The Crypto market cap rose 3.6% for the week to $1.21 trillion, according to CoinMarketCap. Growth was driven by XPR (+60%), Solana (+32%) and several other altcoins backed by Ripple's case against the SEC.
On a weekly timeframe, #Bitcoin is trending up on the highs and lows but down on the close and open. The market is simply cooling off after rallying from the 200-week average. Failure to rally from current levels opens the door for a correction to the $27 area if risk-off sentiment intensifies later in the week. Alternatively, a move above 32 would confirm the bullish sentiment and open the way to $35K in the coming weeks.
#Ethereum gained 4% to $1930, encountering a sell-off above $2000 but maintaining positive momentum for the week. The performance of the largest altcoin sets the mood for a continuation of the bullish trend for the entire market. Still, we must wait for consolidation above $2000 for confirmation.
On a weekly timeframe, #Bitcoin is trending up on the highs and lows but down on the close and open. The market is simply cooling off after rallying from the 200-week average. Failure to rally from current levels opens the door for a correction to the $27 area if risk-off sentiment intensifies later in the week. Alternatively, a move above 32 would confirm the bullish sentiment and open the way to $35K in the coming weeks.
#Ethereum gained 4% to $1930, encountering a sell-off above $2000 but maintaining positive momentum for the week. The performance of the largest altcoin sets the mood for a continuation of the bullish trend for the entire market. Still, we must wait for consolidation above $2000 for confirmation.
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📢 Nasdaq-100 Rebalancing: Impacts on Big-Tech Stocks! 🚀
📅 On July 24, 2023, a Special Rebalance will occur on the Nasdaq-100 index. This adjustment aims to ensure balance by redistributing weights, keeping the index in check. No securities will be added or removed. 💼
🔍 Big-tech stocks like Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Tesla, Netflix, and Nvidia are now in the spotlight due to these recent developments. 💥
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📅 On July 24, 2023, a Special Rebalance will occur on the Nasdaq-100 index. This adjustment aims to ensure balance by redistributing weights, keeping the index in check. No securities will be added or removed. 💼
🔍 Big-tech stocks like Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Tesla, Netflix, and Nvidia are now in the spotlight due to these recent developments. 💥
You can trade the Nasdaq Index CFD with FxPro across all our trading platforms, offering tight spreads and incredible market conditions. Don't forget tech stocks are available on our MT5 account! 💪
Stay ahead of the game and explore the exciting world of big-tech stocks & global indices with FxPro! 📈📊✨
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Nice Crude Oil reversal inside a downtrend
Crude oil reversed sharply last Friday after rallying almost 15% from the lows at the end of last month. The short-term decline so far fits into a technical correction after the rally. However, looking at the broader trend, this reversal aligns with the year-long price action, with a turnaround from the upper boundary of the descending corridor.
To recap, the oil price has been pushed up since late last month by several factors, from Russia's export cuts, the extension of Saudi Arabia's production cuts and plans to start replenishing the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve to risk-on appetite, as well as a decline in the dollar following US jobs market and inflation data. And only one loud factor on the bears’ side - economic woes. It still needs to be determined whether we are facing a fall in demand or just a slower demand growth.
Crude oil reversed sharply last Friday after rallying almost 15% from the lows at the end of last month. The short-term decline so far fits into a technical correction after the rally. However, looking at the broader trend, this reversal aligns with the year-long price action, with a turnaround from the upper boundary of the descending corridor.
To recap, the oil price has been pushed up since late last month by several factors, from Russia's export cuts, the extension of Saudi Arabia's production cuts and plans to start replenishing the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve to risk-on appetite, as well as a decline in the dollar following US jobs market and inflation data. And only one loud factor on the bears’ side - economic woes. It still needs to be determined whether we are facing a fall in demand or just a slower demand growth.
The technical picture is surprisingly picturesque. WTI crude oil turned sharply lower immediately after touching the 200-day moving average. There were a few days of resistance in early April, but now oil seems to have given up in one fell swoop. At the same time, the reversal occurred immediately after an attempt to break the upper boundary of the descending channel that has been in place since last July.
The lower boundary of this trend is now around $55, but it may take months to reach the lower boundary, and oil may encounter several significant support levels along the way.
