#WTI and #Brent’s prices have repeatedly tested their horizontal support levels over the past three months. However, each time the rebounds have been less pronounced. With a few exceptions, the oil's movements have been in a downtrend since last July, the upper boundary of which again held last week. This long-term resistance and horizontal support are rapidly approaching each other, promising a final decision on oil's direction soon.
The downward movement of high and rising interest rates and declining economic indicators is advantageous in this battle. However, it is worth waiting for technical confirmation in the form of a break below $72 for Brent and $67 for WTI.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
The downward movement of high and rising interest rates and declining economic indicators is advantageous in this battle. However, it is worth waiting for technical confirmation in the form of a break below $72 for Brent and $67 for WTI.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
👍1
Anonymous Poll
72%
📈 Bullish
28%
📉 Bearish
#WaveAnalysis
#WTI crude oil reversed from key support level 68.00
Likely to rise to resistance level 72.80
WTI crude oil recently reversed up from the key support level 68.00 (which has been reversing the price from the start of May) , coinciding with the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from the support level 68.00 created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Hammer.
Given the strength of the support level 68.00, WTI crude oil can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 72.80 (top of the previous correction 2).
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
#WTI crude oil reversed from key support level 68.00
Likely to rise to resistance level 72.80
WTI crude oil recently reversed up from the key support level 68.00 (which has been reversing the price from the start of May) , coinciding with the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from the support level 68.00 created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Hammer.
Given the strength of the support level 68.00, WTI crude oil can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 72.80 (top of the previous correction 2).
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
👍2
#WaveAnalysis
#AUDCAD broke key support level 0.8800
Likely to fall to support level 0.8700
AUDCAD under the bearish pressure after the price broke the key support level 0.8800 (which stopped the previous sharp downward impulse wave (1) at the end of May).
The breakout of the support level 0.8800 should accelerate the active intermediate impulse wave (3).
Given the clear multi-month downtrend, AUDCAD can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 0.8700.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
#AUDCAD broke key support level 0.8800
Likely to fall to support level 0.8700
AUDCAD under the bearish pressure after the price broke the key support level 0.8800 (which stopped the previous sharp downward impulse wave (1) at the end of May).
The breakout of the support level 0.8800 should accelerate the active intermediate impulse wave (3).
Given the clear multi-month downtrend, AUDCAD can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 0.8700.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
The crypto market cap is down 0.75% over the last 24 hours to $1.178 trillion in what looks like cautious profit-taking after rallying from mid-month under pressure from stock index movements.
Bitcoin found support below $30,000 on Monday afternoon and has posted modest gains (+0.75%) since the start of Tuesday. Technically, the last pullbacks were to the 76.4% level of the rally of 15-23 June. Such quick and shallow corrections are not uncommon in solid bull markets. But given the pullback in equity indices and the fundamental headwinds (high Fed rates, ample Treasury supply), it is worth bracing for a correction to at least $28.9K and then looking at the asset dynamics to see if the crypto market looks attractive.
According to CoinShares, crypto fund investments rose by $199 million last week, the most since July 2022; the inflows offset almost half of the outflows over the previous nine weeks. Investments in Bitcoin rose by $188 million and Ethereum by $8 million.
Bitcoin found support below $30,000 on Monday afternoon and has posted modest gains (+0.75%) since the start of Tuesday. Technically, the last pullbacks were to the 76.4% level of the rally of 15-23 June. Such quick and shallow corrections are not uncommon in solid bull markets. But given the pullback in equity indices and the fundamental headwinds (high Fed rates, ample Treasury supply), it is worth bracing for a correction to at least $28.9K and then looking at the asset dynamics to see if the crypto market looks attractive.
According to CoinShares, crypto fund investments rose by $199 million last week, the most since July 2022; the inflows offset almost half of the outflows over the previous nine weeks. Investments in Bitcoin rose by $188 million and Ethereum by $8 million.
