#Bitcoin lost ground throughout Monday, falling to $22.5K in early trading on Tuesday, down 6% from its Sunday peak. Total cryptocurrency market capitalisation fell 1.1% overnight to $1.04 trillion, with altcoins easy to find with positive overnight trends.
While institutional selloffs pressured bitcoin, it is still trying to swim against the tide, gaining 0.7% today to $22.8K. On the technical side, the latest pullback is too small to be considered a full-blown correction capable of attracting new buyers to the downside. Bitcoin now has a much higher chance of continuing its slide on profit-taking from the rally since the beginning of the year. These can be as low as $22.1K or even $21.0K. The pull into defensive assets intensified ahead of the FOMC's decision when market expectations and Fed rhetoric diverged dramatically.
According to CoinShares, investments in cryptocurrency funds rose by $117m last week, the highest in six months, with investors focusing on bitcoin.
While institutional selloffs pressured bitcoin, it is still trying to swim against the tide, gaining 0.7% today to $22.8K. On the technical side, the latest pullback is too small to be considered a full-blown correction capable of attracting new buyers to the downside. Bitcoin now has a much higher chance of continuing its slide on profit-taking from the rally since the beginning of the year. These can be as low as $22.1K or even $21.0K. The pull into defensive assets intensified ahead of the FOMC's decision when market expectations and Fed rhetoric diverged dramatically.
According to CoinShares, investments in cryptocurrency funds rose by $117m last week, the highest in six months, with investors focusing on bitcoin.
#WaveAnalysis #Nasdaq
• Nasdaq 100 reversed from pivotal resistance level 12200.00
• Likely to fall to support level 11600.00
Nasdaq 100 index recently reversed from the pivotal resistance level 12200.00 (previous monthly high from December), intersecting with the upper daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from August.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 12200.00 created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bearish Engulfing.
Nasdaq 100 index can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 11600.00 (low of the previous daily Hammer from last week).
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• Nasdaq 100 reversed from pivotal resistance level 12200.00
• Likely to fall to support level 11600.00
Nasdaq 100 index recently reversed from the pivotal resistance level 12200.00 (previous monthly high from December), intersecting with the upper daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from August.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 12200.00 created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bearish Engulfing.
Nasdaq 100 index can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 11600.00 (low of the previous daily Hammer from last week).
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#WaveAnalysis
#NZDUSD reversed from resistance level 0.6500
• Likely to fall to support level 0.6360
NZDUSD currency pair recently reversed down from the resistance level 0.6500 (the previous monthly high from last month, which stopped the previous wave (A)).
The resistance level 0.6500 was further strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band.
NZDUSD can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 0.6360 (low of the previous short-term correction 2).
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#NZDUSD reversed from resistance level 0.6500
• Likely to fall to support level 0.6360
NZDUSD currency pair recently reversed down from the resistance level 0.6500 (the previous monthly high from last month, which stopped the previous wave (A)).
The resistance level 0.6500 was further strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band.
NZDUSD can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 0.6360 (low of the previous short-term correction 2).
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#Gold is declining for the fourth consecutive session, flirting with the $1900 level and $49 below last Thursday's peak. Gold's 2.5% retreat is much more pronounced than the dollar index’s 1% growth over the same period.
The current reversal to the downside is linked to several factors and could be relatively long and deep, although it is unlikely to break the long-term uptrend.
The formal trigger for a wave of dollar buying has now been a pull into defensive assets ahead of a hectic second half of the week, which includes interest rate decisions from the Fed, ECB, and Bank of England, as well as releases on eurozone inflation and US jobs report.
After a rally of more than 20% from the September and November double lows of $1617, a technical correction above $1900 is needed. Accumulated bull fatigue was evident in last week's relatively deep intraday drawdowns.
The current reversal to the downside is linked to several factors and could be relatively long and deep, although it is unlikely to break the long-term uptrend.
The formal trigger for a wave of dollar buying has now been a pull into defensive assets ahead of a hectic second half of the week, which includes interest rate decisions from the Fed, ECB, and Bank of England, as well as releases on eurozone inflation and US jobs report.
After a rally of more than 20% from the September and November double lows of $1617, a technical correction above $1900 is needed. Accumulated bull fatigue was evident in last week's relatively deep intraday drawdowns.
In addition, the RSI has been in overbought territory for two weeks on the daily timeframe and returned to neutral territory below 70 last Wednesday, which often signals the start of a correction. At the end of November, gold lost 3.3% on a similar signal before rebounding.
Gold is also overbought on the weekly timeframe, which has almost always led to a sudden reversal or a prolonged stall in this area.
Now it is worth preparing for a deeper correction as the gains of the past two months have been more significant. The Fibonacci patterns suggest a potential retreat to $1862 if we look at the November-January momentum and to $1822 if we look at a full correction of the entire velocity from the November lows.
