#WaveAnalysis
#EURCHF reversed from support level 0.9530
Likely to rise to resistance level 0.9640
EURCHF currency pair recently reversed up from the key support level 0.9530 (which stopped the sharp downtrend in July), coinciding with the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from the support level 0.9530 stopped the previous short-term impulse wave 3.
Given the strength of the support level 0.9530 and the bullish divergence on the daily Stochastic, EURCHF can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 0.9640 (top of the previous waves (4) and 2).
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
#EURCHF reversed from support level 0.9530
Likely to rise to resistance level 0.9640
EURCHF currency pair recently reversed up from the key support level 0.9530 (which stopped the sharp downtrend in July), coinciding with the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from the support level 0.9530 stopped the previous short-term impulse wave 3.
Given the strength of the support level 0.9530 and the bullish divergence on the daily Stochastic, EURCHF can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 0.9640 (top of the previous waves (4) and 2).
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
#WaveAnalysis #UK100
#FTSE100 index reversed from support level 7200
Likely to rise to resistance level 7400
FTSE100 index recently reversed up from the powerful support level 7200 (former multi-month low from March), coinciding with the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The support level 7200 was further strengthened by the nearby support trendline of the wide daily down channel from April.
Given the strength of the support level 7200 and the oversold daily Stochastic, FTSE100 index can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 7400.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
#FTSE100 index reversed from support level 7200
Likely to rise to resistance level 7400
FTSE100 index recently reversed up from the powerful support level 7200 (former multi-month low from March), coinciding with the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The support level 7200 was further strengthened by the nearby support trendline of the wide daily down channel from April.
Given the strength of the support level 7200 and the oversold daily Stochastic, FTSE100 index can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 7400.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
German PPI’s sharp drop lifts peak-rates hopes
The sharp fall in German producer prices is both a signal of easing inflationary pressures and a warning of a sharp slowdown in demand.
The German producer price index fell by 1.1% in July, dwarfing the expected correction of 0.1%. Prices are 6% lower than a year ago, marking the sharpest annual decline since 2009.
The data shows how quickly producers are cutting prices after the value of imports fell 11.4% y/y in June. This momentum raises hopes that inflation in Germany may not be as sticky as in other advanced economies, where rising service costs and a tight labour market are pushing up final prices.
Rapidly falling prices and weak business sentiment indicators have brought Germany's title ‘Sick man of Europe’ back into the spotlight, although such comparisons seem premature. Germany, which has often been resolute in its fight against inflation, may soften its stance.
The sharp fall in German producer prices is both a signal of easing inflationary pressures and a warning of a sharp slowdown in demand.
The German producer price index fell by 1.1% in July, dwarfing the expected correction of 0.1%. Prices are 6% lower than a year ago, marking the sharpest annual decline since 2009.
The data shows how quickly producers are cutting prices after the value of imports fell 11.4% y/y in June. This momentum raises hopes that inflation in Germany may not be as sticky as in other advanced economies, where rising service costs and a tight labour market are pushing up final prices.
Rapidly falling prices and weak business sentiment indicators have brought Germany's title ‘Sick man of Europe’ back into the spotlight, although such comparisons seem premature. Germany, which has often been resolute in its fight against inflation, may soften its stance.
In that case, the chances of further rate hikes by the ECB may diminish. Signs of a slowdown in the German economy, which is more exposed to China and Russia than other major eurozone economies, point in the same direction.
The German DAX40 is up 0.8% today, and the EuroStoxx50 is up over 1%, actively recovering from last week's losses. This is fuelled by positive traction in US index futures and hopes the ECB rate hike is nearing its peak. Interestingly, the EURUSD is also rising, maintaining its positive correlation with equity market dynamics, temporarily having more weight on the market than the interest-rate differential perspective.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
The German DAX40 is up 0.8% today, and the EuroStoxx50 is up over 1%, actively recovering from last week's losses. This is fuelled by positive traction in US index futures and hopes the ECB rate hike is nearing its peak. Interestingly, the EURUSD is also rising, maintaining its positive correlation with equity market dynamics, temporarily having more weight on the market than the interest-rate differential perspective.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
Natural gas is up 3% on Monday, having managed to break away from support again.