#Silver's Golden Cross points to bright prospects
Silver fell sharply last week but has recently shown encouraging signs of recovery. The tactical objectives of silver's decline appear to have been achieved, and silver is now in demand, reinforcing confidence that the bulls have defended the long-term uptrend.
Last week, silver lost over 8.5% from Monday's high to Friday's low. This appeared to be the final chord of the sellers, followed by a tidy comeback by the buyers on Friday afternoon. Notably, this uptrend is going against the downtrends in other risk-sensitive markets.
Silver fell sharply last week but has recently shown encouraging signs of recovery. The tactical objectives of silver's decline appear to have been achieved, and silver is now in demand, reinforcing confidence that the bulls have defended the long-term uptrend.
Last week, silver lost over 8.5% from Monday's high to Friday's low. This appeared to be the final chord of the sellers, followed by a tidy comeback by the buyers on Friday afternoon. Notably, this uptrend is going against the downtrends in other risk-sensitive markets.
On the weekly timeframe, last week's low was a touch of the 200-week moving average (now at $22.17), reflecting traders' bullish sentiment. Slightly lower, at $22, is the faster 50-week MA. Both are pointing up, indicating a bullish market and the faster one is about to cross the slower one. Such a pattern in technical analysis is called a Golden Cross. It is often seen on the daily timeframe, but very rarely, and therefore can be even more significant on the weekly timeframe.
The closest analogy, in terms of price action and these key averages and fundamentals, was seen in 2009, which preceded the 200%+ rally of the following two years. However, it did not occur immediately after the cross.
The May-June decline also looks like a test of the lower boundary of the upward corridor formed last August. The upper limit is now at $26.6 and will rise to $29 by the end of the year.
The closest analogy, in terms of price action and these key averages and fundamentals, was seen in 2009, which preceded the 200%+ rally of the following two years. However, it did not occur immediately after the cross.
The May-June decline also looks like a test of the lower boundary of the upward corridor formed last August. The upper limit is now at $26.6 and will rise to $29 by the end of the year.
👍1
On the daily timeframe, the local picture is bullish. Silver quickly managed to get back above its 200-day MA, and with the price touching $23.0 on Tuesday morning, the question arises as to whether the recent rally is a bounce as part of a broader decline.
Separately, on the same daily timeframe, we note the divergence between the RSI and the silver price: lower price lows in June correspond to higher index lows. This suggests that the downward momentum is waning. The RSI has not even reached an oversold level for the second time.
If our view on silver is correct, we should see a return to the flat 24s and above and a repeat of the local highs at $26 before the end of the summer.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
Separately, on the same daily timeframe, we note the divergence between the RSI and the silver price: lower price lows in June correspond to higher index lows. This suggests that the downward momentum is waning. The RSI has not even reached an oversold level for the second time.
If our view on silver is correct, we should see a return to the flat 24s and above and a repeat of the local highs at $26 before the end of the summer.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
Yen hopes for FX intervention
The Yen has been under pressure, losing 3.5% against the Dollar and over 5.6% against the Euro since the beginning of the month. The EURJPY has risen to its highest level since September 2008. The USDJPY is trading above 143.50, where the intervention took it in October and November last year, and close to the 1998 turning point.
The yen's sharp weakness and proximity to historical highs have traders pricing in the likelihood that the central bank will intervene at the behest of the Ministry of Finance to strengthen the exchange rate. However, the nominal exchange rate means little to the government and the central bank, so the focus is on economic indicators.
The most important of these is the Bank of Japan's core CPI. Here we see an acceleration to 3.1% y/y from 3.0% the previous month and a low of 2.7% in February. Although the rate of price increases in Japan is significantly lower than in the US and Europe, there are no signs of a peak.
The Yen has been under pressure, losing 3.5% against the Dollar and over 5.6% against the Euro since the beginning of the month. The EURJPY has risen to its highest level since September 2008. The USDJPY is trading above 143.50, where the intervention took it in October and November last year, and close to the 1998 turning point.
