The labour market situation in the UK is worrying. Claimant counts rose by 28.2K in March, following two months of falls by 21.5K and 18.8K, and forecasts for a fall of 2.5K last month. In a broader picture, the number of people out of work has been broadly stable over the past nine months, hovering around 1,525K. This level was a ceiling for a long time between 2009 and 2013, as the country recovered from the financial crisis. By this measure, the labour market has considerable room for improvement.
At the same time, the unemployment rate rose to 3.8% in the December-February period, from 3.7% previously and a low of 3.5% in the three months to August, as more people joined the job search amid rising inflation and recovery from the pandemic.
At the same time, the unemployment rate rose to 3.8% in the December-February period, from 3.7% previously and a low of 3.5% in the three months to August, as more people joined the job search amid rising inflation and recovery from the pandemic.
Meanwhile, the rate of wage growth excluding bonuses shows no significant signs of cooling at 6.6% y/y, while earnings, including bonuses, have stabilised around 6% for the past seven months. This trend generally indicates a decline in the bonus component and could signal a consolidation of inflationary trends.
Such news has a net positive effect on the Pound, allowing us to expect further interest rate hikes in the coming months. At the same time, monitoring the labour market to see if a rise in claimants is becoming a trend is essential. Sterling traders should also pay attention to tomorrow's UK inflation data, which could either support or reverse expectations of further rate hikes.
Such news has a net positive effect on the Pound, allowing us to expect further interest rate hikes in the coming months. At the same time, monitoring the labour market to see if a rise in claimants is becoming a trend is essential. Sterling traders should also pay attention to tomorrow's UK inflation data, which could either support or reverse expectations of further rate hikes.
US building permits fell 8.8% in March to 1,413K, erasing more than half the 15.8% jump to 1,550K in the previous month. The latest pullback suggests that we saw little more than a short-lived spike in February, and high-interest rates continue to weigh on a market down nearly a quarter from a year ago.
New housing starts fell 0.8% to 1,420K, down 17.2% from March last year.
The housing market is often seen as a leading indicator of the economy, as it points to consumer confidence and influences many sectors of the economy. Since April last year, construction has declined due to rising interest rates and economic concerns. The performance of this sector over the coming months could be an important illustration of what is happening in the US economy.
A further decline will signal deterioration and be a factor against further rate hikes by the Fed. If we see a subsequent recovery in construction and sales, we should be prepared for a tighter monetary policy stance.
New housing starts fell 0.8% to 1,420K, down 17.2% from March last year.
The housing market is often seen as a leading indicator of the economy, as it points to consumer confidence and influences many sectors of the economy. Since April last year, construction has declined due to rising interest rates and economic concerns. The performance of this sector over the coming months could be an important illustration of what is happening in the US economy.
A further decline will signal deterioration and be a factor against further rate hikes by the Fed. If we see a subsequent recovery in construction and sales, we should be prepared for a tighter monetary policy stance.
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#WaveAnalysis
#EURGBP reversed from resistance level 0.8850
• Likely to fall support level 0.8800
EURGBP currency pair recently reversed down from the resistance level 0.8850 (which also stopped the previous wave (a) in the middle of March).
The resistance level 0.8850 was strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band and by the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse (c) from the start of March.
Given the strongly bullish sterling sentiment, EURGBP can then be expected to fall further toward the next support level 0.8800.
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#EURGBP reversed from resistance level 0.8850
• Likely to fall support level 0.8800
EURGBP currency pair recently reversed down from the resistance level 0.8850 (which also stopped the previous wave (a) in the middle of March).
The resistance level 0.8850 was strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band and by the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse (c) from the start of March.
Given the strongly bullish sterling sentiment, EURGBP can then be expected to fall further toward the next support level 0.8800.
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#WaveAnalysis
#WTI reversed from resistance level 82.55
• Likely to fall support level 79.40
WTI crude oil previously reversed down from the resistance level 82.55 (former strong support from October, which has been reversing all upward corrections after it was broken in November).
