#WaveAnalysis
#CADJPY broke resistance level 107.60
Likely to rise to resistance level 110.
CADJPY under the bullish pressure after the earlier breakout of the resistance level 107.60, which stopped the previous minor impulse wave (i) earlier this month.
The breakout of the resistance level 107.60 accelerated the active short-term impulse wave 5 pf the intermediate impulse sequence (C) from the start of May.
Given the prevailing daily uptrend , CADJPY can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 110.00 (target for the completion of the active impulse sequence (C).
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#CADJPY broke resistance level 107.60
Likely to rise to resistance level 110.
CADJPY under the bullish pressure after the earlier breakout of the resistance level 107.60, which stopped the previous minor impulse wave (i) earlier this month.
The breakout of the resistance level 107.60 accelerated the active short-term impulse wave 5 pf the intermediate impulse sequence (C) from the start of May.
Given the prevailing daily uptrend , CADJPY can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 110.00 (target for the completion of the active impulse sequence (C).
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Crypto market cap has adjusted 0.65% in the past 24 hours to 1.17 trillion, remaining near the highs since early May. The correction is primarily due to a 0.55% dollar strengthening over the same period. The current dynamic is still a halt after a 16% rally but not a correction.
#Bitcoin is frozen at $30K, a significant technical level. These levels were pivotal for the first cryptocurrency in April, and last May, it took more than a month for the bears to sell the rate lower. Also, a furious part of the crypto rally started from this level in early 2021. It's worth being prepared for quite a long consolidation, but this week's bullish breakout suggests that long-term investors have already moved to accumulate Bitcoin on drawdowns.
#Ethereum's dynamics are settling into a general uptrend channel with buying on downturns, roughly repeating the dynamics we've seen for 2019 and 2020. It could take months before a FOMO rally.
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#Bitcoin is frozen at $30K, a significant technical level. These levels were pivotal for the first cryptocurrency in April, and last May, it took more than a month for the bears to sell the rate lower. Also, a furious part of the crypto rally started from this level in early 2021. It's worth being prepared for quite a long consolidation, but this week's bullish breakout suggests that long-term investors have already moved to accumulate Bitcoin on drawdowns.
#Ethereum's dynamics are settling into a general uptrend channel with buying on downturns, roughly repeating the dynamics we've seen for 2019 and 2020. It could take months before a FOMO rally.
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The Euro suffered a setback after the June PMIs revealed a slowdown in economic activity. Analysts were caught off guard by the contraction in French services, which dropped from 52.5 to 48.0 - far below the forecast of 52.2. Manufacturing also disappointed, staying below 50 for the tenth time in twelve months.
Germany followed with a grim report, showing a sharp decline in both manufacturing and services. The manufacturing PMI plunged from 43.2 to 41.0 (43.6 expected), and the services PMI slipped from 57.2 to 54.1 (56.3 expected).
These poor results weighed on the euro zone’s overall performance, where the composite business activity index fell to 50.3, its lowest level since January. The manufacturing PMI came in at 43.6, signalling a severe contraction in the region’s economy soon. Apart from the Covid dip, it has only been lower between October 2008 and May 2009, when the economy shrank by more than 5%. Although the current situation is not as dire, fears are mounting.
Germany followed with a grim report, showing a sharp decline in both manufacturing and services. The manufacturing PMI plunged from 43.2 to 41.0 (43.6 expected), and the services PMI slipped from 57.2 to 54.1 (56.3 expected).
These poor results weighed on the euro zone’s overall performance, where the composite business activity index fell to 50.3, its lowest level since January. The manufacturing PMI came in at 43.6, signalling a severe contraction in the region’s economy soon. Apart from the Covid dip, it has only been lower between October 2008 and May 2009, when the economy shrank by more than 5%. Although the current situation is not as dire, fears are mounting.
The #EURUSD lost around 1.5% in less than a day after touching 1.10 in the middle of the European session on Thursday. It accelerated as it broke below 1.0920 on Friday morning following the release of the Eurozone PMI estimates.
Intraday, the EURUSD is hovering around its 50-day moving average. If it can hold above this level in the coming days, it could attract active buyers and further push the pair to test previous highs above 1.1070. However, weak macroeconomic data and dwindling risk appetite in global markets increase the odds of a downward move, at least to the lower border of the rising channel at 1.0700 or further to the previous local lows at 1.0550.
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Intraday, the EURUSD is hovering around its 50-day moving average. If it can hold above this level in the coming days, it could attract active buyers and further push the pair to test previous highs above 1.1070. However, weak macroeconomic data and dwindling risk appetite in global markets increase the odds of a downward move, at least to the lower border of the rising channel at 1.0700 or further to the previous local lows at 1.0550.