First, the bears need to prove to the market that we are seeing more than a correction after the rally on Friday and Monday. In this case, the signal level is $73.3, where 61.8% of the rally has taken place.
The lower boundary of this trend is now around $55, but it may take months to reach the lower boundary, and oil may encounter several significant support levels along the way.
First, the bears need to prove to the market that we are seeing more than a correction after the rally on Friday and Monday. In this case, the signal level is $73.3, where 61.8% of the rally has taken place.
The 50-day moving average, which acts as a medium-term trend indicator, may also be a potential support level. The break above it at the beginning of the month contributed to the interest in buying black gold.
On the downside, oil will need to break through the main support level of recent months - the 67 levels. OPEC+ has been carefully guarding this line since March of this year, repeatedly announcing supply reduction measures near this line. Technically, the 200-week moving average, an indicator of significant cycles in oil, is close to this level. A break below it could open the gates to a long liquidation in oil comparable to that of 2020 or 2014.
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On the downside, oil will need to break through the main support level of recent months - the 67 levels. OPEC+ has been carefully guarding this line since March of this year, repeatedly announcing supply reduction measures near this line. Technically, the 200-week moving average, an indicator of significant cycles in oil, is close to this level. A break below it could open the gates to a long liquidation in oil comparable to that of 2020 or 2014.
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#WaveAnalysis
#NZDUSD reversed from resistance level 0.6400
Likely to fall to support level 0.6255
NZDUSD recently reversed down from the major resistance level 0.6400 (which has been reversing the price from last February).
The downward reversal from the resistance level 0.6400 stopped the previous impulse waves (iii) and 3.
Given the strength of the resistance level 0.6400 and the overbought daily Stochastic, NZDUSD can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 0.6255, previous monthly high from June.
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#NZDUSD reversed from resistance level 0.6400
Likely to fall to support level 0.6255
NZDUSD recently reversed down from the major resistance level 0.6400 (which has been reversing the price from last February).
The downward reversal from the resistance level 0.6400 stopped the previous impulse waves (iii) and 3.
Given the strength of the resistance level 0.6400 and the overbought daily Stochastic, NZDUSD can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 0.6255, previous monthly high from June.
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Bitcoin risks falling out of range
The crypto market cap fell 0.8% overnight to $1.20 trillion. Bitcoin loses 0.9%, Ethereum - 1.7%, while top altcoins performance varies from -5.8% (Solana) to -0.3% (BNB).
In contrast to the positive performance of stock indices, the first cryptocurrency rolled back below $30k on Monday. Early attempts to raise the price have been unsuccessful, leaving Bitcoin near the lower end of its four-week trading range.
A failure of current support at $29.8K opens the door to a deeper correction at $28.6-28.8K, the 50-day moving average and 61.8% of the rally from the late June lows.
CoinShares said crypto fund investments rose by $137 million last week, the fourth consecutive week of inflows.
Fund inflows over the past four weeks totalled $742 million, the largest inflow since the last quarter of 2021. Trading volume rose to $2.3 billion for the week, well above the annual average of $1.4 billion, CoinShares noted.
The crypto market cap fell 0.8% overnight to $1.20 trillion. Bitcoin loses 0.9%, Ethereum - 1.7%, while top altcoins performance varies from -5.8% (Solana) to -0.3% (BNB).
In contrast to the positive performance of stock indices, the first cryptocurrency rolled back below $30k on Monday. Early attempts to raise the price have been unsuccessful, leaving Bitcoin near the lower end of its four-week trading range.
A failure of current support at $29.8K opens the door to a deeper correction at $28.6-28.8K, the 50-day moving average and 61.8% of the rally from the late June lows.
CoinShares said crypto fund investments rose by $137 million last week, the fourth consecutive week of inflows.
Fund inflows over the past four weeks totalled $742 million, the largest inflow since the last quarter of 2021. Trading volume rose to $2.3 billion for the week, well above the annual average of $1.4 billion, CoinShares noted.
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Another tick in gold's bull-tend checkbox
#Gold returned to monthly highs near $1962 on Tuesday morning after consolidating around the 50-day moving average. All eyes are now on gold's ability to break away from this line, a medium-term trend indicator.