The downward reversal from the resistance level 82.55 stopped the previous minor correction 2.
Given the overbought daily Stochastic, WTI crude oil can then be expected to fall further toward the next support level 79.40 (low of the earlier correction from the start of April).
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#WTI reversed from resistance level 82.55
• Likely to fall support level 79.40
WTI crude oil previously reversed down from the resistance level 82.55 (former strong support from October, which has been reversing all upward corrections after it was broken in November).
The downward reversal from the resistance level 82.55 stopped the previous minor correction 2.
Given the overbought daily Stochastic, WTI crude oil can then be expected to fall further toward the next support level 79.40 (low of the earlier correction from the start of April).
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#WaveAnalysis
#USDCAD reversed from powerful support level 1.3300
• Likely to rise to resistance level 1.3500
USDCAD recently reversed up from the powerful support level 1.3300 (which has been reversing the price from the middle of November) coinciding with the lower daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the previous upward impulse from August.
The upward reversal from the support level 1.3300 stopped the previous minor correction ABC 2.
USDCAD can then be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 1.3500 (top of the earlier correction (b) from the start of April).
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#USDCAD reversed from powerful support level 1.3300
• Likely to rise to resistance level 1.3500
USDCAD recently reversed up from the powerful support level 1.3300 (which has been reversing the price from the middle of November) coinciding with the lower daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the previous upward impulse from August.
The upward reversal from the support level 1.3300 stopped the previous minor correction ABC 2.
USDCAD can then be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 1.3500 (top of the earlier correction (b) from the start of April).
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#WaveAnalysis
#Gold reversed from major resistance level 2050
• Likely to fall to support level 1953
Gold continues to fall after the price reversed down from the major resistance level 2050 (which is the upper boundary of the powerful resistance zone, which has been reversing the price from the middle of 2020) coinciding with the upper weekly Bollinger Band.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 2050.00 created the weekly Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Shooting Star.
Given the bearish divergence on the weekly Stochastic, Gold can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 1953 (lower boundary of this resistance zone).
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#Gold reversed from major resistance level 2050
• Likely to fall to support level 1953
Gold continues to fall after the price reversed down from the major resistance level 2050 (which is the upper boundary of the powerful resistance zone, which has been reversing the price from the middle of 2020) coinciding with the upper weekly Bollinger Band.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 2050.00 created the weekly Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Shooting Star.
Given the bearish divergence on the weekly Stochastic, Gold can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 1953 (lower boundary of this resistance zone).
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#Bitcoin rolled back to $29K on Wednesday and fell to $28.6K at specific points on Thursday morning. The decline comes in strong impulses as high volumes are released into the market, triggering waves of stop orders.
These impulses are followed by stabilisation periods when trading volume increases as if the big players are gradually absorbing the market as it declines. This could be long-term buying or just liquidity consolidation before a new wave of selling.
Bitcoin is correcting a 58% rally from the March lows to the April highs. If it manages to hold above $28K, it would be a statement of very bullish market sentiment. A full correction to 61.8% of that rally would return the price to the 50-day moving average at $26.7K. And the market dynamics in this area are worth watching, as further declines will doubt the resumption of a sustained bull market in cryptocurrencies.
Trader Skew reported on Twitter that the dump was triggered by a market sell of 15k BTC on Binance.
These impulses are followed by stabilisation periods when trading volume increases as if the big players are gradually absorbing the market as it declines. This could be long-term buying or just liquidity consolidation before a new wave of selling.
Bitcoin is correcting a 58% rally from the March lows to the April highs. If it manages to hold above $28K, it would be a statement of very bullish market sentiment. A full correction to 61.8% of that rally would return the price to the 50-day moving average at $26.7K. And the market dynamics in this area are worth watching, as further declines will doubt the resumption of a sustained bull market in cryptocurrencies.