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#WaveAnalysis
#USDJPY broke resistance level 142.00
– Likely to rise to resistance level 145.00
USDJPY recently broke above the resistance level 142.00, former top of the minor correction (4) from last November.
The breakout of the resistance level 142.00 coincided with the breakout of the wide daily up channel from January – which accelerated active short-term impulse wave 3.
Given the strong daily uptrend, USDJPY can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 145.00 (forecast price for the completion of the active impulse 3).
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#USDJPY broke resistance level 142.00
– Likely to rise to resistance level 145.00
USDJPY recently broke above the resistance level 142.00, former top of the minor correction (4) from last November.
The breakout of the resistance level 142.00 coincided with the breakout of the wide daily up channel from January – which accelerated active short-term impulse wave 3.
Given the strong daily uptrend, USDJPY can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 145.00 (forecast price for the completion of the active impulse 3).
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#WaveAnalysis
#AUDNZD under bearish pressure
– Likely to fall to support level 1.0800
AUDNZD currency pair under the bearish pressure after the pair broke the support level 1.090 , low of the Bullish Engulfing from the start of this month, former monthly high from April.
The breakout of the support level 1.090 accelerated active short-term corrective wave 2.
Given the strongly bearish AUD sentiment, AUDNZD can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 1.0800 (50% Fibonacci correction of the previous impulse wave 1).
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#AUDNZD under bearish pressure
– Likely to fall to support level 1.0800
AUDNZD currency pair under the bearish pressure after the pair broke the support level 1.090 , low of the Bullish Engulfing from the start of this month, former monthly high from April.
The breakout of the support level 1.090 accelerated active short-term corrective wave 2.
Given the strongly bearish AUD sentiment, AUDNZD can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 1.0800 (50% Fibonacci correction of the previous impulse wave 1).
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#WaveAnalysis #AMZN
Amazon broke resistance level 127.30
Likely to rise to resistance level 135.00
Amazon continues to rise steadily after the price broke above the key resistance level 127.30, which has been reversing the price from the start of this month.
The breakout of the resistance level 127.30 accelerated active short-term impulse wave (iii) – which belongs to the higher order impulse waves 5 and (C).
Given the clear daily uptrend, Amazon can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 135.00 (target for the completion of the active impulse wave (iii)).
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Amazon broke resistance level 127.30
Likely to rise to resistance level 135.00
Amazon continues to rise steadily after the price broke above the key resistance level 127.30, which has been reversing the price from the start of this month.
The breakout of the resistance level 127.30 accelerated active short-term impulse wave (iii) – which belongs to the higher order impulse waves 5 and (C).
Given the clear daily uptrend, Amazon can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 135.00 (target for the completion of the active impulse wave (iii)).
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#Bitcoin renewed its early June highs near $31.4K on Friday, but the recent momentum dissipated, bringing the price back to $30.3K. The BTC rally is often attributed to hopes of launching spot bitcoin ETFs, which ease access of institutional capital to the flagship cryptocurrency.
Besides, the technical factors have also supported the crypto's recent march to the North. BTCUSD broke through the 50-day moving average resistance and consolidated above the upper boundary of the descending channel. A bounce off the 200-week MA was an even more critical bullish signal.
Strictly speaking, we saw a bounce and a rapid rise from the lower boundary of the longer-term bullish corridor formed by the November 2022 and March 2023 lows. In the short term, bitcoin will need to cool off after the march, but overall, it has a much better chance of touching the upper boundary at $34.5K within a month than the lower boundary at $26.1K. Despite the bullish outlook, the market needs to cool down in the coming days.
Besides, the technical factors have also supported the crypto's recent march to the North. BTCUSD broke through the 50-day moving average resistance and consolidated above the upper boundary of the descending channel. A bounce off the 200-week MA was an even more critical bullish signal.
Strictly speaking, we saw a bounce and a rapid rise from the lower boundary of the longer-term bullish corridor formed by the November 2022 and March 2023 lows. In the short term, bitcoin will need to cool off after the march, but overall, it has a much better chance of touching the upper boundary at $34.5K within a month than the lower boundary at $26.1K. Despite the bullish outlook, the market needs to cool down in the coming days.
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Oil’s reduced sensitivity to geopolitics
Events in Russia at the end of last week have once again set the stage for a price rebound from the lower end of the range seen in recent months. However, deteriorating global macroeconomic conditions leave us guessing as to 'when not if' we will see a break of support and a move lower.
WTI crude fell to $67.5 on Friday, and Brent briefly traded below $72.5. Previously, oil was actively involved in OPEC+ efforts to cut production (actual or planned) from these levels. This time, the rebound came from reports from Russia.
Data released in the second half of last week noted a reduction in supply, while producers were apathetic. Commercial reserves fell by 3.8mmbd, strategic reserves lost 1.7mmbd, but production averaged 12.2mmbd after a build rate of 12.4mmbd in the previous two weeks.
