First is inflation. The annual rate of price increases has been below 2% for the past three months, and this is not a high-base effect. Monthly price increases have averaged 0.09% over the past six months and half that over the past three months, bringing annual inflation to 1.1% and 0.55%, respectively.
Second is the Swiss franc exchange rate. In July, the USDCHF fell to 0.8550. It was briefly lower in 2015 and from May to September 2011. By comparison, the yen - another example of a safe haven - is testing multi-month lows. Neither the euro nor the pound can boast high levels relative to historical prospects.
Second is the Swiss franc exchange rate. In July, the USDCHF fell to 0.8550. It was briefly lower in 2015 and from May to September 2011. By comparison, the yen - another example of a safe haven - is testing multi-month lows. Neither the euro nor the pound can boast high levels relative to historical prospects.
The Swiss franc lost 1.5% against the dollar in response to the Fed's hawkish pause and a "surprise" from the SNB. The USDCHF pair has risen above 0.9050, its highest level in over three months, after moving slowly but smoothly upwards for the past two months.
If the pair holds these levels for the rest of the day, or even better, for the rest of the week, we will have signalled a change in the long-term trend, as the USDCHF has crossed the 200-day moving average.
However, we should expect a severe fight at current levels as the pair looks overbought. The pair's upward momentum on Thursday could be the last mile before broad profit-taking begins on the previous gains.
The Franc has likely run out of fuel for further declines. A corrective pullback to 0.9850-0.9000 may be needed to make selling the Franc attractive again in the medium term. On the bearish side, risk aversion in global markets could return in the coming days if it leads to deleveraging.
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If the pair holds these levels for the rest of the day, or even better, for the rest of the week, we will have signalled a change in the long-term trend, as the USDCHF has crossed the 200-day moving average.
However, we should expect a severe fight at current levels as the pair looks overbought. The pair's upward momentum on Thursday could be the last mile before broad profit-taking begins on the previous gains.
The Franc has likely run out of fuel for further declines. A corrective pullback to 0.9850-0.9000 may be needed to make selling the Franc attractive again in the medium term. On the bearish side, risk aversion in global markets could return in the coming days if it leads to deleveraging.
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#WaveAnalysis
#CHFJPY broke support level 164.00
Likely to fall to support level 162.00
CHFJPY continues to fall inside the minor impulse wave i, which previously broke the support level 164.00 (low of the previous wave A) intersecting with the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from July.
The breakout of the support level 164.00 should accelerate the active impulse wave i, which belongs to the C-wave of the intermediate ABC wave (4) from the end of August.
CHFJPY can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 162.00 (low of the previous correction ii from August).
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#CHFJPY broke support level 164.00
Likely to fall to support level 162.00
CHFJPY continues to fall inside the minor impulse wave i, which previously broke the support level 164.00 (low of the previous wave A) intersecting with the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from July.
The breakout of the support level 164.00 should accelerate the active impulse wave i, which belongs to the C-wave of the intermediate ABC wave (4) from the end of August.
CHFJPY can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 162.00 (low of the previous correction ii from August).
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#WaveAnalysis
#USDCHF broke resistance level 0.9000
Likely to rise to resistance level 0.9150
USDCHF recently broke above the round resistance level 0.9000 (which has been reversing the price from June) intersecting with the 50% Fibonacci correction of the downtrend from March.
The breakout of the resistance level 0.9000 should accelerate the active impulse wave c, which belongs to the ABC correction 2 from July.
USDCHF can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 0.9150 (target for the completion of the active impulse wave c).
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#USDCHF broke resistance level 0.9000
Likely to rise to resistance level 0.9150
USDCHF recently broke above the round resistance level 0.9000 (which has been reversing the price from June) intersecting with the 50% Fibonacci correction of the downtrend from March.
The breakout of the resistance level 0.9000 should accelerate the active impulse wave c, which belongs to the ABC correction 2 from July.
USDCHF can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 0.9150 (target for the completion of the active impulse wave c).
