Crypto market cap fell to $1.04 trillion from $1.06 at the start of last week. The Crypto's Fear and Greed Index briefly dipped into Fear territory at the end of the week but returned to Neutral (47) on Monday.
Bitcoin has been unable to break out of its sideways for a prolonged period. Trading at $26.1K at the start of Monday's session, it's down just 1.5% over the past 24 hours, 2% over the past seven days, and 0.5% from its level 30 days ago. The 50-day moving average remains active resistance. If the bearish momentum develops, we will closely monitor the dynamics around $25.8K, the previous consolidation area. A failure here could trigger a rapid decline to $25.8K. If the coin doesn't get bought back here as well a direct path to $20K will open.
Ethereum is still unsuccessfully trying to find support and is trading below $1580. And this downtrend is revealing the general sentiment of market participants, where the risk appetite is diminishing. The move towards $1400 may have already begun.
Bitcoin has been unable to break out of its sideways for a prolonged period. Trading at $26.1K at the start of Monday's session, it's down just 1.5% over the past 24 hours, 2% over the past seven days, and 0.5% from its level 30 days ago. The 50-day moving average remains active resistance. If the bearish momentum develops, we will closely monitor the dynamics around $25.8K, the previous consolidation area. A failure here could trigger a rapid decline to $25.8K. If the coin doesn't get bought back here as well a direct path to $20K will open.
Ethereum is still unsuccessfully trying to find support and is trading below $1580. And this downtrend is revealing the general sentiment of market participants, where the risk appetite is diminishing. The move towards $1400 may have already begun.
👍1
Has the German business climate bottomed out?
Germany's Ifo business climate index held steady in September at the previous month's level despite expectations of further deterioration.
The business climate indicator fell from 85.8 to 85.7, better than the expected 85.1 but still the lowest since mid-2020. Excluding this spike, the only time in modern history that sentiment was worse was in the nine months between November 2008 and July 2009.
The Current Situation Index is trying to find a floor, falling from 89.0 to 88.7. Expectations have slightly improved, with the relevant component rising from 82.7 to 82.9. It may be too early to talk about a turnaround, but previous turning points in this component have coincided with the EURUSD's turnaround in the following months. From this perspective, it is a reliable leading indicator for the markets.
Germany's Ifo business climate index held steady in September at the previous month's level despite expectations of further deterioration.
The business climate indicator fell from 85.8 to 85.7, better than the expected 85.1 but still the lowest since mid-2020. Excluding this spike, the only time in modern history that sentiment was worse was in the nine months between November 2008 and July 2009.
The Current Situation Index is trying to find a floor, falling from 89.0 to 88.7. Expectations have slightly improved, with the relevant component rising from 82.7 to 82.9. It may be too early to talk about a turnaround, but previous turning points in this component have coincided with the EURUSD's turnaround in the following months. From this perspective, it is a reliable leading indicator for the markets.
On previous occasions, however, the expectations index reversed sharply because of monetary easing and fiscal stimulus. This is not the case now, and the improvement in sentiment is in response to a period of low gas prices and slowing inflation. However, neither the issue of reliable gas supplies and energy prices in general nor the slowdown in inflation has been resolved.
Moreover, the ECB raised interest rates less than two weeks ago, in contrast to sharp cuts on previous occasions when business sentiment in Germany and the eurozone was similarly low. A further deterioration in sentiment cannot be ruled out without support from the government and ECB measures. In these circumstances, the scenario of a weaker single currency directly correlated with risk appetite remains a priority.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
Moreover, the ECB raised interest rates less than two weeks ago, in contrast to sharp cuts on previous occasions when business sentiment in Germany and the eurozone was similarly low. A further deterioration in sentiment cannot be ruled out without support from the government and ECB measures. In these circumstances, the scenario of a weaker single currency directly correlated with risk appetite remains a priority.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
📺Welcome back to another episode of Pro News!
In this week's recap, we delve into the Fed's surprising stance on interest rates and its impact on the US dollar.
Gold's battle to maintain its value amid shifting economic tides is examined, along with the turbulent ride of the Nasdaq 100 in response to rising interest rates.
We explore the resurgence of crude oil prices and its potential impact on inflation.
Plus, we dissect the cryptocurrency market's recent performance, with Bitcoin facing critical levels.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dEenU8sr4Xc
In this week's recap, we delve into the Fed's surprising stance on interest rates and its impact on the US dollar.