The upward move is well within the pattern forming in the gold market since last September. After forming a solid bottom in September-November the previous year, the price rallied from lows near $1615 to a peak of $2081 in early May.
Within two months, we saw a classic correction with a pullback to 61.8% of the initial move, briefly touching levels below $1900. Gold then reversed to the upside.
Within this long-term pattern, gold could break through the previous highs ($2081) and potentially head towards $2370 (161.8% of the initial move), which could take more than six months.
#Gold returned to monthly highs near $1962 on Tuesday morning after consolidating around the 50-day moving average. All eyes are now on gold's ability to break away from this line, a medium-term trend indicator.
The upward move is well within the pattern forming in the gold market since last September. After forming a solid bottom in September-November the previous year, the price rallied from lows near $1615 to a peak of $2081 in early May.
Within two months, we saw a classic correction with a pullback to 61.8% of the initial move, briefly touching levels below $1900. Gold then reversed to the upside.
Within this long-term pattern, gold could break through the previous highs ($2081) and potentially head towards $2370 (161.8% of the initial move), which could take more than six months.
However, the bears have a good chance of proving their strength and thwarting the upside scenario. The current level delayed gold's decline in the first half of last month and now acts as an obstacle to further gains.
Separately, we are watching the oversold local dollar. Last week, the weakening of the US currency boosted gold's gains, but a corrective recovery in the dollar could break gold's bullish pattern.
A rise in gold above $1970 in the next few days would reduce doubts about the bullish scenario involving a renewal of historical highs. A quick pullback below $1950 and the 50-day moving average would confirm the dominance of a short-term downtrend.
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Separately, we are watching the oversold local dollar. Last week, the weakening of the US currency boosted gold's gains, but a corrective recovery in the dollar could break gold's bullish pattern.
A rise in gold above $1970 in the next few days would reduce doubts about the bullish scenario involving a renewal of historical highs. A quick pullback below $1950 and the 50-day moving average would confirm the dominance of a short-term downtrend.
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US retail sales rose 0.2% in June, weaker than the +0.5% expected. Year-to-date sales are up 1.5% versus 3% inflation over the same period, so it makes sense that consumer activity is slowing.
Sales ex-auto rose by 0.2% (+0.4% expected). This indicator shows stagnation even without considering last June's price correction.
Weak retail sales could excuse the Fed from easing monetary policy. But in recent weeks, FOMC members have bombarded the markets with forecasts of two hikes this year and an extended pause.
Simply put, for the market, this means a willingness to cool the economy despite the warning signs. And that's already a worrying sign for equity indices. It would not be surprising if the latest retail sales data caused equity markets to reassess their optimism about the strength of consumer demand.
Sales ex-auto rose by 0.2% (+0.4% expected). This indicator shows stagnation even without considering last June's price correction.
Weak retail sales could excuse the Fed from easing monetary policy. But in recent weeks, FOMC members have bombarded the markets with forecasts of two hikes this year and an extended pause.
Simply put, for the market, this means a willingness to cool the economy despite the warning signs. And that's already a worrying sign for equity indices. It would not be surprising if the latest retail sales data caused equity markets to reassess their optimism about the strength of consumer demand.
#WaveAnalysis #SPX
S&P 500 broke resistance level 4500.00
Likely to rise to resistance level 4600.00
S&P 500 index under the bullish pressure after the price broke above the key resistance level 4500.00.
The breakout of the resistance level 4500.00 accelerated the active impulse wave iii of the impulse wave 5 of the intermediate impulse sequence C from the start of March.
Given the prevailing uptrend, S&P 500 index can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 4600.00 (target price for the completion of the active impulse wave iii).
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S&P 500 broke resistance level 4500.00
Likely to rise to resistance level 4600.00
S&P 500 index under the bullish pressure after the price broke above the key resistance level 4500.00.
The breakout of the resistance level 4500.00 accelerated the active impulse wave iii of the impulse wave 5 of the intermediate impulse sequence C from the start of March.
Given the prevailing uptrend, S&P 500 index can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 4600.00 (target price for the completion of the active impulse wave iii).
