US markets are closed today for Juneteenth, and some instruments will be closing early.
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👉Please see the full schedule
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The crypto market capitalisation rose 1.5% last week to reach $1.066 trillion at the start of the new week. But it wasn't a smooth ride, as Bitcoin gained 2% last week to end the week down 4% at around $26,500. Ethereum lost 1% to $1730. Other leading altcoins in the top 10 fell between 0.4% (TRON) and 6.4% (XRP). The exception was BNB (+2.6%).
Thanks largely to positive equity market traction, bitcoin found support on the downside below $25K and formally closed above its 200-week average. The market was near the upper end of the downside range on the smaller timeframes. Given the overbought equity market, more downside risks could push BTCUSD lower, leaving it within the bearish trend. Only a rally above $27.2K - the area of previous local highs and the 50-day moving average - can effectively break this trend.
According to Bloomberg, Bitcoin's share of the total market value of all cryptocurrencies has reached its highest level since mid-autumn 2021.
Thanks largely to positive equity market traction, bitcoin found support on the downside below $25K and formally closed above its 200-week average. The market was near the upper end of the downside range on the smaller timeframes. Given the overbought equity market, more downside risks could push BTCUSD lower, leaving it within the bearish trend. Only a rally above $27.2K - the area of previous local highs and the 50-day moving average - can effectively break this trend.
According to Bloomberg, Bitcoin's share of the total market value of all cryptocurrencies has reached its highest level since mid-autumn 2021.
Oil: Short-term bounce rather than new bull market
Oil ended last week with growth, having found support at key price levels, but unlikely for long.
Last week, WTI tested its 200-week moving average for the fifth time since the beginning of the year but managed to bounce back from this level. Accumulated oversold conditions in oil on the intraday timeframe and hopes of demand stimulus in China worked in favour of the bulls at the start of the week. In the second half of the week, a falling dollar and demand for equities supported interest in risk assets, including oil.
In addition, it was easy to see the desire of OPEC+ to push oil prices higher by threatening supply shortages. It is essential to realise that we have been hearing such comments for years and that this has kept oil from experiencing substantial price swings.
Oil ended last week with growth, having found support at key price levels, but unlikely for long.
Last week, WTI tested its 200-week moving average for the fifth time since the beginning of the year but managed to bounce back from this level. Accumulated oversold conditions in oil on the intraday timeframe and hopes of demand stimulus in China worked in favour of the bulls at the start of the week. In the second half of the week, a falling dollar and demand for equities supported interest in risk assets, including oil.
In addition, it was easy to see the desire of OPEC+ to push oil prices higher by threatening supply shortages. It is essential to realise that we have been hearing such comments for years and that this has kept oil from experiencing substantial price swings.
Weekly data from the US showed that production rose for the second consecutive week to 12.4M BPD, the highest level since April 2020. Commercial inventories rose by 7.9M barrels (+11% y/y). As the driving season approaches, we will likely see a short-term increase in production and inventories.
At the same time, oil leaks from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which lost another 1.9M barrels that week, down 45% from its plateau just over two years ago with a slightly higher price than in May 2021.
Friday's weekly data on the number of rigs in operation continued to point to a decline in activity in the sector in the US. The total number (Oil+Gas) fell by seven units to 687, and the number of oil rigs fell to 552 (-4). In both cases, this is the lowest level since April 2022. So far, this decline has not hindered production growth, but it indicates caution on the part of industry participants and keeps oil production well below the maximum of 13.1M BPD we saw in March 2020.
At the same time, oil leaks from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which lost another 1.9M barrels that week, down 45% from its plateau just over two years ago with a slightly higher price than in May 2021.
Friday's weekly data on the number of rigs in operation continued to point to a decline in activity in the sector in the US. The total number (Oil+Gas) fell by seven units to 687, and the number of oil rigs fell to 552 (-4). In both cases, this is the lowest level since April 2022. So far, this decline has not hindered production growth, but it indicates caution on the part of industry participants and keeps oil production well below the maximum of 13.1M BPD we saw in March 2020.
Technically, a rebound in oil may not face headwinds until $74 for WTI and $78.5 for Brent, a significant area of resistance that has previously acted as support. The next more rigid resistance is 78 for WTI and 83.5 for Brent, around the 200-day (50-week) moving average. A move higher would reclassify the current rally as a bullish reversal, but slowing global demand on the back of high-interest rates makes it worthwhile to remain cautious in the longer term.
