#WaveAnalysis
#CADJPY reversed from resistance level 100.50
• Likely to fall to support level 98.00
CADJPY currency pair recently reversed down from the pivotal resistance level 100.50 (which has been reversing the price from the middle of December) coinciding with the upper daily Bollinger Band and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from October.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 100.50 stopped the previous minor ABC correction 2.
Given the strong daily downtrend, CADJPY can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 98.00.
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#CADJPY reversed from resistance level 100.50
• Likely to fall to support level 98.00
CADJPY currency pair recently reversed down from the pivotal resistance level 100.50 (which has been reversing the price from the middle of December) coinciding with the upper daily Bollinger Band and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from October.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 100.50 stopped the previous minor ABC correction 2.
Given the strong daily downtrend, CADJPY can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 98.00.
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#WaveAnalysis
#GBPUSD reversed from key support level 1.2335
• Likely to rise to resistance level 1.2530
GBPUSD currency pair recently reversed up from the key support level 1.2335 (which stopped the previous corrections 2 and (ii)).
The support level 1.2335 was strengthened by the 20-day moving average and by the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from March.
Given the clear daily uptrend and strong dollar sales, GBPUSD can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 1.2530.
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#GBPUSD reversed from key support level 1.2335
• Likely to rise to resistance level 1.2530
GBPUSD currency pair recently reversed up from the key support level 1.2335 (which stopped the previous corrections 2 and (ii)).
The support level 1.2335 was strengthened by the 20-day moving average and by the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from March.
Given the clear daily uptrend and strong dollar sales, GBPUSD can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 1.2530.
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The cryptocurrency market is down 0.6% over the past 24 hours, falling to $1.15 trillion, as we see reduced volatility and attempts to "buy the bottom".
Bitcoin is testing and attempting to hold above its 50-day moving average on Monday and Tuesday. As it does so, we, for now, see some reduced volatility and attempts to form a local bottom. It could be an attempt to return to buying after a corrective pullback or a consolidation before a new downward impulse.
Regarding technical analysis, bitcoin's correction will only become a new downtrend when the price consolidates below $26.5K, 61.8% of the upside momentum from the March lows and the bottom of last month's consolidation.
According to CoinShares, investments in crypto funds fell by $30 million last week after four weeks of gains. Bitcoin investments decreased by $53 million, while Ethereum rose by $17 million.
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Bitcoin is testing and attempting to hold above its 50-day moving average on Monday and Tuesday. As it does so, we, for now, see some reduced volatility and attempts to form a local bottom. It could be an attempt to return to buying after a corrective pullback or a consolidation before a new downward impulse.
Regarding technical analysis, bitcoin's correction will only become a new downtrend when the price consolidates below $26.5K, 61.8% of the upside momentum from the March lows and the bottom of last month's consolidation.
According to CoinShares, investments in crypto funds fell by $30 million last week after four weeks of gains. Bitcoin investments decreased by $53 million, while Ethereum rose by $17 million.
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#WaveAnalysis
#EURJPY reversed from strong resistance level 148.50
• Likely to fall to support level 146.60
EURJPY currency pair recently reversed down from the multi-month resistance level 148.50 (which stopped the previous impulse wave (A) in October).
The resistance level 148.50 was further strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band.
Given the strength of the resistance level 148.50 and the overbought daily Stochastic, EURJPY currency pair can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 146.60 (low of the previous correction (ii)).
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#EURJPY reversed from strong resistance level 148.50
• Likely to fall to support level 146.60
EURJPY currency pair recently reversed down from the multi-month resistance level 148.50 (which stopped the previous impulse wave (A) in October).
The resistance level 148.50 was further strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band.
Given the strength of the resistance level 148.50 and the overbought daily Stochastic, EURJPY currency pair can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 146.60 (low of the previous correction (ii)).
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#WaveAnalysis
#EURCAD under bullish pressure
• Likely to rise to resistance level 1.5090
EURCAD currency pair under the bullish pressure after the price broke the resistance level 1.4923 (which stopped the previous impulse wave 1 in the middle of March).
The breakout of the resistance level 1.4923 accelerated the active impulse wave 3 which belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (5) from February.
Given the clear daily uptrend, EURCAD can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 1.5090 (target for the completion of the active impulse wave 3).
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#EURCAD under bullish pressure
• Likely to rise to resistance level 1.5090
EURCAD currency pair under the bullish pressure after the price broke the resistance level 1.4923 (which stopped the previous impulse wave 1 in the middle of March).
The breakout of the resistance level 1.4923 accelerated the active impulse wave 3 which belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (5) from February.
Given the clear daily uptrend, EURCAD can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 1.5090 (target for the completion of the active impulse wave 3).