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#WaveAnalysis
#EURCHF reversed from resistance level 0.9675
Likely to fall to support level 0.9600
EURCHF currency pair recently reversed down from the key resistance level 0.9675 (former multi-month support May and June).
The downward reversal from the resistance level 0.9675 stopped the previous minor correction (ii) forming the daily Evening Star.
Given the prevailing downtrend, EURCHF can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 0.9600 (low of the previous minor impulse wave iii).
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#EURCHF reversed from resistance level 0.9675
Likely to fall to support level 0.9600
EURCHF currency pair recently reversed down from the key resistance level 0.9675 (former multi-month support May and June).
The downward reversal from the resistance level 0.9675 stopped the previous minor correction (ii) forming the daily Evening Star.
Given the prevailing downtrend, EURCHF can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 0.9600 (low of the previous minor impulse wave iii).
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#WaveAnalysis
#CADCHF reversed from support level 0.6495
Likely to rise to resistance level 0.6600
CADCHF currency pair recently reversed up from the powerful support level 0.6495 (previous monthly low from April and May) intersecting with the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from the support level 0.6495 stopped the previous impulse wave C of the intermediate ABC correction (B) from last month.
Given the strength of the support level 0.6495, CADCHF can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 0.6600.
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#CADCHF reversed from support level 0.6495
Likely to rise to resistance level 0.6600
CADCHF currency pair recently reversed up from the powerful support level 0.6495 (previous monthly low from April and May) intersecting with the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from the support level 0.6495 stopped the previous impulse wave C of the intermediate ABC correction (B) from last month.
Given the strength of the support level 0.6495, CADCHF can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 0.6600.
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#WaveAnalysis
#USDJPY reversed from support level 137.50
Likely to rise to resistance level 140.70
USDJPY currency pair previously reversed up from the key support level 137.50, former monthly high from March and May, strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band and by the support trendline of the daily up channel from February.
The upward reversal from the support level 137.50 started the active short-term correction 2.
Given the active mid-term uptrend, USDJPY currency pair can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 140.70.
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#USDJPY reversed from support level 137.50
Likely to rise to resistance level 140.70
USDJPY currency pair previously reversed up from the key support level 137.50, former monthly high from March and May, strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band and by the support trendline of the daily up channel from February.
The upward reversal from the support level 137.50 started the active short-term correction 2.
Given the active mid-term uptrend, USDJPY currency pair can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 140.70.
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#WaveAnalysis
#GBPNZD reversed from key resistance level 2.0855
Likely to fall to support level 2.0500
GBPNZD currency pair recently reversed down from the key resistance level 2.0855, intersecting with the upper daily Bollinger Band.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 2.0855 stopped the intermediate impulse wave (3) from the middle of this month.
Given the strength of the resistance level 2.0855, GBPNZD currency pair can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 2.0500 (low of the previous corrections 4 and (2)).
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#GBPNZD reversed from key resistance level 2.0855
Likely to fall to support level 2.0500
GBPNZD currency pair recently reversed down from the key resistance level 2.0855, intersecting with the upper daily Bollinger Band.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 2.0855 stopped the intermediate impulse wave (3) from the middle of this month.
Given the strength of the resistance level 2.0855, GBPNZD currency pair can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 2.0500 (low of the previous corrections 4 and (2)).
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The crypto market cap reached 1.218 trillion, up 1.1% in the last 24 hours. Altcoins are growing across the board. Although the momentum is far from euphoric, it is more like interest in the market. And this is particularly attractive as equity indices have lost ground over the past 24 hours.
The big question in the short term is whether we're seeing a reallocation of interest towards the riskier part (crypto vs stocks) or a delayed reaction (Nasdaq hit highs since January 2022 on Wednesday).
#Bitcoin continued to find support on Wednesday on dips below $30K, returning to the range of the last four weeks. A move to the upper boundary at $31.3K is most likely in this environment. At the same time, medium-term traders should pay more attention to the price dynamics at the boundaries of the range between $29.8 and $31.3 an ounce. A break above these boundaries will greatly increase the chances of a continuation in the breakout direction.
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The big question in the short term is whether we're seeing a reallocation of interest towards the riskier part (crypto vs stocks) or a delayed reaction (Nasdaq hit highs since January 2022 on Wednesday).