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#WaveAnalysis
#EURAUD reversed from support level 1.5855
Likely to rise to resistance level 1.6045
EURAUD currency pair recently reversed up from the key support level 1.5855 (former support from March), strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band and by the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from February.
The upward reversal from the support level 1.5855 started the active corrective wave 3.
Given the still oversold daily Stochastic, EURAUD can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 1.6045, former support from April.
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#EURAUD reversed from support level 1.5855
Likely to rise to resistance level 1.6045
EURAUD currency pair recently reversed up from the key support level 1.5855 (former support from March), strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band and by the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from February.
The upward reversal from the support level 1.5855 started the active corrective wave 3.
Given the still oversold daily Stochastic, EURAUD can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 1.6045, former support from April.
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#WaveAnalysis
#NZDJPY reversed from resistance level 88.00
Likely to fall to support level 87.20
NZDJPY currency pair recently reversed down after the pair failed to keep the ground above the key resistance level 88.00 (former multi-month high from last December).
The downward reversal from the resistance level 88.00 stopped the 2 of the earlier upward impulse waves – C and (iii).
Given the overbought daily Stochastic, NZDJPY can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 87.20 (former top of the previous impulse wave A).
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#NZDJPY reversed from resistance level 88.00
Likely to fall to support level 87.20
NZDJPY currency pair recently reversed down after the pair failed to keep the ground above the key resistance level 88.00 (former multi-month high from last December).
The downward reversal from the resistance level 88.00 stopped the 2 of the earlier upward impulse waves – C and (iii).
Given the overbought daily Stochastic, NZDJPY can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 87.20 (former top of the previous impulse wave A).
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Crypto market capitalisation rose 0.8% to $1.073 trillion, close to its level of 10 days ago. #Bitcoin was a major contributor to the rally, rising 1.6% to $28.8K, while #Ethereum gained just 0.4% to $1730. Among the top altcoins, #Solana (+3.5%) stands out, with other altcoins ranging from -1.2% (#XRP) to +1.6% (#Polygon).
For the fifth day out of the last six, Bitcoin has breached the upper boundary of its bearish range and tested the 50-day moving average near $27K.
Although the price has now breached the channel's upper boundary, a break of the downtrend cannot be declared until a close above $27.2K, the previous local high, is achieved. A reversal from current levels offers a downside of more than 10% with the potential for a drop to the 200-day moving average.
Retail traders helped push Bitcoin above $26K, according to Glassnode, which noted an increase in activity from addresses controlling between 0.1 and 1 BTC.
For the fifth day out of the last six, Bitcoin has breached the upper boundary of its bearish range and tested the 50-day moving average near $27K.
Although the price has now breached the channel's upper boundary, a break of the downtrend cannot be declared until a close above $27.2K, the previous local high, is achieved. A reversal from current levels offers a downside of more than 10% with the potential for a drop to the 200-day moving average.
Retail traders helped push Bitcoin above $26K, according to Glassnode, which noted an increase in activity from addresses controlling between 0.1 and 1 BTC.
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#WaveAnalysis
#GBPAUD rising inside impulse wave 3
Likely to reach resistance level 1.9130
GBPAUD currency pair continues to rise inside the minor impulse wave 3, which started earlier with the daily Bullish Engulfing from the support level 1.8525.
The active minor impulse wave 3 belongs to the intermediate impulse sequence (3) from February.
Given the prevailing uptrend, GBPAUD can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 1.9130 (which stopped the previous impulse wave (c) at the end of last month).
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#GBPAUD rising inside impulse wave 3
Likely to reach resistance level 1.9130
GBPAUD currency pair continues to rise inside the minor impulse wave 3, which started earlier with the daily Bullish Engulfing from the support level 1.8525.
The active minor impulse wave 3 belongs to the intermediate impulse sequence (3) from February.
Given the prevailing uptrend, GBPAUD can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 1.9130 (which stopped the previous impulse wave (c) at the end of last month).
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#WaveAnalysis
#AUDJPY reversed from resistance level 97.50
Likely to fall to support level 95.00
AUDJPY currency pair recently reversed down from the resistance level 97.50, which stopped the weekly uptrend in the middle of last year.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 97.50 stopped the previous weekly upward impulse sequence from March .
