What is surprising is the continued slowdown in producer prices. Producer input prices in May were 0.5% higher than a year earlier but weaker than the 1.2% expected and last month's 4.2%. Producer selling prices rose by 2.9%, against expectations of 3.6% and the previous month's 5.2%. Over the month, prices are down 1.5% and 0.5%, respectively, but retailers continue to pass on the gains in final prices.
This is a very important inflation report ahead of the Bank of England's interest rate decision tomorrow.
Markets have priced in a 25-point rise to 4.75%. It is unlikely that the central bank will dare to surprise with a sharper tightening. However, it would be worth bracing for more hawkish rhetoric suggesting that the hikes are far from over. This could be a bullish signal for the GBP, but to maintain the uptrend in GBPUSD, the Bank of England will have to signal that its final rate level will be higher than that of the Fed.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
This is a very important inflation report ahead of the Bank of England's interest rate decision tomorrow.
Markets have priced in a 25-point rise to 4.75%. It is unlikely that the central bank will dare to surprise with a sharper tightening. However, it would be worth bracing for more hawkish rhetoric suggesting that the hikes are far from over. This could be a bullish signal for the GBP, but to maintain the uptrend in GBPUSD, the Bank of England will have to signal that its final rate level will be higher than that of the Fed.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
#WaveAnalysis
#EURAUD broke round resistance level 1.6000
Likely to rise to resistance level 1.6300
EURAUD currency pair recently broke the round resistance level 1.6000, former strong support from April of last year.
The breakout of the resistance level 1.6000 accelerated the active short-term correction 2.
Given the strongly bearish AUD sentiment seen across the FX markets today, EURAUD can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 1.6300 (target price for the completion of the active correction 2).
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
#EURAUD broke round resistance level 1.6000
Likely to rise to resistance level 1.6300
EURAUD currency pair recently broke the round resistance level 1.6000, former strong support from April of last year.
The breakout of the resistance level 1.6000 accelerated the active short-term correction 2.
Given the strongly bearish AUD sentiment seen across the FX markets today, EURAUD can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 1.6300 (target price for the completion of the active correction 2).
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
👍1
#WaveAnalysis
Boeing (#BA) reversed from powerful resistance level 220.00
Likely to fall to support level 200.40
Boeing recently reversed down from the powerful resistance level 220.00, which is the upper border of the sideways price range inside which the price has been trading from February.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 220.00 started the active short-term correction (iv).
Given the strength of the resistance level 220.00, Boeing can be expected to fall further to the next support level 200.40 (low of the daily Hammer from the start of this month).
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
Boeing (#BA) reversed from powerful resistance level 220.00
Likely to fall to support level 200.40
Boeing recently reversed down from the powerful resistance level 220.00, which is the upper border of the sideways price range inside which the price has been trading from February.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 220.00 started the active short-term correction (iv).
Given the strength of the resistance level 220.00, Boeing can be expected to fall further to the next support level 200.40 (low of the daily Hammer from the start of this month).
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
👍1
The crypto market has gained another 3.9% in the past 24 hours, reaching a capitalisation of $1.18 trillion. It has diverged from the stock indices, which have fallen sharply in the previous days due to expectations of a rate hike.
#Bitcoin has surged more than 15% in two days, revisiting the area of April highs just above 30k. However, this is where the recovery has paused.
Bitcoin needs to consolidate a bit before it can resume its ascent. Moreover, there are doubts that the cryptocurrency rally will continue soon, as the stock indices create a challenging environment for risk-sensitive assets across the board.
The technical targets for the BTCUSD correction are the 29.3 and 28.5 levels, 76.4% and 61.8% of the latest rally, respectively. If the decline is halted at either of these levels, we could expect new multi-month highs soon.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
#Bitcoin has surged more than 15% in two days, revisiting the area of April highs just above 30k. However, this is where the recovery has paused.
Bitcoin needs to consolidate a bit before it can resume its ascent. Moreover, there are doubts that the cryptocurrency rally will continue soon, as the stock indices create a challenging environment for risk-sensitive assets across the board.
The technical targets for the BTCUSD correction are the 29.3 and 28.5 levels, 76.4% and 61.8% of the latest rally, respectively. If the decline is halted at either of these levels, we could expect new multi-month highs soon.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
👍2
The Bank of England’s expected surprise
The Bank of England raised its key rate by 50bp to 5.00% - a sharper move than analysts who had made their forecasts earlier in the week had expected. However, it's a logical move, given that the latest inflation data from the previous day exceeded both market expectations and the Bank's forecasts. We should have expected a tougher stance from the central bank, given the persistently high inflation in the UK.
