Last week, the daily average production rose to 12.9 million barrels, up from the previous three weeks' average of 12.8 million. In the first seven months of this year, production was consistently at 12.2 million barrels. Surprisingly, since the beginning of the year, US companies have decreased their drilling activities. The most recent data shows that the number of oil drillers was only 513, an 18% decrease from the peak of 627 in December last year.
What a change from the scenario we saw after 2009, with almost 10-fold growth within the following five years. From our point of view, drilling activity correlates with interest rates. Also, the Fed guarantees that this factor will continue to be in effect for a long time, which unintentionally leads to favourable situations for oil by reducing supply.
What a change from the scenario we saw after 2009, with almost 10-fold growth within the following five years. From our point of view, drilling activity correlates with interest rates. Also, the Fed guarantees that this factor will continue to be in effect for a long time, which unintentionally leads to favourable situations for oil by reducing supply.
The technical chart backs up the bullish view on oil. The dip in the latter part of August allowed for another push, which is where we are currently. Long-term moving averages (MA) favour the bullish outlook. The potential target is $95 per barrel WTI, with a 161.8% Fibonacci retracement from June's end to August's peak.
The weekly timeframes show solid backing in nearing the 200-week MA. Recently, the 50-week MA initiated a fresh buying wave after a correction occurred at the end of last month.
Daily timeframes encountered the "golden cross" pattern during this period, which previously took place in oil in September 2020 and spurred a threefold price increase in the next one and a half years. It's unlikely for this level of intensity to reoccur, but the power and significance of the signal shouldn't be underestimated.
Daily timeframes encountered the "golden cross" pattern during this period, which previously took place in oil in September 2020 and spurred a threefold price increase in the next one and a half years. It's unlikely for this level of intensity to reoccur, but the power and significance of the signal shouldn't be underestimated.
The Euro down on ECB comments despite surprise rate hike
Though analysts anticipated no changes, the ECB raised the rate by 25 points to 4.5%. However, the ECB's comments had a more significant effect on the markets. They stated that current rates are effective enough to normalise inflation eventually. This comment influenced the market as it was perceived as a hint that rates had reached their highest.
Madame Lagarde suggested future increases may occur during her press conference if inflation unexpectedly rises.
Though analysts anticipated no changes, the ECB raised the rate by 25 points to 4.5%. However, the ECB's comments had a more significant effect on the markets. They stated that current rates are effective enough to normalise inflation eventually. This comment influenced the market as it was perceived as a hint that rates had reached their highest.
Madame Lagarde suggested future increases may occur during her press conference if inflation unexpectedly rises.
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The market's response was clear: the euro fell drastically, nearing $1.0650, its lowest since March. The market then focused on the ECB's reduced economic growth predictions and remarks on how quickly monetary tightening spreads through the economy.
The set of US data highlights contrasts with a sluggish eurozone with better-than-expected retail sales, producer prices, and jobless claims – all pointing to a better state of the economy. In contrast, the speed of interest rate transmission is slower than average here.
This divergence could be reasoned by homeowners in Europe borrowing at adjustable rates, whereas in the US, they favour fixed-rate loans. Debt costs for businesses and households in Europe are increasing faster.
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The set of US data highlights contrasts with a sluggish eurozone with better-than-expected retail sales, producer prices, and jobless claims – all pointing to a better state of the economy. In contrast, the speed of interest rate transmission is slower than average here.
This divergence could be reasoned by homeowners in Europe borrowing at adjustable rates, whereas in the US, they favour fixed-rate loans. Debt costs for businesses and households in Europe are increasing faster.
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The cryptocurrency market has added 1% in the last 24 hours, bringing its capitalisation to $1.06 trillion. The increase is seen for the third day in a row and was likely triggered by the liquidation of weak-hand positions on Monday.
#Bitcoin is trading near $26.6K, successfully updating the highs of the current month. From the outside, optimism in the stock markets is helping the buying growth. From the inside, sellers are looking to lock in profits after two months of downtrend. Despite the "death cross", the short-term picture favours the bulls.
The latter is probably more explained by the mood of institutional investors, as #Ethereum (not such a favourite with them) is stubbornly stumbling on the sell-off on attempts to grow above $1640 - the consolidation area of the beginning of September.
#Bitcoin is trading near $26.6K, successfully updating the highs of the current month. From the outside, optimism in the stock markets is helping the buying growth. From the inside, sellers are looking to lock in profits after two months of downtrend. Despite the "death cross", the short-term picture favours the bulls.