Events in Russia at the end of last week have once again set the stage for a price rebound from the lower end of the range seen in recent months. However, deteriorating global macroeconomic conditions leave us guessing as to 'when not if' we will see a break of support and a move lower.
WTI crude fell to $67.5 on Friday, and Brent briefly traded below $72.5. Previously, oil was actively involved in OPEC+ efforts to cut production (actual or planned) from these levels. This time, the rebound came from reports from Russia.
Data released in the second half of last week noted a reduction in supply, while producers were apathetic. Commercial reserves fell by 3.8mmbd, strategic reserves lost 1.7mmbd, but production averaged 12.2mmbd after a build rate of 12.4mmbd in the previous two weeks.
Friday's Baker Hughes data highlighted the ongoing trend in drilling activity as the number of active rigs in the US fell by 5 to 682, of which 546 were producing rigs (-6 for the week). This dynamic clearly indicates the lack of appetite for upstream investment at current prices. Theoretically, it looks like a harbinger of falling production and, consequently, higher prices. In practice, however, preparing for a production surge against the highest interest rates since 2007 is hardly prudent.
#WTI and #Brent’s prices have repeatedly tested their horizontal support levels over the past three months. However, each time the rebounds have been less pronounced. With a few exceptions, the oil's movements have been in a downtrend since last July, the upper boundary of which again held last week. This long-term resistance and horizontal support are rapidly approaching each other, promising a final decision on oil's direction soon.
The downward movement of high and rising interest rates and declining economic indicators is advantageous in this battle. However, it is worth waiting for technical confirmation in the form of a break below $72 for Brent and $67 for WTI.
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The downward movement of high and rising interest rates and declining economic indicators is advantageous in this battle. However, it is worth waiting for technical confirmation in the form of a break below $72 for Brent and $67 for WTI.
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Anonymous Poll
72%
📈 Bullish
28%
📉 Bearish
#WaveAnalysis
#WTI crude oil reversed from key support level 68.00
Likely to rise to resistance level 72.80
WTI crude oil recently reversed up from the key support level 68.00 (which has been reversing the price from the start of May) , coinciding with the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from the support level 68.00 created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Hammer.
Given the strength of the support level 68.00, WTI crude oil can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 72.80 (top of the previous correction 2).
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#WTI crude oil reversed from key support level 68.00
Likely to rise to resistance level 72.80
WTI crude oil recently reversed up from the key support level 68.00 (which has been reversing the price from the start of May) , coinciding with the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from the support level 68.00 created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Hammer.
Given the strength of the support level 68.00, WTI crude oil can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 72.80 (top of the previous correction 2).
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#WaveAnalysis
#AUDCAD broke key support level 0.8800
Likely to fall to support level 0.8700
AUDCAD under the bearish pressure after the price broke the key support level 0.8800 (which stopped the previous sharp downward impulse wave (1) at the end of May).
The breakout of the support level 0.8800 should accelerate the active intermediate impulse wave (3).
Given the clear multi-month downtrend, AUDCAD can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 0.8700.
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#AUDCAD broke key support level 0.8800
Likely to fall to support level 0.8700
AUDCAD under the bearish pressure after the price broke the key support level 0.8800 (which stopped the previous sharp downward impulse wave (1) at the end of May).
The breakout of the support level 0.8800 should accelerate the active intermediate impulse wave (3).
Given the clear multi-month downtrend, AUDCAD can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 0.8700.
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The crypto market cap is down 0.75% over the last 24 hours to $1.178 trillion in what looks like cautious profit-taking after rallying from mid-month under pressure from stock index movements.
Bitcoin found support below $30,000 on Monday afternoon and has posted modest gains (+0.75%) since the start of Tuesday. Technically, the last pullbacks were to the 76.4% level of the rally of 15-23 June. Such quick and shallow corrections are not uncommon in solid bull markets. But given the pullback in equity indices and the fundamental headwinds (high Fed rates, ample Treasury supply), it is worth bracing for a correction to at least $28.9K and then looking at the asset dynamics to see if the crypto market looks attractive.
According to CoinShares, crypto fund investments rose by $199 million last week, the most since July 2022; the inflows offset almost half of the outflows over the previous nine weeks. Investments in Bitcoin rose by $188 million and Ethereum by $8 million.
Bitcoin found support below $30,000 on Monday afternoon and has posted modest gains (+0.75%) since the start of Tuesday. Technically, the last pullbacks were to the 76.4% level of the rally of 15-23 June. Such quick and shallow corrections are not uncommon in solid bull markets. But given the pullback in equity indices and the fundamental headwinds (high Fed rates, ample Treasury supply), it is worth bracing for a correction to at least $28.9K and then looking at the asset dynamics to see if the crypto market looks attractive.