The yen's sharp weakness and proximity to historical highs have traders pricing in the likelihood that the central bank will intervene at the behest of the Ministry of Finance to strengthen the exchange rate. However, the nominal exchange rate means little to the government and the central bank, so the focus is on economic indicators.
The most important of these is the Bank of Japan's core CPI. Here we see an acceleration to 3.1% y/y from 3.0% the previous month and a low of 2.7% in February. Although the rate of price increases in Japan is significantly lower than in the US and Europe, there are no signs of a peak.
For the economy, this means that inflation expectations are becoming more firmly anchored. On the one hand, higher inflation is in line with central bank targets of previous decades. Hence the relative apathy of the BoJ, which has yet to take the slightest step to tighten policy in the fight against rising prices.
There is a belief that exchange rate depreciation improves export competitiveness. However, this rule only really applies when it is certain that the exchange rate will stay the same.
Therefore, the case for intervention to support the yen is growing, but it isn’t easy to foresee when it will occur. It could be the current USDJPY level of 143, where the pair has been stuck for a third day, or the 150 area, where the USD climbed in October 2022.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
There is a belief that exchange rate depreciation improves export competitiveness. However, this rule only really applies when it is certain that the exchange rate will stay the same.
Therefore, the case for intervention to support the yen is growing, but it isn’t easy to foresee when it will occur. It could be the current USDJPY level of 143, where the pair has been stuck for a third day, or the 150 area, where the USD climbed in October 2022.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
👍2👏1
#WaveAnalysis #SPX
S&P 500 reversed from support level 4330.0
Likely to rise to resistance level 4450.00
S&P 500 index recently reversed up from the key support level 4330.0 (former multi-month high from August of 2022, acting as the support after it was broken at the start of June) standing near the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impose from May.
The upward reversal from the support level 4330.00 stopped the previous short-term corrective wave 4.
Given the prevailing uptrend, S&P 500 index can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 4450.00 (top of the previous impulse wave 3).
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
S&P 500 reversed from support level 4330.0
Likely to rise to resistance level 4450.00
S&P 500 index recently reversed up from the key support level 4330.0 (former multi-month high from August of 2022, acting as the support after it was broken at the start of June) standing near the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impose from May.
The upward reversal from the support level 4330.00 stopped the previous short-term corrective wave 4.
Given the prevailing uptrend, S&P 500 index can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 4450.00 (top of the previous impulse wave 3).
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
#WaveAnalysis
#EURJPY under bullish pressure
Likely to rise to resistance level 160.00
EURJPY under the bullish pressure after the price broke the resistance level 151.50 (which stopped the previous weekly impulse wave 3 in April).
The breakout of the resistance level 151.50 coincided with the breakout of the weekly up channel from 2020, which accelerated the active intermediate impulse wave (3).
Given the clear weekly uptrend, EURJPY can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 160.00, forecast price for the completion of the active impulse wave (3).
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
#EURJPY under bullish pressure
Likely to rise to resistance level 160.00
EURJPY under the bullish pressure after the price broke the resistance level 151.50 (which stopped the previous weekly impulse wave 3 in April).
The breakout of the resistance level 151.50 coincided with the breakout of the weekly up channel from 2020, which accelerated the active intermediate impulse wave (3).
Given the clear weekly uptrend, EURJPY can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 160.00, forecast price for the completion of the active impulse wave (3).
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
The crypto market cap fell 0.2% over the past 24 hours but remaining within the range of $1.16-1.20 trillion since last Thursday. The market remains in a "Greed" mood, according to the Fear and Greed Index.
#Bitcoin has been squeezed in the $30.0-30.8K range, above a similar consolidation in April, and has settled into an overall uptrend. The shorter-term picture, however, suggests potential correction exists, with short-term targets in the $29.8K area (76.4% of the rally since mid-June), but a pullback to $28.9K (61.8%) is more likely. This should not put the bullish trend in question but will fuel further buying.