Gold's battle to maintain its value amid shifting economic tides is examined, along with the turbulent ride of the Nasdaq 100 in response to rising interest rates.
We explore the resurgence of crude oil prices and its potential impact on inflation.
Plus, we dissect the cryptocurrency market's recent performance, with Bitcoin facing critical levels.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dEenU8sr4Xc
YouTube
Weekly Pro Analysis | Fed's Hawkish Turn, Gold's Battle, Market Tumult, and Oil's Rally
Welcome back to another episode of Pro News! In this week's recap, we delve into the Fed's surprising stance on interest rates and its impact on the US dollar. Gold's battle to maintain its value amid shifting economic tides is examined, along with the turbulent…
German DAX40 heading for deeper correction
There is growing evidence that equity markets are amid a deep correction from the run-up that began almost 12 months ago. The reaction of Europe's significant indices in recent days has been telling.
The German DAX40 fell below its 200-day moving average at the end of last week and is trading below it on Monday, coinciding with a critical support line at 15500.
German DAX40 heading for deeper correction
There is growing evidence that equity markets are amid a deep correction from the run-up that began almost 12 months ago. The reaction of Europe's significant indices in recent days has been telling.
The German DAX40 fell below its 200-day moving average at the end of last week and is trading below it on Monday, coinciding with a critical support line at 15500.
There is growing evidence that equity markets are amid a deep correction from the run-up that began almost 12 months ago. The reaction of Europe's significant indices in recent days has been telling.
The German DAX40 fell below its 200-day moving average at the end of last week and is trading below it on Monday, coinciding with a critical support line at 15500.
German DAX40 heading for deeper correction
There is growing evidence that equity markets are amid a deep correction from the run-up that began almost 12 months ago. The reaction of Europe's significant indices in recent days has been telling.
The German DAX40 fell below its 200-day moving average at the end of last week and is trading below it on Monday, coinciding with a critical support line at 15500.
As is often the case, the downward reversal followed the final capitulation of the bears in the last days of July, when the DAX40 hit a multi-year high above 16500.
A few days later, the 50-day moving average became a resistance level, and the sell-off intensified when it was breached. The final reversal from upside to downside occurred on 15 September, and the new momentum took the index to new local lows.
The classic Fibonacci pattern suggests a corrective pullback will take the index to 61.8% of the original advance from 3 October last year. This line is near 14700.
Another potentially attractive target for the bears could be the 14600 area, a pivot level from March last year. However, the DAX40 could go as high as 15000 rather quickly without encountering any significant support.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
A few days later, the 50-day moving average became a resistance level, and the sell-off intensified when it was breached. The final reversal from upside to downside occurred on 15 September, and the new momentum took the index to new local lows.
The classic Fibonacci pattern suggests a corrective pullback will take the index to 61.8% of the original advance from 3 October last year. This line is near 14700.
Another potentially attractive target for the bears could be the 14600 area, a pivot level from March last year. However, the DAX40 could go as high as 15000 rather quickly without encountering any significant support.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
#WaveAnalysis
#EURCAD broke support level 1.4290
Likely to fall to support level 1.4200
EURCAD today broke below the key support level 1.4290 (which has been reversing the price from the start of January as can be seen below).
The breakout of the support level 1.4290 accelerated the C-wave of the active ABC correction (2) from the middle of July.
Given the bearish euro sentiment seen across the FX markets today, EURCAD can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 1.4200 (target for the completion of the active C-wave).
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
#EURCAD broke support level 1.4290
Likely to fall to support level 1.4200
EURCAD today broke below the key support level 1.4290 (which has been reversing the price from the start of January as can be seen below).
The breakout of the support level 1.4290 accelerated the C-wave of the active ABC correction (2) from the middle of July.
Given the bearish euro sentiment seen across the FX markets today, EURCAD can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 1.4200 (target for the completion of the active C-wave).
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
#WaveAnalysis
#Gold reversed from key resistance level 1950.00
Likely to fall to support level 1900.00
Gold recently reversed down from the key resistance level 1950.00 (top of wave I from the start of this month) intersecting with the upper daily Bollinger Band.
The resistance level 1950.00 was further strengthened by the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the previous downward impulse (C) from July.
Gold can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 1900.00 (low of the previous minor correction ii).