According to CoinShares, crypto fund investments rose by $199 million last week, the most since July 2022; the inflows offset almost half of the outflows over the previous nine weeks. Investments in Bitcoin rose by $188 million and Ethereum by $8 million.
#Silver's Golden Cross points to bright prospects
Silver fell sharply last week but has recently shown encouraging signs of recovery. The tactical objectives of silver's decline appear to have been achieved, and silver is now in demand, reinforcing confidence that the bulls have defended the long-term uptrend.
Last week, silver lost over 8.5% from Monday's high to Friday's low. This appeared to be the final chord of the sellers, followed by a tidy comeback by the buyers on Friday afternoon. Notably, this uptrend is going against the downtrends in other risk-sensitive markets.
Silver fell sharply last week but has recently shown encouraging signs of recovery. The tactical objectives of silver's decline appear to have been achieved, and silver is now in demand, reinforcing confidence that the bulls have defended the long-term uptrend.
Last week, silver lost over 8.5% from Monday's high to Friday's low. This appeared to be the final chord of the sellers, followed by a tidy comeback by the buyers on Friday afternoon. Notably, this uptrend is going against the downtrends in other risk-sensitive markets.
On the weekly timeframe, last week's low was a touch of the 200-week moving average (now at $22.17), reflecting traders' bullish sentiment. Slightly lower, at $22, is the faster 50-week MA. Both are pointing up, indicating a bullish market and the faster one is about to cross the slower one. Such a pattern in technical analysis is called a Golden Cross. It is often seen on the daily timeframe, but very rarely, and therefore can be even more significant on the weekly timeframe.
The closest analogy, in terms of price action and these key averages and fundamentals, was seen in 2009, which preceded the 200%+ rally of the following two years. However, it did not occur immediately after the cross.
The May-June decline also looks like a test of the lower boundary of the upward corridor formed last August. The upper limit is now at $26.6 and will rise to $29 by the end of the year.
The closest analogy, in terms of price action and these key averages and fundamentals, was seen in 2009, which preceded the 200%+ rally of the following two years. However, it did not occur immediately after the cross.
The May-June decline also looks like a test of the lower boundary of the upward corridor formed last August. The upper limit is now at $26.6 and will rise to $29 by the end of the year.
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On the daily timeframe, the local picture is bullish. Silver quickly managed to get back above its 200-day MA, and with the price touching $23.0 on Tuesday morning, the question arises as to whether the recent rally is a bounce as part of a broader decline.
Separately, on the same daily timeframe, we note the divergence between the RSI and the silver price: lower price lows in June correspond to higher index lows. This suggests that the downward momentum is waning. The RSI has not even reached an oversold level for the second time.
If our view on silver is correct, we should see a return to the flat 24s and above and a repeat of the local highs at $26 before the end of the summer.
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Separately, on the same daily timeframe, we note the divergence between the RSI and the silver price: lower price lows in June correspond to higher index lows. This suggests that the downward momentum is waning. The RSI has not even reached an oversold level for the second time.
If our view on silver is correct, we should see a return to the flat 24s and above and a repeat of the local highs at $26 before the end of the summer.
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Yen hopes for FX intervention
The Yen has been under pressure, losing 3.5% against the Dollar and over 5.6% against the Euro since the beginning of the month. The EURJPY has risen to its highest level since September 2008. The USDJPY is trading above 143.50, where the intervention took it in October and November last year, and close to the 1998 turning point.
The yen's sharp weakness and proximity to historical highs have traders pricing in the likelihood that the central bank will intervene at the behest of the Ministry of Finance to strengthen the exchange rate. However, the nominal exchange rate means little to the government and the central bank, so the focus is on economic indicators.
The most important of these is the Bank of Japan's core CPI. Here we see an acceleration to 3.1% y/y from 3.0% the previous month and a low of 2.7% in February. Although the rate of price increases in Japan is significantly lower than in the US and Europe, there are no signs of a peak.
The Yen has been under pressure, losing 3.5% against the Dollar and over 5.6% against the Euro since the beginning of the month. The EURJPY has risen to its highest level since September 2008. The USDJPY is trading above 143.50, where the intervention took it in October and November last year, and close to the 1998 turning point.
The yen's sharp weakness and proximity to historical highs have traders pricing in the likelihood that the central bank will intervene at the behest of the Ministry of Finance to strengthen the exchange rate. However, the nominal exchange rate means little to the government and the central bank, so the focus is on economic indicators.
The most important of these is the Bank of Japan's core CPI. Here we see an acceleration to 3.1% y/y from 3.0% the previous month and a low of 2.7% in February. Although the rate of price increases in Japan is significantly lower than in the US and Europe, there are no signs of a peak.