The 50-week moving average is also targeting the $1820 area. This is a crucial trend indicator where buyers and sellers will battle it out for the long-term trend. However, it is too early to speculate on the outcome of this battle.
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Gold is also overbought on the weekly timeframe, which has almost always led to a sudden reversal or a prolonged stall in this area.
Now it is worth preparing for a deeper correction as the gains of the past two months have been more significant. The Fibonacci patterns suggest a potential retreat to $1862 if we look at the November-January momentum and to $1822 if we look at a full correction of the entire velocity from the November lows.
The 50-week moving average is also targeting the $1820 area. This is a crucial trend indicator where buyers and sellers will battle it out for the long-term trend. However, it is too early to speculate on the outcome of this battle.
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#WaveAnalysis
#AUDUSD reversed from resistance level 0.7130
• Likely to fall to support level 0.6875
AUDUSD currency pair recently reversed down from the resistance level 0.7130 (previous monthly high from August), standing near the upper daily Bollinger Band.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 0.7130 created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bearish Engulfing.
Having just broken below the round support level 0.7000, AUDUSD currency pair can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 0.6875.
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#AUDUSD reversed from resistance level 0.7130
• Likely to fall to support level 0.6875
AUDUSD currency pair recently reversed down from the resistance level 0.7130 (previous monthly high from August), standing near the upper daily Bollinger Band.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 0.7130 created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bearish Engulfing.
Having just broken below the round support level 0.7000, AUDUSD currency pair can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 0.6875.
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#WaveAnalysis
#Gold broke the support level 1900.00
• Likely to fall to support level 1850.00
Gold recently broke the support level 1900.00 (which stopped the previous waves (4) and 2) intersecting with the support trendline of the sharp daily up channel from November.
The breakout of the support level 1900.00 coincided with the breakout of the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from December – which added to the bearish pressure on the gold.
Gold can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 1850.00 (which reversed the price at the start of January).
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#Gold broke the support level 1900.00
• Likely to fall to support level 1850.00
Gold recently broke the support level 1900.00 (which stopped the previous waves (4) and 2) intersecting with the support trendline of the sharp daily up channel from November.
The breakout of the support level 1900.00 coincided with the breakout of the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from December – which added to the bearish pressure on the gold.
Gold can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 1850.00 (which reversed the price at the start of January).
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#WaveAnalysis
#EURUSD under bearish pressure
• Likely to fall to support level 1.0775
EURUSD under the bearish pressure after the price reversed down from round resistance level 1.1000 , touching the upper daily Bollinger Band.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 1.1000 created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Dark Cloud Cover – which stopped the earlier impulse wave (iii).
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#EURUSD under bearish pressure
• Likely to fall to support level 1.0775
EURUSD under the bearish pressure after the price reversed down from round resistance level 1.1000 , touching the upper daily Bollinger Band.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 1.1000 created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Dark Cloud Cover – which stopped the earlier impulse wave (iii).
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#WaveAnalysis
#EURUSD reversed from support level 1.0665
• Likely to rise to resistance level 1.0800
EURUSD recently reversed up from the key support level 1.0665 (former resistance from December), standing near the lower daily Bollinger Band and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from January.
The support level 1.0665 was further strengthened by the intersecting lower support trendline of the daily up channel from November.
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#EURUSD reversed from support level 1.0665
• Likely to rise to resistance level 1.0800
EURUSD recently reversed up from the key support level 1.0665 (former resistance from December), standing near the lower daily Bollinger Band and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from January.
The support level 1.0665 was further strengthened by the intersecting lower support trendline of the daily up channel from November.
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#WaveAnalysis #SPX
• S&P 500 reversed from support level 4080.00
• Likely to rise to resistance level 4200.00
S&P 500 index recently reversed up from the support level 4080.00 (former resistance from the end of January), standing near the 20-day moving average and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from January.
The upward reversal from the support level 4080.00 created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Morning Star – which ended earlier wave a.
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• S&P 500 reversed from support level 4080.00
• Likely to rise to resistance level 4200.00
S&P 500 index recently reversed up from the support level 4080.00 (former resistance from the end of January), standing near the 20-day moving average and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from January.
The upward reversal from the support level 4080.00 created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Morning Star – which ended earlier wave a.
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#Bitcoin has gained 1.5% in the past few hours to trade at around $22,000. The total market capitalisation of cryptocurrencies rose 2.3% to $1.03 trillion. In line with the Nasdaq100, bitcoin outperformed, falling less and strengthening more.
Once again, we are entering a phase where institutions are the brakes rather than the fuel of crypto's growth. This balance of power is a sure sign of retail investor optimism. However, this sentiment could quickly fade if the sell-off in equity markets continues.