Gas prices formed a low in April just above $2 before starting an uptrend, and prices are now 34% above those lows at $2.75. This is a smooth rise, given that US gas prices peaked at almost $10 a year ago, nearly four times higher.
This price action looks like a textbook accumulation phase after a capitulation. However, optimists should be aware that such inattention to the rise in gas prices can last long.
The uptrend channel originated from the April lows and, since July, has repeatedly acted as a support from which gas buying has intensified. There were attempts to break this trend on Friday and earlier in August, but gas confidently returned to the corridor.
This lower boundary of the channel almost coincided with the 50-day moving average, which has also repeatedly tested its strength since June. It has been pointing up since the beginning of the summer, giving the bulls an additional argument.
Gas prices formed a low in April just above $2 before starting an uptrend, and prices are now 34% above those lows at $2.75. This is a smooth rise, given that US gas prices peaked at almost $10 a year ago, nearly four times higher.
This price action looks like a textbook accumulation phase after a capitulation. However, optimists should be aware that such inattention to the rise in gas prices can last long.
The uptrend channel originated from the April lows and, since July, has repeatedly acted as a support from which gas buying has intensified. There were attempts to break this trend on Friday and earlier in August, but gas confidently returned to the corridor.
This lower boundary of the channel almost coincided with the 50-day moving average, which has also repeatedly tested its strength since June. It has been pointing up since the beginning of the summer, giving the bulls an additional argument.
Having managed to hold the channel’s lower boundary, Natural Gas appears to be heading for its upper boundary, above $3.16. The 200-day moving average is slightly higher at $3.23.
The ability of gas to consolidate above its 200-day moving average will attract our attention, as it could herald a more active bullish phase in the market, potentially opening a quick path to $4.0 or even $5.5.
Locally, a “strategy” works against this scenario on the higher – weekly – timeframes where the 50-week moving average has dropped below the 200-week moving average. This formation is called a “death cross” and gives clear signals in the commodity markets at the current timeframes. However, we believe that the gas capitulation has already occurred between November last year and February this year.
The ability of gas to consolidate above its 200-day moving average will attract our attention, as it could herald a more active bullish phase in the market, potentially opening a quick path to $4.0 or even $5.5.
Locally, a “strategy” works against this scenario on the higher – weekly – timeframes where the 50-week moving average has dropped below the 200-week moving average. This formation is called a “death cross” and gives clear signals in the commodity markets at the current timeframes. However, we believe that the gas capitulation has already occurred between November last year and February this year.
👍1
#WaveAnalysis
#AUDJPY reversed from support level 93.00
Likely to rise to resistance level 94.35
AUDJPY currency pair recently reversed up from the support level 93.00 (which has been reversing the price from the end of July), coinciding with the lower daily Bollinger Band and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the sharp upward impulse from March.
The upward reversal from the support level 93.00 is likely to form the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Morning Star.
Given the strong yen sales, AUDJPY currency pair can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 94.35.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
#AUDJPY reversed from support level 93.00
Likely to rise to resistance level 94.35
AUDJPY currency pair recently reversed up from the support level 93.00 (which has been reversing the price from the end of July), coinciding with the lower daily Bollinger Band and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the sharp upward impulse from March.
The upward reversal from the support level 93.00 is likely to form the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Morning Star.
Given the strong yen sales, AUDJPY currency pair can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 94.35.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
#WaveAnalysis
#AUDCAD reversed from support level 0.8630
Likely to rise to resistance level 0.8745
AUDCAD currency pair recently reversed up from the major long-term support level 0.8630 (former strong support from October and November), coinciding with the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from the support level 0.8630 created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Hammer.
Given the strength of the support level 0.8630 and the oversold daily Stochastic, AUDCAD currency pair can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 0.8745.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
#AUDCAD reversed from support level 0.8630
Likely to rise to resistance level 0.8745
AUDCAD currency pair recently reversed up from the major long-term support level 0.8630 (former strong support from October and November), coinciding with the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from the support level 0.8630 created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Hammer.
Given the strength of the support level 0.8630 and the oversold daily Stochastic, AUDCAD currency pair can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 0.8745.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
#WaveAnalysis
#EURJPY reversed from resistance level 159.50
Likely to fall to support level 157.40
EURJPY currency pair recently reversed down from the resistance level 159.50 (top of the previous minor impulse wave i), coinciding with the upper daily Bollinger Band.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 159.50 is likely to form the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Dark Cloud Cover.