The latter is probably more explained by the mood of institutional investors, as #Ethereum (not such a favourite with them) is stubbornly stumbling on the sell-off on attempts to grow above $1640 - the consolidation area of the beginning of September.
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#WaveAnalysis
#Platinum reversed from support level 890.00
Likely to rise to resistance level 940.00
Platinum recently reversed up from the major support level 890.00 (which has been reversing the price from June) intersecting with the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from the support level 890.00 started the active intermediate impulse wave (3).
Given the strength of the support level 890.00, Platinum can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 940.00.
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#Platinum reversed from support level 890.00
Likely to rise to resistance level 940.00
Platinum recently reversed up from the major support level 890.00 (which has been reversing the price from June) intersecting with the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from the support level 890.00 started the active intermediate impulse wave (3).
Given the strength of the support level 890.00, Platinum can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 940.00.
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#WaveAnalysis
#EURUSD reversed from support level 1.0645
Likely to rise to resistance level 1.0750
EURUSD currency pair recently reversed up from the support level 1.0645 (former multi-month low from May) intersecting with the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The support level 1.0645 was strengthened by the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from 2022.
Given the clear daily uptrend and the oversold daily Stochastic, EURUSD currency pair can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 1.0750.
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#EURUSD reversed from support level 1.0645
Likely to rise to resistance level 1.0750
EURUSD currency pair recently reversed up from the support level 1.0645 (former multi-month low from May) intersecting with the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The support level 1.0645 was strengthened by the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from 2022.
Given the clear daily uptrend and the oversold daily Stochastic, EURUSD currency pair can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 1.0750.
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The crypto market gained around 3% last week, taking its capitalisation to $1.06 trillion - the highest since late August. The market dip at the start of the previous week has fuelled buyers' appetite.
But we are also seeing interest in crypto, in contrast to the sell-off in tech giants. We saw something similar in the spring as capital fled regional banks in the US. Isn’t it a sign that something is brewing in the banking sector again?
Trading at $26.5K, #Bitcoin has recovered to 76.4% of the decline from the July peak to the September trough. Recent optimism shows that we could see a classical correction to 61.8%, near $27.5K.
The 200-day moving average and the late August peak area are concentrated near that level. So, the battle for the trend, which has now eased slightly, is set to intensify.
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But we are also seeing interest in crypto, in contrast to the sell-off in tech giants. We saw something similar in the spring as capital fled regional banks in the US. Isn’t it a sign that something is brewing in the banking sector again?
Trading at $26.5K, #Bitcoin has recovered to 76.4% of the decline from the July peak to the September trough. Recent optimism shows that we could see a classical correction to 61.8%, near $27.5K.
The 200-day moving average and the late August peak area are concentrated near that level. So, the battle for the trend, which has now eased slightly, is set to intensify.
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📺 New Video Alert! Curious about the oil market's recent surge, crypto trends, and other key events?
🚀 Get up to speed with the latest in trading here
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🚀 Get up to speed with the latest in trading here
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Weekly Pro Analysis | New Oil Highs & Preview For a Big Week for Central Banks
Hello and welcome to another edition of FxPro's Weekly Market Recap! In this video, we'll bring you up to speed with the most recent developments in the financial world.
Join us as we dissect the week’s top stories and offer valuable insights into the world…
Join us as we dissect the week’s top stories and offer valuable insights into the world…
A bull trap in gold?
Gold added almost 1% on Friday, having managed to defend against a fall below $1900 the day before. The price tests the long-term and medium-term trends for the second month, leaving the Fed to make a decisive argument in favour of the bulls or the bears. Friday's rise so far looks like a trap for the bears.
Gold closed last week minimally above its 200-day moving average. In the past two months, this is the second attempt by the bulls to prove that the dip below this line, which acts as a long-term trend indicator, was false, and the long-term uptrend is still in place.
However, this looks more like a temporary revenge, raising the chances of an even more disorganised retreat shortly.
Gold's performance in August also looks telling. Gold's dip towards $1890 attracted buyers, but they quickly rushed to take profits on the approach to $1950 and failed to stay above the 50-day moving average for long.
Gold added almost 1% on Friday, having managed to defend against a fall below $1900 the day before. The price tests the long-term and medium-term trends for the second month, leaving the Fed to make a decisive argument in favour of the bulls or the bears. Friday's rise so far looks like a trap for the bears.
Gold closed last week minimally above its 200-day moving average. In the past two months, this is the second attempt by the bulls to prove that the dip below this line, which acts as a long-term trend indicator, was false, and the long-term uptrend is still in place.