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
#Gold reversed from key resistance level 1950.00
Likely to fall to support level 1900.00
Gold recently reversed down from the key resistance level 1950.00 (top of wave I from the start of this month) intersecting with the upper daily Bollinger Band.
The resistance level 1950.00 was further strengthened by the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the previous downward impulse (C) from July.
Gold can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 1900.00 (low of the previous minor correction ii).
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
🔥2👍1
The crypto market cap approached 1.05 trillion (+0.9% in 24h). On Monday evening, the crypto market recouped its losses following the US stock indices, but since Tuesday morning, there has been renewed selling on weaker Chinese stocks.
#Bitcoin closed lower on Monday, remaining in the clutches of the bears after touching the 50-day MA a week ago. With markets still under pressure, the focus remains on the first cryptocurrency's momentum in the $25.0K-$25.6K area. Without confident buying in this area, be prepared for a failure towards $20K on weak hand capitulation.
#XRP is giving up ground after a failed attempt to get back above the 200-day MA. Although it is pointing up, it acts as solid resistance in September. The pressure in the equity markets is not helping.
It forms a death cross after Ethereum and BTC. From the current level of $0.4980, $0.46 is a critical support level, where several supports and the 50-week MA are concentrated.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
#Bitcoin closed lower on Monday, remaining in the clutches of the bears after touching the 50-day MA a week ago. With markets still under pressure, the focus remains on the first cryptocurrency's momentum in the $25.0K-$25.6K area. Without confident buying in this area, be prepared for a failure towards $20K on weak hand capitulation.
#XRP is giving up ground after a failed attempt to get back above the 200-day MA. Although it is pointing up, it acts as solid resistance in September. The pressure in the equity markets is not helping.
It forms a death cross after Ethereum and BTC. From the current level of $0.4980, $0.46 is a critical support level, where several supports and the 50-week MA are concentrated.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
The Pound fell too fast: likely to rebound
The British Pound lost ground against the Dollar for the fifth consecutive session, falling below the 1.2200 level. GBPUSD is down 4% since the beginning of the month, when pressure on the Pound intensified, and 7.3% from July's peak.
Fundamentally, the latest phase of the Pound's sell-off is due to the Bank of England's softer-than-expected response to the latest inflation report. The technical reason is the break below the 200-day moving average, which has prompted some key market participants to revise their long-term outlook.
The last time the GBPUSD was this oversold on the RSI was about a year ago. This indicator has fallen as low as 20% on a daily timeframe. Last year, it was only lower for three days at the end of September, followed by an impressive reversal.
The British Pound lost ground against the Dollar for the fifth consecutive session, falling below the 1.2200 level. GBPUSD is down 4% since the beginning of the month, when pressure on the Pound intensified, and 7.3% from July's peak.
Fundamentally, the latest phase of the Pound's sell-off is due to the Bank of England's softer-than-expected response to the latest inflation report. The technical reason is the break below the 200-day moving average, which has prompted some key market participants to revise their long-term outlook.
The last time the GBPUSD was this oversold on the RSI was about a year ago. This indicator has fallen as low as 20% on a daily timeframe. Last year, it was only lower for three days at the end of September, followed by an impressive reversal.
👍1
However, the situation is not directly comparable. Then, there was a real exodus from the Pound, with a fall to historic lows of just over 1.03.
The current decline is similar to what we saw in May 2018 or October 2016. GBPUSD then temporarily recovered 40-50% of the initial losses before resuming the downward movement.
From current levels, a corrective bounce in the Pound could take the pair back to 1.2320, an area of previous support with a high probability of becoming resistant.
A more ambitious target for the bulls is 1.2430, with a 200-day moving average and two downward reversals, in December and in January.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
The current decline is similar to what we saw in May 2018 or October 2016. GBPUSD then temporarily recovered 40-50% of the initial losses before resuming the downward movement.
From current levels, a corrective bounce in the Pound could take the pair back to 1.2320, an area of previous support with a high probability of becoming resistant.
A more ambitious target for the bulls is 1.2430, with a 200-day moving average and two downward reversals, in December and in January.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
❤1
The Dow Jones Index is on the verge of down-trend
The Dow Jones Index is testing the long-term trend's strength in the form of the 200-day moving average. The touching of this curve at the end of May and a brief dip below in March was characterised by increased buying. Are there enough buyers left in the markets to buy out the dive again? There are doubts.
