A bull trap in gold?
Gold added almost 1% on Friday, having managed to defend against a fall below $1900 the day before. The price tests the long-term and medium-term trends for the second month, leaving the Fed to make a decisive argument in favour of the bulls or the bears. Friday's rise so far looks like a trap for the bears.
Gold closed last week minimally above its 200-day moving average. In the past two months, this is the second attempt by the bulls to prove that the dip below this line, which acts as a long-term trend indicator, was false, and the long-term uptrend is still in place.
However, this looks more like a temporary revenge, raising the chances of an even more disorganised retreat shortly.
Gold's performance in August also looks telling. Gold's dip towards $1890 attracted buyers, but they quickly rushed to take profits on the approach to $1950 and failed to stay above the 50-day moving average for long.
Gold added almost 1% on Friday, having managed to defend against a fall below $1900 the day before. The price tests the long-term and medium-term trends for the second month, leaving the Fed to make a decisive argument in favour of the bulls or the bears. Friday's rise so far looks like a trap for the bears.
Gold closed last week minimally above its 200-day moving average. In the past two months, this is the second attempt by the bulls to prove that the dip below this line, which acts as a long-term trend indicator, was false, and the long-term uptrend is still in place.
However, this looks more like a temporary revenge, raising the chances of an even more disorganised retreat shortly.
Gold's performance in August also looks telling. Gold's dip towards $1890 attracted buyers, but they quickly rushed to take profits on the approach to $1950 and failed to stay above the 50-day moving average for long.
Since May, gold has been in a downtrend with increasingly lower local highs (in May, July, and early September) and declining lows (in June and August).
Gold's impulsive rebound late last week was counter-intuitive as it coincided with a broad sell-off in equities. However, there is often a direct correlation between these asset classes.
While a temporary balance of power can be seen in the market, we still see more potential for a bearish scenario. However, it has yet to prove its strength.
Thus, confidence in further declines will increase if gold returns under the 200-day moving average at $1922. In this case, we should expect a short-term decline under the previous lows at $1890 with a potential downside at $1850, the lower boundary of the descending channel formed.
Alternatively, if gold consolidates above $1930 and gains strength further above the 50-day moving average, it will make us consider a trend change to an uptrend.
In all cases, the market may give false signals until Wednesday evening, when we will see the market reaction to the Fed's rate comments. The upcoming meeting has the potential to reverse the current short-term picture.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
Gold's impulsive rebound late last week was counter-intuitive as it coincided with a broad sell-off in equities. However, there is often a direct correlation between these asset classes.
While a temporary balance of power can be seen in the market, we still see more potential for a bearish scenario. However, it has yet to prove its strength.
Thus, confidence in further declines will increase if gold returns under the 200-day moving average at $1922. In this case, we should expect a short-term decline under the previous lows at $1890 with a potential downside at $1850, the lower boundary of the descending channel formed.
Alternatively, if gold consolidates above $1930 and gains strength further above the 50-day moving average, it will make us consider a trend change to an uptrend.
In all cases, the market may give false signals until Wednesday evening, when we will see the market reaction to the Fed's rate comments. The upcoming meeting has the potential to reverse the current short-term picture.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
👎3👍2
#WaveAnalysis
#Silver reversed from support level 22.50
Likely to rise to resistance level 23.50
Silver recently reversed up from the strong multi-month support level 22.50 (which has been reversing the price from June) intersecting with the lower daily Bollinger Band and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from March.
The upward reversal from the support level 22.50 stopped the previous short-term ABC corrective wave 2.
Given the strength of the support level 22.50, Silver can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 23.50.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
#Silver reversed from support level 22.50
Likely to rise to resistance level 23.50
Silver recently reversed up from the strong multi-month support level 22.50 (which has been reversing the price from June) intersecting with the lower daily Bollinger Band and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from March.
The upward reversal from the support level 22.50 stopped the previous short-term ABC corrective wave 2.
Given the strength of the support level 22.50, Silver can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 23.50.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
❤2
#WaveAnalysis
#EURAUD reversed from support level 1.6535
Likely to rise to resistance level 1.6800
EURAUD currency pair recently reversed up from the support level 1.6535 (former resistance from May, June and July) intersecting with the lower daily Bollinger Band and the support trendline of the daily down channel from August.