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#Bitcoin's rally accelerated late Wednesday after hitting $29K but ran into strong resistance as it approached $30K (the level passed on some exchanges). The inability to break above this level triggered a massive wave of capitulation. It quickly, but not for long, pushed the price back to $27K, the price at the start of the week. By Thursday morning, buying prevailed again, returning the price to $29K.
On a broader picture, the bulls have managed to push the price above the 50-day moving average, which is pointing up from $27K on Monday to $27.4K. At the end of March, the market bought Bitcoin near this level. In other words, we have strong indications that the first cryptocurrency maintains its uptrend.
Financial news is also helping the buying. The rally comes on the heels of reports of the stock collapse of troubled First Republic Bank, which was bailed out in March. Another bout of capital preservation fears has brought attention back to crypto.
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On a broader picture, the bulls have managed to push the price above the 50-day moving average, which is pointing up from $27K on Monday to $27.4K. At the end of March, the market bought Bitcoin near this level. In other words, we have strong indications that the first cryptocurrency maintains its uptrend.
Financial news is also helping the buying. The rally comes on the heels of reports of the stock collapse of troubled First Republic Bank, which was bailed out in March. Another bout of capital preservation fears has brought attention back to crypto.
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A gold bull cycle is not over yet
Gold has flirted with $2000 three times in the last three years. This time, however, it is more likely that the bulls will soon be able to hold higher for longer, as gold's rally now has a slightly different character.
In 2020, interest in gold was an investor response to unprecedented monetary and fiscal easing. When the price reached the psychologically important $2000 level, the gold rally was more than 70% of the cycle low.
The rally's most furious phase began when gold broke through significant resistance at $1800, but the new buying potential was largely exhausted. As a result, the liquidation of short positions that saw gold rewrite its all-time high at $2075 was followed by a prolonged period of profit-taking, despite the continued rally in other risky assets.
Gold has flirted with $2000 three times in the last three years. This time, however, it is more likely that the bulls will soon be able to hold higher for longer, as gold's rally now has a slightly different character.
In 2020, interest in gold was an investor response to unprecedented monetary and fiscal easing. When the price reached the psychologically important $2000 level, the gold rally was more than 70% of the cycle low.
The rally's most furious phase began when gold broke through significant resistance at $1800, but the new buying potential was largely exhausted. As a result, the liquidation of short positions that saw gold rewrite its all-time high at $2075 was followed by a prolonged period of profit-taking, despite the continued rally in other risky assets.
In early 2022, gold was in demand, first on fears of capital depreciation and soon after on geopolitics, and we saw a rise of over 15% in less than five weeks. It then failed to make new all-time highs and peaked at $2072. A decisive monetary policy reversal by the Fed and other central banks dragged the price down.
Gold bottomed in September-October on signals that the Fed was slowing the rate hikes and that interest rates might soon peak.
We then saw a very rapid return to historical highs - much faster than the other asset classes, which fell in 2022 and bottomed around the same time.
Early last month, we saw a more reliable reason to buy gold – the market's reaction to the banks' problems. Gold gained traction as the end of the tightening cycle approached. Moreover, bank problems leading to economic growth issues are a significant reason for the Fed to turn its policy towards easing.
Gold bottomed in September-October on signals that the Fed was slowing the rate hikes and that interest rates might soon peak.
We then saw a very rapid return to historical highs - much faster than the other asset classes, which fell in 2022 and bottomed around the same time.
Early last month, we saw a more reliable reason to buy gold – the market's reaction to the banks' problems. Gold gained traction as the end of the tightening cycle approached. Moreover, bank problems leading to economic growth issues are a significant reason for the Fed to turn its policy towards easing.
Gold rallied sharply in March, and the market possibly unwound this overheating in the recent 3% correction from the $2048 highs.
The sequence of lower highs in 2020, 2022 and 2023 is worrying. But the series of higher local lows over the past five weeks is worth noting.
Moreover, all this consolidation is taking place at higher levels than in previous similar episodes, reflecting more interest in buying gold.
The historical tendency for the dollar to weaken at a similar stage in the monetary cycle is also worth considering.
In addition to technical analysis, gold buying is also justified by geopolitics, which remains tense and keeps the idea of a move towards supranational stores of value.
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The sequence of lower highs in 2020, 2022 and 2023 is worrying. But the series of higher local lows over the past five weeks is worth noting.
Moreover, all this consolidation is taking place at higher levels than in previous similar episodes, reflecting more interest in buying gold.
The historical tendency for the dollar to weaken at a similar stage in the monetary cycle is also worth considering.
In addition to technical analysis, gold buying is also justified by geopolitics, which remains tense and keeps the idea of a move towards supranational stores of value.
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#WaveAnalysis
#Apple continues daily uptrend
• Likely to rise to resistance level 168.15
Apple recently reversed up from support trendline of the day up channel from March, intersecting with the 20-day moving average and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from March.