The US Dow Jones has been trading below 34000 since the beginning of the week, back to the lows from early July, when we saw the last bullish attempt to warm up the market. Since August, the initiative has shifted to the bears, and they pretty quickly established a break of the medium-term trend in the form of the 50-day moving average.
Now, it is time to fight for the long-term trend in the form of the 200-day average. The German DAX40 and the pan-European Stoxx50 pulled back under those lines last week. Early last week, the Russell2000 - the broadest of the popular US indices - was also under this curve. And that only intensified the sell-off.
The Dow Jones Index is testing the long-term trend's strength in the form of the 200-day moving average. The touching of this curve at the end of May and a brief dip below in March was characterised by increased buying. Are there enough buyers left in the markets to buy out the dive again? There are doubts.
The US Dow Jones has been trading below 34000 since the beginning of the week, back to the lows from early July, when we saw the last bullish attempt to warm up the market. Since August, the initiative has shifted to the bears, and they pretty quickly established a break of the medium-term trend in the form of the 50-day moving average.
Now, it is time to fight for the long-term trend in the form of the 200-day average. The German DAX40 and the pan-European Stoxx50 pulled back under those lines last week. Early last week, the Russell2000 - the broadest of the popular US indices - was also under this curve. And that only intensified the sell-off.
This week, the US Dow Jones - the oldest of the modern indices - is testing the strength of the 200-day moving average. Based on previous instances, a close under 33800 would open Pandora's box, intensifying the sell-off.
In addition to breaking the uptrend, we will get confirmation that the market is on a deeper correction scenario, potentially heading for 33000 (61.8% of the October 2022 bottom to the July peak) after failing to cling to the 76.4% at 34000 (a shallower Fibonacci retracement).
We also note the change in the information backdrop. The pull away from risks, i.e. equities, is intensified by the disagreement on the budget, which could cause a US government shutdown. Fed officials are emphasising the chances of further interest rate hikes, while news media highlight the severity of current financial conditions for Americans.
This agenda reinforces the negative news backdrop, which could play into the hands of the bears in the short term, thus triggering a domino effect in another market benchmark.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
In addition to breaking the uptrend, we will get confirmation that the market is on a deeper correction scenario, potentially heading for 33000 (61.8% of the October 2022 bottom to the July peak) after failing to cling to the 76.4% at 34000 (a shallower Fibonacci retracement).
We also note the change in the information backdrop. The pull away from risks, i.e. equities, is intensified by the disagreement on the budget, which could cause a US government shutdown. Fed officials are emphasising the chances of further interest rate hikes, while news media highlight the severity of current financial conditions for Americans.
This agenda reinforces the negative news backdrop, which could play into the hands of the bears in the short term, thus triggering a domino effect in another market benchmark.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
👍1
#WaveAnalysis
#AUDCAD reversed from key support level 0.8630
Likely to rise to resistance level 0.8700
AUDCAD recently reversed up from the key support level 0.8630 (which has been repeatedly reversing the pair from last November) intersecting with the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from the support level 0.8630 follows the earlier upward reversal from the same support level – which formed the daily Bullish Engulfing.
Given the oversold daily Stochastic and the strength of the support level 0.8630, AUDCAD can be expected to rise toward the next resistance level 0.8700.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
#AUDCAD reversed from key support level 0.8630
Likely to rise to resistance level 0.8700
AUDCAD recently reversed up from the key support level 0.8630 (which has been repeatedly reversing the pair from last November) intersecting with the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from the support level 0.8630 follows the earlier upward reversal from the same support level – which formed the daily Bullish Engulfing.
Given the oversold daily Stochastic and the strength of the support level 0.8630, AUDCAD can be expected to rise toward the next resistance level 0.8700.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
👍1
#WaveAnalysis #US30
Dow Jones index broke key support level 34000
– Likely to fall to support level 33500
Dow Jones index recently broke key support level 34000 (low of the previous wave a) intersecting with the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous upward impulse from March.
The breakout of the support level 34000 was preceded by the breakout of the daily up channel from March – which accelerated the active wave ii.
Dow Jones index can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 33500, target for the completion of the active wave ii.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
Dow Jones index broke key support level 34000
– Likely to fall to support level 33500
Dow Jones index recently broke key support level 34000 (low of the previous wave a) intersecting with the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous upward impulse from March.