In a companion commentary, the Bank of England acknowledged the secondary inflationary effects, from external shocks to rising service prices, solid consumer demand and a tight labour market. The forced cooling of the economy is a classic monetary policy response to the last two problems: developed country central banks are tightening policy to fight inflation until they get enough evidence of cooling final demand.
The Bank of England raised its key rate by 50bp to 5.00% - a sharper move than analysts who had made their forecasts earlier in the week had expected. However, it's a logical move, given that the latest inflation data from the previous day exceeded both market expectations and the Bank's forecasts. We should have expected a tougher stance from the central bank, given the persistently high inflation in the UK.
In a companion commentary, the Bank of England acknowledged the secondary inflationary effects, from external shocks to rising service prices, solid consumer demand and a tight labour market. The forced cooling of the economy is a classic monetary policy response to the last two problems: developed country central banks are tightening policy to fight inflation until they get enough evidence of cooling final demand.
The market reaction to the rate surprise deserves a separate mention. GBPUSD jumped 60 pips up to 1.2840 and fell 100 pips down to 1.2740 within 10 minutes of the decision being published.
This was obviously due to the trading robots working off the news headlines but ran into resistance from the sellers near the highs at last week's close. However, the pound soon stabilised near the day’s opening levels, as markets saw the latest decision consistent with the available economic data.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
This was obviously due to the trading robots working off the news headlines but ran into resistance from the sellers near the highs at last week's close. However, the pound soon stabilised near the day’s opening levels, as markets saw the latest decision consistent with the available economic data.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
#WaveAnalysis
#CADJPY broke resistance level 107.60
Likely to rise to resistance level 110.
CADJPY under the bullish pressure after the earlier breakout of the resistance level 107.60, which stopped the previous minor impulse wave (i) earlier this month.
The breakout of the resistance level 107.60 accelerated the active short-term impulse wave 5 pf the intermediate impulse sequence (C) from the start of May.
Given the prevailing daily uptrend , CADJPY can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 110.00 (target for the completion of the active impulse sequence (C).
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
#CADJPY broke resistance level 107.60
Likely to rise to resistance level 110.
CADJPY under the bullish pressure after the earlier breakout of the resistance level 107.60, which stopped the previous minor impulse wave (i) earlier this month.
The breakout of the resistance level 107.60 accelerated the active short-term impulse wave 5 pf the intermediate impulse sequence (C) from the start of May.
Given the prevailing daily uptrend , CADJPY can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 110.00 (target for the completion of the active impulse sequence (C).
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
Crypto market cap has adjusted 0.65% in the past 24 hours to 1.17 trillion, remaining near the highs since early May. The correction is primarily due to a 0.55% dollar strengthening over the same period. The current dynamic is still a halt after a 16% rally but not a correction.
#Bitcoin is frozen at $30K, a significant technical level. These levels were pivotal for the first cryptocurrency in April, and last May, it took more than a month for the bears to sell the rate lower. Also, a furious part of the crypto rally started from this level in early 2021. It's worth being prepared for quite a long consolidation, but this week's bullish breakout suggests that long-term investors have already moved to accumulate Bitcoin on drawdowns.
#Ethereum's dynamics are settling into a general uptrend channel with buying on downturns, roughly repeating the dynamics we've seen for 2019 and 2020. It could take months before a FOMO rally.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
#Bitcoin is frozen at $30K, a significant technical level. These levels were pivotal for the first cryptocurrency in April, and last May, it took more than a month for the bears to sell the rate lower. Also, a furious part of the crypto rally started from this level in early 2021. It's worth being prepared for quite a long consolidation, but this week's bullish breakout suggests that long-term investors have already moved to accumulate Bitcoin on drawdowns.
#Ethereum's dynamics are settling into a general uptrend channel with buying on downturns, roughly repeating the dynamics we've seen for 2019 and 2020. It could take months before a FOMO rally.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
The Euro suffered a setback after the June PMIs revealed a slowdown in economic activity. Analysts were caught off guard by the contraction in French services, which dropped from 52.5 to 48.0 - far below the forecast of 52.2. Manufacturing also disappointed, staying below 50 for the tenth time in twelve months.
Germany followed with a grim report, showing a sharp decline in both manufacturing and services. The manufacturing PMI plunged from 43.2 to 41.0 (43.6 expected), and the services PMI slipped from 57.2 to 54.1 (56.3 expected).
These poor results weighed on the euro zone’s overall performance, where the composite business activity index fell to 50.3, its lowest level since January. The manufacturing PMI came in at 43.6, signalling a severe contraction in the region’s economy soon. Apart from the Covid dip, it has only been lower between October 2008 and May 2009, when the economy shrank by more than 5%. Although the current situation is not as dire, fears are mounting.