Trader Skew reported on Twitter that the dump was triggered by a market sell of 15k BTC on Binance.
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Initial jobless claims in the US came in at 245K last week, compared with the previous and expected level of 240K. This figure has been rising since the beginning of the year. It is not a pandemic spike or a sharp increase like in the second half of 2008, when the economy and financial markets plunged.
It is more like the first signs of an economic turnaround, as was the case in 2000 and 2007. These were periods of smooth business cycle reversals, but then things got out of hand.
If inflation is taken out of context, the current labour market picture suggests a weakening of equity indices and a subsequent softening of Fed policy and pressure on the dollar.
Higher inflation complicates the picture considerably as it forces traders to shift their attention from the net economy to how the Fed assesses the situation and how it intends to proceed. As a result, we should not expect a downward spiral in the USD just yet, but the overall trend so far looks bearish.
It is more like the first signs of an economic turnaround, as was the case in 2000 and 2007. These were periods of smooth business cycle reversals, but then things got out of hand.
If inflation is taken out of context, the current labour market picture suggests a weakening of equity indices and a subsequent softening of Fed policy and pressure on the dollar.
Higher inflation complicates the picture considerably as it forces traders to shift their attention from the net economy to how the Fed assesses the situation and how it intends to proceed. As a result, we should not expect a downward spiral in the USD just yet, but the overall trend so far looks bearish.
#Bitcoin fell to $28K on Thursday, losing 2.8% in the last 24 hours. The crypto market is shrinking roughly at the same rate, losing 2.5% to $1.19 trillion.
Bitcoin has completely wiped out the gains since 9th April and gave up 23.6% of the rally from the March lows. It is worth bracing for a more typical pullback of 38.2% from the rally to the 50-day average, near $26.7K. Such a drop promises to fray the nerves of crypto enthusiasts. A break below that level could quickly take the price to $25.6K - the all-important 200-week moving average, the capture of which allowed the bull market to be declared resurgent in March.
Similarly, the #Ethereum exchange rate returned to $1915 when the rally began on the 13th. Significant support is seen in the $1840-1850 area, where the lows of 9th April and the Fibonacci retracement are concentrated.
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Bitcoin has completely wiped out the gains since 9th April and gave up 23.6% of the rally from the March lows. It is worth bracing for a more typical pullback of 38.2% from the rally to the 50-day average, near $26.7K. Such a drop promises to fray the nerves of crypto enthusiasts. A break below that level could quickly take the price to $25.6K - the all-important 200-week moving average, the capture of which allowed the bull market to be declared resurgent in March.
Similarly, the #Ethereum exchange rate returned to $1915 when the rally began on the 13th. Significant support is seen in the $1840-1850 area, where the lows of 9th April and the Fibonacci retracement are concentrated.
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Japan Inflation: Higher than expected but slowing
Consumer price inflation in Japan is in no hurry to slow down. In March, prices rose 3.2% y/y, compared with 3.3% in February and an expected 2.6%.
The core price index excludes food and energy but has not yet peaked, reaching 3.8% y/y from 3.5% the previous month. The last time core inflation was this high in Japan was in 1981. Worse, this index has risen by 0.6% in just one month without any visible slowdown, as we see in most developed countries.
However, the situation calls for patience rather than immediate intervention. The Corporate Goods Price index slowed to 7.2% YoY in March, down from 8.3% in February and a peak of 10.6% in December. We will see the Corporate Service Price index next Tuesday, but the February pace was 1.8%, well within the inflation target.
Consumer price inflation in Japan is in no hurry to slow down. In March, prices rose 3.2% y/y, compared with 3.3% in February and an expected 2.6%.
The core price index excludes food and energy but has not yet peaked, reaching 3.8% y/y from 3.5% the previous month. The last time core inflation was this high in Japan was in 1981. Worse, this index has risen by 0.6% in just one month without any visible slowdown, as we see in most developed countries.