The upward reversal from the support level 1.6535 stopped the previous short-term impulse wave 3.
Given the clear daily uptrend, EURAUD currency pair can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 1.6800.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
#EURAUD reversed from support level 1.6535
Likely to rise to resistance level 1.6800
EURAUD currency pair recently reversed up from the support level 1.6535 (former resistance from May, June and July) intersecting with the lower daily Bollinger Band and the support trendline of the daily down channel from August.
The upward reversal from the support level 1.6535 stopped the previous short-term impulse wave 3.
Given the clear daily uptrend, EURAUD currency pair can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 1.6800.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
Crypto market capitalisation exceeds $1.07 trillion (+0.6% in 24h), maintaining its upward trend over the last seven days.
#Bitcoin hit $27.4K on Monday for the first time since late August but quickly pulled back to $26.8K. This was the second failed attempt to break above the 50-day moving average since early August and the second downward reversal on the approach to the 200-day MA.
This is an important signal that the bears are still in control of the situation in the largest cryptocurrency, even though they gave some space to "play" as we expected yesterday.
#Ethereum, unlike the first crypto, is moving strictly to the right, almost pegged to $1640. The long consolidation removes oversold conditions and prepares liquidity for a new round of declines.
However, much for the two largest cryptos this week depends on big central banks comments, from the Fed to the Bank of Japan. They can either bring back risk appetite or completely undermine it.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
#Bitcoin hit $27.4K on Monday for the first time since late August but quickly pulled back to $26.8K. This was the second failed attempt to break above the 50-day moving average since early August and the second downward reversal on the approach to the 200-day MA.
This is an important signal that the bears are still in control of the situation in the largest cryptocurrency, even though they gave some space to "play" as we expected yesterday.
#Ethereum, unlike the first crypto, is moving strictly to the right, almost pegged to $1640. The long consolidation removes oversold conditions and prepares liquidity for a new round of declines.
However, much for the two largest cryptos this week depends on big central banks comments, from the Fed to the Bank of Japan. They can either bring back risk appetite or completely undermine it.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
📢 Two new Exciting IPO Alerts! 🚀
Get ready for some sizzling opportunities in the stock market! Instacart and Klaviyo, two red-hot companies, are about to make their big IPO debuts. 🔥
🛒 Instacart: The grocery delivery giant is priced at the top end of expectations, signaling high demand.
🌐 Klaviyo: The marketing software sensation is raising expectations for its upcoming IPO. Klaviyo's innovative solutions are set to reshape the marketing tech landscape.
🔜You will soon be able to Buy or Sell the new stocks on our MT5 accounts 📈📉
marketing communication, not recommendation or advice
Get ready for some sizzling opportunities in the stock market! Instacart and Klaviyo, two red-hot companies, are about to make their big IPO debuts. 🔥
🛒 Instacart: The grocery delivery giant is priced at the top end of expectations, signaling high demand.
🌐 Klaviyo: The marketing software sensation is raising expectations for its upcoming IPO. Klaviyo's innovative solutions are set to reshape the marketing tech landscape.
🔜You will soon be able to Buy or Sell the new stocks on our MT5 accounts 📈📉
marketing communication, not recommendation or advice
👏2❤1
#USDCAD is down 1.9% at 1.3430 since 8 September, when the pair reversed sharply lower as it approached 1.3700. Since 2003, the pair has only traded above 1.3700 for relatively short periods at the height of the crisis. The Canadian dollar became attractive for long-term buying as soon as the dust settled after the market crash during the oil collapse in 2015 and lockdowns in 2020.
Over 2022 and 2023, CAD has held back from testing multi-year lows against the USD despite the latter's broad rally. On more than one occasion this year, we have seen the USDCAD sell-off intensify as it entered the 1.3600 area. September is no exception, as we see a similar decline in intensity to that seen in June.
The fundamental news for the Canadian dollar is the rise in oil prices. US producers are still unable to close their operating deficits that lifts demand for Canadian crude.
Over 2022 and 2023, CAD has held back from testing multi-year lows against the USD despite the latter's broad rally. On more than one occasion this year, we have seen the USDCAD sell-off intensify as it entered the 1.3600 area. September is no exception, as we see a similar decline in intensity to that seen in June.
The fundamental news for the Canadian dollar is the rise in oil prices. US producers are still unable to close their operating deficits that lifts demand for Canadian crude.