The upward reversal from theses support levels continues the minor c-wave of the active correction (ii) from January.
Given the clear daily uptrend, Apple can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 168.15 (which reversed the price earlier this month).
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#Apple continues daily uptrend
• Likely to rise to resistance level 168.15
Apple recently reversed up from support trendline of the day up channel from March, intersecting with the 20-day moving average and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from March.
The upward reversal from theses support levels continues the minor c-wave of the active correction (ii) from January.
Given the clear daily uptrend, Apple can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 168.15 (which reversed the price earlier this month).
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#WaveAnalysis
#GBPCHF reversed from long-term support level 1.1065
• Likely to rise to resistance level 1.1225
GBPCHF currency pair recently reversed up from the long-term support level 1.1065 (which has been reversing the pair from November), standing near the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from the support level 1.1065 stopped the C-wave of the medium-term ABC correction (B) from October.
Given the strong Swiss franc sales, GBPCHF currency pair can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 1.1225.
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#GBPCHF reversed from long-term support level 1.1065
• Likely to rise to resistance level 1.1225
GBPCHF currency pair recently reversed up from the long-term support level 1.1065 (which has been reversing the pair from November), standing near the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from the support level 1.1065 stopped the C-wave of the medium-term ABC correction (B) from October.
Given the strong Swiss franc sales, GBPCHF currency pair can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 1.1225.
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#WaveAnalysis
#USDCHF reversed from support level 0.8860
• Likely to rise to resistance level 0.9000
USDCHF currency pair recently reversed up from the key support level 0.8860 (which stopped the previous impulse wave (iii) at the start of this month).
The support zone near the support level 0.8860 was further strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band.
Given the strength of the support level 0.8860 and the bullish divergence on the daily Stochastic, USDCHF currency pair can be expected to rise further toward the next round resistance level 0.9000 (top of the previous correction (iv)).
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#USDCHF reversed from support level 0.8860
• Likely to rise to resistance level 0.9000
USDCHF currency pair recently reversed up from the key support level 0.8860 (which stopped the previous impulse wave (iii) at the start of this month).
The support zone near the support level 0.8860 was further strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band.
Given the strength of the support level 0.8860 and the bullish divergence on the daily Stochastic, USDCHF currency pair can be expected to rise further toward the next round resistance level 0.9000 (top of the previous correction (iv)).
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#Bitcoin attempted to approach $30K again on Thursday but hit lower highs than on Wednesday, although it didn’t pull back as hard. Notably, the Nasdaq high tech index was up an impressive 2.75%.
Bitcoin continues to form triangles in the short term and has a reasonably clear support line. At the same time, an impressive supply of sellers is preventing the price from fixing above the psychologically important $30K price.
Kaiko points to the increasing correlation between BTC and gold. The cryptocurrency’s dependence on precious metals has grown since early March. The banking crisis and the risks of financial turmoil are scaring investors around the world and causing them to buy up safe-haven assets.
According to CryptoQuant, bitcoin’s leverage ratio has reached an all-time low of 0.195. This reduces the volatility of the spot VC market, which is becoming less sensitive to futures market activity.
Bitcoin continues to form triangles in the short term and has a reasonably clear support line. At the same time, an impressive supply of sellers is preventing the price from fixing above the psychologically important $30K price.
Kaiko points to the increasing correlation between BTC and gold. The cryptocurrency’s dependence on precious metals has grown since early March. The banking crisis and the risks of financial turmoil are scaring investors around the world and causing them to buy up safe-haven assets.
According to CryptoQuant, bitcoin’s leverage ratio has reached an all-time low of 0.195. This reduces the volatility of the spot VC market, which is becoming less sensitive to futures market activity.
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#WaveAnalysis
#Nikkei225 broke resistance level 28645
• Likely to rise to resistance level 29250
Nikkei 225 index rising sharply after the price broke above the resistance level 28645 (which has been reversing the price from the end of August).
The breakout of the resistance level 28645.00 continues the active short-term impulse wave (iii), which belongs to the higher impulse waves 3 and (3).
Nikkei 225 index can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 29250 (target price for the completion of the active impulse wave (iii)).
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#Nikkei225 broke resistance level 28645
• Likely to rise to resistance level 29250
Nikkei 225 index rising sharply after the price broke above the resistance level 28645 (which has been reversing the price from the end of August).
The breakout of the resistance level 28645.00 continues the active short-term impulse wave (iii), which belongs to the higher impulse waves 3 and (3).
Nikkei 225 index can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 29250 (target price for the completion of the active impulse wave (iii)).