Given the overbought daily Stochastic, EURJPY currency pair can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 157.40 (former resistance from July).
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
#EURJPY reversed from resistance level 159.50
Likely to fall to support level 157.40
EURJPY currency pair recently reversed down from the resistance level 159.50 (top of the previous minor impulse wave i), coinciding with the upper daily Bollinger Band.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 159.50 is likely to form the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Dark Cloud Cover.
Given the overbought daily Stochastic, EURJPY currency pair can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 157.40 (former resistance from July).
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
❤1👍1
#WaveAnalysis
#Silver reversed from support level 22.50
Likely to rise to resistance level 24.50
Silver recently reversed up from the pivotal support level 22.50 (which previously reversed the pair twice in June), coinciding with the lower daily Bollinger Band and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from March.
The upward reversal from the support level 22.50 started the active intermediate impulse wave (3).
Silver can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 24.50 (which has been reversing the price from June).
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
#Silver reversed from support level 22.50
Likely to rise to resistance level 24.50
Silver recently reversed up from the pivotal support level 22.50 (which previously reversed the pair twice in June), coinciding with the lower daily Bollinger Band and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from March.
The upward reversal from the support level 22.50 started the active intermediate impulse wave (3).
Silver can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 24.50 (which has been reversing the price from June).
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
❤1
#WaveAnalysis
#AUDUSD reversed from support level 0.6400
Likely to rise to resistance level 0.6500
AUDUSD currency pair recently reversed up from the key support level 0.6400, which also reversed the pair In November, standing near the lower daily Bollinger Band and the support trendline of the daily down channel from February.
The upward reversal from the support level 0.6400 stopped the earlier short-term impulse wave 3 from the middle of July.
Given the strength of the support level 0.6400 and the oversold daily Stochastic, AUDUSD can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 0.6500.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
#AUDUSD reversed from support level 0.6400
Likely to rise to resistance level 0.6500
AUDUSD currency pair recently reversed up from the key support level 0.6400, which also reversed the pair In November, standing near the lower daily Bollinger Band and the support trendline of the daily down channel from February.
The upward reversal from the support level 0.6400 stopped the earlier short-term impulse wave 3 from the middle of July.
Given the strength of the support level 0.6400 and the oversold daily Stochastic, AUDUSD can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 0.6500.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
#WaveAnalysis
#EURNZD reversed from resistance level 1.8500
Likely to fall to support level 1.8000.
EURNZD recently reversed down from the key resistance level 1.8500 standing well above with the upper weekly and the daily Bollinger Bands.
The downward reversal from the support level 1.8500 stopped the earlier intermediate impulse wave (3) from June.
Given the strength of the resistance level 1.8500 and the overbought weekly Stochastic, EURNZD can be expected to fall further toward the next round support level 1.8000.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
#EURNZD reversed from resistance level 1.8500
Likely to fall to support level 1.8000.
EURNZD recently reversed down from the key resistance level 1.8500 standing well above with the upper weekly and the daily Bollinger Bands.
The downward reversal from the support level 1.8500 stopped the earlier intermediate impulse wave (3) from June.
Given the strength of the resistance level 1.8500 and the overbought weekly Stochastic, EURNZD can be expected to fall further toward the next round support level 1.8000.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
Crypto market capitalisation was up 1.6% over 24 hours to $1.066 trillion, with impressive gains on Wednesday afternoon. Following the strong rally in US tech stocks, buyers are gently picking up cryptocurrencies after the recent sell-off.
#Bitcoin touched a low for the week of $25.33K - above the local June lows of $24.7K, fuelling hopes that the uptrend is still in play. Meanwhile, BTCUSD remains below its 200-week average and the lower boundary of its former bull corridor.
Technically, Bitcoin is dominated by downside risks, with the potential to fall to $23.8K, where the 50-week moving average lies. However, we see Wednesday's rebound as short-term profit-taking on short positions amid the most oversold RSI conditions since June 2022.
Bitcoin's mining difficulty rose 6.17% to an all-time high of 55.6T. According to Glassnode, the network’s 7-day moving average hash rate peaked at 414 EH/s.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
#Bitcoin touched a low for the week of $25.33K - above the local June lows of $24.7K, fuelling hopes that the uptrend is still in play. Meanwhile, BTCUSD remains below its 200-week average and the lower boundary of its former bull corridor.