#Ethereum is trading in a corridor with a slight bearish bias, correcting 4% from its 22 June high to $1860. The development of a corrective pullback here sets the stage for a decline to the $1800-1810 area. A critical round level and the 61.8% line from the last rally to the 50-day moving average are concentrated here.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
#Bitcoin has been squeezed in the $30.0-30.8K range, above a similar consolidation in April, and has settled into an overall uptrend. The shorter-term picture, however, suggests potential correction exists, with short-term targets in the $29.8K area (76.4% of the rally since mid-June), but a pullback to $28.9K (61.8%) is more likely. This should not put the bullish trend in question but will fuel further buying.
#Ethereum is trading in a corridor with a slight bearish bias, correcting 4% from its 22 June high to $1860. The development of a corrective pullback here sets the stage for a decline to the $1800-1810 area. A critical round level and the 61.8% line from the last rally to the 50-day moving average are concentrated here.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
US indices rose impressively on Tuesday, with the S&P500 up 1.1%, the Nasdaq100 up 1.75% and the Dow Jones 30 up 0.63%. Meanwhile, the VIX volatility index fell back below 14, and Bitcoin gained over 1.4%, at one point wiping out the losses of the previous three sessions. This pattern of market gains points to an improvement in risk appetite, but the rise raises questions.
Tuesday's positive market performance and much of the rally in equities run counter to interest rate expectations. The FedWatch tool now shows a 75% probability that the Fed funds rate will be higher than the current rate at the end of the year, although, since mid-March, the chances of this happening in the next two months have been estimated at zero. Higher interest rates are a severe headwind for the equity market as they make risk-free investments more profitable.
As a result, there has been a startling divergence between the expectations of smart money (debt markets) and the sentiment of equity market participants.
Tuesday's positive market performance and much of the rally in equities run counter to interest rate expectations. The FedWatch tool now shows a 75% probability that the Fed funds rate will be higher than the current rate at the end of the year, although, since mid-March, the chances of this happening in the next two months have been estimated at zero. Higher interest rates are a severe headwind for the equity market as they make risk-free investments more profitable.
As a result, there has been a startling divergence between the expectations of smart money (debt markets) and the sentiment of equity market participants.
The equity market is an optimists' place, and a justification for buying in recent months has been a mix of factors, from the AI hype to the exhalation that there have been no new bank failures and the "most anticipated recession" has not arrived.
At the same time, positive surprises are working in favour of a tightening of the Fed's rhetoric, which is setting up the possibility of two more hikes before the end of the year, even though the previous hikes are far from having had their full effect on the economy.
The situation is reminiscent of what it was after the "monetary and fiscal frenzy" of the coronavirus days. After all, the initial consensus was that the trillions pumped in would not cause inflation or would do so, but only temporarily. It was not until 2022 that it became clear that inflation would require the most vigorous fight against it in 40 years.
At the same time, positive surprises are working in favour of a tightening of the Fed's rhetoric, which is setting up the possibility of two more hikes before the end of the year, even though the previous hikes are far from having had their full effect on the economy.
The situation is reminiscent of what it was after the "monetary and fiscal frenzy" of the coronavirus days. After all, the initial consensus was that the trillions pumped in would not cause inflation or would do so, but only temporarily. It was not until 2022 that it became clear that inflation would require the most vigorous fight against it in 40 years.
❤1
If we are correct, then the inertia of monetary policy will have a significant negative impact on equity markets, which are struggling to cope with the level of interest rates, the abundant supply at US Treasury auctions and the increasingly complex conditions for debt refinancing. Frankly, Fed rate hikes are attempts to cool the economy, i.e., reduce demand, which harms corporate earnings.
The technical picture also points to a decline, at least in the short term. The Nasdaq 100 has made a local peak just above 15,200, which also reversed in March last year and August 2021. On the daily timeframe, the RSI has retreated from the overbought territory that, signals the start of a correction.