The 36% rise in crude oil prices since the end of June has convinced investors that Canadian exports will benefit from the recent price spike. Moreover, it could also be why the Bank of Canada shifted its policy towards more tightening after two months of CPI acceleration.
The latest data, which showed an acceleration in the annual pace to 4.0% from 2.8% in June and 3.3% in July, raised expectations for another rate hike by the Bank of Canada later this year.
USDCAD's failure on Tuesday also carries an important technical signal. The pair broke above both its 50- and 200-day moving averages during the day. The last time this happened was in early June; a sell-off for almost a month followed the signal.
As well as indicating the strength of the Canadian economy, the active decline in the USDCAD may also be a sign of growing risk appetite among North American investors. This could be an important leading signal for global markets.
The latest data, which showed an acceleration in the annual pace to 4.0% from 2.8% in June and 3.3% in July, raised expectations for another rate hike by the Bank of Canada later this year.
USDCAD's failure on Tuesday also carries an important technical signal. The pair broke above both its 50- and 200-day moving averages during the day. The last time this happened was in early June; a sell-off for almost a month followed the signal.
As well as indicating the strength of the Canadian economy, the active decline in the USDCAD may also be a sign of growing risk appetite among North American investors. This could be an important leading signal for global markets.
❤1
#WaveAnalysis
#GBPCHF reversed from multi-month support level 1.1080
Likely to rise to resistance level 1.1170
GBPCHF currency pair recently reversed up from the major, multi-month support level 1.1080 (which has been reversing the price from February) intersecting with the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from the support level 1.1080 stopped the previous short-term impulse wave iii.
Given the strength of the support level 1.1080, GBPCHF can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 1.1170 (top of the previous correction ii).
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
#GBPCHF reversed from multi-month support level 1.1080
Likely to rise to resistance level 1.1170
GBPCHF currency pair recently reversed up from the major, multi-month support level 1.1080 (which has been reversing the price from February) intersecting with the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from the support level 1.1080 stopped the previous short-term impulse wave iii.
Given the strength of the support level 1.1080, GBPCHF can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 1.1170 (top of the previous correction ii).
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
👍1
#WaveAnalysis #UK100
FTSE 100 reversed from pivotal resistance level 7710,00
– Likely to fall to support level 7585,00
FTSE 100 index previously reversed down from the pivotal resistance level 7710,00 (former yearly high from July, former strong support from May) intersecting with the upper daily Bollinger Band.
The resistance level 7710,00 was strengthened by the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the previous downward impulse from February.
Given the strength of the resistance level 7710,00 and the overbought daily Stochastic, FTSE 100 index can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 7585,00,
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
FTSE 100 reversed from pivotal resistance level 7710,00
– Likely to fall to support level 7585,00
FTSE 100 index previously reversed down from the pivotal resistance level 7710,00 (former yearly high from July, former strong support from May) intersecting with the upper daily Bollinger Band.
The resistance level 7710,00 was strengthened by the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the previous downward impulse from February.
Given the strength of the resistance level 7710,00 and the overbought daily Stochastic, FTSE 100 index can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 7585,00,
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
The crypto market has been trading around 1.08 trillion over the last day.
The trading range is narrowing as the Fed decision approaches. However, it is worth highlighting the pressure on the markets early on Wednesday and the intensification of cryptocurrency selling as the cap rises towards 1.09 trillion.
Bitcoin encountered resistance at $27.4K. Attempts to break above the 50-day moving average for the third day met strong resistance. All financial markets have taken a wait-and-see approach ahead of monetary policy decisions in the US, Switzerland, the UK, and Japan.
The situation for Bitcoin is bearish if one looks solely at the technical picture on the chart. The corrective bounce in BTC is formally over; the price has fallen below the moving averages, and the short-term oversold condition is complete.
In another recalculation, bitcoin's mining difficulty rose 5.48% to 57.12 T. According to Glassnode, the smoothed 7-day moving average hit a high of 423.4 EH/s.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
The trading range is narrowing as the Fed decision approaches. However, it is worth highlighting the pressure on the markets early on Wednesday and the intensification of cryptocurrency selling as the cap rises towards 1.09 trillion.
Bitcoin encountered resistance at $27.4K. Attempts to break above the 50-day moving average for the third day met strong resistance. All financial markets have taken a wait-and-see approach ahead of monetary policy decisions in the US, Switzerland, the UK, and Japan.