The local technical picture suggests that bitcoin has most likely reached its upside correction targets from the beginning of the year, paving the way to the upside. However, it is worth keeping a close eye on the traditional markets, as a reversal to the downside could send the crypto back into sell-off mode.
Once again, we are entering a phase where institutions are the brakes rather than the fuel of crypto's growth. This balance of power is a sure sign of retail investor optimism. However, this sentiment could quickly fade if the sell-off in equity markets continues.
The local technical picture suggests that bitcoin has most likely reached its upside correction targets from the beginning of the year, paving the way to the upside. However, it is worth keeping a close eye on the traditional markets, as a reversal to the downside could send the crypto back into sell-off mode.
UK CPI fell by 0.6% last month, vs 0.4% drop expected. Annual inflation slowed from 10.5% to 10.1% (10.3% forecasted). The weaker-than-expected data put downward pressure on the Pound, as it eased some pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates.
The Input Producer Price Index was also weaker than expected, falling 0.1% m/m against +0.2% expected for a 0.2% rise and slowing to 14.1% - an impressive slowdown of more than ten percentage points from a peak of 24.6% in June.
However, there is a greater likelihood that UK inflation will be more 'sticky'. The retail price index held its annual rate at 13.4% in January. Producer prices rose by 0.5%, much more than the 0.1% expected.
Due to the base effect, the inflation rate is falling. However, it should be noted that there is still a long way to go to reach the 2% CPI target, as the unemployment rate is low and internal inflationary pressures are building up to replace the external inflation caused by last year's soaring commodity and energy prices.
The Input Producer Price Index was also weaker than expected, falling 0.1% m/m against +0.2% expected for a 0.2% rise and slowing to 14.1% - an impressive slowdown of more than ten percentage points from a peak of 24.6% in June.
However, there is a greater likelihood that UK inflation will be more 'sticky'. The retail price index held its annual rate at 13.4% in January. Producer prices rose by 0.5%, much more than the 0.1% expected.
Due to the base effect, the inflation rate is falling. However, it should be noted that there is still a long way to go to reach the 2% CPI target, as the unemployment rate is low and internal inflationary pressures are building up to replace the external inflation caused by last year's soaring commodity and energy prices.
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#Bitcoin has rallied over 9% in the past 24 hours, returning to August highs and peaking near $25,000. The move looked like a short squeeze following softer-than-feared comments from the SEC. At the same time, we note that the optimism was concentrated in Bitcoin and Ethereum.
The short-term technical picture has become even more bullish. Bitcoin has turned higher after correcting 61.8% of the rally since the beginning of the year and has rewritten previous highs with strong momentum. The next Fibonacci target is at 29,000, which coincides with the consolidation area from last May.
However, the picture on the weekly chart suggests that a serious tug-of-war may be taking place at current levels. A “death cross” pattern forms at 24.9, where the 50-week crosses the 200-week. And the price is now below that cross. History suggests that bitcoin gets stuck near this long curve for many weeks.
The short-term technical picture has become even more bullish. Bitcoin has turned higher after correcting 61.8% of the rally since the beginning of the year and has rewritten previous highs with strong momentum. The next Fibonacci target is at 29,000, which coincides with the consolidation area from last May.
However, the picture on the weekly chart suggests that a serious tug-of-war may be taking place at current levels. A “death cross” pattern forms at 24.9, where the 50-week crosses the 200-week. And the price is now below that cross. History suggests that bitcoin gets stuck near this long curve for many weeks.
After consumer prices, US producer prices delivered another hawkish surprise, adding 0.7% in January, stronger than the expected +0.4%. The year-on-year growth rate slowed from 6.5% to 6.0%, vs the expected 5.4%.
It is worth disregarding the slowdown in the annual inflation rate, as it is due to the high base effect of the previous year, while the monthly increase remains above the historical average.
Producer prices are a couple of months ahead of consumer prices, so today's release is a crucial hawkish signal for the Fed to continue raising rates without letting inflation expectations hang in the balance.
Aside from high inflation, the labour market also needs more reasons to take a breather. Initial jobless claims remained below 200k for the fifth week in a row, complementing the 3% rise in retail sales in January.
Overall, this mix of data suggests that the economy is in good shape. Still, it now risks triggering a reassessment of the monetary policy outlook, which is harmful to the markets.
It is worth disregarding the slowdown in the annual inflation rate, as it is due to the high base effect of the previous year, while the monthly increase remains above the historical average.
Producer prices are a couple of months ahead of consumer prices, so today's release is a crucial hawkish signal for the Fed to continue raising rates without letting inflation expectations hang in the balance.
Aside from high inflation, the labour market also needs more reasons to take a breather. Initial jobless claims remained below 200k for the fifth week in a row, complementing the 3% rise in retail sales in January.