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The crypto market cap has fallen to $1.056 trillion, losing around 0.9% in 24 hours. The main pressure on the market came from outside, with the US market losing a further 1.8% on the Nasdaq, returning to August lows. It should be noted that against such an unfavourable external backdrop, the consolidation of cryptocurrencies near the levels seen at the beginning of the week looks like a vote of confidence from crypto enthusiasts.
#Bitcoin has returned to $26.6, erasing the mini pump at the beginning of the week. The ability to hold on to last week's support looks like a positive signal. On the other hand, we saw earlier this week that bears control the market. But they aren't in a hurry yet.
#Ethereum looks weak. After five weeks of trying to stay above its 50- and 200-week moving averages, the digital silver is in danger of closing below these lines and $1600 this week. The following lines of defence look to be the $1500 and $1200, where buyers came to the coin's rescue in March and December 2022.
#Bitcoin has returned to $26.6, erasing the mini pump at the beginning of the week. The ability to hold on to last week's support looks like a positive signal. On the other hand, we saw earlier this week that bears control the market. But they aren't in a hurry yet.
#Ethereum looks weak. After five weeks of trying to stay above its 50- and 200-week moving averages, the digital silver is in danger of closing below these lines and $1600 this week. The following lines of defence look to be the $1500 and $1200, where buyers came to the coin's rescue in March and December 2022.
Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500 are on the verge of a deeper correction
The US stock market is attempting to bounce back on Friday after the heavy sell-off on Wednesday and Thursday. The Nasdaq-100 index was close to key levels where it reversed gains made in June and August. The S&P 500 has fallen below similar support, which is worrying.
Nasdaq-100 futures fell below 14700 on Friday morning. Previously, on 26 June and 18 August, this area supported a reversal to the upside. But in that time, the situation has deteriorated. In June, there was a brief pause on the way up. It was a desperate attempt in August to hold onto the uptrend, followed by a long battle for the 50-day moving average.
The bearish team showed its strength in the second half of September when it first pushed the index below this medium-term trend indicator in a strong move and then pushed the Nasdaq-100 4% away from this line after the Fed meeting. In addition, the 50-day MA reversed to the downside for the first time since early January.
The US stock market is attempting to bounce back on Friday after the heavy sell-off on Wednesday and Thursday. The Nasdaq-100 index was close to key levels where it reversed gains made in June and August. The S&P 500 has fallen below similar support, which is worrying.
Nasdaq-100 futures fell below 14700 on Friday morning. Previously, on 26 June and 18 August, this area supported a reversal to the upside. But in that time, the situation has deteriorated. In June, there was a brief pause on the way up. It was a desperate attempt in August to hold onto the uptrend, followed by a long battle for the 50-day moving average.
The bearish team showed its strength in the second half of September when it first pushed the index below this medium-term trend indicator in a strong move and then pushed the Nasdaq-100 4% away from this line after the Fed meeting. In addition, the 50-day MA reversed to the downside for the first time since early January.
As is often the case on Friday, we will see some short-term profit-taking that may raise false hopes. A consolidation below 14700 early next week will set the stage for a deeper correction. Potential targets are 13930, where 61.8% of the rally since the beginning of the year has taken place. Or the 200-day average, now near 13600 but pointing higher, will reach 13900 around mid-October.
The alternative scenario suggests that stocks will continue to find support not only on Friday but into the new week, forming a triple bottom and potentially completing a corrective pullback to 76.4% of the year-to-date rally.
The alternative scenario suggests that stocks will continue to find support not only on Friday but into the new week, forming a triple bottom and potentially completing a corrective pullback to 76.4% of the year-to-date rally.
The S&P 500 is in a more difficult position, as Thursday's trading saw the index close below the pivot points from August and the second half of June and below the 76.4% line of all gains since last October. A classic 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the previous 12 months' rally would suggest a decline to the 4200 area, the 200-day moving average and a former major resistance area from May 2022 to June 2023.
Even if these correction targets for the Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500 are fully met, we will still be in a bull market. At the same time, there is a chance that the monetary authorities will be more cautious in their comments on the economy's strength, as they often judge it by the volatility of the markets.
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Even if these correction targets for the Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500 are fully met, we will still be in a bull market. At the same time, there is a chance that the monetary authorities will be more cautious in their comments on the economy's strength, as they often judge it by the volatility of the markets.
