#WaveAnalysis
#GBPCAD reversed from resistance level 1.7300
Likely to fall to support level 1.7020
GBPCAD currency pair recently reversed down from the pivotal resistance level 1.7300 (previous monthly high from July) intersecting with the upper daily Bollinger Band.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 1.7300 started the active short-term correction ii.
Given the still overbought daily Stochastic and strong sterling sales, GBPCAD can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 1.7020 (low of the previous correction ii).
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#GBPCAD reversed from resistance level 1.7300
Likely to fall to support level 1.7020
GBPCAD currency pair recently reversed down from the pivotal resistance level 1.7300 (previous monthly high from July) intersecting with the upper daily Bollinger Band.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 1.7300 started the active short-term correction ii.
Given the still overbought daily Stochastic and strong sterling sales, GBPCAD can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 1.7020 (low of the previous correction ii).
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Thursday's sell-off in the US stock market forced cryptocurrencies to bounce back from the previous day. As a result, the crypto market capitalisation is back at $1.05 trillion (-1.8% in 24 hours).
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is in "Fear" territory for the latest week but far from oversold and not yet attractive to bargain hunters.
#Bitcoin has entered another long horizontal consolidation and is going down another ladder. The previous two ladders were from late June to mid-July (around $30.5K) and from late July to mid-August (around $29.3K).
#Ethereum is consolidating around $1650, a significant pivot level of the last 12 months. A failure below this level could start a capitulation that could take the price to 1,200 within a week or two. The ability to hold here would indicate buyer support, potentially kick-starting a rally.
However, we still see a higher probability of a continued downturn in the crypto market in the coming months.
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is in "Fear" territory for the latest week but far from oversold and not yet attractive to bargain hunters.
#Bitcoin has entered another long horizontal consolidation and is going down another ladder. The previous two ladders were from late June to mid-July (around $30.5K) and from late July to mid-August (around $29.3K).
#Ethereum is consolidating around $1650, a significant pivot level of the last 12 months. A failure below this level could start a capitulation that could take the price to 1,200 within a week or two. The ability to hold here would indicate buyer support, potentially kick-starting a rally.
However, we still see a higher probability of a continued downturn in the crypto market in the coming months.
Bears take hold of US indices
It was a very telling performance from the US equity market on Thursday, as three major indices - the S&P500, Nasdaq-100 and Dow Jones 30 - confirmed the dominance of the bearish trend. At least in the medium term.
The most closely followed US market indices experienced a sharp sell-off as they approached their 50-day averages. The amplitude of Thursday's decline was more significant than the market's surge the day before. It was a battle between expectations and reality.
Expectations were represented by the tech sector with the latest hype around AI and its realisation in the form of Nvidia's report and forecasts. The company beat revenue expectations by a wide margin last quarter and raised expectations for the coming quarter. But this optimism managed to fuel further buying interest in the stock. Nvidia shares were up 0.3% by the end of the day, having risen 10% in the pre-market.
It was a very telling performance from the US equity market on Thursday, as three major indices - the S&P500, Nasdaq-100 and Dow Jones 30 - confirmed the dominance of the bearish trend. At least in the medium term.
The most closely followed US market indices experienced a sharp sell-off as they approached their 50-day averages. The amplitude of Thursday's decline was more significant than the market's surge the day before. It was a battle between expectations and reality.
Expectations were represented by the tech sector with the latest hype around AI and its realisation in the form of Nvidia's report and forecasts. The company beat revenue expectations by a wide margin last quarter and raised expectations for the coming quarter. But this optimism managed to fuel further buying interest in the stock. Nvidia shares were up 0.3% by the end of the day, having risen 10% in the pre-market.
Markets came under pressure from restrictive interest rates. In response to another small batch of economic data that fed the hawks at the Fed, demands increased their expectations that the Fed was not done raising rates. For the first time since March, the probability that the Fed Funds rate would be above 5.50-5.75% at the end of the November 1 meeting rose above 51%. That probability fell to 49% on Friday, according to the FedWatch tool, supporting a slight rebound in equity futures.
On Thursday, the Dow Jones Index lost more than 1.6% from its intraday high, with the selling intensifying just after the touch of the 50-day moving average. A similar but less intense dynamic was seen on Monday. By Thursday, however, it was clear that the bears were in control. At least as far as the medium-term trend is concerned. There is now a sparse area on the chart up to 33800, where the 200-day moving average and a few support points pass through. A full-blown correction of the index's rise since October 2022 is around 33000.
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The dynamics of the S&P 500 near its 50-day clearly show the importance of this level. The initial drop below it on August 10 was followed by three days of declines in the index. And Thursday's attempt to cross this curve from the bottom to the top triggered a sharp sell-off that wiped out more than 1.3% of the day's gains and almost all gains made since the beginning of the week. Should the risk-off sentiment persist, the S&P500 could quickly return to 4200.