Germany followed with a grim report, showing a sharp decline in both manufacturing and services. The manufacturing PMI plunged from 43.2 to 41.0 (43.6 expected), and the services PMI slipped from 57.2 to 54.1 (56.3 expected).
These poor results weighed on the euro zone’s overall performance, where the composite business activity index fell to 50.3, its lowest level since January. The manufacturing PMI came in at 43.6, signalling a severe contraction in the region’s economy soon. Apart from the Covid dip, it has only been lower between October 2008 and May 2009, when the economy shrank by more than 5%. Although the current situation is not as dire, fears are mounting.
The #EURUSD lost around 1.5% in less than a day after touching 1.10 in the middle of the European session on Thursday. It accelerated as it broke below 1.0920 on Friday morning following the release of the Eurozone PMI estimates.
Intraday, the EURUSD is hovering around its 50-day moving average. If it can hold above this level in the coming days, it could attract active buyers and further push the pair to test previous highs above 1.1070. However, weak macroeconomic data and dwindling risk appetite in global markets increase the odds of a downward move, at least to the lower border of the rising channel at 1.0700 or further to the previous local lows at 1.0550.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
Intraday, the EURUSD is hovering around its 50-day moving average. If it can hold above this level in the coming days, it could attract active buyers and further push the pair to test previous highs above 1.1070. However, weak macroeconomic data and dwindling risk appetite in global markets increase the odds of a downward move, at least to the lower border of the rising channel at 1.0700 or further to the previous local lows at 1.0550.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
👍3🤩1
#WaveAnalysis
#USDJPY broke resistance level 142.00
– Likely to rise to resistance level 145.00
USDJPY recently broke above the resistance level 142.00, former top of the minor correction (4) from last November.
The breakout of the resistance level 142.00 coincided with the breakout of the wide daily up channel from January – which accelerated active short-term impulse wave 3.
Given the strong daily uptrend, USDJPY can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 145.00 (forecast price for the completion of the active impulse 3).
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
#USDJPY broke resistance level 142.00
– Likely to rise to resistance level 145.00
USDJPY recently broke above the resistance level 142.00, former top of the minor correction (4) from last November.
The breakout of the resistance level 142.00 coincided with the breakout of the wide daily up channel from January – which accelerated active short-term impulse wave 3.
Given the strong daily uptrend, USDJPY can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 145.00 (forecast price for the completion of the active impulse 3).
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
#WaveAnalysis
#AUDNZD under bearish pressure
– Likely to fall to support level 1.0800
AUDNZD currency pair under the bearish pressure after the pair broke the support level 1.090 , low of the Bullish Engulfing from the start of this month, former monthly high from April.
The breakout of the support level 1.090 accelerated active short-term corrective wave 2.
Given the strongly bearish AUD sentiment, AUDNZD can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 1.0800 (50% Fibonacci correction of the previous impulse wave 1).
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
#AUDNZD under bearish pressure
– Likely to fall to support level 1.0800
AUDNZD currency pair under the bearish pressure after the pair broke the support level 1.090 , low of the Bullish Engulfing from the start of this month, former monthly high from April.
The breakout of the support level 1.090 accelerated active short-term corrective wave 2.
Given the strongly bearish AUD sentiment, AUDNZD can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 1.0800 (50% Fibonacci correction of the previous impulse wave 1).
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
#WaveAnalysis #AMZN
Amazon broke resistance level 127.30
Likely to rise to resistance level 135.00
Amazon continues to rise steadily after the price broke above the key resistance level 127.30, which has been reversing the price from the start of this month.
The breakout of the resistance level 127.30 accelerated active short-term impulse wave (iii) – which belongs to the higher order impulse waves 5 and (C).
Given the clear daily uptrend, Amazon can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 135.00 (target for the completion of the active impulse wave (iii)).
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
Amazon broke resistance level 127.30
Likely to rise to resistance level 135.00
Amazon continues to rise steadily after the price broke above the key resistance level 127.30, which has been reversing the price from the start of this month.
The breakout of the resistance level 127.30 accelerated active short-term impulse wave (iii) – which belongs to the higher order impulse waves 5 and (C).
Given the clear daily uptrend, Amazon can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 135.00 (target for the completion of the active impulse wave (iii)).
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
#Bitcoin renewed its early June highs near $31.4K on Friday, but the recent momentum dissipated, bringing the price back to $30.3K. The BTC rally is often attributed to hopes of launching spot bitcoin ETFs, which ease access of institutional capital to the flagship cryptocurrency.