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#WaveAnalysis
#GBPNZD broke support level 2.0640
Likely to fall to support level 2.0400
GBPNZD recently broke the support level 2.0640 (which reversed the pair multiple times in July) intersecting with the support trendline of the weekly up channel from February.
The breakout of the up channel from February follows the earlier breakout of the sharp up channel from May, accelerating the active impulse wave c.
GBPNZD can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 2.0400 (target for the completion of the active ABC correction 2).
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#GBPNZD broke support level 2.0640
Likely to fall to support level 2.0400
GBPNZD recently broke the support level 2.0640 (which reversed the pair multiple times in July) intersecting with the support trendline of the weekly up channel from February.
The breakout of the up channel from February follows the earlier breakout of the sharp up channel from May, accelerating the active impulse wave c.
GBPNZD can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 2.0400 (target for the completion of the active ABC correction 2).
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#WaveAnalysis
#GBPUSD broke support level 1.2325
Likely to fall to support level 1.2150
GBPUSD recently broke the strong support level 1.2325 (which has been reversing the price from April) intersecting with the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the uptrend from March.
The breakout of the support level 1.2325 accelerated the active impulse wave (5), which belongs to the higher impulse wave 3 from July.
GBPUSD can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 1.2150 (target for the completion of the active impulse wave (5)).
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#GBPUSD broke support level 1.2325
Likely to fall to support level 1.2150
GBPUSD recently broke the strong support level 1.2325 (which has been reversing the price from April) intersecting with the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the uptrend from March.
The breakout of the support level 1.2325 accelerated the active impulse wave (5), which belongs to the higher impulse wave 3 from July.
GBPUSD can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 1.2150 (target for the completion of the active impulse wave (5)).
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Crypto market cap fell to $1.04 trillion from $1.06 at the start of last week. The Crypto's Fear and Greed Index briefly dipped into Fear territory at the end of the week but returned to Neutral (47) on Monday.
Bitcoin has been unable to break out of its sideways for a prolonged period. Trading at $26.1K at the start of Monday's session, it's down just 1.5% over the past 24 hours, 2% over the past seven days, and 0.5% from its level 30 days ago. The 50-day moving average remains active resistance. If the bearish momentum develops, we will closely monitor the dynamics around $25.8K, the previous consolidation area. A failure here could trigger a rapid decline to $25.8K. If the coin doesn't get bought back here as well a direct path to $20K will open.
Ethereum is still unsuccessfully trying to find support and is trading below $1580. And this downtrend is revealing the general sentiment of market participants, where the risk appetite is diminishing. The move towards $1400 may have already begun.
Bitcoin has been unable to break out of its sideways for a prolonged period. Trading at $26.1K at the start of Monday's session, it's down just 1.5% over the past 24 hours, 2% over the past seven days, and 0.5% from its level 30 days ago. The 50-day moving average remains active resistance. If the bearish momentum develops, we will closely monitor the dynamics around $25.8K, the previous consolidation area. A failure here could trigger a rapid decline to $25.8K. If the coin doesn't get bought back here as well a direct path to $20K will open.
Ethereum is still unsuccessfully trying to find support and is trading below $1580. And this downtrend is revealing the general sentiment of market participants, where the risk appetite is diminishing. The move towards $1400 may have already begun.
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Has the German business climate bottomed out?
Germany's Ifo business climate index held steady in September at the previous month's level despite expectations of further deterioration.
The business climate indicator fell from 85.8 to 85.7, better than the expected 85.1 but still the lowest since mid-2020. Excluding this spike, the only time in modern history that sentiment was worse was in the nine months between November 2008 and July 2009.
The Current Situation Index is trying to find a floor, falling from 89.0 to 88.7. Expectations have slightly improved, with the relevant component rising from 82.7 to 82.9. It may be too early to talk about a turnaround, but previous turning points in this component have coincided with the EURUSD's turnaround in the following months. From this perspective, it is a reliable leading indicator for the markets.
Germany's Ifo business climate index held steady in September at the previous month's level despite expectations of further deterioration.