The breakout of the support level 34000 was preceded by the breakout of the daily up channel from March – which accelerated the active wave ii.
Dow Jones index can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 33500, target for the completion of the active wave ii.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
Despite the storm in the equity markets, the crypto market remains subdued, losing only 0.3% in 24 hours to $1.045 trillion.
The crypto market did not suddenly become a safe haven. Still, it only temporarily turned out to be of no interest to active speculators, as they focuses on technology giants and government bond prices.
#Bitcoin is trading near $26.2K on Wednesday morning, ending Tuesday with another decline. We don't see the selling accelerating, but for now, it's going on many popular coins like Ethereum, XRP and Solana all at once.
According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin spot trading volume fell 40 times from March peak last week.
According to Bitfinex, Bitcoin is in the period with the lowest volatility in the history of the asset.
Perhaps, before the revival of interest, we should see a final frontal liquidation of long positions. But only with worries about stocks and bonds, not with the bankruptcies of large crypto companies.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
The crypto market did not suddenly become a safe haven. Still, it only temporarily turned out to be of no interest to active speculators, as they focuses on technology giants and government bond prices.
#Bitcoin is trading near $26.2K on Wednesday morning, ending Tuesday with another decline. We don't see the selling accelerating, but for now, it's going on many popular coins like Ethereum, XRP and Solana all at once.
According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin spot trading volume fell 40 times from March peak last week.
According to Bitfinex, Bitcoin is in the period with the lowest volatility in the history of the asset.
Perhaps, before the revival of interest, we should see a final frontal liquidation of long positions. But only with worries about stocks and bonds, not with the bankruptcies of large crypto companies.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
The dollar index added for the 11th week in a row - one of the most persistent rallies in its history. But oil has been in a rally for even longer - 13 weeks - adding 35%, albeit with brief interruptions.
The rising dollar is putting pressure on the markets, and it’s easy to see this in key stock indices and even gold. Oil often falls with an even greater amplitude than stocks or other commodities.
But in recent weeks, oil has been aided by geopolitics, which has helped it climb in the form of tighter monetary policy and a slowdown in consumption in most countries.
The rise since the end of June can be divided into several phases with brief corrections at the end. The increase in the price of a barrel of WTI from $67 to $77 was the first stage.
The second stage lost strength in early August on the approach to $84, fitting nicely into a Fibonacci pattern with a 161.8% rise from the first impulse. The corrective pullback was halted on the path to the previous peak.
The rising dollar is putting pressure on the markets, and it’s easy to see this in key stock indices and even gold. Oil often falls with an even greater amplitude than stocks or other commodities.
But in recent weeks, oil has been aided by geopolitics, which has helped it climb in the form of tighter monetary policy and a slowdown in consumption in most countries.
The rise since the end of June can be divided into several phases with brief corrections at the end. The increase in the price of a barrel of WTI from $67 to $77 was the first stage.
The second stage lost strength in early August on the approach to $84, fitting nicely into a Fibonacci pattern with a 161.8% rise from the first impulse. The corrective pullback was halted on the path to the previous peak.
👍1
The next milestone is reaching 261.8% of the first impulse, just above $93. Last year’s October and November peaks are located near the same level. We should expect a significant intensification of the struggle between bulls and bears on the approach to this level.
Large speculative buyers may want to lock in profits at the end of the month and quarter after a stunning rally against the general market weakening. This will also let off steam in an overheated market, making it attractive to new buyers.
That said, we believe in oil’s long-term bullish outlook given its strong support from the market and authorities on touching crucial technical levels - the 200- and 50-week moving averages.
This promises the world a prolonged fight against inflation, which must be fought through slowing demand, not by falling prices of the key commodity. We got the same signal in 2019, but COVID-19 provided a historic chance for bulls to buy even lower.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
Large speculative buyers may want to lock in profits at the end of the month and quarter after a stunning rally against the general market weakening. This will also let off steam in an overheated market, making it attractive to new buyers.
That said, we believe in oil’s long-term bullish outlook given its strong support from the market and authorities on touching crucial technical levels - the 200- and 50-week moving averages.
This promises the world a prolonged fight against inflation, which must be fought through slowing demand, not by falling prices of the key commodity. We got the same signal in 2019, but COVID-19 provided a historic chance for bulls to buy even lower.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com