The situation for Bitcoin is bearish if one looks solely at the technical picture on the chart. The corrective bounce in BTC is formally over; the price has fallen below the moving averages, and the short-term oversold condition is complete.
In another recalculation, bitcoin's mining difficulty rose 5.48% to 57.12 T. According to Glassnode, the smoothed 7-day moving average hit a high of 423.4 EH/s.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
❤1👍1
UK consumer inflation slowed from 6.8% to 6.7% y/y, contrary to the expected acceleration to 7.0%. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, saw an even more significant slowdown of 6.2% from 6.9% y/y, well below the average forecast of 6.8%.
The weaker-than-expected data sparked a brief sell-off in GBPUSD, with the exchange rate dropping nearly 0.5% within minutes to 1.2330, a level last seen in May.
The UK's annual price growth rate is still higher than other developed economies, outpacing several major emerging ones. The latest data has fuelled speculation that the Bank of England will pause on rate hikes or even end the hiking cycle that began almost two years ago.
The weaker-than-expected data sparked a brief sell-off in GBPUSD, with the exchange rate dropping nearly 0.5% within minutes to 1.2330, a level last seen in May.
The UK's annual price growth rate is still higher than other developed economies, outpacing several major emerging ones. The latest data has fuelled speculation that the Bank of England will pause on rate hikes or even end the hiking cycle that began almost two years ago.
The dovish rhetoric looks premature in our view. These 9.1% y/y retail price increases are unacceptable for a developed country, and core inflation has been "too high for too long", entrenching inflation expectations. A strong labour market increases the risk of secondary inflationary effects, exacerbated by the recent rise in commodity and energy prices.
Producer input prices rose by 0.4% in August. Producer output prices have risen by 0.2% over the past two months, signalling the end of the deflationary impact on final inflation.
For over two months now, the Pound has been gently retreating against the Dollar because of contrasting economic data from these countries, with the UK being the weaker side. However, it would be a mistake to assume that the Bank of England will quickly turn its monetary policy towards easing, as this could increase pressure on Sterling and reinforce pro-inflationary factors.
Producer input prices rose by 0.4% in August. Producer output prices have risen by 0.2% over the past two months, signalling the end of the deflationary impact on final inflation.
For over two months now, the Pound has been gently retreating against the Dollar because of contrasting economic data from these countries, with the UK being the weaker side. However, it would be a mistake to assume that the Bank of England will quickly turn its monetary policy towards easing, as this could increase pressure on Sterling and reinforce pro-inflationary factors.
#WaveAnalysis
#USDJPY broke the resistance level 147,40
Likely to rise to resistance level 147.70
USDJPY currency pair recently broke the resistance level 147,40 (which has been reversing the price from the start of September).
The breakout of the resistance level 147,40 accelerated the active impulse wave 5 of the intermediate impulse wave (3) from the middle of July.
Given the clear daily uptrend, USDJPY currency pair can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 147.70.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
#USDJPY broke the resistance level 147,40
Likely to rise to resistance level 147.70
USDJPY currency pair recently broke the resistance level 147,40 (which has been reversing the price from the start of September).
The breakout of the resistance level 147,40 accelerated the active impulse wave 5 of the intermediate impulse wave (3) from the middle of July.
Given the clear daily uptrend, USDJPY currency pair can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 147.70.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
#WaveAnalysis
#Gold rising inside minor impulse wave 1
Likely to reach resistance at 1985.00
Gold continues to rise inside the minor impulse wave 1, which reversed earlier from the upper trendline of the recently broken down channel from May.
The active impulse wave 1 belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (1) from the end of August.
Given the strong daily uptrend, Gold can be expected to break the next resistance at 1950.00 and to rise further toward the next resistance level 1985.00.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
#Gold rising inside minor impulse wave 1
Likely to reach resistance at 1985.00
Gold continues to rise inside the minor impulse wave 1, which reversed earlier from the upper trendline of the recently broken down channel from May.
The active impulse wave 1 belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (1) from the end of August.
Given the strong daily uptrend, Gold can be expected to break the next resistance at 1950.00 and to rise further toward the next resistance level 1985.00.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
❤2
Even the Fed's decision and comments failed to inspire crypto investors. The market cap fell a modest 0.25% on the day, significantly less than the Nasdaq's losses (-1.5%) and more a reflection of the dollar's 0.3% appreciation over the period.