The business climate indicator fell from 85.8 to 85.7, better than the expected 85.1 but still the lowest since mid-2020. Excluding this spike, the only time in modern history that sentiment was worse was in the nine months between November 2008 and July 2009.
The Current Situation Index is trying to find a floor, falling from 89.0 to 88.7. Expectations have slightly improved, with the relevant component rising from 82.7 to 82.9. It may be too early to talk about a turnaround, but previous turning points in this component have coincided with the EURUSD's turnaround in the following months. From this perspective, it is a reliable leading indicator for the markets.
On previous occasions, however, the expectations index reversed sharply because of monetary easing and fiscal stimulus. This is not the case now, and the improvement in sentiment is in response to a period of low gas prices and slowing inflation. However, neither the issue of reliable gas supplies and energy prices in general nor the slowdown in inflation has been resolved.
Moreover, the ECB raised interest rates less than two weeks ago, in contrast to sharp cuts on previous occasions when business sentiment in Germany and the eurozone was similarly low. A further deterioration in sentiment cannot be ruled out without support from the government and ECB measures. In these circumstances, the scenario of a weaker single currency directly correlated with risk appetite remains a priority.
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Moreover, the ECB raised interest rates less than two weeks ago, in contrast to sharp cuts on previous occasions when business sentiment in Germany and the eurozone was similarly low. A further deterioration in sentiment cannot be ruled out without support from the government and ECB measures. In these circumstances, the scenario of a weaker single currency directly correlated with risk appetite remains a priority.
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📺Welcome back to another episode of Pro News!
In this week's recap, we delve into the Fed's surprising stance on interest rates and its impact on the US dollar.
Gold's battle to maintain its value amid shifting economic tides is examined, along with the turbulent ride of the Nasdaq 100 in response to rising interest rates.
We explore the resurgence of crude oil prices and its potential impact on inflation.
Plus, we dissect the cryptocurrency market's recent performance, with Bitcoin facing critical levels.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dEenU8sr4Xc
In this week's recap, we delve into the Fed's surprising stance on interest rates and its impact on the US dollar.
Gold's battle to maintain its value amid shifting economic tides is examined, along with the turbulent ride of the Nasdaq 100 in response to rising interest rates.
We explore the resurgence of crude oil prices and its potential impact on inflation.
Plus, we dissect the cryptocurrency market's recent performance, with Bitcoin facing critical levels.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dEenU8sr4Xc
YouTube
Weekly Pro Analysis | Fed's Hawkish Turn, Gold's Battle, Market Tumult, and Oil's Rally
Welcome back to another episode of Pro News! In this week's recap, we delve into the Fed's surprising stance on interest rates and its impact on the US dollar. Gold's battle to maintain its value amid shifting economic tides is examined, along with the turbulent…
German DAX40 heading for deeper correction
There is growing evidence that equity markets are amid a deep correction from the run-up that began almost 12 months ago. The reaction of Europe's significant indices in recent days has been telling.
The German DAX40 fell below its 200-day moving average at the end of last week and is trading below it on Monday, coinciding with a critical support line at 15500.
German DAX40 heading for deeper correction
There is growing evidence that equity markets are amid a deep correction from the run-up that began almost 12 months ago. The reaction of Europe's significant indices in recent days has been telling.
The German DAX40 fell below its 200-day moving average at the end of last week and is trading below it on Monday, coinciding with a critical support line at 15500.
There is growing evidence that equity markets are amid a deep correction from the run-up that began almost 12 months ago. The reaction of Europe's significant indices in recent days has been telling.
The German DAX40 fell below its 200-day moving average at the end of last week and is trading below it on Monday, coinciding with a critical support line at 15500.
German DAX40 heading for deeper correction
There is growing evidence that equity markets are amid a deep correction from the run-up that began almost 12 months ago. The reaction of Europe's significant indices in recent days has been telling.
The German DAX40 fell below its 200-day moving average at the end of last week and is trading below it on Monday, coinciding with a critical support line at 15500.
As is often the case, the downward reversal followed the final capitulation of the bears in the last days of July, when the DAX40 hit a multi-year high above 16500.