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#WaveAnalysis
#EURGBP under bearish pressure
• Likely to fall to support level 0.8740
EURGBP falling strongly after the price reversed down from the key resistance level 0.8860 (which has been reversing the price from March) standing near the upper daily Bollinger Band.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 0.8860 created the daily candlesticks reversal pattern Bearish Engulfing.
EURGBP can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 0.8740 (which has been reversing the price from January).
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#EURGBP under bearish pressure
• Likely to fall to support level 0.8740
EURGBP falling strongly after the price reversed down from the key resistance level 0.8860 (which has been reversing the price from March) standing near the upper daily Bollinger Band.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 0.8860 created the daily candlesticks reversal pattern Bearish Engulfing.
EURGBP can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 0.8740 (which has been reversing the price from January).
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#WaveAnalysis
#GBPAUD under bullish pressure
• Likely to rise to resistance level 1.9200
GBPAUD under the bullish pressure after the price broke the resistance level 1.8700 (which stopped the previous impulse wave 3 at the start of April).
The breakout of the resistance level 1.8700 accelerated the active minor impulse wave 5 from the middle of this month.
Given the prevailing daily uptrend, GBPAUD can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 1.9200 (intersecting with the daily up channel from February).
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#GBPAUD under bullish pressure
• Likely to rise to resistance level 1.9200
GBPAUD under the bullish pressure after the price broke the resistance level 1.8700 (which stopped the previous impulse wave 3 at the start of April).
The breakout of the resistance level 1.8700 accelerated the active minor impulse wave 5 from the middle of this month.
Given the prevailing daily uptrend, GBPAUD can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 1.9200 (intersecting with the daily up channel from February).
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Market Holiday: Labour Day
🚪Today is Labour Day in the UK and across Europe. Therefore
📈UK/EU stock markets will be closed today, so these stocks and several spot indices are unavailable for trading
🌾Agricultural futures will also be closing early.
💱FX, US Stocks and other markets remain open as usual
👉Check the market holidays page for the full schedule
🚪Today is Labour Day in the UK and across Europe. Therefore
📈UK/EU stock markets will be closed today, so these stocks and several spot indices are unavailable for trading
🌾Agricultural futures will also be closing early.
💱FX, US Stocks and other markets remain open as usual
👉Check the market holidays page for the full schedule
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#Bitcoin approached 30K again on Sunday, from where the selling intensified. The situation looks like the big players are playing games to warm up the thin market over the weekend and early trading hours in Asia, amplifying the amplitude of the move on relatively low volumes.
Worryingly, we have seen a series of declining tops in the last three weeks, and significant downside momentum is building faster and faster.
On the optimistic side, the avalanche of stop orders is not destabilising the market. Bitcoin is starting to buy back quickly as it approaches $28,000, where the 50-day moving average has shifted.
In terms of seasonality, May is considered a relative success for BTC. Over the past 12 years, bitcoin has ended the month up seven times and down five times. The average gain was 29.7%, and the average loss was 15.8%. Meanwhile, the last two Mays have disappointed BTC, with an average loss of 26% each.
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Worryingly, we have seen a series of declining tops in the last three weeks, and significant downside momentum is building faster and faster.
On the optimistic side, the avalanche of stop orders is not destabilising the market. Bitcoin is starting to buy back quickly as it approaches $28,000, where the 50-day moving average has shifted.
In terms of seasonality, May is considered a relative success for BTC. Over the past 12 years, bitcoin has ended the month up seven times and down five times. The average gain was 29.7%, and the average loss was 15.8%. Meanwhile, the last two Mays have disappointed BTC, with an average loss of 26% each.
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Oil has closed the gap but is ready to go lower
WTI oil stabilises near $75 for the third day at the lowest monthly level. The economic slowdown is dragging down the Crude, but OPEC+ coordination supports the market. Oil has returned to a range from which an exit promises to have a dam-breaking effect.
Volatility in oil declined after the market closed a 7% gap that had formed following an unexpected OPEC+ quota cut over the weekend in early April. The current level of around 75 also acted as the bottom of the trading range from December to March.
Oil's decline accelerated in the first half of March, finding support only near $64 as markets began to price in a reversal of the Fed's rate cut. OPEC quota cuts and Russia's voluntary production cuts pushed the price up to $83 by mid-month.
WTI oil stabilises near $75 for the third day at the lowest monthly level. The economic slowdown is dragging down the Crude, but OPEC+ coordination supports the market. Oil has returned to a range from which an exit promises to have a dam-breaking effect.
Volatility in oil declined after the market closed a 7% gap that had formed following an unexpected OPEC+ quota cut over the weekend in early April. The current level of around 75 also acted as the bottom of the trading range from December to March.
Oil's decline accelerated in the first half of March, finding support only near $64 as markets began to price in a reversal of the Fed's rate cut. OPEC quota cuts and Russia's voluntary production cuts pushed the price up to $83 by mid-month.