In #Bitcoin, the sell-off intensifies around the 50-day moving average, sticking to a downtrend. The curve is near $27.0K but has been pointing down since early August, coinciding with the start of the latest bearish momentum.
On the other hand, with a dip towards $26.8K, Bitcoin is once again being dominated by buying. This tug-of-war won't last long. Most likely, the market will decide its direction before Friday. We still believe that the chances of further declines are higher for now.
Long-term BTC holders are accumulating the coins they sold to short-term investors in the spring, which promises positive prospects for the future. This is the kind of behaviour hoarders exhibit at the beginning of bull markets, Bitfinex noted.
In #Bitcoin, the sell-off intensifies around the 50-day moving average, sticking to a downtrend. The curve is near $27.0K but has been pointing down since early August, coinciding with the start of the latest bearish momentum.
On the other hand, with a dip towards $26.8K, Bitcoin is once again being dominated by buying. This tug-of-war won't last long. Most likely, the market will decide its direction before Friday. We still believe that the chances of further declines are higher for now.
Long-term BTC holders are accumulating the coins they sold to short-term investors in the spring, which promises positive prospects for the future. This is the kind of behaviour hoarders exhibit at the beginning of bull markets, Bitfinex noted.
Franc weakens as SNB's logical move surprises markets
The Swiss National Bank left its key interest rate unchanged at 1.75%. On average, markets had been predicting a 25-basis point hike, contrary to our expectations.
Most likely, market participants' forecasts were influenced by the ECB rate hike a week earlier. In addition, policy tightening expected in Sweden and Norway indeed took place. But there are a couple of things that set Switzerland apart from other European countries.
The Swiss National Bank left its key interest rate unchanged at 1.75%. On average, markets had been predicting a 25-basis point hike, contrary to our expectations.
Most likely, market participants' forecasts were influenced by the ECB rate hike a week earlier. In addition, policy tightening expected in Sweden and Norway indeed took place. But there are a couple of things that set Switzerland apart from other European countries.
👍1
First is inflation. The annual rate of price increases has been below 2% for the past three months, and this is not a high-base effect. Monthly price increases have averaged 0.09% over the past six months and half that over the past three months, bringing annual inflation to 1.1% and 0.55%, respectively.
Second is the Swiss franc exchange rate. In July, the USDCHF fell to 0.8550. It was briefly lower in 2015 and from May to September 2011. By comparison, the yen - another example of a safe haven - is testing multi-month lows. Neither the euro nor the pound can boast high levels relative to historical prospects.
Second is the Swiss franc exchange rate. In July, the USDCHF fell to 0.8550. It was briefly lower in 2015 and from May to September 2011. By comparison, the yen - another example of a safe haven - is testing multi-month lows. Neither the euro nor the pound can boast high levels relative to historical prospects.
The Swiss franc lost 1.5% against the dollar in response to the Fed's hawkish pause and a "surprise" from the SNB. The USDCHF pair has risen above 0.9050, its highest level in over three months, after moving slowly but smoothly upwards for the past two months.
If the pair holds these levels for the rest of the day, or even better, for the rest of the week, we will have signalled a change in the long-term trend, as the USDCHF has crossed the 200-day moving average.
However, we should expect a severe fight at current levels as the pair looks overbought. The pair's upward momentum on Thursday could be the last mile before broad profit-taking begins on the previous gains.
The Franc has likely run out of fuel for further declines. A corrective pullback to 0.9850-0.9000 may be needed to make selling the Franc attractive again in the medium term. On the bearish side, risk aversion in global markets could return in the coming days if it leads to deleveraging.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
If the pair holds these levels for the rest of the day, or even better, for the rest of the week, we will have signalled a change in the long-term trend, as the USDCHF has crossed the 200-day moving average.
However, we should expect a severe fight at current levels as the pair looks overbought. The pair's upward momentum on Thursday could be the last mile before broad profit-taking begins on the previous gains.
The Franc has likely run out of fuel for further declines. A corrective pullback to 0.9850-0.9000 may be needed to make selling the Franc attractive again in the medium term. On the bearish side, risk aversion in global markets could return in the coming days if it leads to deleveraging.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com