Given the strength of the resistance level 97.50 and the overbought weekly Stochastic, AUDJPY can be expected to correct down further to the next string support level 95.00.
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#AUDJPY reversed from resistance level 97.50
Likely to fall to support level 95.00
AUDJPY currency pair recently reversed down from the resistance level 97.50, which stopped the weekly uptrend in the middle of last year.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 97.50 stopped the previous weekly upward impulse sequence from March .
Given the strength of the resistance level 97.50 and the overbought weekly Stochastic, AUDJPY can be expected to correct down further to the next string support level 95.00.
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Short-term vulnerability for precious metals
After a very mixed start to June, platinum, silver and gold are moving into a friendly downtrend. However, a technical correction is unlikely to break the long-term bullish trend.
#Platinum has lost over 3% since the beginning of the month, adding to the previous 10% drop from May's highs, to end the month near $960, the lows of the second half of March.
The current sell-off looks like a liquidation of positions for funds focused on the longer-term technical picture. We see increased selling pressure for the third session back-to-back following a break below the 200 and 50-week moving averages (MA). However, platinum has not entered oversold territory, leaving the potential for a decline towards $900, where it has repeatedly found support since late 2015.
After a very mixed start to June, platinum, silver and gold are moving into a friendly downtrend. However, a technical correction is unlikely to break the long-term bullish trend.
#Platinum has lost over 3% since the beginning of the month, adding to the previous 10% drop from May's highs, to end the month near $960, the lows of the second half of March.
The current sell-off looks like a liquidation of positions for funds focused on the longer-term technical picture. We see increased selling pressure for the third session back-to-back following a break below the 200 and 50-week moving averages (MA). However, platinum has not entered oversold territory, leaving the potential for a decline towards $900, where it has repeatedly found support since late 2015.
#Silver is testing support at $23.2 for the third time since early June, following a sharp 3% fall on Tuesday. However, the metal has rallied more than 7.5% in the two weeks since the end of May. The price has reversed and failed to break above the 50-day MA and the 50% level from May. Silver would need to fall another $1 to $22.15 to reach strong support at the 50 and 200-week MA.
#Gold's bounce back to $1931/oz took it back to the June lows and has not been consistently lower since March. The multi-year bullish trend in 2018 was interrupted by a brief dip below the 200-week MA in August-November last year, the period of global central banks' most aggressive rate hikes. This line is now targeting $1860 by the end of the year.
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The market capitalisation of cryptocurrencies rose 5.7% in the last 24 hours to 1,134 trillion. Bitcoin was the engine of growth, but buyers quickly expanded to some altcoins. Bitcoin is up 7.6%, Ethereum is up 4.7%, and the top altcoins are up from a modest 1.9% (XRP) to 9.4% (Litecoin).
Bitcoin briefly topped $29K at the start of trading on Wednesday. In terms of technical analysis, this is an important bullish signal as the price closed above its 50-day moving average and above previous local highs in a sharp move on Tuesday.
This move confirms the breakdown of the downtrend that has been in place for the past two months. The next target for the bulls is the area between the April and May highs at $29.4-$30.4K.
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Bitcoin briefly topped $29K at the start of trading on Wednesday. In terms of technical analysis, this is an important bullish signal as the price closed above its 50-day moving average and above previous local highs in a sharp move on Tuesday.
This move confirms the breakdown of the downtrend that has been in place for the past two months. The next target for the bulls is the area between the April and May highs at $29.4-$30.4K.
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Persistent UK inflation will force the Bank of England to do more
UK consumer inflation is in no hurry to recede. Fresh estimates for May showed prices up by 0.7%, following even stronger rises in the previous three months.
Overall, the CPI rose by 4.2% between February and May. Year-over-year price growth stood at 8.7% in May. And the monthly rate of price increases does not give any hope that inflation is on the right track.
Core inflation continues to accelerate, reaching 7.1% y/y, the highest level since 1992. And this upward spiral is the most dangerous part of the inflation report, which overshoots the period of slowing inflation from January to March.
UK consumer inflation is in no hurry to recede. Fresh estimates for May showed prices up by 0.7%, following even stronger rises in the previous three months.
Overall, the CPI rose by 4.2% between February and May. Year-over-year price growth stood at 8.7% in May. And the monthly rate of price increases does not give any hope that inflation is on the right track.