The Nasdaq-100, which lost around 2.2% on Thursday, also suffered a heavy sell-off as it touched its 50-day moving average. The index also fell out of its bullish corridor for the second time this year. If the severity of high interest rates is indeed becoming a market driver, then growth stocks look the most vulnerable. If this is the case, it makes sense to expect a deeper correction in the Nasdaq, which could take the index as low as 13300, with a chance of an earlier stop in the 13700-14000 area.
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#WaveAnalysis
#CHFJPY reverses from support level 164.30
Likely to rise to resistance level 166.60
CHFJPY currency pair earlier reversed up from the support level 164.30 (former resistance that stopped the previous impulse wave 1 at the start of August).
The support level 164.30 was strengthened by the nearby 20-day moving average and by the support trendline of the daily up channel from March.
Given the strong daily uptrend, CHFJPY can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 166.60 (which reversed the pair earlier this month).
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#CHFJPY reverses from support level 164.30
Likely to rise to resistance level 166.60
CHFJPY currency pair earlier reversed up from the support level 164.30 (former resistance that stopped the previous impulse wave 1 at the start of August).
The support level 164.30 was strengthened by the nearby 20-day moving average and by the support trendline of the daily up channel from March.
Given the strong daily uptrend, CHFJPY can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 166.60 (which reversed the pair earlier this month).
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#WaveAnalysis
#USDCAD reverses from support at 1.3500
Likely to rise to resistance level 1.3650
USDCAD recently bounced back from the support level 1.3500 (former resistance that stopped the previous impulse wave (i) at the start of August).
The pair had previously broken the daily descending channel from March, which accelerated the active short-term impulse wave 3 of the intermediate impulse wave (C) from July.
Given the strong gains in the USD, USDCAD is expected to continue rising towards the next resistance level of 1.3650 (which reversed the previous waves B and ii, the target for the completion of the active impulse wave 3).
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#USDCAD reverses from support at 1.3500
Likely to rise to resistance level 1.3650
USDCAD recently bounced back from the support level 1.3500 (former resistance that stopped the previous impulse wave (i) at the start of August).
The pair had previously broken the daily descending channel from March, which accelerated the active short-term impulse wave 3 of the intermediate impulse wave (C) from July.
Given the strong gains in the USD, USDCAD is expected to continue rising towards the next resistance level of 1.3650 (which reversed the previous waves B and ii, the target for the completion of the active impulse wave 3).
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#WaveAnalysis #COST
Costco falling inside impulse wave i
– Likely to reach support level 520.00
Costco continues to fall inside the impulse wave i of the weekly impulse wave (C), which started earlier from the major resistance level 564.00.
The resistance level 564.00 was strengthened by the upper weekly Bollinger Band and the upper resistance trendline of the weekly up channel from the start of this year.
Given the still overbought weekly Stochastic, Costco can be expected to fall further to the next support level 520.00 (former resistance from January).
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Costco falling inside impulse wave i
– Likely to reach support level 520.00
Costco continues to fall inside the impulse wave i of the weekly impulse wave (C), which started earlier from the major resistance level 564.00.
The resistance level 564.00 was strengthened by the upper weekly Bollinger Band and the upper resistance trendline of the weekly up channel from the start of this year.
Given the still overbought weekly Stochastic, Costco can be expected to fall further to the next support level 520.00 (former resistance from January).
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Despite a mid-week spike in volatility, the cryptocurrency market remained virtually unchanged from the previous week's capitalisation level, hovering around $1.050 trillion (-1% in 7 days). Bitcoin's decline was a negligible 0.7%, while altcoins suffered losses of around 2%.
The technical picture for Bitcoin remains bearish on weekly timeframes, as the price is below its 200-week average and outside of its ascending channel. The most likely short-term outlook is for a decline to the $23.9-24.6K region, with the lower boundary being the 50-week average and the upper one being the pivot area from last August.
According to Santiment, large investors continue to accumulate positions. The number of wallets with balances between 10 and 10,000 BTC totalled 156,600, and these accounts have accumulated $308.6 million since the 17th of August.
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The technical picture for Bitcoin remains bearish on weekly timeframes, as the price is below its 200-week average and outside of its ascending channel. The most likely short-term outlook is for a decline to the $23.9-24.6K region, with the lower boundary being the 50-week average and the upper one being the pivot area from last August.
According to Santiment, large investors continue to accumulate positions. The number of wallets with balances between 10 and 10,000 BTC totalled 156,600, and these accounts have accumulated $308.6 million since the 17th of August.
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The dollar cleared the way up but is short-term overbought
Have the dollar bulls finally won, or do the sellers still have a chance? The answer may not come until later in the week.
The dollar index finished with growth for the sixth week in a row, climbing on Friday to its highest since March and trading above 104.