However, the situation calls for patience rather than immediate intervention. The Corporate Goods Price index slowed to 7.2% YoY in March, down from 8.3% in February and a peak of 10.6% in December. We will see the Corporate Service Price index next Tuesday, but the February pace was 1.8%, well within the inflation target.
For forex traders, higher-than-expected inflation is often a reason to buy currencies (in our case, sell USDJPY). However, with the overall growth rate in consumer and producer prices having peaked without active intervention from the BoJ, we should not expect the central bank to warm to raising interest rates now.
This interest rate differential between Japan and the rest of the world is working against the Yen.
From October 2022 to January 2023, the USDJPY gave back 50% of its rally from January 2021. Since then, the pair has returned to the upside. And we expect this moderate uptrend to be prevailing until interest rate cuts begin in the US and Europe.
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This interest rate differential between Japan and the rest of the world is working against the Yen.
From October 2022 to January 2023, the USDJPY gave back 50% of its rally from January 2021. Since then, the pair has returned to the upside. And we expect this moderate uptrend to be prevailing until interest rate cuts begin in the US and Europe.
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UK retail sales weak due to high prices
UK retail sales fell by 0.9% in March, or 1.0% excluding fuel. This compares with a fall of 3.1% year on year. More interestingly, the latest fall fits into a steady downward trend in the retail sales index, which peaked in April 2021 and has lost 9.5% since then.
At the start of this year, there were hopes that consumption had bottomed out, but the latest data cast doubt on this optimism.
Conventional logic suggests that March's high inflation figures are due to a rebound in final demand at the point of sale. But we see the opposite trend. Price rises are more the result of producers and retailers passing on higher costs to consumers rather than the result of excess demand.
UK retail sales fell by 0.9% in March, or 1.0% excluding fuel. This compares with a fall of 3.1% year on year. More interestingly, the latest fall fits into a steady downward trend in the retail sales index, which peaked in April 2021 and has lost 9.5% since then.
At the start of this year, there were hopes that consumption had bottomed out, but the latest data cast doubt on this optimism.
Conventional logic suggests that March's high inflation figures are due to a rebound in final demand at the point of sale. But we see the opposite trend. Price rises are more the result of producers and retailers passing on higher costs to consumers rather than the result of excess demand.
As a result, the British are opting for the economy. As a relatively affluent country, they have considerable room to save on unnecessary and premium goods. The positive effect is that weak retail sales work against inflation, allowing the central bank to ease pressure on interest rates.
On the other hand, this consumer behaviour can easily trigger a self-perpetuating spiral of price and cost-cutting that will weigh on the economy.
This consumer behaviour regarding retail activity and fashion trends suggests a shift in the narrative from conspicuous consumption to cost rationalisation. An example of such consumer behaviour was after the First World War, which contributed to the Great Depression, along with the active use of tariff wars and the fragmentation of the global economy (another sign of the times).
On the other hand, this consumer behaviour can easily trigger a self-perpetuating spiral of price and cost-cutting that will weigh on the economy.
This consumer behaviour regarding retail activity and fashion trends suggests a shift in the narrative from conspicuous consumption to cost rationalisation. An example of such consumer behaviour was after the First World War, which contributed to the Great Depression, along with the active use of tariff wars and the fragmentation of the global economy (another sign of the times).
#WaveAnalysis
#EURAUD reversed from support level 1.6235
• Likely to rise to resistance level 1.6440
EURAUD currency pair recently reversed up from the support level 1.6235 (former resistance from March) coinciding with the 20-day moving average and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from March.
The upward reversal from the support level 1.6235 created the weekly Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Morning Star.
Given the clear daily uptrend, EURAUD can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 1.6440 (top of the previous impulse wave 3).
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#EURAUD reversed from support level 1.6235
• Likely to rise to resistance level 1.6440
EURAUD currency pair recently reversed up from the support level 1.6235 (former resistance from March) coinciding with the 20-day moving average and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from March.