#Bitcoin continued to find support on Wednesday on dips below $30K, returning to the range of the last four weeks. A move to the upper boundary at $31.3K is most likely in this environment. At the same time, medium-term traders should pay more attention to the price dynamics at the boundaries of the range between $29.8 and $31.3 an ounce. A break above these boundaries will greatly increase the chances of a continuation in the breakout direction.
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#WaveAnalysis
Exxon (#XOM) reversed from support level 100.00
Likely to rise to resistance level 108.00
Exxon earlier reversed up from the round support level 100.00, intersecting with the lower daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from July.
The upward reversal from the support level 100.00 stopped the previous minor ABC correction 2 from the end of April.
Given the strength of the support level 100.00, Exxon can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 108.00, which has been repeatedly reversing the price from May.
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Exxon (#XOM) reversed from support level 100.00
Likely to rise to resistance level 108.00
Exxon earlier reversed up from the round support level 100.00, intersecting with the lower daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from July.
The upward reversal from the support level 100.00 stopped the previous minor ABC correction 2 from the end of April.
Given the strength of the support level 100.00, Exxon can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 108.00, which has been repeatedly reversing the price from May.
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#WaveAnalysis
#GBPCHF reversed from support level 1.1065
Likely to rise to resistance level 1.1250
GBPCHF currency pair previously reversed up from the major support level 1.1065, lower boundary of the sideways price range from November, strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from the support level 1.1065 stopped the previous impulse waves iii and 3.
Given the strength of the support level 1.1065 and the oversold daily Stochastic, GBPCHF currency pair can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 1.1250.
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#GBPCHF reversed from support level 1.1065
Likely to rise to resistance level 1.1250
GBPCHF currency pair previously reversed up from the major support level 1.1065, lower boundary of the sideways price range from November, strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from the support level 1.1065 stopped the previous impulse waves iii and 3.
Given the strength of the support level 1.1065 and the oversold daily Stochastic, GBPCHF currency pair can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 1.1250.
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#WaveAnalysis #NatGas
Natural gas rising inside sideways price range
Likely to rise to resistance level 2.915
Natural gas continues to rise inside the narrow extended sideways price range from the start of this year (enclosed by the price levels 2.224 and 2.915).
The price earlier reversed up from the support level 2.500 continuing the active impulse waves iii and 1.
Given approaching end of summer and the strength of the lower boundary of this price range, 2.224, Natural gas can be expected to soon test the upper border of this price range, 2.915.
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Natural gas rising inside sideways price range
Likely to rise to resistance level 2.915
Natural gas continues to rise inside the narrow extended sideways price range from the start of this year (enclosed by the price levels 2.224 and 2.915).
The price earlier reversed up from the support level 2.500 continuing the active impulse waves iii and 1.
Given approaching end of summer and the strength of the lower boundary of this price range, 2.224, Natural gas can be expected to soon test the upper border of this price range, 2.915.
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The cryptocurrency market fell 0.3% over the past 24 hours to $1.2 trillion. Bitcoin lost 0.7%, Ethereum lost 0.97%, and top altcoins ranged from -3.4% (#Solana) to +4.8% (#Polkadot).
#Bitcoin failed to develop any local upward momentum and continues to test the lower boundary of its last trading range. Following the sell-off in risk assets and the rise in the dollar, the first cryptocurrency has returned to below $30,000. A failure below opens the door to a deeper correction to $28.9K, where the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 50-day MA are concentrated.
#Ethereum has retreated to $1890, the centre of gravity for the past four months. Short-term traders should pay close attention to the momentum near the 50-day average (currently at $1850), as a break below this level could quickly take another $100 off the price.
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#Bitcoin failed to develop any local upward momentum and continues to test the lower boundary of its last trading range. Following the sell-off in risk assets and the rise in the dollar, the first cryptocurrency has returned to below $30,000. A failure below opens the door to a deeper correction to $28.9K, where the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 50-day MA are concentrated.
#Ethereum has retreated to $1890, the centre of gravity for the past four months. Short-term traders should pay close attention to the momentum near the 50-day average (currently at $1850), as a break below this level could quickly take another $100 off the price.
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