Technically, Bitcoin is dominated by downside risks, with the potential to fall to $23.8K, where the 50-week moving average lies. However, we see Wednesday's rebound as short-term profit-taking on short positions amid the most oversold RSI conditions since June 2022.
Bitcoin's mining difficulty rose 6.17% to an all-time high of 55.6T. According to Glassnode, the network’s 7-day moving average hash rate peaked at 414 EH/s.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
👍1
There is an important battle for the long-term trend in the euro-dollar pair. The central bank speeches in Jackson Hole on Friday have enough potential to break or reinforce the direction of the past 11 months.
EURUSD is trading near the 1.0850 level after the pair was hit by a sell-off following weak German services PMI data, dragging down the Eurozone Composite PMI.
In minutes, the single currency fell back to the psychologically important round 1.08 level. This is also where the 200-day moving average passes through. These technical factors have rekindled interest in the euro among sellers.
We should also not forget the positive correlation between the single currency and equity indices. The latter’s positive traction helped the EURUSD fully recover, although the move did not develop on Thursday.
The EURUSD is now clinging to the lower boundary of the bullish corridor of the past few months, from which it also reversed in March and early June.
EURUSD is trading near the 1.0850 level after the pair was hit by a sell-off following weak German services PMI data, dragging down the Eurozone Composite PMI.
In minutes, the single currency fell back to the psychologically important round 1.08 level. This is also where the 200-day moving average passes through. These technical factors have rekindled interest in the euro among sellers.
We should also not forget the positive correlation between the single currency and equity indices. The latter’s positive traction helped the EURUSD fully recover, although the move did not develop on Thursday.
The EURUSD is now clinging to the lower boundary of the bullish corridor of the past few months, from which it also reversed in March and early June.
Most likely, the bears haven’t had their last word yet, as the pair hasn’t reached the over-sold region on the daily RSI, even after five and a half weeks of declines, leaving the potential for further drop.
Technically, the bearish reversal followed a failed attempt to break above the 200-week average at 1.12. The single currency has been trading below this since November 2021.
The bears also have the 50-day moving average, which acts as a medium-term trend, on their side. Earlier this month, it turned from support to resistance, taking eight trading sessions. It is, therefore, not surprising that the tug-of-war is intensifying as we approach the long-term trend indicator, the 200-day.
Technically, the bearish reversal followed a failed attempt to break above the 200-week average at 1.12. The single currency has been trading below this since November 2021.
The bears also have the 50-day moving average, which acts as a medium-term trend, on their side. Earlier this month, it turned from support to resistance, taking eight trading sessions. It is, therefore, not surprising that the tug-of-war is intensifying as we approach the long-term trend indicator, the 200-day.
So far, we are seeing more signals in favour of further declines in the pair. However, the most prudent tactic would be to wait for the EURUSD to make a decisive move away from the 200-day moving average. The direction of this breakout promises to be the most accurate indicator of where the pair is headed in the coming months.
If the bulls win, we could see the pair rally to 1.1050 within a few weeks and consolidate the uptrend for months.
A strong EURUSD move below 1.08 in the coming days would be a resounding defeat for the bears, opening a quick path to 1.0650 and the prospect of further weakening the pair to parity in the coming quarters.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
If the bulls win, we could see the pair rally to 1.1050 within a few weeks and consolidate the uptrend for months.
A strong EURUSD move below 1.08 in the coming days would be a resounding defeat for the bears, opening a quick path to 1.0650 and the prospect of further weakening the pair to parity in the coming quarters.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
Data out of the US pointed to a further build-up of pro-inflationary risks from the labour market, giving the Dollar a fresh boost intraday.
Fresh data showed weekly jobless claims fell to 230K, down from 240K and 250K in the previous two weeks. This is the lowest level since May. Initial jobless claims fell to 1,702K from 1,711K the previous week, remaining in a downtrend.
Futures markets are pricing in a 48% chance of a hike before November, the highest since early July. This repricing is working on the Dollar’s side, pushing short-term bond yields higher and raising the risk-free yield bar.