The upward reversal from the support level 1.6235 created the weekly Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Morning Star.
Given the clear daily uptrend, EURAUD can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 1.6440 (top of the previous impulse wave 3).
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#WaveAnalysis
#Nikkei225 reversed from resistance level 28645
• Likely to fall to support level 28250
Nikkei 225 index recently reversed down from the long-term resistance level 28645 (which has been steadily reversing the price from August of 2021).
The resistance level 28645 was strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band.
Given the strength of the resistance level 28645 and the overbought daily Stochastic, Nikkei 225 index can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 28250.
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#Nikkei225 reversed from resistance level 28645
• Likely to fall to support level 28250
Nikkei 225 index recently reversed down from the long-term resistance level 28645 (which has been steadily reversing the price from August of 2021).
The resistance level 28645 was strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band.
Given the strength of the resistance level 28645 and the overbought daily Stochastic, Nikkei 225 index can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 28250.
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#WaveAnalysis
#CADJPY reversed from resistance level 100.50
• Likely to fall to support level 98.00
CADJPY currency pair recently reversed down from the pivotal resistance level 100.50 (which has been reversing the price from the middle of December) coinciding with the upper daily Bollinger Band and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from October.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 100.50 stopped the previous minor ABC correction 2.
Given the strong daily downtrend, CADJPY can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 98.00.
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#CADJPY reversed from resistance level 100.50
• Likely to fall to support level 98.00
CADJPY currency pair recently reversed down from the pivotal resistance level 100.50 (which has been reversing the price from the middle of December) coinciding with the upper daily Bollinger Band and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from October.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 100.50 stopped the previous minor ABC correction 2.
Given the strong daily downtrend, CADJPY can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 98.00.
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#WaveAnalysis
#GBPUSD reversed from key support level 1.2335
• Likely to rise to resistance level 1.2530
GBPUSD currency pair recently reversed up from the key support level 1.2335 (which stopped the previous corrections 2 and (ii)).
The support level 1.2335 was strengthened by the 20-day moving average and by the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from March.
Given the clear daily uptrend and strong dollar sales, GBPUSD can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 1.2530.
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#GBPUSD reversed from key support level 1.2335
• Likely to rise to resistance level 1.2530
GBPUSD currency pair recently reversed up from the key support level 1.2335 (which stopped the previous corrections 2 and (ii)).
The support level 1.2335 was strengthened by the 20-day moving average and by the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from March.
Given the clear daily uptrend and strong dollar sales, GBPUSD can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 1.2530.
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The cryptocurrency market is down 0.6% over the past 24 hours, falling to $1.15 trillion, as we see reduced volatility and attempts to "buy the bottom".
Bitcoin is testing and attempting to hold above its 50-day moving average on Monday and Tuesday. As it does so, we, for now, see some reduced volatility and attempts to form a local bottom. It could be an attempt to return to buying after a corrective pullback or a consolidation before a new downward impulse.
Regarding technical analysis, bitcoin's correction will only become a new downtrend when the price consolidates below $26.5K, 61.8% of the upside momentum from the March lows and the bottom of last month's consolidation.
According to CoinShares, investments in crypto funds fell by $30 million last week after four weeks of gains. Bitcoin investments decreased by $53 million, while Ethereum rose by $17 million.
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Bitcoin is testing and attempting to hold above its 50-day moving average on Monday and Tuesday. As it does so, we, for now, see some reduced volatility and attempts to form a local bottom. It could be an attempt to return to buying after a corrective pullback or a consolidation before a new downward impulse.
Regarding technical analysis, bitcoin's correction will only become a new downtrend when the price consolidates below $26.5K, 61.8% of the upside momentum from the March lows and the bottom of last month's consolidation.
According to CoinShares, investments in crypto funds fell by $30 million last week after four weeks of gains. Bitcoin investments decreased by $53 million, while Ethereum rose by $17 million.
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