A few days later, the 50-day moving average became a resistance level, and the sell-off intensified when it was breached. The final reversal from upside to downside occurred on 15 September, and the new momentum took the index to new local lows.
The classic Fibonacci pattern suggests a corrective pullback will take the index to 61.8% of the original advance from 3 October last year. This line is near 14700.
Another potentially attractive target for the bears could be the 14600 area, a pivot level from March last year. However, the DAX40 could go as high as 15000 rather quickly without encountering any significant support.
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A few days later, the 50-day moving average became a resistance level, and the sell-off intensified when it was breached. The final reversal from upside to downside occurred on 15 September, and the new momentum took the index to new local lows.
The classic Fibonacci pattern suggests a corrective pullback will take the index to 61.8% of the original advance from 3 October last year. This line is near 14700.
Another potentially attractive target for the bears could be the 14600 area, a pivot level from March last year. However, the DAX40 could go as high as 15000 rather quickly without encountering any significant support.
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#WaveAnalysis
#EURCAD broke support level 1.4290
Likely to fall to support level 1.4200
EURCAD today broke below the key support level 1.4290 (which has been reversing the price from the start of January as can be seen below).
The breakout of the support level 1.4290 accelerated the C-wave of the active ABC correction (2) from the middle of July.
Given the bearish euro sentiment seen across the FX markets today, EURCAD can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 1.4200 (target for the completion of the active C-wave).
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#EURCAD broke support level 1.4290
Likely to fall to support level 1.4200
EURCAD today broke below the key support level 1.4290 (which has been reversing the price from the start of January as can be seen below).
The breakout of the support level 1.4290 accelerated the C-wave of the active ABC correction (2) from the middle of July.
Given the bearish euro sentiment seen across the FX markets today, EURCAD can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 1.4200 (target for the completion of the active C-wave).
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#WaveAnalysis
#Gold reversed from key resistance level 1950.00
Likely to fall to support level 1900.00
Gold recently reversed down from the key resistance level 1950.00 (top of wave I from the start of this month) intersecting with the upper daily Bollinger Band.
The resistance level 1950.00 was further strengthened by the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the previous downward impulse (C) from July.
Gold can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 1900.00 (low of the previous minor correction ii).
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#Gold reversed from key resistance level 1950.00
Likely to fall to support level 1900.00
Gold recently reversed down from the key resistance level 1950.00 (top of wave I from the start of this month) intersecting with the upper daily Bollinger Band.
The resistance level 1950.00 was further strengthened by the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the previous downward impulse (C) from July.
Gold can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 1900.00 (low of the previous minor correction ii).
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The crypto market cap approached 1.05 trillion (+0.9% in 24h). On Monday evening, the crypto market recouped its losses following the US stock indices, but since Tuesday morning, there has been renewed selling on weaker Chinese stocks.
#Bitcoin closed lower on Monday, remaining in the clutches of the bears after touching the 50-day MA a week ago. With markets still under pressure, the focus remains on the first cryptocurrency's momentum in the $25.0K-$25.6K area. Without confident buying in this area, be prepared for a failure towards $20K on weak hand capitulation.
#XRP is giving up ground after a failed attempt to get back above the 200-day MA. Although it is pointing up, it acts as solid resistance in September. The pressure in the equity markets is not helping.
It forms a death cross after Ethereum and BTC. From the current level of $0.4980, $0.46 is a critical support level, where several supports and the 50-week MA are concentrated.
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#Bitcoin closed lower on Monday, remaining in the clutches of the bears after touching the 50-day MA a week ago. With markets still under pressure, the focus remains on the first cryptocurrency's momentum in the $25.0K-$25.6K area. Without confident buying in this area, be prepared for a failure towards $20K on weak hand capitulation.
#XRP is giving up ground after a failed attempt to get back above the 200-day MA. Although it is pointing up, it acts as solid resistance in September. The pressure in the equity markets is not helping.
It forms a death cross after Ethereum and BTC. From the current level of $0.4980, $0.46 is a critical support level, where several supports and the 50-week MA are concentrated.
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