pullback in the top coins to buy in for the long term.
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#Bitcoin continues to tend to sell on growth, failing to make a fresh attack on the 200-day. Bitcoin has recently outperformed the stock market but is now retreating against the buying in the indices. In the short term, bitcoin seems more at risk of falling than rising.
#Ethereum also seems to be on the bears' side, losing for the fifth consecutive session, tied to the downward-sloping 50-day moving average.
#XRP has been trading at arm's length from its 200-day moving average since the second half of August, most of the time acting as resistance.
The entire cryptocurrency market seems to be waiting for a substantial pullback in the top coins to buy in for the long term.
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