And it is close to a similar signal in the weekly timeframe. A full correction here could take the Nasdaq100 towards 12100-12500 before the end of the year, leaving the long-term uptrend intact and staying above the 200-week moving average but erasing the excessive optimism.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
The technical picture also points to a decline, at least in the short term. The Nasdaq 100 has made a local peak just above 15,200, which also reversed in March last year and August 2021. On the daily timeframe, the RSI has retreated from the overbought territory that, signals the start of a correction.
And it is close to a similar signal in the weekly timeframe. A full correction here could take the Nasdaq100 towards 12100-12500 before the end of the year, leaving the long-term uptrend intact and staying above the 200-week moving average but erasing the excessive optimism.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
#WaveAnalysis
#AUDJPY reversed from support level 95.40
Likely to rise to resistance level 97.65
AUDJPY currency pair recently reversed up from the key support level 95.40 (former strong resistance from last October), intersecting with the 20-day moving average.
The upward reversal from the support level 95.40 stopped the previous ABC correction (4) with the daily Piercing Line.
Given the clear daily uptrend, AUDJPY can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 97.65 (top of the pervious impulse wave (3)).
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
#AUDJPY reversed from support level 95.40
Likely to rise to resistance level 97.65
AUDJPY currency pair recently reversed up from the key support level 95.40 (former strong resistance from last October), intersecting with the 20-day moving average.
The upward reversal from the support level 95.40 stopped the previous ABC correction (4) with the daily Piercing Line.
Given the clear daily uptrend, AUDJPY can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 97.65 (top of the pervious impulse wave (3)).
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
👍3
#Bitcoin closed last week with almost zero performance, failing to move meaningfully away from the $30K level. It is stomping around $30.6K on Monday. #Ethereum has added 4.3% in seven days, to $1960. Other leading altcoins from the top 10 are adding between 0.5% (#XRP) and 25% (#Solana).
The total capitalisation of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, rose 2.5% to $1.207 trillion for the week.
On the tech analysis side, Bitcoin has been consolidating in a sideways range for the past ten days, cooling off after jumping 5k up from local lows in June. Only a consolidation outside the $30-31K range would signal that the market has decided on a medium-term direction for a breakout. The long-term trend has been bullish since last November, within which severe drawdowns sometimes occur.
In terms of seasonality, July is considered quite successful for BTC. Over the past 12 years, bitcoin has ended the month up eight times and down four times. The average rise was 22.3%, and the average decline was 8.8%.
The total capitalisation of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, rose 2.5% to $1.207 trillion for the week.
On the tech analysis side, Bitcoin has been consolidating in a sideways range for the past ten days, cooling off after jumping 5k up from local lows in June. Only a consolidation outside the $30-31K range would signal that the market has decided on a medium-term direction for a breakout. The long-term trend has been bullish since last November, within which severe drawdowns sometimes occur.
In terms of seasonality, July is considered quite successful for BTC. Over the past 12 years, bitcoin has ended the month up eight times and down four times. The average rise was 22.3%, and the average decline was 8.8%.
#WaveAnalysis
#NZDCAD reversed from strong support level 0.8065
Likely to rise to resistance level 0.8230
NZDCAD currency pair recently reversed up with the daily Morning Star from the strong support level 0.8065 (low of the previous impulse wave 3) intersecting with the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from the support level 0.8065 started the (b)-wave of the active ABC correction (B) from the end of June.
Given the strength of the support level 0.8065, NZDCAD can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 0.8230 (target price for the completion of the active wave (b)).
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
#NZDCAD reversed from strong support level 0.8065
Likely to rise to resistance level 0.8230
NZDCAD currency pair recently reversed up with the daily Morning Star from the strong support level 0.8065 (low of the previous impulse wave 3) intersecting with the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from the support level 0.8065 started the (b)-wave of the active ABC correction (B) from the end of June.
Given the strength of the support level 0.8065, NZDCAD can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 0.8230 (target price for the completion of the active wave (b)).
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com