Overall, this mix of data suggests that the economy is in good shape. Still, it now risks triggering a reassessment of the monetary policy outlook, which is harmful to the markets.
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#WaveAnalysis
#Tesla reversed from round support 200.00
• Likely to rise to resistance level 230.00
Tesla recently reversed up from the round support 200.00 (previous resistance from October and November), standing near the 20-day moving average.
The upward reversal from the support 200.00 continues the active primary upward impulse sequence from the start of January.
Tesla can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 230.00 (former multi-month high from October).
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#Tesla reversed from round support 200.00
• Likely to rise to resistance level 230.00
Tesla recently reversed up from the round support 200.00 (previous resistance from October and November), standing near the 20-day moving average.
The upward reversal from the support 200.00 continues the active primary upward impulse sequence from the start of January.
Tesla can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 230.00 (former multi-month high from October).
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#WaveAnalysis
#AIG broke daily down channel
• Likely to rise to resistance level 64.00
AIG recently broke the resistance trendline of the daily down channel from January – which accelerated the active impulse wave (3).
The breakout of this down channel is aligned with the clear multi-month uptrend from last October.
AIG can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 64.00 (top of B-wave of the previous ABC correction (2)).
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#AIG broke daily down channel
• Likely to rise to resistance level 64.00
AIG recently broke the resistance trendline of the daily down channel from January – which accelerated the active impulse wave (3).
The breakout of this down channel is aligned with the clear multi-month uptrend from last October.
AIG can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 64.00 (top of B-wave of the previous ABC correction (2)).
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#WaveAnalysis
#EURCAD reversed from support level 1.445
• Likely to rise to resistance level 4200.00
EURCAD currency pair recently reversed up from the support level 1.423 (previous monthly low from January), standing near the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from the support level 1.423 stopped the previous short-term ABC correction 2.
Given the clear daily uptrend, EURCAD can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 1.445 (previous minor high from the start of this month).
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#EURCAD reversed from support level 1.445
• Likely to rise to resistance level 4200.00
EURCAD currency pair recently reversed up from the support level 1.423 (previous monthly low from January), standing near the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from the support level 1.423 stopped the previous short-term ABC correction 2.
Given the clear daily uptrend, EURCAD can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 1.445 (previous minor high from the start of this month).
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#Bitcoin made a fresh attack on the $25K level on Thursday but failed to hold higher, followed by a local sell-off. The pressure on the first cryptocurrency can be attributed to the situation in traditional markets, where the pull towards defensive assets has increased due to inflation data and comments from Fed officials.
Cryptocurrency investors are reversing the decline below $23.5K, where January's local highs are located.
The short-term technical picture gives the bulls a chance, suggesting a mini correction as part of a new upward wave. However, a daily or weekend consolidation could be a harbinger of a more profound decline, forcing a renewed focus on the still bearish picture in the longer term, where the price remains below the popular 50 and 200-week moving averages.
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Cryptocurrency investors are reversing the decline below $23.5K, where January's local highs are located.
The short-term technical picture gives the bulls a chance, suggesting a mini correction as part of a new upward wave. However, a daily or weekend consolidation could be a harbinger of a more profound decline, forcing a renewed focus on the still bearish picture in the longer term, where the price remains below the popular 50 and 200-week moving averages.
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#WaveAnalysis
#Amazon reversed from resistance level 100.00
• Likely to fall to support level 91.50
Amazon recently reversed down from the round resistance level 100.00, intersecting with the former support trendline of the daily up channel from the start of January (acting as resistance after it was broken).
The downward reversal from the resistance level 100.00 is aligned with the clear multi-month downtrend that can be seen on the daily Amazon charts.
Amazon can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 91.50 (which stopped wave (ii) from the middle of January).
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#Amazon reversed from resistance level 100.00
• Likely to fall to support level 91.50
Amazon recently reversed down from the round resistance level 100.00, intersecting with the former support trendline of the daily up channel from the start of January (acting as resistance after it was broken).
The downward reversal from the resistance level 100.00 is aligned with the clear multi-month downtrend that can be seen on the daily Amazon charts.
Amazon can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 91.50 (which stopped wave (ii) from the middle of January).
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#WaveAnalysis
#GBPCAD reversed from key support level 1.6110
• Likely to rise to resistance level 1.63000
GBPCAD previously reversed once again from the key support level 1.6110 (previous monthly low from January) standing near the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The support level 1.6110 was further strengthened by the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp upward impulse from November.
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#GBPCAD reversed from key support level 1.6110
• Likely to rise to resistance level 1.63000
GBPCAD previously reversed once again from the key support level 1.6110 (previous monthly low from January) standing near the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The support level 1.6110 was further strengthened by the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp upward impulse from November.
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