Besides, the technical factors have also supported the crypto's recent march to the North. BTCUSD broke through the 50-day moving average resistance and consolidated above the upper boundary of the descending channel. A bounce off the 200-week MA was an even more critical bullish signal.
Strictly speaking, we saw a bounce and a rapid rise from the lower boundary of the longer-term bullish corridor formed by the November 2022 and March 2023 lows. In the short term, bitcoin will need to cool off after the march, but overall, it has a much better chance of touching the upper boundary at $34.5K within a month than the lower boundary at $26.1K. Despite the bullish outlook, the market needs to cool down in the coming days.
Besides, the technical factors have also supported the crypto's recent march to the North. BTCUSD broke through the 50-day moving average resistance and consolidated above the upper boundary of the descending channel. A bounce off the 200-week MA was an even more critical bullish signal.
Strictly speaking, we saw a bounce and a rapid rise from the lower boundary of the longer-term bullish corridor formed by the November 2022 and March 2023 lows. In the short term, bitcoin will need to cool off after the march, but overall, it has a much better chance of touching the upper boundary at $34.5K within a month than the lower boundary at $26.1K. Despite the bullish outlook, the market needs to cool down in the coming days.
👍1
Oil’s reduced sensitivity to geopolitics
Events in Russia at the end of last week have once again set the stage for a price rebound from the lower end of the range seen in recent months. However, deteriorating global macroeconomic conditions leave us guessing as to 'when not if' we will see a break of support and a move lower.
WTI crude fell to $67.5 on Friday, and Brent briefly traded below $72.5. Previously, oil was actively involved in OPEC+ efforts to cut production (actual or planned) from these levels. This time, the rebound came from reports from Russia.
Data released in the second half of last week noted a reduction in supply, while producers were apathetic. Commercial reserves fell by 3.8mmbd, strategic reserves lost 1.7mmbd, but production averaged 12.2mmbd after a build rate of 12.4mmbd in the previous two weeks.
Events in Russia at the end of last week have once again set the stage for a price rebound from the lower end of the range seen in recent months. However, deteriorating global macroeconomic conditions leave us guessing as to 'when not if' we will see a break of support and a move lower.
WTI crude fell to $67.5 on Friday, and Brent briefly traded below $72.5. Previously, oil was actively involved in OPEC+ efforts to cut production (actual or planned) from these levels. This time, the rebound came from reports from Russia.
Data released in the second half of last week noted a reduction in supply, while producers were apathetic. Commercial reserves fell by 3.8mmbd, strategic reserves lost 1.7mmbd, but production averaged 12.2mmbd after a build rate of 12.4mmbd in the previous two weeks.
Friday's Baker Hughes data highlighted the ongoing trend in drilling activity as the number of active rigs in the US fell by 5 to 682, of which 546 were producing rigs (-6 for the week). This dynamic clearly indicates the lack of appetite for upstream investment at current prices. Theoretically, it looks like a harbinger of falling production and, consequently, higher prices. In practice, however, preparing for a production surge against the highest interest rates since 2007 is hardly prudent.
#WTI and #Brent’s prices have repeatedly tested their horizontal support levels over the past three months. However, each time the rebounds have been less pronounced. With a few exceptions, the oil's movements have been in a downtrend since last July, the upper boundary of which again held last week. This long-term resistance and horizontal support are rapidly approaching each other, promising a final decision on oil's direction soon.
The downward movement of high and rising interest rates and declining economic indicators is advantageous in this battle. However, it is worth waiting for technical confirmation in the form of a break below $72 for Brent and $67 for WTI.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
The downward movement of high and rising interest rates and declining economic indicators is advantageous in this battle. However, it is worth waiting for technical confirmation in the form of a break below $72 for Brent and $67 for WTI.
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
👍1
Anonymous Poll
72%
📈 Bullish
28%
📉 Bearish
#WaveAnalysis
#WTI crude oil reversed from key support level 68.00
Likely to rise to resistance level 72.80
WTI crude oil recently reversed up from the key support level 68.00 (which has been reversing the price from the start of May) , coinciding with the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from the support level 68.00 created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Hammer.
Given the strength of the support level 68.00, WTI crude oil can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 72.80 (top of the previous correction 2).
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
#WTI crude oil reversed from key support level 68.00
Likely to rise to resistance level 72.80
WTI crude oil recently reversed up from the key support level 68.00 (which has been reversing the price from the start of May) , coinciding with the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from the support level 68.00 created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Hammer.
Given the strength of the support level 68.00, WTI crude oil can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 72.80 (top of the previous correction 2).
📣Trade responsibly with fxpro.com
👍2