Core inflation continues to accelerate, reaching 7.1% y/y, the highest level since 1992. And this upward spiral is the most dangerous part of the inflation report, which overshoots the period of slowing inflation from January to March.
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What is surprising is the continued slowdown in producer prices. Producer input prices in May were 0.5% higher than a year earlier but weaker than the 1.2% expected and last month's 4.2%. Producer selling prices rose by 2.9%, against expectations of 3.6% and the previous month's 5.2%. Over the month, prices are down 1.5% and 0.5%, respectively, but retailers continue to pass on the gains in final prices.
This is a very important inflation report ahead of the Bank of England's interest rate decision tomorrow.
Markets have priced in a 25-point rise to 4.75%. It is unlikely that the central bank will dare to surprise with a sharper tightening. However, it would be worth bracing for more hawkish rhetoric suggesting that the hikes are far from over. This could be a bullish signal for the GBP, but to maintain the uptrend in GBPUSD, the Bank of England will have to signal that its final rate level will be higher than that of the Fed.
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This is a very important inflation report ahead of the Bank of England's interest rate decision tomorrow.
Markets have priced in a 25-point rise to 4.75%. It is unlikely that the central bank will dare to surprise with a sharper tightening. However, it would be worth bracing for more hawkish rhetoric suggesting that the hikes are far from over. This could be a bullish signal for the GBP, but to maintain the uptrend in GBPUSD, the Bank of England will have to signal that its final rate level will be higher than that of the Fed.
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#WaveAnalysis
#EURAUD broke round resistance level 1.6000
Likely to rise to resistance level 1.6300
EURAUD currency pair recently broke the round resistance level 1.6000, former strong support from April of last year.
The breakout of the resistance level 1.6000 accelerated the active short-term correction 2.
Given the strongly bearish AUD sentiment seen across the FX markets today, EURAUD can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 1.6300 (target price for the completion of the active correction 2).
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#EURAUD broke round resistance level 1.6000
Likely to rise to resistance level 1.6300
EURAUD currency pair recently broke the round resistance level 1.6000, former strong support from April of last year.
The breakout of the resistance level 1.6000 accelerated the active short-term correction 2.
Given the strongly bearish AUD sentiment seen across the FX markets today, EURAUD can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 1.6300 (target price for the completion of the active correction 2).
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#WaveAnalysis
Boeing (#BA) reversed from powerful resistance level 220.00
Likely to fall to support level 200.40
Boeing recently reversed down from the powerful resistance level 220.00, which is the upper border of the sideways price range inside which the price has been trading from February.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 220.00 started the active short-term correction (iv).
Given the strength of the resistance level 220.00, Boeing can be expected to fall further to the next support level 200.40 (low of the daily Hammer from the start of this month).
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Boeing (#BA) reversed from powerful resistance level 220.00
Likely to fall to support level 200.40
Boeing recently reversed down from the powerful resistance level 220.00, which is the upper border of the sideways price range inside which the price has been trading from February.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 220.00 started the active short-term correction (iv).
Given the strength of the resistance level 220.00, Boeing can be expected to fall further to the next support level 200.40 (low of the daily Hammer from the start of this month).
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The crypto market has gained another 3.9% in the past 24 hours, reaching a capitalisation of $1.18 trillion. It has diverged from the stock indices, which have fallen sharply in the previous days due to expectations of a rate hike.
#Bitcoin has surged more than 15% in two days, revisiting the area of April highs just above 30k. However, this is where the recovery has paused.
Bitcoin needs to consolidate a bit before it can resume its ascent. Moreover, there are doubts that the cryptocurrency rally will continue soon, as the stock indices create a challenging environment for risk-sensitive assets across the board.
The technical targets for the BTCUSD correction are the 29.3 and 28.5 levels, 76.4% and 61.8% of the latest rally, respectively. If the decline is halted at either of these levels, we could expect new multi-month highs soon.
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#Bitcoin has surged more than 15% in two days, revisiting the area of April highs just above 30k. However, this is where the recovery has paused.
Bitcoin needs to consolidate a bit before it can resume its ascent. Moreover, there are doubts that the cryptocurrency rally will continue soon, as the stock indices create a challenging environment for risk-sensitive assets across the board.
The technical targets for the BTCUSD correction are the 29.3 and 28.5 levels, 76.4% and 61.8% of the latest rally, respectively. If the decline is halted at either of these levels, we could expect new multi-month highs soon.
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