However, this looks more like a temporary revenge, raising the chances of an even more disorganised retreat shortly.
Gold's performance in August also looks telling. Gold's dip towards $1890 attracted buyers, but they quickly rushed to take profits on the approach to $1950 and failed to stay above the 50-day moving average for long.
Since May, gold has been in a downtrend with increasingly lower local highs (in May, July, and early September) and declining lows (in June and August).
Gold's impulsive rebound late last week was counter-intuitive as it coincided with a broad sell-off in equities. However, there is often a direct correlation between these asset classes.
While a temporary balance of power can be seen in the market, we still see more potential for a bearish scenario. However, it has yet to prove its strength.
Thus, confidence in further declines will increase if gold returns under the 200-day moving average at $1922. In this case, we should expect a short-term decline under the previous lows at $1890 with a potential downside at $1850, the lower boundary of the descending channel formed.
Alternatively, if gold consolidates above $1930 and gains strength further above the 50-day moving average, it will make us consider a trend change to an uptrend.
In all cases, the market may give false signals until Wednesday evening, when we will see the market reaction to the Fed's rate comments. The upcoming meeting has the potential to reverse the current short-term picture.
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Gold's impulsive rebound late last week was counter-intuitive as it coincided with a broad sell-off in equities. However, there is often a direct correlation between these asset classes.
While a temporary balance of power can be seen in the market, we still see more potential for a bearish scenario. However, it has yet to prove its strength.
Thus, confidence in further declines will increase if gold returns under the 200-day moving average at $1922. In this case, we should expect a short-term decline under the previous lows at $1890 with a potential downside at $1850, the lower boundary of the descending channel formed.
Alternatively, if gold consolidates above $1930 and gains strength further above the 50-day moving average, it will make us consider a trend change to an uptrend.
In all cases, the market may give false signals until Wednesday evening, when we will see the market reaction to the Fed's rate comments. The upcoming meeting has the potential to reverse the current short-term picture.
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#WaveAnalysis
#Silver reversed from support level 22.50
Likely to rise to resistance level 23.50
Silver recently reversed up from the strong multi-month support level 22.50 (which has been reversing the price from June) intersecting with the lower daily Bollinger Band and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from March.
The upward reversal from the support level 22.50 stopped the previous short-term ABC corrective wave 2.
Given the strength of the support level 22.50, Silver can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 23.50.
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#Silver reversed from support level 22.50
Likely to rise to resistance level 23.50
Silver recently reversed up from the strong multi-month support level 22.50 (which has been reversing the price from June) intersecting with the lower daily Bollinger Band and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from March.
The upward reversal from the support level 22.50 stopped the previous short-term ABC corrective wave 2.
Given the strength of the support level 22.50, Silver can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 23.50.
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#WaveAnalysis
#EURAUD reversed from support level 1.6535
Likely to rise to resistance level 1.6800
EURAUD currency pair recently reversed up from the support level 1.6535 (former resistance from May, June and July) intersecting with the lower daily Bollinger Band and the support trendline of the daily down channel from August.
The upward reversal from the support level 1.6535 stopped the previous short-term impulse wave 3.
Given the clear daily uptrend, EURAUD currency pair can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 1.6800.
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#EURAUD reversed from support level 1.6535
Likely to rise to resistance level 1.6800
EURAUD currency pair recently reversed up from the support level 1.6535 (former resistance from May, June and July) intersecting with the lower daily Bollinger Band and the support trendline of the daily down channel from August.
The upward reversal from the support level 1.6535 stopped the previous short-term impulse wave 3.
Given the clear daily uptrend, EURAUD currency pair can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 1.6800.
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Crypto market capitalisation exceeds $1.07 trillion (+0.6% in 24h), maintaining its upward trend over the last seven days.
#Bitcoin hit $27.4K on Monday for the first time since late August but quickly pulled back to $26.8K. This was the second failed attempt to break above the 50-day moving average since early August and the second downward reversal on the approach to the 200-day MA.
This is an important signal that the bears are still in control of the situation in the largest cryptocurrency, even though they gave some space to "play" as we expected yesterday.
#Ethereum, unlike the first crypto, is moving strictly to the right, almost pegged to $1640. The long consolidation removes oversold conditions and prepares liquidity for a new round of declines.
However, much for the two largest cryptos this week depends on big central banks comments, from the Fed to the Bank of Japan. They can either bring back risk appetite or completely undermine it.