The dollar formally broke a multi-month downtrend by climbing above the May highs. The trend breakdown is also indicated by the fact that the DXY last week rebounded solidly from the 200-day moving average and the previous resistance line of the descending channel.
Also, the 50-day moving average reversed to the upside last week, providing further evidence of a bullish trend reversal.
Have the dollar bulls finally won, or do the sellers still have a chance? The answer may not come until later in the week.
The dollar index finished with growth for the sixth week in a row, climbing on Friday to its highest since March and trading above 104.
The dollar formally broke a multi-month downtrend by climbing above the May highs. The trend breakdown is also indicated by the fact that the DXY last week rebounded solidly from the 200-day moving average and the previous resistance line of the descending channel.
Also, the 50-day moving average reversed to the upside last week, providing further evidence of a bullish trend reversal.
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The multi-week dollar rally created certain risks of a short-term correction, as the RSI index entered the overbought area, exceeding 70 on daily intervals. During the dollar's rally in the first nine months of last year, the dollar was running out of steam after entering overbought territory, but it could take anywhere from a week to three weeks.
If the dollar correction starts, the index may roll back to 102.1-102.4 from current levels, clearing the way for a new growth impulse.
If one looks beyond the short-term moves, the latest rise cleared the way for the dollar to make more critical highs near 105.3 before the end of the quarter. The DXY can return to 107.5 in the longer term, last seen back in November.
Speeches at Jackson Hole last week failed to stoke the fire of volatility in the markets, and now a meaningful trigger won't come until Friday in the form of the monthly labour market report.
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If the dollar correction starts, the index may roll back to 102.1-102.4 from current levels, clearing the way for a new growth impulse.
If one looks beyond the short-term moves, the latest rise cleared the way for the dollar to make more critical highs near 105.3 before the end of the quarter. The DXY can return to 107.5 in the longer term, last seen back in November.
Speeches at Jackson Hole last week failed to stoke the fire of volatility in the markets, and now a meaningful trigger won't come until Friday in the form of the monthly labour market report.
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#WaveAnalysis
#AUDUSD reversed from the support level 0.6400
Likely to rise to resistance level 0.6500
AUDUSD currency pair recently reversed up from the support level 0.6400, which has been reversing the pair since last November.
The support level 0.6400 was strengthened by the nearby lower daily Bollinger Band and the support trendline of the wide down channel from February.
Given the strength of the support level 0.6400, AUDUSD currency pair can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 0.6500 (former multi-month support from May).
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#AUDUSD reversed from the support level 0.6400
Likely to rise to resistance level 0.6500
AUDUSD currency pair recently reversed up from the support level 0.6400, which has been reversing the pair since last November.
The support level 0.6400 was strengthened by the nearby lower daily Bollinger Band and the support trendline of the wide down channel from February.
Given the strength of the support level 0.6400, AUDUSD currency pair can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 0.6500 (former multi-month support from May).
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#WaveAnalysis
#GBPJPY reversed from key support level 183.65
Likely to test resistance level 186.00
GBPJPY currency pair recently reversed up from the key support level 183.65, which reversed the pair in June and July.
The upward reversal from the support level 183.65 stopped the earlier short-term correction ii.
Given the clear daily uptrend, GBPJPY currency pair can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 186.00 (which reversed the pair earlier this month).
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#GBPJPY reversed from key support level 183.65
Likely to test resistance level 186.00
GBPJPY currency pair recently reversed up from the key support level 183.65, which reversed the pair in June and July.
The upward reversal from the support level 183.65 stopped the earlier short-term correction ii.
Given the clear daily uptrend, GBPJPY currency pair can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 186.00 (which reversed the pair earlier this month).
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The crypto market continues to trade in a 0.3% range around the $1.05 trillion capitalisation level. Despite some improvement in risk sentiment, sellers got the upper hand on the approach of the 1.06 trillion level.
The narrow range has also become a hallmark of Bitcoin, which has been walking on a short leash of around $26K for the past eleven days. Such a lull usually ends with a boom in volatility, which is what we should expect this week.
Bitcoin's tera hash profit margin has reached historic lows as the price has fallen, and the network's hash rate has risen as more efficient ASICs went to work. Without a rise in the BTC exchange rate, miners' operations will soon become unprofitable.
The narrow range has also become a hallmark of Bitcoin, which has been walking on a short leash of around $26K for the past eleven days. Such a lull usually ends with a boom in volatility, which is what we should expect this week.
Bitcoin's tera hash profit margin has reached historic lows as the price has fallen, and the network's hash rate has risen as more efficient ASICs went to work. Without a rise in the BTC exchange rate, miners' operations will soon become unprofitable.
🤩Introducing a New Stock: VinFast - The Rising Star in EV Industry 🚘
We are excited to introduce a new addition to our stock offerings - Vietnamese electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer VinFast. This emerging player has captured the market's attention by achieving a remarkable feat on its debut trading day - surpassing the valuations of industry giants Ford and General Motors (GM).