Fresh data showed weekly jobless claims fell to 230K, down from 240K and 250K in the previous two weeks. This is the lowest level since May. Initial jobless claims fell to 1,702K from 1,711K the previous week, remaining in a downtrend.
Futures markets are pricing in a 48% chance of a hike before November, the highest since early July. This repricing is working on the Dollar’s side, pushing short-term bond yields higher and raising the risk-free yield bar.
❤1
The other report, Durable Goods Orders, wasn’t very encouraging. Total orders fell 5.2%, almost wiping out the previous two months’ gains (+4.4% and 2.0%). Orders excluding transport, which adds volatility to the indicator, rose by 0.5%.
By the same amount, new orders are now above the previous all-time high reached in the middle of last year. While the latter indicator was above analysts’ average forecasts, it indicates a barely vibrant economic expansion.
This combination of factors suggests that companies are reluctant to invest but are forced to hire and pay higher wages.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
By the same amount, new orders are now above the previous all-time high reached in the middle of last year. While the latter indicator was above analysts’ average forecasts, it indicates a barely vibrant economic expansion.
This combination of factors suggests that companies are reluctant to invest but are forced to hire and pay higher wages.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
❤1
#WaveAnalysis
#EURGBP reversed from support level 0.8500
Likely to rise to resistance level 0.8600
EURGBP currency pair recently reversed up from the key support level 0.8500 (previous monthly low from July) and the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from the support level 0.8500 stopped the earlier short-term impulse waves iii and 3 of the impulse wave (3) from February.
Given the strength of the support level 0.8500 and the oversold daily Stochastic, EURGBP can be expected to rise further toward the next support level 0.8600.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
#EURGBP reversed from support level 0.8500
Likely to rise to resistance level 0.8600
EURGBP currency pair recently reversed up from the key support level 0.8500 (previous monthly low from July) and the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from the support level 0.8500 stopped the earlier short-term impulse waves iii and 3 of the impulse wave (3) from February.
Given the strength of the support level 0.8500 and the oversold daily Stochastic, EURGBP can be expected to rise further toward the next support level 0.8600.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
#WaveAnalysis
#GBPCAD reversed from resistance level 1.7300
Likely to fall to support level 1.7020
GBPCAD currency pair recently reversed down from the pivotal resistance level 1.7300 (previous monthly high from July) intersecting with the upper daily Bollinger Band.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 1.7300 started the active short-term correction ii.
Given the still overbought daily Stochastic and strong sterling sales, GBPCAD can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 1.7020 (low of the previous correction ii).
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
#GBPCAD reversed from resistance level 1.7300
Likely to fall to support level 1.7020
GBPCAD currency pair recently reversed down from the pivotal resistance level 1.7300 (previous monthly high from July) intersecting with the upper daily Bollinger Band.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 1.7300 started the active short-term correction ii.
Given the still overbought daily Stochastic and strong sterling sales, GBPCAD can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 1.7020 (low of the previous correction ii).
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
Thursday's sell-off in the US stock market forced cryptocurrencies to bounce back from the previous day. As a result, the crypto market capitalisation is back at $1.05 trillion (-1.8% in 24 hours).
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is in "Fear" territory for the latest week but far from oversold and not yet attractive to bargain hunters.
#Bitcoin has entered another long horizontal consolidation and is going down another ladder. The previous two ladders were from late June to mid-July (around $30.5K) and from late July to mid-August (around $29.3K).
#Ethereum is consolidating around $1650, a significant pivot level of the last 12 months. A failure below this level could start a capitulation that could take the price to 1,200 within a week or two. The ability to hold here would indicate buyer support, potentially kick-starting a rally.
However, we still see a higher probability of a continued downturn in the crypto market in the coming months.
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is in "Fear" territory for the latest week but far from oversold and not yet attractive to bargain hunters.
#Bitcoin has entered another long horizontal consolidation and is going down another ladder. The previous two ladders were from late June to mid-July (around $30.5K) and from late July to mid-August (around $29.3K).
#Ethereum is consolidating around $1650, a significant pivot level of the last 12 months. A failure below this level could start a capitulation that could take the price to 1,200 within a week or two. The ability to hold here would indicate buyer support, potentially kick-starting a rally.
However, we still see a higher probability of a continued downturn in the crypto market in the coming months.