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#Bitcoin hit $27.4K on Monday for the first time since late August but quickly pulled back to $26.8K. This was the second failed attempt to break above the 50-day moving average since early August and the second downward reversal on the approach to the 200-day MA.
This is an important signal that the bears are still in control of the situation in the largest cryptocurrency, even though they gave some space to "play" as we expected yesterday.
#Ethereum, unlike the first crypto, is moving strictly to the right, almost pegged to $1640. The long consolidation removes oversold conditions and prepares liquidity for a new round of declines.
However, much for the two largest cryptos this week depends on big central banks comments, from the Fed to the Bank of Japan. They can either bring back risk appetite or completely undermine it.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
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Get ready for some sizzling opportunities in the stock market! Instacart and Klaviyo, two red-hot companies, are about to make their big IPO debuts. 🔥
🛒 Instacart: The grocery delivery giant is priced at the top end of expectations, signaling high demand.
🌐 Klaviyo: The marketing software sensation is raising expectations for its upcoming IPO. Klaviyo's innovative solutions are set to reshape the marketing tech landscape.
🔜You will soon be able to Buy or Sell the new stocks on our MT5 accounts 📈📉
marketing communication, not recommendation or advice
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#USDCAD is down 1.9% at 1.3430 since 8 September, when the pair reversed sharply lower as it approached 1.3700. Since 2003, the pair has only traded above 1.3700 for relatively short periods at the height of the crisis. The Canadian dollar became attractive for long-term buying as soon as the dust settled after the market crash during the oil collapse in 2015 and lockdowns in 2020.
Over 2022 and 2023, CAD has held back from testing multi-year lows against the USD despite the latter's broad rally. On more than one occasion this year, we have seen the USDCAD sell-off intensify as it entered the 1.3600 area. September is no exception, as we see a similar decline in intensity to that seen in June.
The fundamental news for the Canadian dollar is the rise in oil prices. US producers are still unable to close their operating deficits that lifts demand for Canadian crude.
Over 2022 and 2023, CAD has held back from testing multi-year lows against the USD despite the latter's broad rally. On more than one occasion this year, we have seen the USDCAD sell-off intensify as it entered the 1.3600 area. September is no exception, as we see a similar decline in intensity to that seen in June.
The fundamental news for the Canadian dollar is the rise in oil prices. US producers are still unable to close their operating deficits that lifts demand for Canadian crude.
The 36% rise in crude oil prices since the end of June has convinced investors that Canadian exports will benefit from the recent price spike. Moreover, it could also be why the Bank of Canada shifted its policy towards more tightening after two months of CPI acceleration.
The latest data, which showed an acceleration in the annual pace to 4.0% from 2.8% in June and 3.3% in July, raised expectations for another rate hike by the Bank of Canada later this year.
USDCAD's failure on Tuesday also carries an important technical signal. The pair broke above both its 50- and 200-day moving averages during the day. The last time this happened was in early June; a sell-off for almost a month followed the signal.
As well as indicating the strength of the Canadian economy, the active decline in the USDCAD may also be a sign of growing risk appetite among North American investors. This could be an important leading signal for global markets.
The latest data, which showed an acceleration in the annual pace to 4.0% from 2.8% in June and 3.3% in July, raised expectations for another rate hike by the Bank of Canada later this year.
USDCAD's failure on Tuesday also carries an important technical signal. The pair broke above both its 50- and 200-day moving averages during the day. The last time this happened was in early June; a sell-off for almost a month followed the signal.
As well as indicating the strength of the Canadian economy, the active decline in the USDCAD may also be a sign of growing risk appetite among North American investors. This could be an important leading signal for global markets.
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#WaveAnalysis
#GBPCHF reversed from multi-month support level 1.1080
Likely to rise to resistance level 1.1170
GBPCHF currency pair recently reversed up from the major, multi-month support level 1.1080 (which has been reversing the price from February) intersecting with the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from the support level 1.1080 stopped the previous short-term impulse wave iii.
Given the strength of the support level 1.1080, GBPCHF can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 1.1170 (top of the previous correction ii).
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#GBPCHF reversed from multi-month support level 1.1080
Likely to rise to resistance level 1.1170
GBPCHF currency pair recently reversed up from the major, multi-month support level 1.1080 (which has been reversing the price from February) intersecting with the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from the support level 1.1080 stopped the previous short-term impulse wave iii.
Given the strength of the support level 1.1080, GBPCHF can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 1.1170 (top of the previous correction ii).
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
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