VinFast's bold business model is centred around becoming a global disruptor in the EV market. Their strategic approach has already manifested in impressive production capacity growth. Despite not yet being profitable, VinFast's shares closed above $37 in their recent New York debut, elevating the company's stock market valuation to an impressive $85 billion.
This valuation places VinFast well ahead of established industry players Ford ($48 billion) and GM ($46 billion). As the electric vehicle market experiences a surge in competition, with established giants and innovative newcomers vying for a share, VinFast's rise signals a noteworthy shift.
Interestingly, VinFast's main competitor is none other than Tesla. This raises an intriguing question: how will VinFast's trajectory compare to the EV pioneer? As an investor, you have the opportunity to analyse this market development and decide whether you see VinFast as a buying or selling opportunity.
More information and trading conditions can be found here: https://www.fxpro.com/trading/shares/vfso
We are excited to introduce a new addition to our stock offerings - Vietnamese electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer VinFast. This emerging player has captured the market's attention by achieving a remarkable feat on its debut trading day - surpassing the valuations of industry giants Ford and General Motors (GM).
VinFast's bold business model is centred around becoming a global disruptor in the EV market. Their strategic approach has already manifested in impressive production capacity growth. Despite not yet being profitable, VinFast's shares closed above $37 in their recent New York debut, elevating the company's stock market valuation to an impressive $85 billion.
This valuation places VinFast well ahead of established industry players Ford ($48 billion) and GM ($46 billion). As the electric vehicle market experiences a surge in competition, with established giants and innovative newcomers vying for a share, VinFast's rise signals a noteworthy shift.
Interestingly, VinFast's main competitor is none other than Tesla. This raises an intriguing question: how will VinFast's trajectory compare to the EV pioneer? As an investor, you have the opportunity to analyse this market development and decide whether you see VinFast as a buying or selling opportunity.
More information and trading conditions can be found here: https://www.fxpro.com/trading/shares/vfso
Gold is probably ending a short-term bounce
#Gold's rally appears to be running out of steam after a 2% rally since the beginning of last week.
Gold has been at the mercy of sellers for a month since the 20th, losing over 5.2% from peak to trough. Gold began to look oversold in the short term after falling below $1885.
The price fell below the 50-day and then the 200-day moving averages in August. The rally in recent days has brought the price back above the long moving average, but the short moving average is effectively acting as resistance. The last time we saw this dynamic was in May last year, followed by five months of declines before a reversal to the upside.
The situation could repeat itself this time around. At the end of last week, the rally slowed considerably, and since the start of the day on Tuesday, gold is down 0.2%, having fallen to $1915 an ounce in the spot market.
#Gold's rally appears to be running out of steam after a 2% rally since the beginning of last week.
Gold has been at the mercy of sellers for a month since the 20th, losing over 5.2% from peak to trough. Gold began to look oversold in the short term after falling below $1885.
The price fell below the 50-day and then the 200-day moving averages in August. The rally in recent days has brought the price back above the long moving average, but the short moving average is effectively acting as resistance. The last time we saw this dynamic was in May last year, followed by five months of declines before a reversal to the upside.
The situation could repeat itself this time around. At the end of last week, the rally slowed considerably, and since the start of the day on Tuesday, gold is down 0.2%, having fallen to $1915 an ounce in the spot market.
The rally since the beginning of last week fits into the Fibonacci pattern, having lost upward momentum as it approached the 61.8% retracement of the initial drop.
Confidence in gold's further decline will be boosted by a quick return below the 200-day average, now above $1910. The final confirmation of this pattern would be a return to August's local lows at $1885, opening the way to $1820.
Separately, it is worth noting that gold has temporarily returned to a direct correlation with the equity market. In contrast, in the spring of this year and last, it was the other way round: equity sell-offs were accompanied by frenzied gold buying.
Last year, it was geopolitics, and this spring, it was fears about bank capital retention. The latter has fallen off the radar but is hardly exhausted, and it would not be surprising to see it back on the front pages of the financial press in September-October. This could be an essential pivot point for growth for gold, but no earlier.
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Confidence in gold's further decline will be boosted by a quick return below the 200-day average, now above $1910. The final confirmation of this pattern would be a return to August's local lows at $1885, opening the way to $1820.
Separately, it is worth noting that gold has temporarily returned to a direct correlation with the equity market. In contrast, in the spring of this year and last, it was the other way round: equity sell-offs were accompanied by frenzied gold buying.
Last year, it was geopolitics, and this spring, it was fears about bank capital retention. The latter has fallen off the radar but is hardly exhausted, and it would not be surprising to see it back on the front pages of the financial press in September-October. This could be an essential pivot point for growth for gold, but no earlier.
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